Pinza

UPDATE Sat 23rd
Almost a full house
Advice was to avoid the three Double Top selects and they all got beat.
Advised a bet on Mafi won 6/1 (9.6 taken)
I say almost because just going by the 2 day decs I missed another Double Top in Sail Home (won 5/2f)
It get's difficult keeping on top of everything.
Downloading the update results and decs in the evening it became apparent that Sail Home had been upgraded to a Double Top sinnce the 2 day decs.


A winner yesterday. Odds on but it all helps.

Todays [b]Double Top runners[/b]
2.00 Ling; Fearless Lad
4.10 Ling; Full Swing
7.00 Wolv; Impeccability

I'm ruling out Impeccability on the grounds that
1. filly v colts
2. running within 14 days
3. not supported by either Mirror or Express spot
4. In four years this race has been won by FTO runner on 3 occasions
5. Mackie's first Double Top runner and unable to assess

Full Swing
This horse ran over 12f on it's FIRST outing as a 4yo
Both those pointers are pretty unusual.

This is a snap shot of 4yo colt/geldings that had their first run over 12f on AW with their first run placings
Not every runner is included as the no hopers and small trainers were ignored.
Those that won are highlighted
Bhc & A wins         Buxted    1   
not win after        Kindlelight Sun   
not win flat        Street Runner    0   
never won        Maccool     0   
never won           Cloudy Bay    3   
not win yet        Story Writer    2   
never won           Lacey            5   
not win yet        Full Swing    2   
still ongoing         Wyborne    1   
not win yet        The Great Gabrial4   

Going back to 2006 I found 66 horses age 4yo that had their first run (UK) over 12f
Fillies/mares accounted for 26 and a brief check found only one that won a race (Belle Josephine)

The colts and geldings fared slightly better with 7 winners from 41 qualifiers
Overall it is not worth following horses that have their first run over 12f as 4yo - they never achieve much
Winners FTO highlighted
Buxted  #             Bhc, A win
Kindlelight Sun #    not win after
SUBMARINER   #        Bev DHc, Kempa Chc
Emerging Artist   #   Chep md, Newb Chc
Cape Rising  #        Ripon mdn, Hayd Dhc
War Poet   #          Thirsk two Dhcs, Don Chc
Wyborne   #           Wolv mdn

The matter relating to Full Swing is will it win today on it's THIRD attempt?
Looking at the below table those that didn't win on first outing produced one that won on 3rd outing (Cape Rising)

win/run/outing
1,2,3
1,
1,3,4
2,4
4,8,9
3,8
1,3
5,

On first glance at race I thought that if Full Swing was to get beat, it be more like a FTO runner
I see William Haggas runner (Kent Ragstone) has traded from 8.5 to a low of 2.4

This is a breakdown of Kremlin House stable runners that ran first race over 12f - all 3yo's apart from last (Full Swing)
not win
Won Warw 13Eh (drop in dist) & Dubai
never won
not win
Mdn win FTO & won Muss D Hcp 14f 5yo
not win UK, Two low grade wins Dubai
Mdn win FTO not win after
not win yet

I take it the reader fas concluded that I'm avoiding Full Swing today (and probably afterwards if it runs again)

Fearless Lad
John Bests three Double Top runners have all finished second. They were all maiden races and Lupo D'oro was having its 18th run when failing to win a maiden at Windsor - having finished 2nd on seven occasions. It did win two races later though.
I'll pass on this one also.

Others to note
Mafi 2.30 Ling
This one won at last years meeting.
Also won latest when bottom weight.
Looking at winners that won when bottom weight in Hcp, there is a fair probability that they will win again IF,
running at same track
same grade
same distance (or slightly shorter)

Dorothy's Dancing came close yesterday, but not a winner.
That's her third good race on trot, so doubtful if she will get a win in near future. This is her time of year but another weight rise would be against her - and she's not getting any younger.

Moving on, Just a simple approach today.

Double Top runner
6.00 Emperor Julius WON 1/3 (4/6 taken)
This one backed up with Mirror & Express spots
Best on speed (Double Tops usually are)
Also race trends (just 3 races) indicate all winners having first run of year, but one was FTO.

Strike rate of 64% in this type of race when Mirror & Express spot
Also Jo Crowley is a "purple" trainer on Double Top database with 2 wins from 3. (her loser was Emperor Julius when 2nd in 2yo mdn)
Both wins were odds/on.

UPDATE;
Never in doubt. Up behind leader and took it up and won with little effort.
Should get a reasonable mark considering todays poor field athough quite a few winners have come from it's previous races.

Double Top runners today
1.30 It's Only Business WON 4/5
3.05 Two No Bids UNPL
4.05 Amza UNPL
Not much confidence for any of those today.

Todays Observations mainly Using the Past Race Trends and Speed.
1.30 It's Only Business WON 4/5
Oddson runners with Course win have won this race last two years. The higher draw in a very small field is a support factor.

2.00 Hamoody 2nd 5/4
Past race trends indicate all 5 winners where placed LTO.
Also joint top speed with Drawnfromthepast.
The put off is Trainer record in cliamers over 5f on AW. Also apprentice Jockey (0-4 on horse) and bear in mind Seb Sanders has been riding
this lately.
Update; Notice that Seb Sanders won the race on 14/1 shot Wheres Riley

2.30 Dorothys Dancing [b]2nd (head) 3/1f
Not really a trends horse but CD winner has won last two years races.
This mare was pinpointed in a recent blog post 12 days ago, when I reckoned she would run well but wrong track.
Today it's her right track.[/b] Also joint top speed with Jonnie Skull.


3.35 Lager Time Unpl
The previous two winners of this race had both won twice as 3yo's and with a Distance win.
It's joint Top Speed with Hard Walnut. Also a C&D win is a plus.
Whether the 7lb claimer can get it home is the question?
Strike rate for apprentice claiming jockeys over 6f on AW last year in 3yo hcps 1 win from 76 rides (37 races)

Update; Lager Time looks difficult. Problems going into stalls. Always chasing field from rear, but to be fair
came to challenge for lead a furlong out and finished 3rd of 6. Thought the apprentice jockey did well, but maybe not
an apprentice ride horse. That was first time ridden by apprentice.

4.05 Azma Unpl
All 7 past race winners had won at least once in their last four races.
It's also Top Speed and has a Course win.
Another claiming apprentice rider - similar strike rate to above race though - 1 in 26 rides over 10f with 22 races.
Very promising jockey though!

6.00 Abigails Angel UNPL
Past race trends indicate the winners had best for figure on their latest (of six) runs. 2nd top speed to Whitby Jet.


6.30 Hurricane Spirit WON 1/2f
No trends but this one has Top speed, Mirror & Express Spot and is in good form.
Another apprentice but this is a claimer and trainer uses apprentice riders regularly.

7.30 Clear Praise UNPL
Race trends favour C&D winners (3 out of 4) and past winners all placed LTO.
Free Spin is a danger (favs finished 1st or 2nd when a field of 8 or more runners)
Note that Free Spin runs over a lower distance today (and has won over 8f). Only second
run for Barron after brought over from Ireland. Fear a run to get weight rating lower and
just might be a false favourite - only my opinion though.
Also Tioman Pearl won doing handstands on first run of last year (5f).
It shot up in ratings after though, but surely one to follow this year (reminds me of Steps).

Update; Free Spin 2nd keeping up record of fav finishing 1st or 2nd in race (when 8+ ran)
Never really threatened to win over todays 6f but ran on late to be placed. David Barron will have
something in mind for this one.
Tioman Pearl up with leader from stsrt but faded. Roger Varian should find a 5f Hcp to win with this one.


8.00 Life Of Laughter
No race stats and no speed rating but ran a good race on comeback.
Might have an e/w chance today.

I'll probably just have a fiver or two on Dorothys Dancing
Previous comments on Feb 8th

"A Lingfield specialist her track form reads  011/46/211/60/01
Has come to form in Feb and March although won as late as 4th April.
Also has always, up to now, followed her Lingfield win with another win - but at same track AND never won two races on trot over 6f.

In fact when she hits form she stays in form for three or so races.

Only up 2 lb for recent win, she runs at Wolverhampton today over 6f - a track she has run twice over 5f without winning. It's a guess whether she will win today but might run pretty close if she doesn't. (Back to Lay option)

When favourite it has won 4 out of 6 races.

Update; Dorothys Dancing 2nd 3/1 fav
when she hits form she stays in form for three or so races"

Spending much more time analysing than betting lately.
Got back in the game yesterday with a lay bet on Bussa.
The gelding had been in form of it's life lately but surely after 8 weeks
of really good form the bubble had to burst soon enough.
Quite content with the one bet on a poor card.

Today have been looking at Double Top database and making comparisons to todays runners.
Roc De Prince 1.50.
Just a Mirror Spot for support as Express went with Gods Gift.
The main thing that put me off was the 131 days lay off.
Also M.J. always to be feared. (That won)
Just seen result and wish I'd laid R D P but was far to involved with analysis to be aware of time.

Stand Guard 2.20 Another like Bussa - been in good form for long enough

Imprimis Tagula 3.25.
Apprentice riders don't fare that well on Double Top runners
The class 4 (D) grade race hasn't produced a winner in 12 rides.
It's not much of a lay though at 10's to 11's.
Occasionally I stick £25 on around Evens lay in running but not playing that today.

Mother Jones 4.00
Another apprentice rider on this in a seller.
Very few similar races for comparison but it's 0-4

Roll on the Flat - but still loads to do before then.

UPDATE
No winners for Double Top
2 beaten favs

After another day off yesterday went through more data analysis in readiness for Flat.
Comparing a trainers data by odd years v even years.
I've done just about everything else with this trainer...
Months, Distances, tracks, Race Types, grades,days since run, FTO, Long breaks, shorter breaks and form figures.

TODAYS RACING (Trying to keep a healthy bank balance intact).

Three Double Top runners
Edwyn Ralph 2.00 Ling WON 5/4
King George River 3.40 Ling WON 6/4
Secret Advice 7.00 Wolv

I have an excel note for Simcock applicable for todays race
"No fillies, No Long Breaks, No sprints.
Edwin Ralph passes the test as far as those negatives are concerned.
Simcock has a pretty fair record with DT's
The negative is neither a Mirror nor an Express spot horse.

Alan Bailey is on the cold list as far as Double Tops.
Yet another apprentice riding his fourth DT selection today.
This race has been won by a winner last time out (WLTO) in all five runnings so far.
It looks a pretty hot race for the time of year.


Keith Dalgleish is a "purple trainer" with Double Tops, but Secret Advice is a filly taking on the colts today
and their record is not good.

Just a small stake on Edwin Ralph today RESULT WON 5/4f (2.9 taken)

For a slightly bigger stake I'm laying Free Thinking in the bumper at Fakenham.
Henderson has a poor record with a single run bumper winners.
Generally you can rely on his Mares on their first run but not necessarily afterwards.
He has won this race with WLTO1 runner, but that was a 4yo
The weight carried today is higher than any past winner of the race.

Interestingly Paul Webber has had a few FTO Mares race winners in February (Siksika)
RESULT; THREE THINKING won 2/5f
Another loss of discipline laying a Henderson bumper.

Following Broughton Thermal Insulation owned horses with Willie Musson can be profitable.
In Jan-March months backing the” Broughton” name runners in hcps win rate is near 30% mark (since 1994)
Over a distance of 12f plus it’s near 50% and over 16f almost 60% (in my database)

Lingfield 2.30; BROUGHTONS BANDIT has been lightly raced for a 6yo, but had almost a year off as 4yo.
Won it’s maiden in a 16f hcp at Kempton after running pretty consistently January to March 2012 (form 4221) - Then seemed to go wrong in May and had been off track since, until running a close 2nd over a lesser trip 20 days ago.

J P Guillambert probably wouldn’t be first choice jockey based upon Trainer/Jockey stats, but he rode him on latest run and keeps the ride.

It's a low class race today and the selections form, and previous setbacks, is not convincing enough to take 7/4 current price. I would expect 9/4-5/2, at least, today.

Today, it also has the right "system" credentials for a bet.
It doesn't match all 12 rules so Medium Staking.

RESULT; Rollin N Tumblin won, Broughtons Bandit 2nd 7/4fav.
Concerns were justified it just wasn't quite good enough.
Often Musson runners drift in price half an hour before race.
That was the case today, trading low as 2.5 took a big drift near off. My set bets 3.5 & 3.75 where taken plus 4.9 in running. Got out at 2's (like a lot of others (7k traded). Loss on race £4.

After a very good day on Saturday left the racing alone.
Yesterday a glance at the card didn't suggest much enthusiasm.
My early morning questions where...
How many maidens actually win over 12f on only their second run (Full Swing) and
How come James Tate has had 9 Double Top runners and all had failed to win,including 2 odds on? (Naru)
Not having the enthusiam to switch on the computer and research I finally decided take my wife to see Les Miserables.

Having this morning checked out my thoughts from yesterday the answers were..
Roger Varian / Mick Jarvis hasn't had many 3yo+ maiden winner over 12f on AW and NEVER before APRIL.

James Tate now has 10 D/Top losers and, including 3 odds on this year.
Surely Raceform have got the ratings wrong about Tight Knit, which has been DT on four occasions and twice beaten odds on.

So far this year Double Top have had 31 wins from 115 selected.
Hcp races produced 10 winners from 65 selects - 4 out of 5 odds on beaten (3 of James Tate runners)but showing neither a level stake loss or profit.

TODAY
Kremlin House stable used to have some Class 2 & 3 Hcp winners on AW early in year but they where mainly down to prolific winners Millville and Philatelist. I have no fancy or support for their runner today - Shahzan. At 11's it is not a decent lay price. RESULT Traded as low as 6's UNPLACED

Ian Williams is usually in double figures with winners by this time of year but yet to get off the mark this year.
Fluctuation won twice in late January last year in higher grades than this and was noted travelling smoothly when behind Flying Pickets in claimer won by Caledonian Prince. Could turn the tables today on his favourite track.  RESULT 2nd to Flying Pickets

Phillip Hobbs got rid of ex French horse Goldmadchen when Keith Dalgleish claimed him from a seller last August.
It's shown reasonable form over 12f, and down a grade today after just touched off here latest.  Joe Fanning hasn't ridden this since winning over C&D in November. RESULT WON 7/4

It's only small stakes though today.

UPDATE
Been doing some analysis of follow up on Newbury Listed race winners.
Ten past winners of the Newbury race ran in Cheltenhams Champion Bumper
5yo’s
Ericht 6th 5/1
Al Ferof  2nd 8/1
Crocodile Rock 6th 20/1
Iris’s Gift 5th 20/1
Golden Alpha 2nd 7/2
Mr Markham 5th 9/1
Andanito 4th 9/4
6yo’s
Karanja UR start 5/1
Cornish Rebel  12th 9/2
Frantic Tan 3rd 8/1
Three also ran in Aintree April Bumper
Iris’s Gift 2nd
Redde  unpl
Patriarch 3rd
Golden Alpha unpl
Andanito 2nd
SUMMARY
A Newbury  listed bumper winner has not won  either Cheltenham or Aintree bumpers.
The only one of the 15 past winners to win another bumper is ERICHT, who won a recent “Jumpers” bumper.
Novice Hurdles
Two fell on their first attempt and won on third attempt
Six of the 15 winners managed to win on their first attempt at hurdles
The same number (6) won on their third attempt
Two won on their sixth attempt
Handicap Hurdles
Just three winners from eight who ventured into Hcp hurdles
Novice Chases
So far twelve progressed to chasing and ten achieved wins
The best indication for chasing is the winners of their FIRST hurdle race. (not 4yo winners)
The 5yo & 6yo winners of Newbury bumper who won their first hurdle also won more than their share of chasing races.
Four of the five won their first Novice chase.
All that have ran in Novice chase managed to win apart from Patriarch (4yo) and Andanito
Handicap Chases
Three won on their Hcp debut from the seven that ran in these.

TO FOLLOW
ERICHT is probably worth following in similar “jumper “ bumper opportunities
Grade 1 hurdle runners tend to win Chases but  Ericht has not achieved that status.
Shuthefrontdoor achieved 3 hurdle wins but also lacks Grade 1 hurdles experience
Oscar Rock looks a decent prospect but would be a lay in Cheltenham Bumper or Aintree version.
Whether it could win it’s first hurdle race is debatable but surely win by third attempt on past events.

The better chance of backing winners from this race are Grade 1 hurdle runner in Novice Chases
Grade 1 hurdle winners tend to win most of their early chases whilst
Grade 1 runners  that didn’t win normally win their FIRST Novice chase.





Just two of interest today.

NEWBURY BUMPER
Oscar Rock RESULT WON 11/4

At the 4 day stage I marked 5 horses based upon past race trends.
Nicky Hendersons Captain Cutter, plus two of Davids Pipes haven't stood their ground, so there must be a good one.

Harry Fry's runner has won at Newbury and is taken as likely winner. The trainer already has a very good strike rate at track.

EMPOWERMENTOFWOMEN 7.50 is selected to add to the very good win rate of "Double Top" runners in Maiden Fillies races. RESULT WON 7/4


   Bumpers probably the easiest database to keep upto date
Average 1 race per day and usually the last race so plenty of time to check the data

The table below won't come out like excel layout but one will get the theme
The race was upgraded the year Patriarch won in 2000
Past winners normally off track for 6 weeks plus
won latest run (unless FTO)
Most had two bumper runs
Most, apart from 4yo's, had won over 16 or 17f


Taking all into account we are left with..
Guanciale - not ran at Punchtown like the 2 ex Irish winners
Oscar Rock - C&D winner and newish trainer has excellent Course record already
Joanne One -  Irish mare that won Listed race latest
Vago Collonges - unbeaten 4yo French import that has not run for 161 days.




NEWBURY BUMPER      HORSE..........POS.......SP........DATE.............AGE....DAYS........FORM......RUNS......GRADES

brk D    wlto2**    Shutthefrontdoor    1.    3.33    17/02/2012    5  .    62    .11    ASCOT F LAS    A F
brk    wlto2    Ericht....    1.    1.10    18/02/2011    5  .     43    .21    HUNT 14f ASCOT    F D
brk D     wlto4*    Al Ferof...    1.    2.75    13/02/2010    5 .      73    .F131    FAIRY PUNCH PP PP    E F
CD    wlto1    MAD MAX...    1.    2.75    09/02/2008    6.    15    .1    NEWB    F 
brk CD    wlto2    Crocodiles Rock    1.    1.88    10/02/2007    5.    43    .51    NEWB  FOLK    D F
brk D    wlto2**    KARANJA...    1.    14.00     12 Feb 2005    6.    55    .11    WINDS SAND    F F
brk C    wlto2**    Secret Ploy    1.    5.50     14 Feb 2004    4.    44    .11    CHELT 12f NEWB 13f    F F
FTO        Cornish rebel    1.    12.00     8 Feb 2003    6.    0    .       
LB D    wlto2**    IRIS'S GIFT    1.    7.00     9 Feb 2002    5.    147    .11    WORC WORC    F F
brk D    wlto2    REDDE.....    1.    14.00     10 Feb 2001    6.    80    .21    CHEP WORC    F F
FTO        Patriarch      1.    7.00     12 Feb 2000    4.    0    .       
LBX D    wlto1    Golden Alpha    1.    1.38     13 Feb 1999    5.    291    .1    PUNCH    E
LB D        FRANTIC TAN    1.    12.00     14 Feb 1998    6.    97    .6    WARW    F
LB D    wlto1    MR MARKHAM    1.    3.50     8 Feb 1997    5.    91    .1    SAND    F
brk CD    wlto2**    ANDANITO..    1.    1.38     10 Feb 1996    5.    87    .11    KEMP NEWB FF   

Just a bit of fun yesterday with Lady Calantha.
Looking at replays of runners previous runs I expected it to get lead unless Noseda's newcomer was any good (which it wasn't). After £2 win at 70's laid it for fiver at 22's but wasn't taken.
The fav was very well backed ito prohibitive odds and although won it wan't that impressive. Likes to stay up with pace but she doesn't appear to have much of a burst of speed.

I'd be interested to see Lady Calantha in a seller over a "straight" 5 furlongs. Seems once it has gone around a bend into straight she loses interest.

Today I looked at "Double Top" runner Dorothy's Dancing favourite for 5.30
A Lingfield specialist her track form reads  011/46/211/60/01
Has come to form in Feb and March although won as late as 4th April.
Also has always, up to now, followed her Lingfield win with another win - but at same track AND never won two races on trot over 6f.

In fact when she hits form she stays in form for three or so races.

Only up 2 lb for recent win, she runs at Wolverhampton today over 6f - a track she has run twice over 5f without winning. It's a guess whether she will win today but might run pretty close if she doesn't. (Back to Lay option)

When favourite it has won 4 out of 6 races.

Update; Dorothys Dancing 2nd 3/1 fav
when she hits form she stays in form for three or so races

After getting out of jail yesterday evening faced with a dire card today.

Double top qualifiers today. Hand In Glove and Midnight Dream

Both trainers are having there first DT, in my database.
My complicated system approach says no wins for Cowell or Noseda.

Wolverhampton has worst record for odds-on wins when DT and in 3yo & 3yo maiden races.
Just 2 wins from 6 races - compared to 1-1 Southwell (Naalatt yesterday) 6-8 Kemp & 6-7 Lingf

Also to add Shane Kelly has ridden 11 Double Top runners without a winner, including two favs (one odds on)

Jeremy Gask had two in the race when Green Millionaire (8/1) had his debut and his other at 33/1 beat him.
Alan Berry's Lady Calantha came from Richard Hannon and finished 2nd 80/1 when led on first race for Berry.

All that probably doesn't mean much in this 4 runner maiden field but will be interested to see result.

What's going to win?  Probably a filly (3 in race) and my £2 today is on the 70/1 shot.