Pinza

Tom Dascombe has a very good strike rate at Pontefract.
That could be down to his gallop that is similar to the track with it's left hand turn and an uphill finish.

At the last meeting he ran two horses but his stable jockey went to Southwell - where he rode a winner.

Today Kingscote is at Ponte for the one ride - War Paint.
This filly is out of Excellent Art that won it's first two races (5f) and also won the Mill Reef as 3yo. It's dam never ran in a sprint race.

This runs in a 3k race today in preference to an 8k race at Nmkt on Thursday so is taking an easier option.
Trainer record at Ponte in April is not as good and he is yet to have a 2yo winner FTO at the track.

On the other hand three of the trainers fillies that had the first outing here in April all finished in 3rd place.

It is also significant that two won on their next outing and Pyman's Theory went on to win the Sandown 2yo listed race that Excellent Art also won.

The current price range is 5 to 7/1 and perhaps offers a back to lay option.

I think we can take that War Paint will be a useful filly and should be placed today.

[b]WINTER DERBY[/b]
This race was Listed from 1999 and Group 3 from 2005
On statistics you need to look for
Horse that has won on AW (50% plus win strike best)
Won over 10f or further
Won in last three runs
Won at least Class 2 race
Has run since previous November or, if not, had won FTO in any previous year
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
The only real surprise in 15 years was 25/1 winner Sergeant York – but that had AW strike rate, and win in last two runs.
Generally an improving 4yo with recent wins has the edge (7 wins)
Also the older horses 5yo up to 8yo with recent wins (5 wins)
The other two were senior horses 6yo & 7yo running after a long break (2 wins)

2014  Picks
GRANDEUR  *****
Won the trial and gets away with penalty for Grp 2 wins in 2012
Two from two in Listed races and Trainer mentioned he might have taken an engagement in Dubai after last win but comes here instead.
Sensible decision considering the long distance travel journeys in 2012 which seemed to take it's toll last year, when two long distance travel races came out negative.  Also no Dubai winter runner has come back to win this race.

DICKIE DOUGHTWYLIE **
Not quite 50% ratio on AW (1-3) but a listed winner at the track latest makes this one a decent bet at current price.
This one is too large a price but maybe worthy of a place bet

FAARAAJ ***
Has to overcome the statistic that says no horse has won this twice.
Very lightly raced last two years but produced a win in each year at Lingfield and is 2 from 2 at track.
If the favourite gets boxed in this could be the alternative
-------------------------------------------------------
Those are the three pattern race winners in their latest three runs.
Since this race became Group 3, out of the eight races, the last seven winners adhered to this statistic.
Sri Diamond won from draw 14 (2006)
The draw numbers that have failed to win (16 races) are 6,8,9,12,13
Those draws include Dick Doughtwylie and Farraaj !!


Others….
WINDHOEK ***
This one has ran in Meydan over winter and that would be the first such winner of this race.
Looking at Godlophin and their main trainers over the last 20 years this would be their earliest UK winner in Listed and Group 3 races.  Their AW win record features a couple in May but mainly it’s been October – November period, and often with a stablemate also running - to confuse the issue.

REBELLIOUS GUEST ***
This one does tick the boxes but lacks that Listed win.

ROBIN HOODS BAY
Similar to above but placed 2nd in this last year (3lb worse with Grandeur)

ANACONDA **
Thought Tom Dascombe had his best chance with Junoob in 2012 (unplaced)

To summarise.
Grandeur gets the vote with 5 star bet due to ticking all the boxes

RESULT:
1st ROBIN HOODS BAY 10/1
2nd WINHOEK 11/4
3rd AUSSIE REIGNS 33/1

UPDATE;
Take draw number 8 off the losing list.
The winner becomes the second horse to have finished 2nd in a previous Winter Derby race
to win (Premio Loco) and third to have ran previously in the race (Hattan)

Seven qualifiers this year is more than the normal.
I used to adhere to a winner in last two races, but that would only have ruled out Farraaj.

I thought Dave Mitchell - "Value Scope" in Daily Mirror summed up race quite well.
No horse rated less than 100 - ruled out Rebellious Guest (and 2 others)
Placed form in last race - ruled out Farraaj.
Winning form over distance - ruled out Anaconda
Experience at Track - ruled out Windhoek (and 4 others)

Leaving his four remaining - Dick Doughtwylie, Robin Hoods Bay, Grandeur and Premio Loco.
Due to the draw he went for Premio Loco.

The winner had never won a pattern race (last seven winners did), and his record at Linga
- 2 wins from 9 runs, is the worst of all past winners who had won at track, but he becomes the seventh winner to have run in February trial race there.

Windhoek maintained the Meydan runner record - no winners, but it was close. END

UPDATE;
The Lingfield race on Good Friday looked almost a re run of the Winter Derby
1st GRANDEUR
2nd DICK DOUGHTWYLIE
3rd ROBIN HOODS BAY

If only they had finished in that order on the Derby day!!!

After a couple of "lays" went astray yesterday I need to be more careful. Mainly not to lay the probable best horse in the race (The Fugue) or laying in a race that has several runners withdrawn (Our Obsession).

I'm not that keen on laying but there's not many stand out winners and after time spent researching a race, feel the need to get a result - maybe result is not the right word!.

Today looked at 13.55 York
Stoute gets quite a few LB (long break) winners at York.
Gospel Choir is the runner today but further research shows that this later in season the less the winners and more importantly most of his hcp winners have been over 10f as opposed to todays 12f race.

Sticking with Stoute, Ryan Moore has always given a favourable mention about Pavlosk. The give in the ground is certainly evident today and back in grade to Gp 3 should assist. Also it's a course winner so everything seems to be right for today?

This evening Haggas send Heroine Required to Hamilton for a maiden.
My database tells me two things.
1. All four Scottish wins in this race type were odds on.
2. Trainer has never had a filly winner in this race type in Scotland.
So there's a plus and a minus (at current betting) to consider.

Haggas also sends Yarn up north to Newcastle and this is another filly taking on the colts. He's won twice with such at Newcastle and generally has god record there with fillies taking on colts/gelds over 7f to 8f.

The latter is the only confident bet today.

Friday.
2.10 Minley fits the bill in this race (2.2 taken)
Double Spot horses do very well in 2yo maidens at track as supported by If yesterday and Anglophile on Weds

4.50 Linga
Two horses should have this race between them based upon difference of opinion from Top Spots when 6 or more points clear.
So far since start of July this hasn't failed.

Al Irish and Astorgs Galaxy are the two concerned.

Looking at both I cannot favour one over other.



SATURDAY. Shergar Racing Day

I've never bothered with the meeting. It's more of a "fun" racecard than a gambling card.
Strangely enough I printed off the 4 day card other day and 10 year stats.
There is a trend for trainers Andrew Balding and Roger Charlton - both whom had a winner each last year - as they have won 7 and 5 races respectively over last 11 years. Charlton has no runners this year.

Looking at limited data on RPR and recent runs there is a case for the following runners/entries
Race 1
Sam Sharp (maybe to old at 7yo but in good form this season though)
Roserrow
Nine Realms
Gaul Wood

Race 4
Prairie Ranger (Andrew Balding)
Chesterfield


Race 5
Ustura (looks laid out for this on Duke Of Edinburgh race)

Race 6
Shardoroba
Noble Deed

It's family day at Chester, my local track.
My Chester database tells me that two races today may follow a trend.

2.00 When "SF" in Mirror there is a strike rate of 5 wins from 9 races (back to 1995) Two of those losers where fillies up against colts.
So sticking to colts the strike rate becomes 5 from 7.
Today GALLIC BREEZE has the SF and has a favourable draw and decent form. It's currently priced around 7/4 but the maximum S.P for all 5 winners has been 11/10. Should the selection shorten lower, to the indicated price, then it has to be the bet.

4.15 Adopting similar principles this race has gone to a filly on 4 out of 5 occasions when a Mirror "F".
Today TOBOUGG HAPPY is the one. It falls well within the price range of Evens to 5/1.

I've looked also at Stoozbets selection ONE SCOOP OR TWO.
There's a lot of merit in what he says and the price is tempting.
This horse has ran 54 races and 42 of those races were at either Wolverhampton (win strike rate 3-20), Haydock (3-9) and Chester (0-13).
The latter is a put off but the horse does normally run well in mid July to August period.
Richard Kingscote has only ridden it once, but won on it.

It maybe worth noting that it aslo has an entry for Haydock on Thursday.
Strangely enough it has only ever ran once at each of the other 12 tracks it has ran at, winning only at Bath.

Too busy doing the daily routine of downloading Raceform Interactive and printing off 10 year stats.
Working out speed figures and jotting A to F as speed order on daily racecard. Then adding DT for Double Top select.

Putting in the "Spots" and working out how many points clear and inputting figures.
Then highlighting trainers that have two, or more, runners in the race

Having scanned the recent few weeks of Spot runners that are 6 points plus clear of next horse there doesn't seem to be that much merit.
In fact the higher the figures the less likely they are to win.
A spot figure that rates the horse 14 or more point clear seems more likely not to win?
16 races since start of July up to and including last Saturday  produced only 4 winners and eight of eleven favs were beaten (4 odds on)
Breaking that down further maiden races provided just one winner (Treaty of Paris 4/6) from eleven runners.

Recent examples - Mirror spot (figure first) and Express (both maidens)
Agustus Ada 31 and 20 clear won 4/6
Floating Ballerino 22 and 12 2nd 11/10

Today sees two examples.. (both maidens)
6.10 Donc Practising 22 and 41
6.20 Bright Chinese Jade 16 and 14
It's always risky laying though and I'm still attempting to reduce the risk.

Whilst still keeping records they will only be input into d/base over winter months.
The Summer months of July-August are always busy with amount of racing and time is needed to update more important things.

Todays qualifiers
2.00 Patisserie (E) (UNPL)
2.35 Complicit (M) (WON 5/2)
3.15 Krypton Factor (M)(UNPL)
4.15 Narmin (ME) (WON 9/4jf)
7.30 Veya (ME) (2nd)
8.00 Bannock (ME) (UNPL)
8.15 Tartan Trip (ME)(2nd)

Only 2 winners for Saturday
I've had a profitable week though, and this particular project is in it's early stages. Need to go back through past ratings to check overall performance for longer period.

Mirror alone hasn't produced many wins but - Express, and when both are top rated 6 points or more clear  has done pretty well.

Will yesterdays good results continue?
The 6+ clear ratings today are;

1.50 Calrissian (ME) Unpl
2.00 Brave Boy (E) WON  2/5f
2.20 Autumn Sunrise (ME) 2nd
2.40 Zarwaan (E) WON 4/6f
6.20 Dancealot (M) Unpl
6.30 Treaty Of Paris (ME) WON 4/6f
6.40 Disclosure (ME) WON 15/8
7.45 Mississipi (M)Unpl
8.15 Maputo (ME) WON 3/10f
8.25 Akeed Dubawi (ME) 2nd

50% winners but poor prices apart from Disclosure

I've previously mentioned a system via Mirror Racing columnist Chris Forwood - backing the horses in a race that are 6 or more points clear on spotform ratings.

It's not a current priority of mine but keeping one eye on it.
The same could be said of the Daily Express ratings, as if it works for one then why not the other.

Chris Forwood added another quailfier - noth Mirror Tipsters (Newsboy & Bouverie) must also tip the horse.

Today there are quite a few horses clear on ratings (M for Mirror, E for Express, and ME when both 6 points or more clear)
2.10 Autumn Tide (M) AND Touch The Clouds (E) both Mirror tipsters go for Autumn Tide
2.20 Tobougg Happy (ME) both Mirror tipsters selection

3.00 Statutory (E)
3.10 Centaurius (M) both Mirror tipsters go with Telescope

4.10 Thouwra (ME) neither tipsters select this dodgepot

4.40 Grandiloquent (M) both tipsters select Iceman George

A tremendous day overall for "Spot" picks.
20 winners from 33 races (two double spots where non runners)
A level stake profit from backing all the spot runners of approx 33 points

The horses clear by 6+ points provided 4 out of 6 winners in daytime (forgot to point out that Telescope was an Express 6 points clear)
The evening races provided  even better results with all 5 winning
Adhwaa 3/1 (E)
Quick Wit 5/6f (E)
Andhesontherun 11/8 (ME)
Ortac Rock 13/8 (E)
Fire Fighting 7/4(M)

A change from the ratings, speed etc and going back to Race Stats
HAYDOCK “OLD NEWTON HCP” B 12f

Opinion
Has to overcome the stats that no previous winner had won LTO within 14 days
No previous winner won B hcp in current year

Sir Graham Wade
This one is a Haydock specialist like last year’s winner Number Theory.  The difference is that he is a Group horse and Number Theory was a progressive handicapper.  Has never won this time of year and M.J has a poor record in this race.

Strictly Silver
Not proven over Track or distance.  The B win hcp in March goes against him.

Beaumont’s Party
A 6yo and they are permissible (must have) to have won B hcp in current year. This one has only won at D grade, but ran a close 2nd in Listed Hcp.

Communicator
Never ran at Haydock but the B win at Chester (other North West track) last year is a good alternative. Doesn’t win often though.

Highland Castle
Has won at Haydock (this time of year)  and last ran in key race at Royal Ascot (won by Opinion). It had previously won a B hcp though.

Hanoverian BaronThis one was favourite (unplaced) for this race 2010 after a win in B hcp at York .  Ran a cracking race when just beat at York but now 8yo and that would be oldest horse to win in 24 yrs.

Scatter Dice
Two B hcp wins on trot as 3yo ruined his handicap race hopes and hadn’t done much since until running close in Pitmans Derby. No winner of todays race came from Newcastle race

QuixoteBeen running fairly well over longer distances but up in Official ratings. No record at Haydock either.

Fennel BayThree wins over 12f but M.J is very particular with this one and runs it over varying distances.   Second on only run at Haydock but strong challenge just held over 10f. Won two B hcps as 3yo including one at Royal Ascot. Attempting to follow up a C hcp win at Thirsk and could be M.J’s best chance of his four in the race. Has won this time of year and likes G/Firm ground.

RESULT:
M.J finally wins the race with lightly raced filly Star Lahib 8/1
The selection Fennel Bay 3rd 20/1

Angel Gabriel
This one has been given time between races this year with just the one race each month (unlike 2 last year). That has paid off with a win at Ascot over todays distance.  Also a B hcp win last year, but this is a first visit to Haydock.

Haylaman
Only two races over 12f and despite 4 North West runs has failed to win

Franciscan
The third Doctor Kowash runner - to the two immediately above.  A C&D winner and two wins from three at the track but lacks much encouragement in this grade with 3 runs.

TepmokeaHasn’t won since May 2011 and runs on snow and AW probably not good enough to win this.

Star LahibLightly race with 6 races and a big jump up in class – but M.J often tests his horses in this grade to gain experience.

IcebusterTwo good runs from three at Haydock but previous 5yo winners  have had better form.

Roman Flight
Another 5yo with too much on it’s plate in this

These races are always difficult to find the one horse that might win the race.
I'm going against the stats with M.J who has ran numerous horses in this race over the years without a win, but Fennel Bay is selected

RESULT
M.J finally wins the race with filly Star Lahib 8/1
Fennel Bay 3rd 20/1