Pinza

Double Top runners today
1.30 It's Only Business WON 4/5
3.05 Two No Bids UNPL
4.05 Amza UNPL
Not much confidence for any of those today.

Todays Observations mainly Using the Past Race Trends and Speed.
1.30 It's Only Business WON 4/5
Oddson runners with Course win have won this race last two years. The higher draw in a very small field is a support factor.

2.00 Hamoody 2nd 5/4
Past race trends indicate all 5 winners where placed LTO.
Also joint top speed with Drawnfromthepast.
The put off is Trainer record in cliamers over 5f on AW. Also apprentice Jockey (0-4 on horse) and bear in mind Seb Sanders has been riding
this lately.
Update; Notice that Seb Sanders won the race on 14/1 shot Wheres Riley

2.30 Dorothys Dancing [b]2nd (head) 3/1f
Not really a trends horse but CD winner has won last two years races.
This mare was pinpointed in a recent blog post 12 days ago, when I reckoned she would run well but wrong track.
Today it's her right track.[/b] Also joint top speed with Jonnie Skull.


3.35 Lager Time Unpl
The previous two winners of this race had both won twice as 3yo's and with a Distance win.
It's joint Top Speed with Hard Walnut. Also a C&D win is a plus.
Whether the 7lb claimer can get it home is the question?
Strike rate for apprentice claiming jockeys over 6f on AW last year in 3yo hcps 1 win from 76 rides (37 races)

Update; Lager Time looks difficult. Problems going into stalls. Always chasing field from rear, but to be fair
came to challenge for lead a furlong out and finished 3rd of 6. Thought the apprentice jockey did well, but maybe not
an apprentice ride horse. That was first time ridden by apprentice.

4.05 Azma Unpl
All 7 past race winners had won at least once in their last four races.
It's also Top Speed and has a Course win.
Another claiming apprentice rider - similar strike rate to above race though - 1 in 26 rides over 10f with 22 races.
Very promising jockey though!

6.00 Abigails Angel UNPL
Past race trends indicate the winners had best for figure on their latest (of six) runs. 2nd top speed to Whitby Jet.


6.30 Hurricane Spirit WON 1/2f
No trends but this one has Top speed, Mirror & Express Spot and is in good form.
Another apprentice but this is a claimer and trainer uses apprentice riders regularly.

7.30 Clear Praise UNPL
Race trends favour C&D winners (3 out of 4) and past winners all placed LTO.
Free Spin is a danger (favs finished 1st or 2nd when a field of 8 or more runners)
Note that Free Spin runs over a lower distance today (and has won over 8f). Only second
run for Barron after brought over from Ireland. Fear a run to get weight rating lower and
just might be a false favourite - only my opinion though.
Also Tioman Pearl won doing handstands on first run of last year (5f).
It shot up in ratings after though, but surely one to follow this year (reminds me of Steps).

Update; Free Spin 2nd keeping up record of fav finishing 1st or 2nd in race (when 8+ ran)
Never really threatened to win over todays 6f but ran on late to be placed. David Barron will have
something in mind for this one.
Tioman Pearl up with leader from stsrt but faded. Roger Varian should find a 5f Hcp to win with this one.


8.00 Life Of Laughter
No race stats and no speed rating but ran a good race on comeback.
Might have an e/w chance today.

I'll probably just have a fiver or two on Dorothys Dancing
Previous comments on Feb 8th

"A Lingfield specialist her track form reads  011/46/211/60/01
Has come to form in Feb and March although won as late as 4th April.
Also has always, up to now, followed her Lingfield win with another win - but at same track AND never won two races on trot over 6f.

In fact when she hits form she stays in form for three or so races.

Only up 2 lb for recent win, she runs at Wolverhampton today over 6f - a track she has run twice over 5f without winning. It's a guess whether she will win today but might run pretty close if she doesn't. (Back to Lay option)

When favourite it has won 4 out of 6 races.

Update; Dorothys Dancing 2nd 3/1 fav
when she hits form she stays in form for three or so races"