Politics
Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?
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Loads at 3.4 available - not seen anything like this before ...
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I think the rules are clear....when will she cease to be leader of the party. No mention of finding a replacement
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According to the market, if I run into May on June 8th and we ask one another what we do, she will say "I'm leader of the Tory party"
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.. A day after she has resigned
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Agree with you Lifter, it seems an obviously stupid position. Current price is nudging 4, however, so there are equally obviously a lot of people out there taking the opposite view.
LuckyAz, agree with you too. Betfair seems to have dropped a bollock on this whatever happens from here. I'm obviously in favour of them settling her as leaving on the 7th as I then win 18k, as opposed to losing 36k if they settle her as staying but the fair thing is probably to void it, given that they've been giving duff advice out. |
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Can’t see they have any choice but to void it if they’re giving out conflicting information. I was told with no uncertainty that it is when she resigns, not when she is replaced.
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I think you are right Fatslogger.if she does what she said in her speech then it is more like when john major resigned to fight leadership election and tory leadship positon was officially vacant(john major had ceased to be tory leader).She would have ceased to be tory leader and hence betfair rules pretty straight forward.
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the confusion may be because most tory leaders have stayed on til their successor took over.Of course May might go back on her word(she got form) and carry on til new leader is chosen
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Could it be that the Tories might ask her to stay on until a replacement is voted in ?
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I thought the process was straightforward:
1. Resigns as party leader so creating a vacancy to enable leadership contest 2. Remains as PM to carry on the business of running the country (there's a joke here) 3. When a replacement is found she goes to Palace and formally resigns as PM I don't believe she in anyway acting as a temporary leader of the Party in the interim. Rules say "When will Theresa May cease to be the official leader of the Conservative Party?" Surely that is what happens when you resign. Resigning is one event. Finding a replacement is another event and no mention of replacement in the rules. |
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Its got to be about what she does because although it was forced, it was her decision.If she resigns as party leader on 7th june ,then she officially ceases to be leader of tory party(bet settled as June exit month).If she does what Cameron done then bet must be settled as when new leader replaces her.I dont think i will be betting on politics again.
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In my opinion, it comes down to whether or not she sticks to her June 7th date. Currently, it's a 1.32 shot that she won't.
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If nobody else is prepared to stand they will persuade her to stay on until October
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Constitutionally you have to have a caretaker in No 10 in the interim and it may well be Mrs May. More likely to be a temporary leader like Liddington.
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Fatslogger they have not actually declared themselves yet but I'm sure many will. Like Mrs May they can't resist being PM however dire the circumstances.
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I agree sage you have to have a caretaker in number 10, but that’s not what the market is about, it’s about Tory leader. In 7th June she stops being Tory leader. She stays on as PM until a new PM is chosen, but there will be a vacancy as leader of the Tory party. In fact there will even be a point before all the constitutional stuff is sorted out when May is PM but Boris or someone is Tory leader simultaneously
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Cameron resigned the Tory leadership once Leadsom suddenly pulled out of the 2 horse race to replace him on July 11th - this effectively left May as leader in waiting and she assumed the role that day. A date for the leadership election had been set for September but obviously wasn't needed. Different circumstances today as there seems to be a queue around Parliament Sq to take the job ...
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resign
VERB 1no object Voluntarily leave a job or office. ‘he resigned from the government in protest at the policy’ More example sentencesSynonyms 1.1with object Give up (an office, privilege, etc.) ‘four deputies resigned their seats’ More example sentencesSynonyms 1.2Chess End a game by conceding defeat without being checkmated. ‘he lost his Queen and resigned in 45 moves’ |
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WHY can you still bet 4.4 May to'cease being Leader of her party' before the end of June???
She is 1.29 for July-August. Are the se layers betfair insiders??? |
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This is why I would never bet in these markets. Not even BF have a clue what their own rules are.
It will come down to some snotty nose trader's arbitrary decision. |
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In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
FCUK OFF!! They are a monopoly who can do what they want, don't give a fcuk when there are outages for hours and you can't trade bets and just do what they want when settling bets. I've had a few dings dongs with CS on cricket and they are immovable. Hard to even get past the initial simpleton to speak to anybody knowledgeable either  |
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Just got onto CS, as clearly everyone else has. I've had this gem back:
I have received conformation that the market will be settled once Theresa May officially ceases as the conservative leader. |
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This might be against you CS
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48395905 |
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Dodgy as fcuk though when she says she will resign on the 7th June.
I would be raging |
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She can't even fcuk off properly!!
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Anyway, had this now:
No it would count when she officially leaves office when her replacement is in office. Arse! Still don't think they can sustain this view logically, although that might not stop them and certainly it would have to be subject to clarification from the Tory Party, as already discussed. |
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what a load of bollox!
Did you manage to lay some off? |
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I’ve been told the exact opposite. Market surely voided. I have the screenshots to prove it.
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I cant see how they can add the part about her replacement being in office.That is not in their rules.Of course it might be that she wont officially
leave office until replacement is ready. |
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They won't void it, they don't care, they will just settle as they see fit and everybody who has lost can just fcuk off.
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