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Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?
Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?
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Replies: 717
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sadly her resignation letter and their replay to her are not to be published according to press
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The key word is 'official' According to the 1922 committee she has 'officially' left the leadership. 'Acting' leader is unofficial. As a June backer the problem isn't that I don't understand the market. On the contrary, the problem is that I do and i can read English and understand what words mean.
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the wording is "officially cease to be leader" not "cease to be official leader"
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It does, you are correct. And here we have a word game. My annoyance with the market is not that a gambler has to predict the outcome but has to predict how a betfair trader reads it. In future I will stick to more certain, unambiguous markets.
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As a very loud June backer, even I can't argue that she still isn't leader
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Acting leader is not the leader. The clue is in the qualifying word "acting". An acting leader, like an an acting head, does not have the mandate or authority to carry out the more important duties of an actual leader/head. They are little more than a bookmark.
According to the OED, "acting": [attributive] Temporarily doing the duties of another person. By the same, an "actor" is someone playing a role, but is not really that person. Unless you think George C. Scott was actually General Patton, or Alec Baldwin is actually Donald Trump. For what it's worth, I escalated the non-settlement of this market with Betfair, and they have now given me an IBAS reference number to take the issue for adjudication. |
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Good luck with that one Chemosabe but I think your cause is lost. Betfairs rules allow them to interpret whichever outcome they feel is correct. They aren't set in stone but they should be.
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Chem, i totally agree with you. the key word is 'official'. good luck. Personally it costs be £24 and i won that this week on the football, but it is the principle of an ambiguous market.
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@BetfairCS - She is now the acting leader for the party until a new candidate is chosen, so she will still continue with her leader duties although not officially a leader of the party.
Betfair admit May is not leader on twitter. |
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Interesting, and I asked them to publicise the evidence why june 7th is not the winning date.
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https://twitter.com/theresa_may - Prime Minister and @Conservatives Leader.
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The Boris spin to have this settled in June is underway....
TORY grandees are pushing for Boris Johnson to be crowned PM without a vote by party members – so he can ‘get cracking’ on Brexit. Sources claim that if the Tory frontrunner comes out on top in voting by MPs he should be put in No.10 straightaway. Under the contest’s current rules, MPs will pick a final two by the end of June. The Tory membership then elects the winner by July 22, but there is growing concern that if the party waits that long, it could cause yet another critical Brexit delay. One of those behind the early coronation plan says: “If we wait, you’ll have the PM hitting up Europe in the first week of August when they are on the beach.” They add that the former Foreign Secretary is already way ahead in polls of the Tory membership. But on Friday night rival campaigns warned against any “stitch-up”. And they said it was vital Boris Johnson or whoever made the final two were tested and put under “real scrutiny”. Theresa May was crowned without going to the membership in 2016 after Andrea Leadsom pulled out. One camp said: “It’s hugely important members get a chance to decide who our next leader is so that the next Prime Minister has a mandate.” |
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This is a horror story.Iv'e no bet just find it all ghastly.
You can't have a Prime Minister and an acting Prime Minister at the same time. Surely that's all anyone should need to know. Scandalous! |
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You can't have a Prime Minister and an acting Prime Minister at the same time.
Surely that's all anyone should need to know I agree. What country's prime minister are you referring to? |
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I'm referring to Mrs May being one or the other.
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She is not acting prime minister. There is no such thing as an "acting" prime minister in the UK. The Queen decides who the prime minister is and that is May, until she resigns.
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Ok Dave, i should have said leader..
She is the Prime Minister who has resigned but is still acting leader as opposed to leader and her resignation is on an ongoing basis which means she is actually not acting. |
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The Prime Minister part is not relevant really.
The market was just about Tory leader, despite what some people earlier in the thread seemed to think. As it is she is 'officially' the acting leader of the party until someone else is. So yeah she is the leader as per the rules of the market. |
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Thanks Tober, stand corrected.
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https://order-order.com/2019/06/17/rory-mania-lead-boris-coronation/
could be all over tomorrow! |
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No possible chance.
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if boris gets 60% and others less than 10% each then what happens?
is that it? |
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No. Two candidates must go to the members. In an tie years ago for who was eliminated (Michael Ancram was one of them) there was a revote as none of them would back down.
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seems when they framed the new rules they didnt state what would happen, or
not that i can find anyway. pretty sure you are correct and they would declare a second place for the run off. |
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Boris Johnson could become Prime Minister tomorrow, thanks to Rory Stewart, obviating the need to go to any public hustings.
The 1922 Committee’s new threshold rules mean that any candidate who gets fewer than 33 votes tomorrow is automatically eliminated from the contest, meaning if all but Boris fail to meet the threshold, he becomes PM. There is a real (if small) chance that due to Rory’s disruption, Hunt and Gove could slip back a little and other candidates not gain enough new supporters for an accidental coronation to happen… Guido’s tracker of public declarations shows that Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove are both sitting on just on 34 public declarations, meaning Rory only has to attract two public switchers from each for neither to reach the 33 vote cut off. Among Gove’s declared backers are uber-Remainers Claire Perry and Oliver Letwin. Among Hunt’s are Amber Rudd and Greg Clark. All four could switch ship if they are keen to ensure Rory makes it into Tuesday night’s BBC debate, accidentally knocking out Gove and Hunt… Even going by non-public votes from last round, Hunt would have to lose just eleven, and Gove just five MPs to fall below the vital threshold. Assuming a full turnout, Boris would only need to take 153 votes, for every other candidate to rest on 32, and an accidental coronation to take place… |
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Guido is Boris unofficial (and very naughty) social media arm.
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Can still lay June at 65s, why?
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1 or 2% chance that someone quits on Sunday I guess. Though seems a free money lay as less than 1 in 1000 that happens.
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Rumor that IBAS have ruled betfair settled this incorrectly from Guido (yes I know). Can anyone remember what their position was?
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and if ibas ruled they settled it incorrectly what does that make you?
btw some of the howlers from ub itt prime minister and party leader are the same thing david cameron resigned in june 2019 that despite many people debating the issue, the statement The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party. could happily be ignored and "She will stand down on Friday 7 June" categorically didn't mean "She will stand down on Friday 7 June". |
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Is that "Yes"?
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btw some of the howlers from ub itt
prime minister and party leader are the same thing david cameron resigned in june 2019 that despite many people debating the issue, the statement The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party. could happily be ignored and "She will stand down on Friday 7 June" categorically didn't mean "She will stand down on Friday 7 June". |
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As I gently pointed out to dave1357 four years ago, you do not win a case by re-stating it more vehemently. Well, not this one at least.
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btw some of the howlers from ub itt
prime minister and party leader are the same thing david cameron resigned in june 2019 that despite many people debating the issue, the statement The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party. could happily be ignored and "She will stand down on Friday 7 June" categorically didn't mean "She will stand down on Friday 7 June". |
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Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
In office 13 July 2016 – 24 July 2019 Sorry dave. I thought you would have come to terms with this by now. Shall we give it another five years? |
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btw some of the howlers from ub itt
prime minister and party leader are the same thing david cameron resigned in june 2019 that despite many people debating the issue, the statement The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party. could happily be ignored and "She will stand down on Friday 7 June" categorically didn't mean "She will stand down on Friday 7 June". |
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Always worth a read
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