Pinza

UPDATE
Been doing some analysis of follow up on Newbury Listed race winners.
Ten past winners of the Newbury race ran in Cheltenhams Champion Bumper
5yo’s
Ericht 6th 5/1
Al Ferof  2nd 8/1
Crocodile Rock 6th 20/1
Iris’s Gift 5th 20/1
Golden Alpha 2nd 7/2
Mr Markham 5th 9/1
Andanito 4th 9/4
6yo’s
Karanja UR start 5/1
Cornish Rebel  12th 9/2
Frantic Tan 3rd 8/1
Three also ran in Aintree April Bumper
Iris’s Gift 2nd
Redde  unpl
Patriarch 3rd
Golden Alpha unpl
Andanito 2nd
SUMMARY
A Newbury  listed bumper winner has not won  either Cheltenham or Aintree bumpers.
The only one of the 15 past winners to win another bumper is ERICHT, who won a recent “Jumpers” bumper.
Novice Hurdles
Two fell on their first attempt and won on third attempt
Six of the 15 winners managed to win on their first attempt at hurdles
The same number (6) won on their third attempt
Two won on their sixth attempt
Handicap Hurdles
Just three winners from eight who ventured into Hcp hurdles
Novice Chases
So far twelve progressed to chasing and ten achieved wins
The best indication for chasing is the winners of their FIRST hurdle race. (not 4yo winners)
The 5yo & 6yo winners of Newbury bumper who won their first hurdle also won more than their share of chasing races.
Four of the five won their first Novice chase.
All that have ran in Novice chase managed to win apart from Patriarch (4yo) and Andanito
Handicap Chases
Three won on their Hcp debut from the seven that ran in these.

TO FOLLOW
ERICHT is probably worth following in similar “jumper “ bumper opportunities
Grade 1 hurdle runners tend to win Chases but  Ericht has not achieved that status.
Shuthefrontdoor achieved 3 hurdle wins but also lacks Grade 1 hurdles experience
Oscar Rock looks a decent prospect but would be a lay in Cheltenham Bumper or Aintree version.
Whether it could win it’s first hurdle race is debatable but surely win by third attempt on past events.

The better chance of backing winners from this race are Grade 1 hurdle runner in Novice Chases
Grade 1 hurdle winners tend to win most of their early chases whilst
Grade 1 runners  that didn’t win normally win their FIRST Novice chase.





Just two of interest today.

NEWBURY BUMPER
Oscar Rock RESULT WON 11/4

At the 4 day stage I marked 5 horses based upon past race trends.
Nicky Hendersons Captain Cutter, plus two of Davids Pipes haven't stood their ground, so there must be a good one.

Harry Fry's runner has won at Newbury and is taken as likely winner. The trainer already has a very good strike rate at track.

EMPOWERMENTOFWOMEN 7.50 is selected to add to the very good win rate of "Double Top" runners in Maiden Fillies races. RESULT WON 7/4


   Bumpers probably the easiest database to keep upto date
Average 1 race per day and usually the last race so plenty of time to check the data

The table below won't come out like excel layout but one will get the theme
The race was upgraded the year Patriarch won in 2000
Past winners normally off track for 6 weeks plus
won latest run (unless FTO)
Most had two bumper runs
Most, apart from 4yo's, had won over 16 or 17f


Taking all into account we are left with..
Guanciale - not ran at Punchtown like the 2 ex Irish winners
Oscar Rock - C&D winner and newish trainer has excellent Course record already
Joanne One -  Irish mare that won Listed race latest
Vago Collonges - unbeaten 4yo French import that has not run for 161 days.




NEWBURY BUMPER      HORSE..........POS.......SP........DATE.............AGE....DAYS........FORM......RUNS......GRADES

brk D    wlto2**    Shutthefrontdoor    1.    3.33    17/02/2012    5  .    62    .11    ASCOT F LAS    A F
brk    wlto2    Ericht....    1.    1.10    18/02/2011    5  .     43    .21    HUNT 14f ASCOT    F D
brk D     wlto4*    Al Ferof...    1.    2.75    13/02/2010    5 .      73    .F131    FAIRY PUNCH PP PP    E F
CD    wlto1    MAD MAX...    1.    2.75    09/02/2008    6.    15    .1    NEWB    F 
brk CD    wlto2    Crocodiles Rock    1.    1.88    10/02/2007    5.    43    .51    NEWB  FOLK    D F
brk D    wlto2**    KARANJA...    1.    14.00     12 Feb 2005    6.    55    .11    WINDS SAND    F F
brk C    wlto2**    Secret Ploy    1.    5.50     14 Feb 2004    4.    44    .11    CHELT 12f NEWB 13f    F F
FTO        Cornish rebel    1.    12.00     8 Feb 2003    6.    0    .       
LB D    wlto2**    IRIS'S GIFT    1.    7.00     9 Feb 2002    5.    147    .11    WORC WORC    F F
brk D    wlto2    REDDE.....    1.    14.00     10 Feb 2001    6.    80    .21    CHEP WORC    F F
FTO        Patriarch      1.    7.00     12 Feb 2000    4.    0    .       
LBX D    wlto1    Golden Alpha    1.    1.38     13 Feb 1999    5.    291    .1    PUNCH    E
LB D        FRANTIC TAN    1.    12.00     14 Feb 1998    6.    97    .6    WARW    F
LB D    wlto1    MR MARKHAM    1.    3.50     8 Feb 1997    5.    91    .1    SAND    F
brk CD    wlto2**    ANDANITO..    1.    1.38     10 Feb 1996    5.    87    .11    KEMP NEWB FF