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Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?
Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?
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Replies: 717
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Effectively she is working her notice.
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I get you though-it's a shambles.
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Politics is such a grey area at the best of times!
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I'm out of the market now but sympathise with those who have taken positions based on flakey rules.
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She resigned as PM to trigger a leadership contest.
She hasn't resigned as prime minister she has said she will resign as leader of the tory party on june 7 |
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Sorry, yes I meant leader.
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That June 7 is set in stone? If so they would be settling markets if they thought it was applicable?
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Been a long day
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when cameron resigned he announced in June that he would be gone by October but would remain on as leader and PM until a new leader was chosen. May is saying the opposite, she announced in May that she'll be standing down as leader on 7th June but will remain as PM until a new leader is chosen.
It is highly unusual for the Tories to be leaderless. I think it has only happened once since 1922. It comes down to whether you trust May to stick to her word or will she remain as leader until a new one is chosen like all the other leaders have done? The date of 7th June is meaningless if she remains on as leader, so you have to assume she will formally resign as leader on that date. It's the only way the 7th June date can be significant and she wouldn't have mentioned that date if it wasn't. |
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But a lot of people say all she meant by 'resign' was that she will trigger a leadership contest on that date but remain as leader until a new one is chosen, when she will formally resign. That's what normally happens and I wouldn't take her at her word. It would be highly unusual for her to formally resign and leave the party leaderless until a new leader is chosen.
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Take the point lurka but the contest actually starts on the 10th June and she was very explicit that she will resign as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on the 7th June. This literally means she will no longer be leader. It’s certainly possible that this was meant loosely and that technically she will still be leader but that’s not at all how it was framed and I can’t see how Betfair can know this. I’ve had them tell me that the Tories can release a statement that she’s officially no longer leader; replace her with an interim leader or she can die and she’ll still officially be leader! That’s patently absurd based on the wording employed in the market rules, especially as they say they’ll go on official statements (not on them arbitrarily deciding on something before it’s even happened).
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You could say she’s giving notice of resignation on 7th June, I suppose but she’s giving notice of her intent to give notice in that case, which again is ridiculous.
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People don't understand the market. She will resign as conservative leader on june 7th, her deputy will lead the party. She will remain as PM until end of July. the market is not about PM it is exit date of party leader.
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My main concern for you FS is that the info yesterday should have sent the market to 1.01, even a suspension and a settlement. Because that hasn't happened I think they might shaft June backers
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Theresa hasn't actually left as leader yet, she will on June 7th. To clear up other comments, she hasn't given notice fromn june 7th she has actually resigned on June 7 this enables the new leadership election to take place. Who knows what will happen the tories may ask her change her mind which is why the market can't settle. But realistically this market will be over on June 7 if betfair read their own rules.
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Contact CS again this morning and they said “The market will be settled once Theresa May is officially not the leader of the Conservative Party”.
He said this information has been given by their traders. I queried whole replacement issue and the different messages they gave yesterday and he stated there was some uncertainty at first regarding settlement and that this has now been clarified by traders as above. Suggest everyone contacts on chat to get some proof. |
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I have just contacted CS again & have been advised the below:
"As per traders update: the market will be settled once Theresa May is officially not the leader of the conservative party. When a replacement is confirmed & takes her title. This could happen after June 7th." This is the same as I was advised yesterday which is basically May remains leader until a replacement is sworn in, I have asked them if they could issue a statement on the forum to clear up any confusion & was advised my suggestion would be passed onto the traders. Would advise anyone to thinking of placing money on this market to contact CS first if in any doubt. |
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The market rules don't include a "When a replacement is confirmed & takes her title". Not sure why CS are adding this on.
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*some CS staff
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CS said opposite to me about replacement when I specifically queried it and reiterated it was simply when she is officially not the leader. This could all hang on the word officially!
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According to CS that is the latest update they have been given by the traders, if in doubt contact CS before parting with any more of your hard earned cash is the best advice I can give to anyone.
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Ok been on again. Reiterated what I was told earlier about when she officially leaves and no mention of replacement.
I asked why someone told different and he said “if she stays in a caretaker capacity it could be later than 7th June. I said I don’t believe that was what would happen, Then said he would pass on my comments |
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if she isnt replaced by a deputy on 7 june she will still be leader
if she is replaced she will not be |
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They will have no leader
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they havnt had one for years but they still havnt paid out
but it will be offician result not what some guy on a forum says |
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If theres a chance that the price on a May/June Exit is being kept artificially high by confused and conflicting CS advice shirley the best thing for Betfair to do is to clarify the rules on here at the top of the Politics Forum.
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betfair dont have a time machine to know whats actually going to happen from
7th june onwards. may might not even wish to be an mp, or may wish to hang around to lead her party during the election to replace her. she might not even have decided yet. |
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They don't need a leader. Theresa will be PM but she will have exited as leader on June 7th. Betfair don't need to confirm anything the rules are clear for everyone to read. The problem is people confuse PM with party leader, the 2 normally are side by side, but in these circumstances they are not.
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The logic of this market is that if Theresa May died this afternoon she would still be leader until July
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Seems the problem is caused by BF not considering the possibility of there being a vacancy in the leadership of the Conservative Party, and assuming that May would have to stay on, at least 'officially', until the election of the new leader.
But a vacancy is not only a possibility it seems an inevitably here. I think when it becomes apparent that the position becomes vacant they will have to void this. Only if May is said to be 'interim leader' during the leadership election could these bets on July Exit be settled as winners. |
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no, she has a deputy, he would go see the queen and be pm and leader of tories.
i guess betfair would void if may died as often happens in horse markets. |
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I dunno, i think the deputy would be seen as like a 1 or 2 game caretaker in football and they could not settle on him.
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There’s a big difference between party leader and PM and the need for a deputy. The country (constitutionally) requires a PM or deputy at all times, so if anything happens to May, Lidington would step in as deputy PM. Note that the announcement yesterday was she is resigning as leader of the Tory party on 7th June, she is not resigning as PM as yet.
The Tory Party does not require either a leader or deputy/caretaker for the short period they are selecting the next leader to fill the vacant position. I believe they are 2 quite different things and BF shouldn’t mix them up. |
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cameron resigned in june and was replaced in july
how did betfair settle his leaving date ? |
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Cameron never gave a timetable just said he’d go by October
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/david-cameron-announces-his-resignation---full-statement/amp/ |
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I am £ 16-17 down on this as its stands - and leaving it alone. So no agenda, only dabbled.
I don't see any ambiguity at all. She is continuing as Prime Minister, but is resigning as Party Leader on June 7th. She will cease to be PM when new Conservative Leader is chosen. In the interim there is no Tory Party leader. The rules state "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?". Answer = June 7th. There is absolutely no ambiguity here whatsoever. Libertine93 and others are 100% correct here. I cant even see how Betfair could dispute this  |
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/conservative-party-leader-election-tory-leadership/
The key paragraph is: Usually the departing Prime Minister stays on in a "caretaker" role after resigning to give the party long enough to pick a new leader. That's what David Cameron did in 2016 and what Mrs May will be doing, too. |
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She will be the caretaker Prime Minister though, not caretaker Tory leader.
The market on here has nothing to do with who is Prime Minister, it would still be ongoing even if Corbyn was PM. |
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The argument is May is working a notice period of sorts. If you go into work on Tuesday and resign you will often remain there during your notice period. If you're an office manager,say, then you've resigned but you're still the office manager.
When Cameron et al resigned, they did so on the day of the speech but remained in place as leader (according to Wikipedia). All May's done that is different is given us advance notice of that day. She's done this because she's been under pressure to give Tories a date and to calm things down during Trump's visit. |
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*If you're an office manager,say, then you've resigned but you're still the office manager for the next month or so (whatever the length of your notice period).
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