It seems that Midday comes on a lot for her first run of each season and has never managed to win first time out, but who could knock her effort last season giving weight away to Sariska? She will go close however the race is run today and its worth taking a chance on her to give us a trade now that she has drifted in the market. Backed at 2.6 means that we need a lay off price in running of 1.55 for stakes of £200 win and £335 to lay to give us an all green profit for the race of around £130. Or lay off at 1.7 to a lay off stake of £305 for an all green of £100.
The 4.00 at Perth is where we will try to eek out a trade today, when Betfred went 8/1 this morning then I thought that it was about as fair as can be, although he is running from a career high mark today so a drift nearer the time is not out of the question. Backed at 8/1 (9.0) means that to achieve a profit of £130 then the lay off price has to be as low as 5.6 for a £335 stake, however for just a one point profit then the lay off price will be 5.9 to a £305 stake. The conditions today will be fine for him, generally runs from the front and we need him to still be there around three fences out. The stable had a couple of winners in April from its few runners, Tom Siddall takes the ride, he is one from four for the stable. At the moment we are 6/6 trades on the flat but 0/1 over the jumps !! I hope this one makes it 1/2 over the jumps.
Three from three yesterday was pleasing with all three reaching the lower targets to achieve a 1.3 profit margin as opposed to our previously used 1 point margin. The back stakes will remain the same at £200 (2 pts) but the lay stakes will alter to £335 to give us a profit per successful selection of 1.3 points, an unsuccessful selection will still cost us a maximum of two points, although I'll continue to put up the alternative 'safer' option of one point. It will mean the trades to make 1.3 pts will be more difficult of course and the strike rate will probably be lower. So far we are 5/5 on the flat (or 6/6 on twitter) but one let us down over the jumps.
Nothing to trade on today although I've taken some 11/4 (3.75) with Paddy Power about Barefoot Lady, she would have finished closer in the 1,000 but for getting boxed in and there is nothing here with her level of form, the Guineas was only ten days ago and if some of these fillies werent good enough then...they might improve past her of course or maybe it was the distance, but Barefoot has the form in the book, if I can get 2.5 in running then I'll lay her off for a point or so profit.
Some selections will appear on Twitter via betfair as per yesterday where it was 4/4 there as I put an extra one there that also traded for 1.3 points.
Have a cracking day folks, and thanks for the kind messages.
A golden lay?
10 May 11 20:17
I was calling it a day but just couldnt resist the odds on offer of 12.5 about Gold Story in the last.A dog in many peoples books, placed so many times without winning for two different stables. Six times second here at Southwell from seven outings, fourth on the other occasion and available to trade every single time, back on fibresand after an outing on turf and upped to seven furlongs, two previous runs over this distance has seen him finish second and fourth and traded both times, cant see why tonight should be any different.
Backed at 12.5 needing an in runing lay off price of 7.4 (for £336) to give us a porfit pf £130 or lay off at 8.2 (for£305) for an all green profit of £100.
A late choice but Sagramor became of interest afetr drifting put to 6, a lay off of 3.95 required for a £100 trading profit or 3.55 for a £130 profit. Traded in all three of his races after his debut run and ran as though he would need extra distance in time so todays 8 furlongs should be fine. Fitness has to be taken on trust but we only need him to trade for us. Steve Drown as usual takes the ride.
In the 3.10 at Warwick this afternoon I'm hoping that the trail blazing Island Legend will do the business and give us a trade today. The front running gelding has yet to place on turf but improved immensely on the all weather recently with his mark rising to 80 after three wins. Back on the turf today and running from a mark of just 64 should give him a great chance of providing us with a trade from a lowly weight. Although yet to finish in the frame on the flat he has been available to trade on all six occasions regardless of jockey or conditions. Boyle Sports went 5/2 for a short while after the withdrawal of Your Gifted and that 3.5 is looking very decent at the moment. Needing a lay off price of 2.3 in running. Back an amount of £200 with a lay off amount of £305 for a level profit of £100 as normal.
The long term aim is to make 1.3 points profit per selection whilst still remaining at two points loss per losing selection. This will mean a lower strike rate but hopefully more long term profits. Todays bets would then become £200 win at 3.5 and a lay off price of 2.08 for a sum of £337 which if successful would yield an all green screen to the value of £130 after commission.
Not the Blur version but Sunday City is one that I hope will provide us with a trade today. Thought I wouldnt be around until Tuesday but just popped on for a quick look and this one may do the trick for us. Sunday has been available to trade in 8 of his last ten runs, loves to be up with pace or even making the pace, the going is not a problem and the jockey booked today O'Brien has ridden the gelding three times and traded on all three occasions. After a break of 165 days Sunday City was entitled to need the race last time out and for slipping badly approaching the bend would have been much closer that day. Currently 7.8 on betfair (6/1 at the books Hills and PP) which would leave a lay off price of around the 5.1 mark for a successful trade.
Its not always the best thing to do taking a price about a horse the night before the race, even more so when the race is not until 5.50 the following day, but Vanguard Dream seems to be overpriced to me at the moment. This is a drop in class for the Richard Hannon horse and he should be more than capable of making a bold showing at Ascot tomorrow. The form of his three wins as a two year old and more recently his form behind Frankel and Dubawi Gold give him prospects of at least trading for us tomorrow. Backed at 8 needing an in running or pre race lay off price of around the 5.2 mark.
Not sure how often I'll be able to post but a horse that I'm hoping will trade for us today is Shostakovitch in the 6.30 at Flos Las, currently 4.6 here on Betfair. Better known for his exploits on the all weather at Southwell where he has been in good form and a winner there three times. Although still a maiden on the turf he has put in some good shows without winning and can do so again today, despite a good second at Brighton last time out after a three month lay off he can still run off a mark 7lb lower than his all weather mark. He is two wins, three seconds and a third for this jockey and we will need a lay off price in running of around the 3.00 mark.