Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.

Trouble is PP, you get markets on here, and liquidity on here for politics, that you just don't get elsewhere.

I tried to put a bet on NY for the state betting at 1/50 with PP, and my max was £50, similar with California, Hawaii, etc etc........on here, well 5000 @1.04/1,03 is easy, and free money. So there is no option really. Hills & Sky even lower amounts.

I'm more certain than 1.01 I'll be paid out on the President market, it's just annoying isn't it.

There is another exchange option available...

One who paid out long ago on Presidential winner, states, Electoral college totals, popular vote...

I’m sure BF would love to settle this market, I’d guess their projected comission will have stayed pretty much the same over the last week despite the increase in matched bets.
A Georgia recount sounds a logistical nightmare, it’s not lile the ballots are sorted as they would be in the UK, plus those large ballots are great for asking multiple questions, legalise pot? Marry ya sister? etc, but a pain to sift through.

Haven't used my purple account for ages, maybe I should have a look again.

They make you sign some declaration about best execution if you haven't been for a while - make sure that you have standard screen resolution or you won't be able to tick the "I agree" box.

Cheers Dave.

Are people suggesting that
when a decision to settle is
made then bets are placed
Before the button is pressed?

That would be naughty!

They did employ someone who knew how to make these rules so that they could settle asap - hence the CNN rule in popular vote and "projected electoral votes" in the president market. purple simply state "next president" so they can't settle till jan 20th. If BF wanted that they could have adopted the same rules.


Some rules for settlement on the odd
non politics markets have been
written for them, more or less,
by the punters.

Such as next manager markets on football

You only have to look at the odds to understand the uncertainty over states like Wisconsin where Biden is 1.08 to win. Why would Betfair settle it early?

NC on the other hand has been settled because there are no recounts or disputes there and Trump won easily. He was 1.01/no offers to win it. Betfair appear to have been willing to take the risk settling it.

The prices are irrelevant. Everyone else has settled.

Betfair Sportsbook have settled bets on the state of Georgia. Meanwhile Betfair Exchange are still taking bets on the outcome

You only have to look at the odds to understand the uncertainty over states like Wisconsin where Biden is 1.08 to win. Why would Betfair settle it early?

Are you joking?

There are no live suits in nevada and biden one easily, not settled.

won easily ffs

The only company that has not settled is Betfair

Apologies if I missed it....but irony of ironies, has anyone asked Betfair for a market on when the next President Market might be settled?

I do wonder what will tip them over the edge?

I mocked one up myself last Friday and had next week (i.e the current week) as 25/1! Although I didn't have anything for after this week so probably would have had to void; sloppy rules just like Betfair.

I think now they're going to need either a concession or the States to certify and they'll settle one-by-one until it's mathematically impossible for Trump to win based off their settlements.

It's mathematically impossible for Trump to win and has been for some time.

I agree, although I meant in terms of EC votes based of Betfair's market settlements.

A sportsbook is not the same thing as a 'non-seeded' exchange.

Betfair sportsbook can take the risk that Georgia will not be reversed on the recount when it is 15.0 to do just that.

Betfair exchange cannot payout on behalf of all their losing punters on Georgia bets. That would be completely unfair on those losing punters during a recount and/or legal action.

I am amazed some people fail to understand the difference between a sportsbook or a 'seeded' exchange to the Betfair exchange.

It's the same company mate.

frog, Georgia is bad enough but there is no legal challenge/recount in Nevada. It wasn't even flipped by Biden, Hillary won it in 2016. Why aren't Betfair settling that market please?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327956491056279552

Trump admits Biden won.

Nevada has criminal charges against it
The reason nothing is being settled because BF actually watch/read real news
Not the pathetic left wing dross that is wheeled out in the Uk

Release the KRAKEN

Not even Medusa's severed had can save the fraudsters!

Head

Betfair market has been wrong
throughout.

Using it to justify chance of
outcome is exactly what people wanted.

Once again we see polls
are far better indicators,
however flawed they are, than
betting markets.

Betway havnt yet settled  my bet on Biden,they wouldnt allow me £20 at 9/20.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
55m
He won because the Election was ****. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!

Come on Betfair, Trump admits Biden won. Settle those markets please!

Nov 15, 2020 -- 1:46PM, politicspunter wrote:

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump·55mHe won because the Election was ****. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!Come on Betfair, Trump admits Biden won. Settle those markets please!

There is a caveat at the bottom that says Twitter disputes this
Lmfao!!

Lin wood has got this

For state betting...

'Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2020 US presidential election?'

This will not be known for sure until the votes are certified. For a bookmaker or an exchange to settle this before certification is a risk for the bookmaker or exchange.

An exchange or bookmaker is within its rights to decide, when assessing the chance of outcome, if it is willing to payout early.

It is very simple to understand.

NC they have assessed very little chance of a reverse. Maybe Nevada has, in their opinion, a bigger chance of a reverse. The odds suggest/suggested this.

Clearly if one state is reversed the chance of another reversing increases.

Why are people so desperate for an early settlement?

Be patient.

Total drivel. Betfair have already settled 44 of the 50 states.

Because they made an assessment those 44 states are unlikely to be reversed. They were willing to take the risk.

It is not really that hard to understand if you put yourself in their shoes.

Betfair Exchange are not paying out "early". They are later than everyone else in settling including their own Sportsbook.

Betfair are finding themselves
in a very contrived position,
Can't be long now

Tick tock

There is no risk, they just won't pay out.

Go on then Frog, tell me what the "risk" is in settling Nevada please?

In your opinion. The markets tell us otherwise.

If there is NO risk why are the odds for different states different?

Why are they are all not just 1.01 to lay and no offers to back like when a football team is 10-0 up in the final minute?

Markets are wrong

Explain why NC was shorter than Nevada?

He's 1.03 in pop vote..

He was 1.03 to win cali,
And that's settled

1.03 hawaii, ffs, and that's settled

live lawsuits in

alabama
california
north carolina
texas

all settled

Nov 15, 2020 -- 2:05PM, frog1000 wrote:

In your opinion. The markets tell us otherwise.If there is NO risk why are the odds for different states different? Why are they are all not just 1.01 to lay and no offers to back like when a football team is 10-0 up in the final minute?

The prices are totally irrelevant. These markets have been settled by everyone except Betfair exchange. Even Betfair Sportsbook have settled them, the same company.

The settled markets on states
mean they should settle pop vote

But they ain't.. Yet

By your thinking frog, every market has to be 1.01 before pay out, which is clearly not the case, in this or any other market.

People that think markets are perfect
must never ever bet.

Those prices are not irrelevant.

If they were not relevant the NC prices would have be the same as Nevada.

I am amazed that gamblers cannot understand simple probabilities and risk.

I do understand them. There is no risk, none at all.

Btw, was every single state that Betfair Exchange have settled at 1.01?

If there is no risk the prices would be same. You would have backed them all into no offers. If not you some one else would have.

I haven't had a bet on anything since before the election and I certainly don't bet at 1.01 or similar.

Ah, unless you count my tenner on Beverley Callard at 30.0 to win I'm a Celebrity

Someone would have though if there genuinely was zero risk.

Why? Put £100 on at 1.01 to win a pound less commission that might be paid out in a couple of months? You would probably be financially better off leaving it in the bank earning interest.

You will not get a 1% return by leaving your £100 in a bank for a couple of months?

Nov 15, 2020 -- 1:54PM, Timber wrote:

Nov 15, 2020 --  2:46PM, politicspunter wrote:Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump·55mHe won because the Election was ****. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!Come on Betfair, Trump admits Biden won. Settle those markets please!There is a caveat at the bottom that says Twitter disputes thisLmfao!!

It disputes the claims of rígging you plank.

Frog's been sent out to do Betfair's dirty work and is getting a hiding!

Well, you first of all have to weigh up what commission you are paying Betfair then guesstimate when they might pay out?

Maybe I should have said IF they pay out.

I haven't been sent by anyone to do anything.

I am just offering my opinion as to why some markets are to be settled through logic.

If I was in Betfair's shoes I would not be paying out yet on any market where a reverse would cost a fortune to rectify.

Would all the people asking for an early payout be willing to pay the money back if the market is reversed?

Yes.

Without wishing to repeat ourselves......the President market cannot be reversed, because it has already met the rules required in order to be settled.

Betfair cannot possibly pay out on anything other than a Biden win, full stop.

I just wish they'd get on and do it.

The State markets are based on a different set of rules, as per the first post on this thread.

Besides, they are not an early pay out, they are now a late pay out, later than every other company.

Frog, are Betfair in some sort of financial difficulty?

I have no idea. Paddy Power Betfair is a Plc. Look it up if you are worried about it.

The fact and bookmakers have paid out has nothing to do with an exchange paying out.

If the exchange decides to payout they are paying out with other peoples' money not their own.

Different thing entirely.

You have no idea if Betfair are in some sort of financial difficulty? That worries me.

Why does it worry you?

Are they?

Can't see them being in trouble.

I can understand the caution,
to some extent

But having had trump at 250/1
yesterday,i think he's 500/1 now
and that's maybe a bit short.

Can confirm this market has now been settled on the Daq.

764,853,236  Betfair delighted with proceedings

67M traded on 1.05 biden alone. must be a massive record for a particular tick ?

I guess we are looking at December 12th at the earliest and possibly January 6th the latest. When will the limited Wisconsin re count be finished? Maybe that will be the earliest they will pay. No worries. Nice to have something in the bank Sir!

Amazed the Racing Post has not run a story on this.

It is filth of the highest order by Betfair not to make public a position.

they posted this 9 days ago, don't know if it was posted here


Betfair Help
@BetfairCS
·
10 Nov

Hello there! We will wait until there is clarity around any ongoing recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results before we can settle the market.

We will update our blog and social media channels when there is any further news.


and this was posted on their blog

US Election: Betfair market settlement scenarios
Dan Thomas
02 November 2020
2:30 min read
Joe Biden and Donald TrumpA guide on how Betfair will settle the US Election markets
View market
Reddit
There are different scenarios for market settlement purposes on the US Election this week - here's how Betfair will treat them...


1) Settled on Tuesday Night
This is possible but not probable. For this to happen, there would need to be a sizeable win for Joe Biden in Florida, coupled with three or four other key states reporting results faster than is anticipated.


2) Settled on Wednesday or Thursday
This appears more likely than a Tuesday settlement, given the logistics of the counts. Significant increases in postal ballots will, for example, cause counts to be slower than previous elections. Betfair markets would remain active and trading throughout.


3) Contested Result

A contested result includes a legal battle regarding re-count, the Supreme Court deciding the winner and any scenario other than a clean Electoral College vote majority.

This could happen if we see a margin of less than 1% in a key state like Florida, Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nothing would be conceded in this scenario and the projections couldn't be made given the margins involved.

There is potential after a re-count that a result would be determined, but legal challenges would be likely should the state Electoral College total be the balance of power in terms of winning the presidency or not.

There is no way of giving a clear view of settlement time in advance in this case, but these market rules will apply:

"If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled."

Thanks, don’t think we had seen that on this thread but it’s very consistent with what one of their senior politics traders was saying on their podcast from a few days before the election. Shame I didn’t listen to it at the time, actually, as it might have clued me in to the possible trading potential even once the race was basically already over. Even then though, I don’t think I’d have predicted the level of support for the prospect of Trump winning despite being very obviously defeated.

Yes, don't believe for a minute it has anything to do with above, it's filthy.

As States certify results, you'd think the State markets still outstanding would be settled.

Even though this isn't really linked to the "projected" winner. Once Biden hits 270, you'd think the President market would be settled.

That seems logical.

Nov 19, 2020 -- 7:26PM, kevinglass wrote:

As States certify results, you'd think the State markets still outstanding would be settled.Even though this isn't really linked to the "projected" winner. Once Biden hits 270, you'd think the President market would be settled.That seems logical.

It does, but logic has gone out of the window with this market.

I have Biden on 227 so needs 43. Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania should be certified by Tuesday - presume it'll be settled then?

This endless bleating is getting really tiresome. Betfair isn't going to settle the Next President market whilst there is still legal uncertainty over the projected Electoral College winner. Are you people thick, or what?

Have sufficient States certified their election results for us to project an Electoral College win for Biden? The answer is demonstrably NO.

I suspect Betfair will probably wait until all State election results have been certified, because if a single state doesn't certify their results, this could lead to a "contingent election" decision by the House of Representatives - a possibility which Betfair clearly references in the rules.

Lol

Nov 15, 2020 -- 3:26PM, politicspunter wrote:

Frog, are Betfair in some sort of financial difficulty?

Why would they be? In any event, all Betfair client funds are in a ringfenced escrow account.

They are held in an independent trust to be precise. Escrow is I suppose the effect with a market settlement, but the protection comes from the trustees who take no interest in the transaction, they just hold the money.

and also lol to

I suspect Betfair will probably wait until all State election results have been certified, because if a single state doesn't certify their results, this could lead to a "contingent election" decision by the House of Representatives - a possibility which Betfair clearly references in the rules.

"This endless bleating is getting really tiresome. Betfair isn't going to settle the Next President market whilst there is still legal uncertainty over the projected Electoral College winner. Are you people thick, or what?

Have sufficient States certified their election results for us to project an Electoral College win for Biden? The answer is demonstrably NO."

This is what we're talking about, do keep up. Georgia should certify tomorrow, Michigan and Pennsylvania on Monday. That's enough certified projected EC votes for Biden if you include states Betfair has settled as winners.

And time to ramp up the pressure ensuring that they realise that their rules state that faithless electors etc should be ignored.

What legal challenges?

Some people think this is going to be settled in the Supreme Court. It is such a joke it wouldn’t make Judge Judy!

I do think the market will be settled before December 14th. The game is up.

Although I am more than happy for the show to go on. I am enjoying the Chump humiliation. I would like to see more of tucking my shirt in Guilliani and Fredo so Amrika realises these clowns should never ever run for elected office again.

So Georgia has "certified" ....but

"Once the votes are certified, state law allows the Trump campaign to ask for another recount, given the narrow margins. The campaign has until Nov. 24 to make that request"

So no Georgia settlement till at least then.

you think Chump has the money to pay for another recount? The first one was free under law!

This is going to cost the Republicans millions if they do challenge...good.

Dead seabird!

The question is " how and why is this market gobbling up millions every day "?
Are people backing Biden @ 1.05 and hoping to lay @ 1.04 ?

Money laundering.

Russians

There are plenty of people who haven't read the market rules who are laying biden, because they think they will win if he isn't inaugurated on 20th jan. They are being accommodated by people who have read the rules.

Nov 21, 2020 -- 10:44AM, dave1357 wrote:

There are plenty of people who haven't read the market rules who are laying biden, because they think they will win if he isn't inaugurated on 20th jan. They are being accommodated by people who have read the rules.

This is true, staggering how many people on Twitter have not read the rules. One guy posted his page, 2k red on Trump, wasn't aware that the settlement was on projected EC votes and not next President. Two bags lost because they've not read the rules. Astonishing and sad.

not really that sad

It would be a bonkers bet anyway though!

Guess you mean £2k red on Biden though.

Yes, apologies.