Pinza

[b]WINTER DERBY[/b]
This race was Listed from 1999 and Group 3 from 2005
On statistics you need to look for
Horse that has won on AW (50% plus win strike best)
Won over 10f or further
Won in last three runs
Won at least Class 2 race
Has run since previous November or, if not, had won FTO in any previous year
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
The only real surprise in 15 years was 25/1 winner Sergeant York – but that had AW strike rate, and win in last two runs.
Generally an improving 4yo with recent wins has the edge (7 wins)
Also the older horses 5yo up to 8yo with recent wins (5 wins)
The other two were senior horses 6yo & 7yo running after a long break (2 wins)

2014  Picks
GRANDEUR  *****
Won the trial and gets away with penalty for Grp 2 wins in 2012
Two from two in Listed races and Trainer mentioned he might have taken an engagement in Dubai after last win but comes here instead.
Sensible decision considering the long distance travel journeys in 2012 which seemed to take it's toll last year, when two long distance travel races came out negative.  Also no Dubai winter runner has come back to win this race.

DICKIE DOUGHTWYLIE **
Not quite 50% ratio on AW (1-3) but a listed winner at the track latest makes this one a decent bet at current price.
This one is too large a price but maybe worthy of a place bet

FAARAAJ ***
Has to overcome the statistic that says no horse has won this twice.
Very lightly raced last two years but produced a win in each year at Lingfield and is 2 from 2 at track.
If the favourite gets boxed in this could be the alternative
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Those are the three pattern race winners in their latest three runs.
Since this race became Group 3, out of the eight races, the last seven winners adhered to this statistic.
Sri Diamond won from draw 14 (2006)
The draw numbers that have failed to win (16 races) are 6,8,9,12,13
Those draws include Dick Doughtwylie and Farraaj !!


Others….
WINDHOEK ***
This one has ran in Meydan over winter and that would be the first such winner of this race.
Looking at Godlophin and their main trainers over the last 20 years this would be their earliest UK winner in Listed and Group 3 races.  Their AW win record features a couple in May but mainly it’s been October – November period, and often with a stablemate also running - to confuse the issue.

REBELLIOUS GUEST ***
This one does tick the boxes but lacks that Listed win.

ROBIN HOODS BAY
Similar to above but placed 2nd in this last year (3lb worse with Grandeur)

ANACONDA **
Thought Tom Dascombe had his best chance with Junoob in 2012 (unplaced)

To summarise.
Grandeur gets the vote with 5 star bet due to ticking all the boxes

RESULT:
1st ROBIN HOODS BAY 10/1
2nd WINHOEK 11/4
3rd AUSSIE REIGNS 33/1

UPDATE;
Take draw number 8 off the losing list.
The winner becomes the second horse to have finished 2nd in a previous Winter Derby race
to win (Premio Loco) and third to have ran previously in the race (Hattan)

Seven qualifiers this year is more than the normal.
I used to adhere to a winner in last two races, but that would only have ruled out Farraaj.

I thought Dave Mitchell - "Value Scope" in Daily Mirror summed up race quite well.
No horse rated less than 100 - ruled out Rebellious Guest (and 2 others)
Placed form in last race - ruled out Farraaj.
Winning form over distance - ruled out Anaconda
Experience at Track - ruled out Windhoek (and 4 others)

Leaving his four remaining - Dick Doughtwylie, Robin Hoods Bay, Grandeur and Premio Loco.
Due to the draw he went for Premio Loco.

The winner had never won a pattern race (last seven winners did), and his record at Linga
- 2 wins from 9 runs, is the worst of all past winners who had won at track, but he becomes the seventh winner to have run in February trial race there.

Windhoek maintained the Meydan runner record - no winners, but it was close. END

UPDATE;
The Lingfield race on Good Friday looked almost a re run of the Winter Derby
1st GRANDEUR
2nd DICK DOUGHTWYLIE
3rd ROBIN HOODS BAY

If only they had finished in that order on the Derby day!!!