Jinxy1

In the 1.25 at Southwell a gamble on Brunello has pushed out the prices on other horses to the extent that we may have a trade in the race. The horse we are concentrating on has been running quite well over hurdles lately but has not had a flat outing since September 2010. On the flat though Extremely So won on soft ground at Yarmouth very easily in a stronger race than this before failing on Polytrack at Wolves, in each of her last ten races on the  turf flat the mare has shortened up in running generally being run from the front or just off the pace. This is her début on fibresand so its not a nailed on trade by any means, but the win on soft going at Yarmouth is enough to convince me that at the price its well worth attempting to get a trade out of her this afternoon. Available to back at 12.5 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 8.2 for a 1 pt all green
Lay off at 7.4 for at least a 1.3 pt all green or
Lay off at 6.6 for a minimum 1.7 all green profit or

Following some enquiries
Lay off at 6.2 for a 2 pt profit

There have also been some message from those of you who lay off all my selections at 2 or sub 2 and some of you lay them all at 2.6 or less so:

Lay off at 2.6 for a 7.3 pt profit after commissions (stake is 9.55 pts)

In the next at Wolves the 4.25 having been given a nice break I think that Spirit Of Grace could well provide us with a trade this afternoon, she had traded in six of her seven previous races prior to that last place finish at Lingfield and haven been given time to freshen up I think she will go well enough to get us a trade. Available to back at 9.4 leaves us needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 6.2 for a near 1 point all green or
Lay off at 5.6 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 5 for a 1.7 all green profit.

Sam Waley-Cohen has been the subject of many discussions of late but the guy has a decent overall strike rate of 15% and 18% this last twelve months. Today he rides for Charlie Longsdon in the 2.10 at Taunton on the gelding Time For Spring, its a fairly competitive Class 3 race with plenty in with chances. Time For Spring won a point at Bennesttbridge in 2010 before being bough and brought to England, after four  hurdle races which included winning a Class Two at Ascot he was sent handicapping and promptly won a Class Three handicap hurdle followed by a Novice Chase win and two decent runs in handicap chases. Back into Novice company today will suit this afternoon. In eight rules races so far he has been available to trade in seven of them which includes trading down to evens or less in all three of his races over the bigger obstacles. Available to back at 8.2 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 5.4 for a 1 pt all green screen
Lay off at 4.9 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 4.3 for a 1.7 all green profit.     

Nice One Frankie is from a stable in form and thats where I'm looking for a trade this afternoon, a slightly different staking plan this time, I'm on at 5.4 leaving an in running lay off price of 2.7 for a full two points all green. Staking is two points win and four points lay.

A sample of some of my trading ratings for the Wolves meeting tonight.

4.45 Red Cape, 4.6
5.45 Volcanic Dust, 14.5
6.45 Red Flash, 7.2

He did us a favour last time and can do so again, shortish price, straight win bet.

A horse that has improved no end since going chasing is where we are this afternoon looking for a trade in the 1.30 at Ludlow. The Robert Dicking trained mare Autumn Spirit seems to be getting better as she gets older and has improved in leaps and bounds for going chasing after a maiden hurdling campaign. In five chases to date she has traded to odds on in all five races winning three of them, would have been four but for veering right and falling at the last in her last race, and she was placed third in the other. The stable has a cracking 20% strike rate with chasers in the last twelve months or so, regular jockey Charlie Poste has the ride and the going and distance are not a problem. Normally ridden up with the pace or just behind it she should be competitive enough here to get us a trade. Drifting at the moment, pushed out to 13/2 (7.5) at Sporting Bet and is available to back at 8.6, and is still on the drift it appears, on the exchanges, which would leave us needing an in running lay off price of:

Lay off at 5.6 for at least a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.1 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 4.6 for at least a 1.7 pt all green profit

A horse at the top of his game goes in the nect at Lingfield, the 2.20 and may go well enough despite a penalty to give us a trade. The Mick Easterby trained Aeordynamic has run from higher marks in the past and should go well again today. He has been available to trade in eight of his last nine races including his last three, all on the all weather at Wolves. Paddy Aspell knows the horse well and having gone out to 6.4 is well worth a little investment, back at 6.8 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 4.5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.0 for at least a 1.3 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.6 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.

In the 12,50 at Lingfield I think we can get a trade from the Jamie Spencer ridden Satwa Laird. He has been running in better races than this and although his limited all weather form doesn't look that great he should be good enough here to be prominent at the business end of the race allowing his price to drop enough to give us a decent trade. Spencer has ridden him once before, keeping him up with the pace when finishing second at Yarmouth. This is the first run for this stable who have a 15% strike rate at the course and Spencer has a similar strike rate for the stable who have also had three winners from there last ten runners. Available to back at 7.6 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.5 for a minimum 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 4.0 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.

Its early doors and damn poor racing today but I think we can take a chance of getting a trade in the 2.25 race at Southwell in the shape of the Bill Turner trained gelding Six Of Clubs. The price will probably  drift because of the lay off, as its before 9 this morning right now and anything could happen yet.. He has ran decently enough after a break and all we want him to do today is trade, the last time he ran after a break he traded down to less than 5 from a Betfair SP of 46. In all, he has been available to trade in all of his last fifteen races which includes seven from seven at this course and five from five for this claiming jockey. In seven of his last eight he has traded down to odds on in running. Available to back at 8.2 leaves us needing an in running lay off price of:

Lay off at 5.3 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.9 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 4.3 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.