Politics
ffs
That it will go all the way though is not so sure. With Boris looking strong it will be difficult to keep him out of the final two. If he gets that far he surely will win easily in a members vote.
What will the other candidate want ? If they want to be Foreign Sec or Chancellor then they can't spend a month rubbishing Boris's plans. Only if it is someone that would not serve under Boris would they want to do that before going to the backbenches. I think there will be a lot of spin from the Boris camp that "We have 18 weeks 'to do Brexit' so let's not waste the first 5 of those on a futile campaign when Boris is a cert".
So June may still win.
"The Rt Hon Theresa May MP will remain Acting Leader of the Party until a successor is appointed"
I was as vehement as anyone that she was no longer leader on Friday when she resigns, but there is no chance whatsoever that the market will be settled on Friday.
Jun 5, 2019 -- 9:02PM, tobermory wrote:
If she doesn't vacate the leadership then she remains leader til the election is done.That it will go all the way though is not so sure. With Boris looking strong it will be difficult to keep him out of the final two. If he gets that far he surely will win easily in a members vote.What will the other candidate want ? If they want to be Foreign Sec or Chancellor then they can't spend a month rubbishing Boris's plans. Only if it is someone that would not serve under Boris would they want to do that before going to the backbenches. I think there will be a lot of spin from the Boris camp that "We have 18 weeks 'to do Brexit' so let's not waste the first 5 of those on a futile campaign when Boris is a cert".So June may still win.
June ramping has just hit a whole new level of absurdity. 
You think if there is 1 candidate left on June 22nd that they will still have a members ballot with May hanging about for a month ?
https://order-order.com/2019/06/06/punters-demand-stewards-inquiry-mays-resignation-date-bets/
Over on the Betfair exchange some £3,057,129 has been staked on the exact date of her exit on the “UK – Party Leaders– Exit Dates – Theresa May” market. The small print in the bet market’s rules states:
Punters seeking clarification have now been told that this means when she leaves Downing Street – which is something completely different altogether. May will remain the Prime Minister in Downing Street for another month or so after she has resigned even though she is no longer the party leader. Punters who understood the Conservative Party’s rules are not happy. It’s clear the bookies are confusing the party leadership and the premiership…
Rowena Mason Rowena Mason
Boris Johnson could avoid facing an immediate confidence vote in his premiership if he becomes Conservative leader, as ministers are considering whether to send MPs home early for their summer break before the new prime minister is announced.
Mel Stride, the new leader of the House of Commons, aroused suspicions that the Conservatives are plotting to put off a confidence vote for their new leader until September, as he refused to confirm when recess will start. (See 11.36am.)
He said it was “not necessarily” the case that the new Conservative leader would have to appear in front of parliament before MPs go off on holiday until the autumn.
Ministers appear to be trying to get round the threat of a new Conservative leader failing to be able to form a government, if Johnson or one of the other frontrunners to succeed Theresa May loses the support of some Tory MPs or cannot win over the Democratic Unionist party.
Labour sources said they believe the government whips are planning recess to start potentially as early as July 19 – almost a week earlier than last year – while the Conservatives will not say exactly when the winner of their leadership contest will be announced, other than it will be in the week of July 22.
The move to delay a confidence vote until September would give a new leader the chance to ensure its confidence and supply deal with the DUP still stands.
However, it could mean that Theresa May would not be able to go to Buckingham Palace straight away and resign as prime minister. Her spokesman said May would only hand over the keys to No 10 when “she says to the Queen that she is stepping aside and believes that someone else can command the confidence of the House”.
Jun 6, 2019 -- 8:12AM, Gin wrote:
Quite a lot of chatter over at PoliticalBetting.com over the resignation date of Theresa May. Barring something dramatic happening Theresa May will formally resign as Leader of the Conservative Party tomorrow, as the above official statement from the party chairman and the 1922 Committee makes clear. Seems straightforward.Over on the Betfair exchange some £3,057,129 has been staked on the exact date of her exit on the “UK – Party Leaders– Exit Dates – Theresa May” market. The small print in the bet market’s rules states:Punters seeking clarification have now been told that this means when she leaves Downing Street – which is something completely different altogether. May will remain the Prime Minister in Downing Street for another month or so after she has resigned even though she is no longer the party leader. Punters who understood the Conservative Party’s rules are not happy. It’s clear the bookies are confusing the party leadership and the premiership…
Yes, but she will stay on as "acting leader". Which in the eyes of BF means that she hasn't stopped being leader.
Jun 6, 2019 -- 8:22AM, Floccinaucinihilipilification wrote:
From The Guardian: "No 10 says May will only resign when she is confident her successor can command confidence of Commons"Rowena Mason Rowena MasonBoris Johnson could avoid facing an immediate confidence vote in his premiership if he becomes Conservative leader, as ministers are considering whether to send MPs home early for their summer break before the new prime minister is announced.Mel Stride, the new leader of the House of Commons, aroused suspicions that the Conservatives are plotting to put off a confidence vote for their new leader until September, as he refused to confirm when recess will start. (See 11.36am.)He said it was “not necessarily” the case that the new Conservative leader would have to appear in front of parliament before MPs go off on holiday until the autumn.Ministers appear to be trying to get round the threat of a new Conservative leader failing to be able to form a government, if Johnson or one of the other frontrunners to succeed Theresa May loses the support of some Tory MPs or cannot win over the Democratic Unionist party.Labour sources said they believe the government whips are planning recess to start potentially as early as July 19 – almost a week earlier than last year – while the Conservatives will not say exactly when the winner of their leadership contest will be announced, other than it will be in the week of July 22.The move to delay a confidence vote until September would give a new leader the chance to ensure its confidence and supply deal with the DUP still stands.However, it could mean that Theresa May would not be able to go to Buckingham Palace straight away and resign as prime minister. Her spokesman said May would only hand over the keys to No 10 when “she says to the Queen that she is stepping aside and believes that someone else can command the confidence of the House”.
Market is about Tory leadership
I am concerned that it is more a case of "good for Betfair". The very irregular way in which the Theresa May exit market(s) have been behaving (since she announced her 7th June resignation date as party leader) suggest VERY strongly to me, that Betfair itself has taken an active position in the market, and they are sitting on a lot of money for a July-Sept exit date.
They clearly initially misunderstood the difference between the roles of Party Leader and Prime Minister, and are now clutching at straws that the position of "acting" leader is the same as the "official" leader (which it obviously is not). Of course, they are relying on the fact that they will use their "discretion" to determine how the Party Leader market is settled (ie to their advantage). If this is the case, then Betfair would be guilty of a major conflict of interest.
The only way to settle the question of when Theresa "officially" ceases to be leader of the Conservative Party, is for Betfair have to get an official statement from Conservative Campaign Headquarters. The uninformed opinion of some Betfair employee (with a vested interest in the outcome) is just not going to cut it. This confirmation needs to be sought on the 7th June - tomorrow, and the market should be suspended until they get a formal response, and then either settled or re-opened depending on that response.
Jun 6, 2019 -- 10:05AM, Chemosabe wrote:
People may be reluctant to take "advice" from someone who clearly doesn't understand that the position of Party Leader is not the same as Prime Minister.
I understand it's common sense to check with the rule maker exactly what the rules are of a market before parting with my hard earned cash, unfortunately for some involved in this market common sense has gone out of the window & they're still in denial.
The best advice I can give you now is trade out of your position while you still can...a small red is better than a large red. 
Chemosabe • June 6, 2019 3:20 PM BST
The only way to settle the question of when Theresa "officially" ceases to be leader of the Conservative Party, is for Betfair have to get an official statement from Conservative Campaign Headquarters.
They have issued a statement: "The Rt Hon Theresa May MP will remain Acting Leader of the Party until a successor is appointed".
Betfair have got lucky. At the time they were spouting off, they had no evidence whatsoever to back up their claims. But there is utterly no chance of disputing their assertion now.
Me “if she resigns on June 7th that will settle the market?”
CS “exactly, it is the date that Theresa May resigns not when a new leader is chosen”
Fee free to DM me if you want the screenshot.
While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th of June, she will not officially leave until a new leader has been chosen.
As I said at the time this was nonsense, but the official Tory party statement has got them off the hook.
Also - time of replacement is irrelevant. The position can officially be vacant. As it has been in the past.
June 7th is clearly the date she is no longer leader
Jun 6, 2019 -- 11:37AM, Libertine93 wrote:
Their response hasn’t been the same throughout though I was told by betfair CS word for word Me “if she resigns on June 7th that will settle the market?”CS “exactly, it is the date that Theresa May resigns not when a new leader is chosen”Fee free to DM me if you want the screenshot.
You were kind enough to share that screenshot with me shortly after May announced her departure timetable on the 24th May & I agreed with you the rules are very vague.
There was some initial confusion by some CS staff but they were quickly updated by 'The Traders' on their rules for settlement on this market.
Since then further information has been released by the Conservative party this week "While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th of June, she will not officially leave until a new leader has been chosen.
This legally does get Betfair 'off the hook' so to speak, well played 'The Traders'. 
So a statement declaring she is leader til someone else is has saved Betfair from having to argue black is white.
Their response hasn’t been the same throughout though I was told by betfair CS word for word
Me “if she resigns on June 7th that will settle the market?”
CS “exactly, it is the date that Theresa May resigns not when a new leader is chosen”
Fee free to DM me if you want the screenshot.
Ok, one or two of their CS might have made an error but I'm afraid that's Betfair nowadays. The official line from the team that makes the decision has not at any point changed. If something official had come out saying the position was vacant then I'm sure Betfair would have settled. Again, that is clear in the market rules:
'In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.'
Jun 6, 2019 -- 3:07PM, dave1357 wrote:
Interestingly, if Boris wins the tory leadership, he might not be able to go to the Queen and say he can form a government.
party, this isnt a prime minister market.
but there is a next pm market, and betfair may wait , again, for
queens speech to pass, which would be fun, again.
and run off is carried out, or one concedes
but i expect tories want full and frank debates on bbc and sky as they will focus uk on tory party
and away from others.
Give it a rest, mate. BBC News has stated several times this morning that Theresa is formally stepping down as Conservative Leader today.
At this point, you're clearly just pretending you don't understand the difference between party leader and Prime Minister. You're just talking your book. Do you work for Betfair by any chance?
"Theresa May officially steps down as Tory leader".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452
If Betfair are going to ignore a statement by our STATE BROADCASTER because it doesn't suit their book, then Betfair are going to be in for a world of pain. There's a clear conflict of interest in the way they are managing this market.
She announced her resignation two weeks ago, saying it was a matter of deep regret that she had been unable to deliver Brexit.
Eleven Conservative MPs are vying to replace her as party leader and, ultimately, prime minister.
The winner of the contest is expected to be announced in the week of 22 July.
Mrs May remains acting party leader during the leadership election process
article written by some bloke whos backed june on hear?
anal oliver next manager on footy would be proud of that....
As Donny says, Resign doesn't always mean to quit the role on that very day.
Jun 7, 2019 -- 5:51AM, Chemosabe wrote:
BBC News headlines this morning. Verbatim:"Theresa May officially steps down as Tory leader".https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452If Betfair are going to ignore a statement by our STATE BROADCASTER because it doesn't suit their book, then Betfair are going to be in for a world of pain. There's a clear conflict of interest in the way they are managing this market.
No I don't work for them so I wish you the best of luck in trying to sue them.
got news of mays resignation.
Jun 7, 2019 -- 6:41AM, donny osmond wrote:
bbc staff must have thought they were cleaning up when theygot news of mays resignation.
https://web.archive.org/web/20190524234641/https://www.conservatives.com/OurTeam
My issue with this was that she would still be considered leader if the position was officially vacant.
Now the only hope of June rests on Boris making the two and the other candidate accepting foreign office or chancellor rather than lose to Boris and become a backbencher.
Jun 7, 2019 -- 8:42AM, tobermory wrote:
As a June backer I don't have a problem with active leader being considered official leader.My issue with this was that she would still be considered leader if the position was officially vacant.Now the only hope of June rests on Boris making the two and the other candidate accepting foreign office or chancellor rather than lose to Boris and become a backbencher.
Best of luck with your bet but I wouldn't put any more money on it.
on tory website, which bbc june backers cannot influence
Theresa May
Prime minister and Leader of the Conservative Party
https://www.conservatives.com/OurTeam
According to the OED, "acting": [attributive] Temporarily doing the duties of another person.
By the same, an "actor" is someone playing a role, but is not really that person. Unless you think George C. Scott was actually General Patton, or Alec Baldwin is actually Donald Trump.
For what it's worth, I escalated the non-settlement of this market with Betfair, and they have now given me an IBAS reference number to take the issue for adjudication.
Betfair admit May is not leader on twitter.
TORY grandees are pushing for Boris Johnson to be crowned PM without a vote by party members – so he can ‘get cracking’ on Brexit. Sources claim that if the Tory frontrunner comes out on top in voting by MPs he should be put in No.10 straightaway.
Under the contest’s current rules, MPs will pick a final two by the end of June. The Tory membership then elects the winner by July 22, but there is growing concern that if the party waits that long, it could cause yet another critical Brexit delay. One of those behind the early coronation plan says: “If we wait, you’ll have the PM hitting up Europe in the first week of August when they are on the beach.” They add that the former Foreign Secretary is already way ahead in polls of the Tory membership. But on Friday night rival campaigns warned against any “stitch-up”.
And they said it was vital Boris Johnson or whoever made the final two were tested and put under “real scrutiny”. Theresa May was crowned without going to the membership in 2016 after Andrea Leadsom pulled out. One camp said: “It’s hugely important members get a chance to decide who our next leader is so that the next Prime Minister has a mandate.”
You can't have a Prime Minister and an acting Prime Minister at the same time.
Surely that's all anyone should need to know.
Scandalous!
Surely that's all anyone should need to know
I agree. What country's prime minister are you referring to?
She is the Prime Minister who has resigned but is still acting leader as opposed to leader and her resignation
is on an ongoing basis which means she is actually not acting.
The market was just about Tory leader, despite what some people earlier in the thread seemed to think.
As it is she is 'officially' the acting leader of the party until someone else is. So yeah she is the leader as per the rules of the market.
could be all over tomorrow!
is that it?
not that i can find anyway. pretty sure you are correct and they would declare a
second place for the run off.
The 1922 Committee’s new threshold rules mean that any candidate who gets fewer than 33 votes tomorrow is automatically eliminated from the contest, meaning if all but Boris fail to meet the threshold, he becomes PM. There is a real (if small) chance that due to Rory’s disruption, Hunt and Gove could slip back a little and other candidates not gain enough new supporters for an accidental coronation to happen…
Guido’s tracker of public declarations shows that Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove are both sitting on just on 34 public declarations, meaning Rory only has to attract two public switchers from each for neither to reach the 33 vote cut off. Among Gove’s declared backers are uber-Remainers Claire Perry and Oliver Letwin. Among Hunt’s are Amber Rudd and Greg Clark. All four could switch ship if they are keen to ensure Rory makes it into Tuesday night’s BBC debate, accidentally knocking out Gove and Hunt…
Even going by non-public votes from last round, Hunt would have to lose just eleven, and Gove just five MPs to fall below the vital threshold. Assuming a full turnout, Boris would only need to take 153 votes, for every other candidate to rest on 32, and an accidental coronation to take place…
Nov 26, 2019 -- 10:03AM, bingo bongo wrote:
Rumor that IBAS have ruled betfair settled this incorrectly from Guido (yes I know). Can anyone remember what their position was?
Betfair settled in July 2019.
Didn't they, dave1357?
btw some of the howlers from ub itt
prime minister and party leader are the same thing
david cameron resigned in june 2019
that despite many people debating the issue, the statement
The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party.
could happily be ignored and "She will stand down on Friday 7 June" categorically didn't mean "She will stand down on Friday 7 June".
prime minister and party leader are the same thing
david cameron resigned in june 2019
that despite many people debating the issue, the statement
The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party.
could happily be ignored and "She will stand down on Friday 7 June" categorically didn't mean "She will stand down on Friday 7 June".
prime minister and party leader are the same thing
david cameron resigned in june 2019
that despite many people debating the issue, the statement
The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party.
could happily be ignored and "She will stand down on Friday 7 June" categorically didn't mean "She will stand down on Friday 7 June".
In office
13 July 2016 – 24 July 2019
Sorry dave. I thought you would have come to terms with this by now. Shall we give it another five years?
prime minister and party leader are the same thing
david cameron resigned in june 2019
that despite many people debating the issue, the statement
The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party.
could happily be ignored and "She will stand down on Friday 7 June" categorically didn't mean "She will stand down on Friday 7 June".
