Pinza

top    FORM    Track    Horse         days    Age
12.50y    44/2-3    LINGA    Belrog        15     4 (how many chances needed to break maiden)

13.25Y    3751-1    LINGA    Caminel    21 b     4 (Stats against hat trick)
13.25nb    5863-2    LINGA    Lujeanie   14 v     9

14.00Y    22-    LINGA    Pathway To Honour 54     3 (trainers other in same race well backed)

14.35Y    33/8-1    LINGA    Ruban      18 t     6

15.10Y    22121-    LINGA    Razor Wind   38     4
15.10nb    02316-    LINGA    Maverick Wave 42     4  (only half point behind top)

15.45Y    066-13    LINGA    Blue Aegean 3 h     3

16.20J    42511-    LINGA    True Course  43     3 (better option imo)
16.20J    54722-    LINGA    The Dapper Tapper 44 v     3

Colin Appleby has 4 top scores today. All have good chances but VERY wary of 2.00 race (which one of his two runners)

Top Scores
LINGA
1.30; Inestissement
2.00; co. Vejovis, Ragtime Dancer, Lady Charlie
2.35; BURNT CREAM
3.10; Shyron
3.40; COURSING
4.10; Honourable Action (trainer has 2 in race)

Wolv
4.15: SARLAT This has maximum score. Very unusual in apprentice hcp. The figures for high scores at Wolver in these races doesn't read well BUT 4yo's have a good record when top score.
4.45: La Dorotea
5.15: Mister Bob
5.45: George Baker
6.45: Sixties Queen

1.40;Y    SOUTH    Come Uppence 14 v     3
2.10;Y    SOUTH    Thorpe Bay 2 6x     6
2.40;Y    SOUTH    Pancake Day 14       3
3.10;Y    SOUTH    Danseur Noble 35     3
3.40;Jt    SOUTH    Hot Right Now 301     5 (Long Absence)
3.40;Jt    SOUTH    Queen Of Skies 9     6
4.10;Y    SOUTH    Different Scenario 9 6x 4

Today looks like it could be a day to follow the Appleby brothers 6 top score selections
Thorpe Bay and Queen Of Skies at Southwell
and four further Top Scores at Grt Leighs later
Guishan,It Must Be Faith, Majeyda, and Adili.

GLEIGH
4.40: Arkansas Slim 25
5.10: Oratorio´s Joy 10
5.40: Guishan 9
6.10: It Must Be Faith 11
6.40: Miami Gator 21 v
7.10: Majeyda 55 p
7.40: Adili 20

Top Scores Today
LINGA
top    Track    Horse         days    Age
12.50Y    LINGA    Violet Dancer 25J     5
1.25Y    LINGA    Golly Miss Molly 32 b     4
2.00Y    LINGA    Ershaad      33     3
2.30Y    LINGA    Mr Bossy Boots 30     4
2.30NB    LINGA    Jungle Bay 34 b     8
3.00Y    LINGA    Castilo Del Diablo 18 p 6
3.00NB    LINGA    Anglophile    5     4
3.35Y    LINGA    Franco´s Secret 7 p     4
3.35NB    LINGA    Club House    5     5
4.05Y    LINGA    Bertie Blu Boy 24 b     7

By the Wednesday system, Violet Dancer,Mr Bossy Boots, Franco's Secret have good chances.

KEMPA
4.30Jt    KEMPA    Littlecote Lady 7 v     6
4.30Jt    KEMPA    Doctor Hilary 34 v     13 Too Old?
5.00Y    KEMPA    Hollie Point 14     3
5.30Y    KEMPA    Millionaires Row 12     4
6.00Y    KEMPA    Moulin Rouge 22     4
6.30Y    KEMPA    Volunteer Point 35     3
7.00Y    KEMPA    St Paul´s Square 7 b     3
7.30Y    KEMPA    Warbond 14 p        7
7.30NB    KEMPA    Youm Jamil 36 t     8
8.00y    KEMPA    Habeshia 15 p       5

By the Wednesday system Moulin Rouge has a good chance.

Todays qualifiers
top    Horse          days    Age
Top    Dubawi Diamond 14 b1     3

Top    General Tufto 7 6xb     10

Jt    Zac Brown 9 6xh     4
Jt    Scarborough 7 6x     4

Jt    The Lock Master 19     8
Jt    Deuce Again   18     4

Top    Baytown Kestrel 47 p     4

Top    Greenhead High 12 v     7
NB    Sleet 7 b     4

General Tufto tries the hat trick of wins as a 10yo.
He surprised me last time.
Only one horse has won so far this year with same scenario -
Sabre Rock.
Thomas Blossom and Tsarglas are recent odds on failures.

A couple of class 2 races at Southwell today
2.30: Zac Brown and Scarborough both have to overcome their penalties. There are not enough such races at Southwell to make a comparison for penalties in this grade.
If one takes the FLAT data (2012-13) in 5f sprints there appears a total absence of winners from 10 races (4 ran 2nd and 4 of those in photo finish) and 9 failed last year (7 races).

I prefer Woolfall Sovereign on its form in this race type.
4 wins and two off the back of a win lto.

Top Scores Today
1.10 Shawkantango (after non-runner Captain Whoosh)
1.40 Urban Castle
2.10 What Usain
2.40 Warden Bond
3.10 Stanlow NB Spokesperson
3.40 Persona Grata
4.10 Whitchurch
4.40 Park Place

The only study so far completed relates to 4.10 race
Andrew Balding has not had great success with 3yo in maiden races at this time of year (Jan Feb)
The winners that he has had were mostly shorter than todays distance and mainly at Linga.

Mark Johnston doesn't match up either with FTO runners in these races.
That doesn't guarantee that neither will win, but the value is elsewhere imo.

The best today should be Warden Bond.

top    Horse                days    Age
1.05:    Indian Affair       22 t     5 These two are both Milton Bradleys runners!
1.05:nb    Hamis Al Bin        22 t     6

1.35:co    Shotgun Start      10 p     5
1.35:co    Baltic Prince        15     5
1.35co    Mambo Spirit         14     11 Too old

2.05:    Barwah            4 6xt     4
2.05:nb    Polar Kite         27 h     7

2.35:    Rock Charm           19     4

3.05:    Evident              11     5 This one has the Maximum score

3.35:    Hallelujah           53     7

4.05:J    Aldeburgh            11     6 spent about 2 hours on this race as result of Robsters  post
4.05:J    Thane Of Cawdor      27     6 I conclude with an unconfident pick with Sexy Secret

4.35:    Tsarglas            16 v     4

12.50: Crakehall Lad 13
1.25: Emirates Skycargo 12
2.00:jt  Diamond Charlie 14 p
2.00:jt  Mishaal 51
2.35: Lunar Deity 6
3.10: Thataboy 26
3.45: Azure Amour 26 v1

Lunar Diety has maximum score today
The form does not appear good enough as it's a big jump from class 4 to class 2, but an interesting Jockey booking. The spot is from both sources for this today.
Only 6 days since run is not the normal for winners at this grade.

Tarooq with very similar form as 6yo finished a very close 2nd here in Jan 2012
George Guru (5yo) won in March here same year with similar form

Records over 3 years show that horses with last 2 winning runs do not often win in races over 8f in this grade on AW (Melvin The Grate)

Mild interest in Tom Dascombe who sends three here today (Thataboy)
Recent data shows that on Saturdays Top Scores with CD and high weights can win.

Pretty straight forward today as no joint tops.
12.50: El Che 14
Chance as good as any in this maiden and Trainer won recent maiden.

1.20: Sabre Rock 7 6xt
Going for a fourth win on trot.

1.50: Precision Five 149 p
This has had a long break

2.25: Meddling 37

2.55: Anglophile 27
Has best RPR& TS.Those are a BIG plus in these races and Appleby has as good record with this strategy. A Pro Bet.

3.30: Pearl Blue 28
Osbourne runs two in this and the other Amadeus Wolf is Next Best on the scores.
PB entered in B conditions race at Kempa and a Seller in next few days. She is really a 5f specialist but unused to racing at this time of year.

4.00: Mighty Mambo 34J tp
A national hunt run latest. That is OK for a race of this distance.

4.15: Little Choosey 8 6xtb
Trying to follow up recent win,like Boboli Gardens last night, and this has the advantage of C&D win

4.45: Arashi 7 v
An older runner but this age group is OK at this distance

5.15: Solar Deity 21 p
This is possibly another Pro Bet as it has the RPR & TS in it's favour

5.45: Harwoods Star 4 t
Wary of lack of track or distance win

6.15: Little Lord Nelson 14 t
A maiden win at the track on latest run. Beat El Che our first race of day.

6.45: Symbolic Star 257
A low priced Long break horse. Always risky in these maidens.

They are not all going to win but would expect some will today
More research to do but there's the housework, shopping and banking to do.

Not a very interesting meeting today
top    Horse                days
4.25     Hell Of A Lord 7 p

5.00Jt    Elhaam 10
5.00Jt    Mandy Layla 7

5.35    Street Artist 14

6.10    Naval Action 10 6xb

6.40Jt    Berlusca 19
6.40Jt    Warfare 7 6x

7.10    Piccolo Express 13
7.10nb    Boboli Gardens 8 6x

Update
Been doing some research.
5.00 Not keen on either and rate Barbs Princess as best.

7.10 These races tend to be won by a horse that has a recent placing.
That gives the top seven to pick from!
Boboli Gardens carries a penalty. From a list of past winners of this grade race 7 won with a penalty but 6 had a Course win or CD to their credit. Whilst Boboli G is top weight  (Like 6 of the 7 winners) he only has a distance win - Only 1 winner in 9 qualifying races.