Jinxy1

Its quite rare that I will attempt a trade with a horse first time out over the bigger obstacles but In the 3.10 at Folkestone I think that the lightly raced Your So Vain trained by Warren Greatrex could well be good enough to trade for us today. The trainer has a very fair 16% strike rate with his chasers and the bare fact that he has decided to throw the gelding straight into handicap company for his first attempt is enough to persuade me to trade on this one this afternoon. Just four career races so far has seen Your So Vain register wins at this course twice from two runs and he has been second at Newbury whilst being available to trade in all four races. Available to back at 8.4 leaves us needing in running prices to lay off for a trade of:

Lay off at 5.5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.0 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 4.4 for a 1.7 all green profit.

In the 2.00 at Catterick Time Out won a maiden over this course and distance last time out and won so well that he is worth backing again today at 2.58 despite a rise in the weights. Hopefully the tactics will be the same in that the lightly raced gelding will go from the front once again and attempt to make all on this track which is perfect for front runners. Backed at 2.58 to lay off in running at around the 1.4 mark for a free bet.

A race for veterans only takes the eye at Haydock Park at 2.00 this afternoon, I'm thinking that a horse coming back for his second race following quite a lay off may well be good enough to get us a trade out of this race. Kilcrea Asla in the horse in question, he still seems well handicapped for a race of this nature and should go well enough. He has been available to trade in nine of his last ten races, the one where he failed was over the 4 miles plus of Uttoxeter's Midland Grand National. Todays trip and ground pose no problems and getting in here off bottom weight is a big plus. Available to back at 11 leaves us needing in running lay off prices of :

Lay off at 7.2 for a minimum 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 6.4 for a minimum 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 5.8 for at least a 1.7 all green

Not great racing today but at a big drifting price it may be worth taking a chance on a horse trading at a nice big price in the 3.40 at Haydock, the lightly raced six year old who won last time out in this grade and in his first attempt in a handicap is Cococabana, raised just 4lb for that and he could go well again today under the same 10lb claimer. Last time out he came from a long way off the pace and traded as high  400 on Betfair so we may have to wait to get our trade until then closing stages but he is worth taking a chance with. 20/1 at the bookies and trading at 30 on betfair and other exchanges, he has to be over priced and I would think that sort of price will not last long this morning, it leaves us needing in running or pre race trades of as follows:

Lay off at 19.5 for a one point all green or
Lay off at 17.5 for at least a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 16.0 for a 1.7 all green profit.

In the next, the first at Wolves, a poor price but at 2.14 Peace Seeker seems a good bet here. Full steam ahead for me on this one, good luck.

Some trades for today on the turf for the blog, (not my all weather ones) the first one is at Catterick and goes in the 1.20.


1.20 at Catterick, La Panterosa could be worth siding with for trading purposes this afternoon, the gelding has beaten only three horses home in two races so far this season and is dropped back into a Class Four race today where his record is much better giving weight away to others. Despite being out of sorts of late this strong travelling horse has managed to trade in his last nine races. Available to back at a big price. currently 14/1 at the bookies and available to trade at 19.5 on the exchanges leaving us needing lay off prices of :

Lay off at 12.5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 11.5 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 10.0 for at least a 1.7 all green profit

2.20 Catterick, Shadrack is the one to be interested in here, a win and two other good runs since being sent chasing, including in better races than this, Shadrack should go well enough today to earn us an all green screen, I like Sue Smiths chasers and with Richie McGrath back on board, up just 2lb for being touched off last time out, he should get us a trade this afternoon. Available to back at the bookies at 5/1 (drifting) backed on the exchanges at 6.6 leaves us needing an in running lay off price of:

Lay off at 4.3 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.95 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 3.5 for at least a 1.7 all green profit


3.35 at Leicester, on the drift at the moment out to 4/1 from 5/2 and out to 5.7 on the exchanges but all we need Royal Opera to do for us is run well enough to trade this afternoon. Ran well in his first handicap last time out finishing a good second and is left on the same mark for todays race, another class three, in four hurdle races to date Royal Opera has traded to evens or less in running in all four races. Backed at 5.7 leaves us needing in running lay off prices of :

Lay off at 3.75 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.4 for a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 3.0 for at least a 1.7 all green screen

       

A horse that has done us a few favours in recent times is trading at a huge price at the moment, probably due to the change in course and the higher grade of today's race. His win last time was at Fakenham and was the second successive year he had won the race, his only wins to date. However Prophet de Guye is still only six years old and its far to early to write him off as just a Fakenham specialist, he had ran well at Huntingdon the time before and has also ran fairly well in this higher grade in the past. Indeed he has traded in thirteen of his fourteen races to date and with the cheek pieces on again today there is no reason why he cant run well enough to give us an all green screen. Available to back at 23 and still drifting - 20/1 at JCorals, 23.0 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 15 for at least a 1 point all green or
Lay off at 13.5 for at least a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 12.0 for at least a 1.7 all green screen

   

In the 2.30 at Plumpton a horse who returned from a lay off of 207 days and ran decently enough finishing second in a handicap chase is Delganny Gunner. This strong travelling horse is having his second run for Neil King this afternoon and they have dropped him back into a handicap hurdle race, exploiting a lower handicap mark where he able to run from a mark 5lb lower. Normally ridden just off the pace he will be fit enough and good enough to still be there or thereabouts at the business end of the race to get us a decent trade. He has been available to trade in nine of his last ten races and has traded to less than 2 in his last five. Available to back at 5.4 would leave us needing an in running lay off price of:

Lay off at 3.55 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.2 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 2.88 for a 1.7 all green profit. 

A mare that is returning from a long lay off and making her debut over fences might not sound like the perfect combination but thats where I'm going this afternoon to trade. In the 2.00 at Plumpton the Sue Smith trained Jordan is the horse. The mare won her bumper here in testing going and was fairly consistent after that winning a handicap hurdle at Folkestone before finding the shorter distance not suitable after that at Sandown. Sue Smith can get them ready for their chase début and Jordan will have been well schooled. She has been available to trade in eight of her last nine races and barring a fall Tom Cannon should have in a position where she will be seen at least capable of making a challenge around four out and that should allow her price to drop sufficiently so we can get a trade, available to back at a big price at the moment, this yard can back their own so it is possible the price may dwindle prior to the off which would be nice, backed at 20 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 13 for a 1 point all green or
Lay off at 11.5 for a 1.3 loss profit or 2.8 win profit or
Lay off at 10.5 for a 1.7 loss profit or 2.3 pts win profit 

The 'trading horse' I have confidence in today goes in the very last race of the day at Kempton Park on the all weather surface, a Kyllachy filly who has been available to trade in seven of her eight races so far, Amber Heights has also been available to trade in all four of her Polytrack encounters to date, three of them being on this course, she shouldnt be far away today and Amber Heights can be backed at 5.4 which will leave us needing in running lay off prices as follows, all to our normal stakes,

Lay off at 3.55 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.2 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 2.88 for a 1.7 all green profit

Also available at 1.92 in the place market.