Pinza

A change from the ratings, speed etc and going back to Race Stats
HAYDOCK “OLD NEWTON HCP” B 12f

Opinion
Has to overcome the stats that no previous winner had won LTO within 14 days
No previous winner won B hcp in current year

Sir Graham Wade
This one is a Haydock specialist like last year’s winner Number Theory.  The difference is that he is a Group horse and Number Theory was a progressive handicapper.  Has never won this time of year and M.J has a poor record in this race.

Strictly Silver
Not proven over Track or distance.  The B win hcp in March goes against him.

Beaumont’s Party
A 6yo and they are permissible (must have) to have won B hcp in current year. This one has only won at D grade, but ran a close 2nd in Listed Hcp.

Communicator
Never ran at Haydock but the B win at Chester (other North West track) last year is a good alternative. Doesn’t win often though.

Highland Castle
Has won at Haydock (this time of year)  and last ran in key race at Royal Ascot (won by Opinion). It had previously won a B hcp though.

Hanoverian BaronThis one was favourite (unplaced) for this race 2010 after a win in B hcp at York .  Ran a cracking race when just beat at York but now 8yo and that would be oldest horse to win in 24 yrs.

Scatter Dice
Two B hcp wins on trot as 3yo ruined his handicap race hopes and hadn’t done much since until running close in Pitmans Derby. No winner of todays race came from Newcastle race

QuixoteBeen running fairly well over longer distances but up in Official ratings. No record at Haydock either.

Fennel BayThree wins over 12f but M.J is very particular with this one and runs it over varying distances.   Second on only run at Haydock but strong challenge just held over 10f. Won two B hcps as 3yo including one at Royal Ascot. Attempting to follow up a C hcp win at Thirsk and could be M.J’s best chance of his four in the race. Has won this time of year and likes G/Firm ground.

RESULT:
M.J finally wins the race with lightly raced filly Star Lahib 8/1
The selection Fennel Bay 3rd 20/1

Angel Gabriel
This one has been given time between races this year with just the one race each month (unlike 2 last year). That has paid off with a win at Ascot over todays distance.  Also a B hcp win last year, but this is a first visit to Haydock.

Haylaman
Only two races over 12f and despite 4 North West runs has failed to win

Franciscan
The third Doctor Kowash runner - to the two immediately above.  A C&D winner and two wins from three at the track but lacks much encouragement in this grade with 3 runs.

TepmokeaHasn’t won since May 2011 and runs on snow and AW probably not good enough to win this.

Star LahibLightly race with 6 races and a big jump up in class – but M.J often tests his horses in this grade to gain experience.

IcebusterTwo good runs from three at Haydock but previous 5yo winners  have had better form.

Roman Flight
Another 5yo with too much on it’s plate in this

These races are always difficult to find the one horse that might win the race.
I'm going against the stats with M.J who has ran numerous horses in this race over the years without a win, but Fennel Bay is selected

RESULT
M.J finally wins the race with filly Star Lahib 8/1
Fennel Bay 3rd 20/1