Pinza

After a couple of "lays" went astray yesterday I need to be more careful. Mainly not to lay the probable best horse in the race (The Fugue) or laying in a race that has several runners withdrawn (Our Obsession).

I'm not that keen on laying but there's not many stand out winners and after time spent researching a race, feel the need to get a result - maybe result is not the right word!.

Today looked at 13.55 York
Stoute gets quite a few LB (long break) winners at York.
Gospel Choir is the runner today but further research shows that this later in season the less the winners and more importantly most of his hcp winners have been over 10f as opposed to todays 12f race.

Sticking with Stoute, Ryan Moore has always given a favourable mention about Pavlosk. The give in the ground is certainly evident today and back in grade to Gp 3 should assist. Also it's a course winner so everything seems to be right for today?

This evening Haggas send Heroine Required to Hamilton for a maiden.
My database tells me two things.
1. All four Scottish wins in this race type were odds on.
2. Trainer has never had a filly winner in this race type in Scotland.
So there's a plus and a minus (at current betting) to consider.

Haggas also sends Yarn up north to Newcastle and this is another filly taking on the colts. He's won twice with such at Newcastle and generally has god record there with fillies taking on colts/gelds over 7f to 8f.

The latter is the only confident bet today.