Jinxy1

Last weeks experiment at Dundalk went very well with 2/2 traded ( a winner and a second) I'm still in the experimental stage with this course and its characteristic's so will go in with small stakes once again. In the 6.50 race tonight a 14 runner one mile race I'm looking for Cathrine De Medici to perhaps trade for us. Not a quality mare by any means but she seems to like it around this track having had six runs here and she has shortened up in running each time, substantially on four of those occasions. Regardless of the trip she is generally up there with the pace and hopefully she will be there long enough for the price to drop and get us a green screen. Its always hard to call the price movements at this course as the liquidity is not as high as it is in the Uk races, but she is available to back at 10 (a drift is quite possible( which leaves us needing in running lay off prices at:

Lay off at 6.4 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.9 for at least a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 5.3 for at least a 1.7 all green.

Allegedly there should be no draw bias over 8 furlongs at this course, but I'm not so sure. She is drawn in stall 14 so we will soon know our fate, if the draw bias is low as some think then she may struggle to reach a prominent position. As I said earlier, its experimental and to small stakes.

The first at Wolves has been decimated by non runners which helps us in some ways. I think that we may get a trade from the now Tony Coyle trained Pilgrim Dancer, in the three runs that he has trained the gelding Pilgrim Dancer has traded down to 3.55 or below in all three races, at least halving his in running odds compared to his Betfair SP. Dropped in trip again today to six furlongs may just help him improve again. We may have to wait until the closing stages for our trade as he is generally held up from around mid division. He is available to back at 5.6 which leaves us needing in running lay off prices, all to our normal staking as follows:

Lay off at 3.65 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.35 for a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 2.98 for a 1.7 all green profit. 

The 2.40 at Catterick looks another competitive handicap but we might be able to get a trade from the consistent Teenage idol. The gelding has been available to trade in eight of his last ten races and can do so again this afternoon despite another hike in the weights for winning in the heavy going at Ayr last time out. It is competitive but he is available to back at 12 leaving us needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 7.8 for at least a 1 pt profit or
Lay off at 7 for a 1.3 profit or
Lay off at 6.4 for a 1.7 all green profit.

Bit Sire De Grugy has become a price that we can trade at, available to back at 10, leaves us needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 6.4 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.9 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 5.3 for at least a 1.7 all green.

In the first at Catterick at 12.30 I like the chances of getting a trade from the consistent, in this grade, Stanley Bridge. He has been available to trade in eight of his last nine hurdle races, including four times from four when ridden by Lucy Alexander, the conditions today are fine and there isn't a reason why he shouldn't run well enough to at least trade for us this afternoon. Available to back at 11.5 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows, all to our normal stakes:

Lay off at 7.4 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 6.8 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 6.0 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.

Since returning to the flat from hurdling and upped to two miles or so the Michael Scudamore owned and trained eight year old mare Red Current has been as consistent as can be. In three all weather races over two miles she has traded down to 2.42 or less each time from starting prices as high as 24.5. She remains in good form and a 3lb rise in the weights should not stop her performing well enough to get us a trade in the 2.00 at Lingfield this afternoon. The others in the race are not tested over this sort of distance so its difficult to predict how the race will be run, because of that its not a nailed on trade but one well worth the risk in my opinion. What we do know is that we may have to wait until late on during the race for our trade as David Kenny does hold the horse up to come with a late run. A small drift has seen the mare put out to 7 on the exchanges leaving us needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 4.6 for a 1 pt all green trade
Lay off at 4.1 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 3.7 for at least a 1.7 all green.

An eleven year old that has been given a chance by the handicapper and is down in grade this afternoon in the 3.25 at Chepstow is where we hope to get a trade today. The Ben Case trained Mark The Book is the horse in question. He is running in a class four race for the first time since winning over this course and distance just over two years ago, he will find this much more to his liking than the recent Grade 1 and Class 2 races that he has competed in most recently. Now running from a mark of just 114 he should strip fitter after his recent outing and should still have enough about him to run well enough for long enough to allow his price to drop in running and get us a trade. Over this course Mark The Book has a win and three seconds to his name from just four runs. Despite being pulled up three times in his last four races he has still been available to trade in nine of his last ten. Available to back at 7.4 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 4.8 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.4 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 3.95 for a 1.7 all green profit.

In the first at Lingfield the Emma Lavelle trained Royal Commission has shown up well in two bumpers trading down to odds on both times and is sure to have been well schooled for this. Up against an odds on shot but may still trade which is all we want. Available to back at 8.8 leavus us needing in running lay offs at:

Lay off at 5.7 for  1 Pt all green or
Lay off at 5.2 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 4.6 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.

The next at Kempton is a claiming race where the chances of the favourite are well advertised, but he has been backed down to a very short price allowing others to drift in the market to inviting trading prices. The style of running for Marajaa is to hold the horse up which should work in our favour trying to get a trade out of Spinning Ridge who has been allowed to drift to around the 14 mark. His style of running is to be held just off the pace and then make a challenge or sorts around the two furlong marker, more often than not when he makes that move, successful or not, its usually enogh for his price to come down enough to allow a trade to be made. He has been available to trade in nine of his last eleven races including a couple of claimers. Luke Morris knows the horse well now and a trade is on the cards. Available to back at 16 (2 points) leaves us needing in running lay off prices of, to our normal stakes:

Lay off at 10.5 for a 1 pt all green screen
Lay off at 9.4 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 8.4 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.


The more ambitious could lay off at:
5 for 6.4 pts to make an all green of around 4.2 pts
2.6 brigade will need 12.3 pts to make around 10 pts all green

When looking for a trade I like the unexposed type, in good form, not doing anything that it hasnt previously achieved, a jockey who knows the horse and if the stable is amongst the winners then its another bonus. In the 2.35 at Newbury I think that Kaybee fits the bill. The lightly raced seven year old has just the two Chase runs to his name but he won one and finished second in the other, trading down to 1.01 and 1.7 in the process. Prior to that over the smaller obstacles he had halved in price in both races over this sort of distance. In his two most recent races they have had him up there with the pace and I'm relying on that being the case again this afternoon which should see his price drop around four out to a price that will give us a decent trade. Kaybee is available to back at 12.5 leaving us needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 8.2 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 7.4 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 6.6 for a 1.7 all green profit.

Those looking for the bigger pickings laying off at 2.6 would be to a stake of around 9.6 pts to produce an all green profit of 7.3 pts.
Those laying off sub 2 or thereabouts need a stake of around 12.6 pts to produce an all green profit of just over 10 pts all green.