Jinxy1

                                                      17 Jan 12 11:16

Not great racing today with just the two meetings surviving the weather, the official going is good to soft at Ayr and that is where we will try and get ourselves a trade this afternoon. In the 2.10 the horse I'm looking at is the Lucinda Russell trained Quinder Spring. The grey gelding was sent Hunter Chasing early in 2010 and was unbeaten all season in that sphere winning six times and was well regarded at that stage of his career. Back under rules he won two chases late in 2010, during 2010and early 2011 he traded down to 2.1 or less in all six of those races. Given a break he needed the race when blundering away any chance at Catterick and then when last seen 48 days ago he was hampered at a vital stage but still managed to trade as low as 2.52 from 8.1 and finished fourth in the process. Down another 3lb in the weights today means he is on a favourable mark of 104 and with that in mind I think that Peter Buchanan should be able to keep him prominent long enough for his price to drop and get us a trade. Available to back at 6.0 with a possible drift to come, leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 3.95 for a 1pt all green or
Lay off at 3.55 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 3.2 for a 1.7 all green profit.



13.35

Pushed out to 5/1 by Ladbrokes and now out to 6.8 leaving in running prices of either,

4.4 or
4.0 or
3.6

in the 3.40 at Kempton a horse that has improved a stone over hurdles since his last run on the flat might well enable us to get a trade this afternoon. The Ian Williams trained Switched off has good for on the flat in the context of this race and although this strong travelling horse doesn't always see his races through he should do enough today at the business end of the race for his price to tighten up and get us a profit. He was available t trade in three of his last four flat races over this sort of distance and should his improvement have continued into this sphere then I hope it gets us a trade. Available to back at 22 leaves us needing in running trades at @

Lay off at 14.0 for at least a 1 pt all green or
lay off at 13.0 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 11.5 for at least a 1.7 all green profit 

I've never really got into the A.W. racing across the water so tonight is a first attempt at expanding my book. Mainly experimenting for small stakes only tonight, as I wont be around to monitor.


In the 8.20 Elizabeth Coffee is a fair sort for trading purposes, The filly has seven races over this course and has traded every single time and has a win to her name and a second place over to attempts over this distance here. Currently at 8/1 at the books and around 9.4 would leave lay off prices needed of 6, 5.6 or 5 to our normal stakes.

In the 6.20 Almadaa looks the most likeliest to trade here, all distances between 6furlongs and a mile seem to come the same to him and his trading record here is good, available to trade in nine from the last ten runs here and at this course and distance its three from three trading down to 2.1, 1.07 and 1.77 from Betfair Starting Prices of 8.5 and higher. Available currently at 5/1 at the books or 6.4 leaving us needing in running lay offs at either 4.2, 3.8 or 3.4

Its early doors for these races and drifts on them look likely looking at the bookie prices.

Not a great days racing by any means for a Friday but I would like to think that we can eke a trade out of a consistent mare in the 3.30 at Lingfield this afternoon. The Declan Carroll trained Poppy Golightly has been available to trade in nine of her last ten races on the all weather and should do so again on the polytrack today. Third three times lately, all on this course and she managed to trade down to 3.4 or less from Betfair starting prices of 12 or higher. Today Jason Hart can make full use of his 7lb claim, having only been allowed a 5lb claim last time out (App Race), they were beaten less than a length that day a similar forceful tactics should see us collect some all green. Its never easy to predict how the market will move on these low grade affairs especially this early in the morning. Available to back at 16 leaves us needing an in running lay off price as follows, all to our normal stakes 2 pts win followed by either 3.05, 3.35 or 3.75 lay off depending on the price you get and the profit you want:

Lay off at 10.5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 9.4 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 8.4 for at least a 1.7 all green.   

I'm not sure how good that the liquidity will turn out to be from the course known as Jebel Ali in the UAE but there is some decent racing on show and quite of few of our jockeys are over there for the meeting. In the 11.25 a former inmate of Sir Michael Stoute may not be good enough to win in this company but he will go well enough to get us a trade I think. Direct Answer shortened up in all of his UK starts, he has the help of top course jockey Tadhg O'Shea. Small stakes of course here because of the liquidity. Available to back on Betfair at 25 leaves us needing a tentative lay off price of 14.5 for a 1.3 all green with a little if unlikely win bonus.

With the Nicholls family having runners at Meydan today its left to Andrew Mullen to hold the fort at Southwell on today's trading horse. In the very last, the 3.55 I think that we may get a trade from the in form Greenhead High. The four year old gelding has bee running consistently well since switched to firbresand  , his four recent runs at Southwell have seen him at least half in price in running compared to his Betfair SP on all four runs, including once for today's jockey, the last twice trading to odds on figures of 1.3 and 1.09. Over this course and distance last time out he was a shade unlucky and running from the same mark again today he can go well enough to at least get us a trade. There is a chance he may drift today as the re opposing Marzovian finished in front of him LTO, he is an inconsistent sort though (huge price by comparison at the moment, and may well have been the choice had he more consistency)). Backed at 6.8 leaves me needing an in running lay off to prices as follows:

Lay off at 4.4 for at least a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.0 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 3.6 for a 1.7 all green profit.

A real weak race is the 3.35 and we know that Peter Bowen can ready one for his chase debut so I've backed Normally at 7.2 and 3.35 to place, he is a previous point winner and this will probably be his forte upped to fences today. Trying this via mobile so hope it gets there.

                                                         10 Jan 12 21.52

Probably not around much tomorrow so an early doors choice goes in the 2.50 at Doncaster tomorrow, anything can happen with the price of course and I do think it will drift, but I think that the lightly raced 8 year old gelding Keep Talking has a chance of getting us a trade tomorrow afternoon. In eleven career races to date Keep Talking has been available to trade in ten of them. I will update the prices tomorrow. His record of shortening up is better when he is ridden from up with the pace as he has done in his latest races and hopefully that will happen again tomorrow with Alex Meriam in the saddle for the eleventh time, he should know how best to ride him you would think!! Over this sort of distance he has more than halved in price all four times and may do so again tomorrow. He is currently available to back on the exchanges at 18.5 which would leave us needing in running lay off prices as follows and all to our normal stakes:

Lay off at 12.5 for a minimum 1 point all green
Lay off at 11.0 for a 1.3 all green minimum profit
Lay off at 9.8 for at least a 1.7 all green.

For a two point all green you will need to lay off at 9.2



13.03

I did say I wouldn't be around much today and that is still the case, the prices have drifted as thought.

The most dangerous way of trading is when you lay the horse first, which is what we are doing here for only the second time since the blog began in November 2010. In the upcoming 3.40 the horse is Ruby Crown, known as a hold up horse this 10 year old mare has drifted in running every time that she has gone on to win. Although a dangerous way of trading it can also be a very fruitful one. I layed Ruby Crown at 3.4 for two points and am looking to back Ruby Crown at 6.8 in running for an all green profit.

In the next at Southwell the 2.25 we have a hot pot of a favorite in the much improved Laffan, a typical Ryan improver last time out over this course and distance on his handicap debut and there may well be more to come from him. The danger to our selection M J Woodward, is that Laffan may just dominate from the front and we may not get a look in. But M J Woodward also won over course and distance last time out and did the same two races before that over 5 furlongs, in between hit bit the dust after a very slow start. Luke Morris is up again today and providing he gets clean away from the stalls then he may just worry the favourite and be in contention long enough to get us a trade. Available to back at 11.5 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 7.4 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 6.8 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 6.0 for a 1.7 all green profit or

for the AMBITIOUS:

Lay off at 5.7 for a 2 pt all green or
Lay off at 2.6 for a 6.5 pt profit (stake 8.8 pts)