Pinza

UPDATE Sat 23rd
Almost a full house
Advice was to avoid the three Double Top selects and they all got beat.
Advised a bet on Mafi won 6/1 (9.6 taken)
I say almost because just going by the 2 day decs I missed another Double Top in Sail Home (won 5/2f)
It get's difficult keeping on top of everything.
Downloading the update results and decs in the evening it became apparent that Sail Home had been upgraded to a Double Top sinnce the 2 day decs.


A winner yesterday. Odds on but it all helps.

Todays [b]Double Top runners[/b]
2.00 Ling; Fearless Lad
4.10 Ling; Full Swing
7.00 Wolv; Impeccability

I'm ruling out Impeccability on the grounds that
1. filly v colts
2. running within 14 days
3. not supported by either Mirror or Express spot
4. In four years this race has been won by FTO runner on 3 occasions
5. Mackie's first Double Top runner and unable to assess

Full Swing
This horse ran over 12f on it's FIRST outing as a 4yo
Both those pointers are pretty unusual.

This is a snap shot of 4yo colt/geldings that had their first run over 12f on AW with their first run placings
Not every runner is included as the no hopers and small trainers were ignored.
Those that won are highlighted
Bhc & A wins         Buxted    1   
not win after        Kindlelight Sun   
not win flat        Street Runner    0   
never won        Maccool     0   
never won           Cloudy Bay    3   
not win yet        Story Writer    2   
never won           Lacey            5   
not win yet        Full Swing    2   
still ongoing         Wyborne    1   
not win yet        The Great Gabrial4   

Going back to 2006 I found 66 horses age 4yo that had their first run (UK) over 12f
Fillies/mares accounted for 26 and a brief check found only one that won a race (Belle Josephine)

The colts and geldings fared slightly better with 7 winners from 41 qualifiers
Overall it is not worth following horses that have their first run over 12f as 4yo - they never achieve much
Winners FTO highlighted
Buxted  #             Bhc, A win
Kindlelight Sun #    not win after
SUBMARINER   #        Bev DHc, Kempa Chc
Emerging Artist   #   Chep md, Newb Chc
Cape Rising  #        Ripon mdn, Hayd Dhc
War Poet   #          Thirsk two Dhcs, Don Chc
Wyborne   #           Wolv mdn

The matter relating to Full Swing is will it win today on it's THIRD attempt?
Looking at the below table those that didn't win on first outing produced one that won on 3rd outing (Cape Rising)

win/run/outing
1,2,3
1,
1,3,4
2,4
4,8,9
3,8
1,3
5,

On first glance at race I thought that if Full Swing was to get beat, it be more like a FTO runner
I see William Haggas runner (Kent Ragstone) has traded from 8.5 to a low of 2.4

This is a breakdown of Kremlin House stable runners that ran first race over 12f - all 3yo's apart from last (Full Swing)
not win
Won Warw 13Eh (drop in dist) & Dubai
never won
not win
Mdn win FTO & won Muss D Hcp 14f 5yo
not win UK, Two low grade wins Dubai
Mdn win FTO not win after
not win yet

I take it the reader fas concluded that I'm avoiding Full Swing today (and probably afterwards if it runs again)

Fearless Lad
John Bests three Double Top runners have all finished second. They were all maiden races and Lupo D'oro was having its 18th run when failing to win a maiden at Windsor - having finished 2nd on seven occasions. It did win two races later though.
I'll pass on this one also.

Others to note
Mafi 2.30 Ling
This one won at last years meeting.
Also won latest when bottom weight.
Looking at winners that won when bottom weight in Hcp, there is a fair probability that they will win again IF,
running at same track
same grade
same distance (or slightly shorter)