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Jinxy's Trading Post Blog

Trying again

31 Jan 12 22:32
Lets try again with this one, I put him up at an abandoned meeting so here's hoping we have better luck with the weather at Newcastle tomorrow. Its always dangerous taking prices the night before but the 5/1 on offer at Bet365 was too good to turn down (best exchange price is currently 5.7). In the 3.50 at Newcastle Teerie Express is the horse I'm hoping will trade for us tomorrow. His last two races at this course has seen him finish third and first. Last time out, after a long lay off, he finished a fine third after taking it up 5 out he was headed in the closing stages, the second that day Sammy Spiderman has franked the form since. He should be fitter for that race and given that Jonathan Bewley knows the horse very well then he should get him to a prominent position in the latter stages of the races which should allow his price to drop and get us a nice trade. He has been available to trade in eight of his last ten races and should do so again tomorrow. Backed at 5/1 (6.0) leaves me needing in running lay off prices at either:

Lay off at 3.95 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.6 for a 1.3 all green or
lay off at 3.2 for a 1.7 all green profit.
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4.6 (4 Ratings)
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Oh dear is the amateurs

31 Jan 12 12:26
Its not so often I get involved in these amateur events but this afternoon in the next at Southwell Mt Williams has had some winner for this stable and is a decent enough jockey in my opinion. He is aboard Aaman who has a course record of 2/2 along with five wins or places from all weather runs and a decent record of three from six over the distance, both is wins here were over this distance and at this time of year in 2011, he is higher in the weights now but should still go well enough to get us an all green. He likes to go from the front but may well be taken on for the lead early doors in this race, you just cant tell sometimes with these amateurs. Whatever happens I expect him to be prominent enough for long enough to get us a good trade in the first race of the day. He is available to back at 8.8 which leaves us needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 5.7 for a 1 pt al green or
Lay off at 5.2 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 4.7 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.
Rate post:
4.6 (4 Ratings)
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Anyone seen Clint?

30 Jan 12 16:06
Taking a break from doing other things this afternoon as I think inn the next the 5.10 at Wolves that I can get a trade from the three year old gelding trained by Jamie Osbourne by the name of a Fistful Of Dollars. Just four career races to date, all on the all weather and in the last three of them he has traded down to at least half his Betfair Sp each time. He was staying on last time out over slightly shorter after getting his head in front at one stage and the extra distance this early evening might just be what he needs. Whether he needs it or not wont matter as long he trades for us of course. D Sweeney has the mount once again and so far he has had  Fistful Of dollars up there with the pace throughout and similar tactics should be enough for him to be prominent enough for long enough to allow his odds to drop and get us a nice trade. Available to back at 8.4 leaves us needing in running lay off price as follows:

Lay off at 5.5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.0 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 4.4 for at least a 1.7 all green
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3.7 (5 Ratings)
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Hinterland for me..

28 Jan 12 15:11
Big Bucks was as impressive as ever, amazing that his price was allowed to drift to 1.66 in running, great price !! In the next at Cheltenham I think Hinterland will give Paul Nicholls a possible winner. A winner of two of his three hurdle races to date and a decent second in the other, At 3.4 its a decent price to start from leaving us needing in running lay off prises as follows:

Lay off at 2.24 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 2.04 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 1.81 for a 1.7 all green profit. 
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3.7 (4 Ratings)
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4 Comments [ 1112 views ]
A hot favourite in the race, and he may be deserving of his status at the head of the market but winning a Conditional Jockeys handicap can often throw up winners that don't go on to do the business net time out and sometimes are over bet  because of the fact that they get in without a penalty. Nicky Henderson doesn't turn them out this quick very often and Wise Move may well hose in, but I'm going to go for a trade on another in form horse in the way of Spanish Cruise who has been on the drift this morning due to the weight of money for the favourite. Spanish Cruise has run well the last twice, as has Ministerofinterior who may also trade, for this jockey trading down to odds on both times and can run well enough again this afternoon to give us a trade in this race. Kelan Woods again takes 5lb off her and with Spanish cruise, if you look around the exchanges, available to back at 8.4 this would leave us needing in running lay off prices of :

Lay off at 5.5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.0 for a 1.3 all green or
lay off at 4.5 for a 1.7 all green profit.
Rate post:
4.6 (4 Ratings)
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12 Comments [ 1490 views ]

Lets role play

26 Jan 12 13:36
In the next at Newcastle we have a competitive Handicap chase with Tyrone House and Eyre square both in fine form but I'm looking to get a trade out of the Anne Hamilton trained gelding Rolecarr who has performed consistently well of late, he has been available to trade in four of his five chases to date winning two of them in the process. Up in the weights but he promises to be a better chaser than hurdler and today's conditions look ideal. Ryan Mania has the ride again today, when winning on him last time out he made use of the horse and had him there just behind the leaders for most of the race and when asked to make an effort he took it up two out and held on gamely, Similar tactics today should see us get an all green screen for some nice profit. He is available to back at a decent price of 16.0 which leaves us needing in running lay off prices of :

Lay off at 10.5 for a 1 point all green
Lay off at 9.4 for at least a 1.3 pt all green or
Lay off at 8.4 for at least a 1.7 all green screen.
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4.1 (3 Ratings)
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One from West Witton

26 Jan 12 09:57
                                                                                 26 Jan 12 10:04         

Far from my favourite trainer but I think we can get a trade from a horse trained at West Witton by Ferdy Murphy this afternoon. In the 3.25 at Warwick the conditions seem fine for last time out winner Ockey De Neulliac, following today's race he will be raised 10 lbs in the weights making sense to run him here. John Winston is able to claim his full 10lb allowance as opposed to 8lb when riding him to victory in a Conditional Jockeys Handicap Chase at Ayr making it 2 wins from 2 rides for him on this horse. He won that race without being asked a serious question, running off a mark of 115 in this he should go well enough in the latter stages of the race to get us a trade this afternoon. Its Ockey De Neulliac first for me, available to back at 7/2 at the moment with Ladbrokes and 5.5 on the exchaanges leaving us needing in running lay off prices of :

Lay off at 3.6 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.3 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 2.92 for a 1.7 all green profit.
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4.6 (5 Ratings)
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Mishrif to trade?

25 Jan 12 13:48
Sending from a mobile so hope it reaches its destination.

Probably needed the run last time out after a short break, prior to that his last run in a Class five resulted in a win and he is just 4lb higher in this today. Can be held up or ran from a prominent position. Has 1/1 over this course and distance and should go well enough for a trade. Backed at 6.0 which leaves me needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 3.9 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.55 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 3.2 for a 1.7 all green profit.
Rate post:
4.6 (4 Ratings)
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Mr Wades horse...

24 Jan 12 21:37
Trainer John Wade has horse he owns trained by other trainers, namely Chris Grant, Brian Storey and Keith Reveley, some with good effect. Its one of his trained by Chris Grant that I hope we can get a trade from tomorrow. Wade himself like the Edinburgh track and its here that Chris Grant sends Alpha One for his Handicap début running from what I hope is a lenient mark of 108. in his two maiden chases to date he has finished second both times, fairly well behind the winners beaten 12 and 14 lengths, but both the horse that beat him have gone on to win again, Time out twice more and is now rated 125 and Our Mick, again a further dual winner and now rated 132. Alpha One is also a six year old has plenty of improvement to come. So far over hurdles and fences he has traded in all seven races. Alexander Voy has ridden him in both of his chases to date and should manage to get him prominent enough in the later stages of tomorrows race to give us an all green screen, in a race where the top rated is off a mark of 110. Ladbrokes went 13/2 this afternoon, but not anymore ! He is available to back at 6.6 early doors this evening which leaves me needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 4.3 for a 1 pt all green scree or
Lay off at 3.95 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 3.5 for at least a 1.7 all green screen.       
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4.6 (4 Ratings)
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In form and in for a trade

24 Jan 12 13:17
In the next at Southwell I think that we can get a trade from the in form horse by the name of Mazij who is here looking for a four timer. The youngest horse in the race being just 4 years of age and the one with the most improvement still to come in my opinion. William Carson has ridden her in all her races in this country to date and he should get her into a challenging position at the business end of the race allowing her price to drop and get us a nice trade. Available to back at 4.7 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows :

Lay off at 3.05 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 2.8 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 2.5 for a 1.7 all green screen.
Rate post:
4.6 (4 Ratings)
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9 Comments [ 869 views ]

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