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Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?

Charles1980

24 May 19 10:28

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Date Joined: 09 Mar 03

| Topic/replies: 11,778 | Blogger: Charles1980's blog

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Replies: 717

By:

Charles1980 When: 24 May 19 10:28

1.1 now. Free money?

By:

Dragon32 When: 24 May 19 10:41

Not sure of market rules but maybe because May could stay on until a replacement is found which could take a few weeks?

By:

lordnoise When: 24 May 19 12:14

Stays on as Prime Minister but shirley once you resign the leadership - as she will on the 7th June - thats it and shes no longer Conservative party leader ?

By:

Angoose When: 24 May 19 12:24

There was also money to be picked up of the floor for the leave the EU by markets. Just a case of waiting it out and avoiding a miraculous twist in events.

By:

lordnoise When: 24 May 19 12:52

Now 2.58 ceases to be leader in June ? Scratching my head here - sure enough the next Tory leader market is settled once the new leader is announced by the party after the leadership election. Don't see why that should be the case in this market ... she said shes resigning on 7th June not when the new leaders announced.

By:

politicspunter When: 24 May 19 12:55

These types of very short odds markets are best avoided if there is any element of doubt.

By:

Charles1980 When: 24 May 19 12:59

but also worth investing at 3.0?

By:

Libertine93 When: 24 May 19 13:05

Seems clear cut she ceases to be leader of Conservative party on June 7th. Not when a successor is found. Otherwise why bother setting a date at all?

By:

lordnoise When: 24 May 19 13:07

BBC just said - she officially resigns as party leader on 7th June but remains as Prime Minister until the new leader is elected.

By:

lordnoise When: 24 May 19 13:07

BBC just said - she officially resigns as party leader on 7th June but remains as Prime Minister until the new leader is elected.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 14:20

I have been trading this market for ages and have made packets on each 3m of survival. Got into a bit of a mess with the Apr-Jun period Wednesday especially, as kind of expected her to last but obviously speculation was intense that she'd resign. I piling many thousands on to her to leave Apr-Jun at ever shorter odds during and after her statement. Price seemed to bottom out at 1.1 or so, which felt very high for an absolute certainty (my lowest bet was 1.16) and I've progressively taken more on as it's bafflingly got longer and longer. It's been trading between about 2.8 and 3.9 for the last few minutes, having got over 4s earlier on. I'm utterly stumped. The rules sound very clear cut to me. How can May not officially have ceased to be Tory leader once she's resigned? I'm torn between being sure I must be missing something and thinking that most of the market has gone start staring insane. Anyway, I'm currently set to lose 36k if she is deemed to have remained as Tory leader until July.

I can only think that someone has got hold of Betfair to ask them to interpret the situation and some monkey is giving really odd answers. Never seen anything like this. Lots of politics markets trade far higher than they should for absolute certainties. The Euro elections happening was a good recent example as even past the point where they had to happen even if the WA passed (which it clearly wasn't going to anyway), you could still get prices around 1.1. I've never seen something I think should be 1.01-1.02 or so trading above about 1.15 though.

By:

Libertine93 When: 24 May 19 14:24

Stick to your guns fatslogger. May is no longer the leader of the Conservative party on June 7th. Going off the rules of the market, apr-Jun 2019 is the correct result. When they replace her is a separate event. They will have no leader between the 7th June until they find a replacement.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 14:30

May 24, 2019 -- 2:24PM, Libertine93 wrote:

Stick to your guns fatslogger. May is no longer the leader of the Conservative party on June 7th. Going off the rules of the market, apr-Jun 2019 is the correct result. When they replace her is a separate event. They will have no leader between the 7th June until they find a replacement.

That's totally my view and having already cashed out to tiny green (Apr-Jun) and huge red (anything else) from a very nasty looking position once today, I'm certainly not redding again. A braver man than me might back himself all the more. How often do you see a 1.01 shot trading over evens? But then how often do you think that and not be wrong? I've got nearly a quarter of my bank down and I think that's probably enough.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 14:32

Anyway, I'm trading some off at 3.3 and 3 looking to pile on again if it goes up yet again.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 14:36

Now it's back at 2.8 I feel silly for trading any out. Ah well.

By:

mayburydrr When: 24 May 19 15:07

The response I have received from Betfair is that the market will be settled 'when she is no longer leader'. Not helpful...

By:

LuckyAz When: 24 May 19 15:11

I've just contacted Betfair CS to get some clarification on this market & they've been inundated with calls about this market since Mays announcement this morning.

Despite standing down on 7th June Betfair consider her to still be the leader until a new leader is sworn in which will probably be mid to late July according to current news reports which explains the current pricing.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:11

May 24, 2019 -- 3:07PM, mayburydrr wrote:

The response I have received from Betfair is that the market will be settled 'when she is no longer leader'. Not helpful...

Lol, helpful stuff. To be fair, they arguably shouldn't answer hypothetical questions, even ones that look likely to eventuate.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:13

May 24, 2019 -- 3:11PM, LuckyAz wrote:

I've just contacted Betfair CS to get some clarification on this market & they've been inundated with calls about this market since Mays announcement this morning. Despite standing down on 7th June Betfair consider her to still be the leader until a new leader is sworn in which will probably be mid to late July according to current news reports which explains the current pricing.

It would but is a barking mad assessment. How can she still officially be leader once she's resigned as leader? It's not like there's a lack of clarity around the process: she's resigning on a specific date.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:15

I wonder whether they may have to void the market if they've put that out. It really doesn't seem a sane or defensible position but if they've said it explicitly, anyone who acted on it would have every right to be extremely upset if they then settled the market otherwise. Equally, it's not a sane or defensible position that May remains Tory leader once she's manifestly no longer Tory leader.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:21

Rules say (as usual) that in the event of any ambiguity, they can determine how to settle using reasonable discretion and also that it can suspend or void if its not satisfied with the certainty of the outcome.

This is pretty rum, as anyone betting on this market from the time it went down to 1.1 hasn't really been betting on the obvious outcome of the market but on some pettifogging interpretation of what should be clear cut. I'll be pretty mad if I lose tens of thousands on something so stupid. Of course, I didn't have to keep piling money on once I'd gone a little plus on Apr-Jun and the market was clearly wonky but come on.

By:

LuckyAz When: 24 May 19 15:23

Totally agree with you FS, I have been to forced to take a large red position to re adjust my position as like many I read "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?" as when she resigns/fired rather than when will a new Conservative leader be sworn in.

By:

Dragon32 When: 24 May 19 15:40

I do have to agree with you FS and LA, the market rules are not clear enough in that they can be interpreted in more than one way. Something like 'This market will be settled on the date the new Conservative leader is sworn in' would have made it clearer for all concerned.
The fairest thing for BF to do would be to void the market but can't really see that happening as 'fair' goes out of the window for them when lots on commission is at stake.

By:

Dragon32 When: 24 May 19 15:43

*of commission

By:

number7 When: 24 May 19 15:43

I too played market thinking it would be when she stood down,but notice wikipedia has David Cameron as official tory leader up to the date that May took over rather than the day he resigned.I guess they have to go with official date as in their rules

By:

number7 When: 24 May 19 15:47

Its now going to depend on how fast they find new leader

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:48

May 24, 2019 -- 3:23PM, LuckyAz wrote:

Totally agree with you FS, I have been to forced to take a large red position to re adjust my position as like many I read "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?" as when she resigns/fired rather than when will a new Conservative leader be sworn in.

It feels like an unsustainable interpretation from them. Does anyone else remember the market about who formed a government after the 2017 election? They said it hinged on "forming a ministry" and CS couldn't give any straight answers. It dragged on for ages despite May fairly obviously having done so, albeit that negotiations were ongoing with the DUP but she'd chosen ministers etc. Anyway, Betfair really struggled to provide any clarity over the outcome - I think it finally settled after the Queen's speech. This feels even more ridiculous, as at least there you could sort of understand them not really being confident that nothing else could happen instead, especially with the complication that she'd been in office before, so you could just about contend that no new government had been formed. Here, they're giving an interpretation for something that hasn't happened yet but where anyone (including the market at the time of the announcement) would give the opposite interpretation. I think they're very likely to have to recognise that once the Tories confirm that May has resigned as leader, that she's officially not leader of the Tories any more. Clearly my pocket is talking but I mean, if you were to ask Central Office whether May was Tory leader after she resigns, how on earth can the answer be anything other than "no"?

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:50

May 24, 2019 -- 3:47PM, number7 wrote:

Its now going to depend on how fast they find new leader

That can't be before July, unless someone drops out of the run off, like Leadsome did last time. No way they can get votes from members back quickly enough otherwise, even if they sped the thing up from the date they've nominated as the start, which is 10th June, I think.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:55

May 24, 2019 -- 3:43PM, number7 wrote:

I too played market thinking it would be when she stood down,but notice wikipedia has David Cameron as official tory leader up to the date that May took over rather than the day he resigned.I guess they have to go with official date as in their rules

Well, I don't think Wiki is the official source on these things. I guess it would depend on what Cameron said exactly as to whether he remained leader until May took over or not. The point is that May has explicitly said she'll resign. It's possible for the Tory Party to have a brief interregnum with no official leader, isn't it? If she'd said she'd remain as leader while the contest took place (like she's staying as PM) then obviously her departure would be contingent on her being replaced. I know I keep saying it but she's explicitly resigning on the 7th June, so she can't still be leader after that, unless the Tory Party doesn't accept her resignation!

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:58

Cameron's statement here:

https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/06/camerons-resignation-statement-full-text.html

He didn't say he was resigning as Tory leader so I think Wiki is probably right that he was leader until May took over but I don't think it's pertinent here.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 15:59

I mean, I'm now saying it for about the 10th time but the banner on Sky says May to stand down on 7th June! She can't both leave and remain! Does that remind anyone of anything?

By:

Dr Crippen When: 24 May 19 16:01

It must be a bit upsetting to find you've bet on something where the rules aren't clear cut.

By:

Libertine93 When: 24 May 19 16:02

Just spoken to Customer services and they have clarified that the market is settled when she resigns not when a replacement is found. Wondering if LuckyAZ were you clear which market you were referring to, they weren’t getting confused with PM market?

By:

number7 When: 24 May 19 16:05

You may be right.We might have to wait til June 7 to get more clarity

By:

Arbitrage When: 24 May 19 16:14

My son has been told on chat it will be date of resignation not replacement. I got told replacement earlier but was specific which market and she got very confused before saying it will be referred to Management

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 16:14

May 24, 2019 -- 4:02PM, Libertine93 wrote:

Just spoken to Customer services and they have clarified that the market is settled when she resigns not when a replacement is found. Wondering if LuckyAZ were you clear which market you were referring to, they weren’t getting confused with PM market?

Wow, pile in at 3.05 then. They must have told some people otherwise (I refer you to my post at 2.20 saying that people must have got hold of some monkey who was saying stupid things) but there's really not much dispute about what the interpretation should be.

You'd be very brave to bet on her "lasting" until July even if you trust Betfair CS on this. What if Central Office puts out a statement on the 7th June saying something like:

"As per Prime Minister May's statement on the 24th May outside Downing Street, she today officially resigns as leader of the Conservative Party. A new leader will be announced at the end of the leadership contest with details as follows..."

? Can't see how Betfair could easily avoid settling on that and that's by no means the most unambiguous they could be. They could say she ceases to be leader or that there will be a period without an official leader until the contest ends or even nominate a temporary stand in. Again, as per a few posts ago, arguably they shouldn't answer hypothetical questions.

By:

Fatslogger When: 24 May 19 16:17

I've not had a lot of dealings with CS but have generally found them to be very pleasant but not very clued up and to be fair, it's unrealistic to expect them to be expert in details of how all their markets work. Last time I did, there had been an issue with a suspension of a market when it should have been open then it reopening when it should have closed, allowing someone to match a bet of mine that had already lost! CS gave me all sorts of manifest rubbish about what had happened and why and eventually referred it to someone who almost instantly sorted it out. I really wouldn't trust what they say at all.

By:

Arbitrage When: 24 May 19 16:20

Looks to me early calls got told replacement. Later got told resignation date. Maybe management have reviewed and clarified. Customer service advisors caught unawares early on?

By:

LuckyAz When: 24 May 19 16:23

I enquired on the 'Exit Dates - Theresa May' market Libertine, I readjusted my position based on what I was told & should win as I can't see them electing another leader before the end of June but personally I would prefer it if they voided the market as the rules are simply not clear enough.