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Jinxy's Trading Post Blog

Dont Tell

24 Jan 12 15:37
It wouldn't be the first time that I've gone for two trades in the same race but having looking again long and hard at Dont Tell Sailor then I think he is worth a go as well. The six year old gelding is certainly on the upgrade this season. He was just outdone in the closing stages at Hereford last time after being well up there for a long time and since being sent over the bigger obstacles this former point winner has trade in all four races and can do so again today. Available to back at 8.4 leaves us needing in running lay off trade prices for a double whammy in one race:

Lay off at 5.6 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.0 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 4.5 for a 1.7 all green profit.
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Investing for a trade

24 Jan 12 13:42
I'm looking to Leicester to trade this afternoon, the going is usually different on the hurdle course to the chase course and today is not different with it riding slightly better on the chase course. In the 3.40 race Investment Affair and Dont Tell Sailor are the two I've been looking at and they may both trade but its the veteran Investment Affair that is a big drifter in this encounter and is the one where I'm hoping to get a trade from. This is not a nailed on trade, he is better going left handed than right handed but he has been is such good form that he may well still go strongly enough for long enough to allow us to green up. He has been in great trading form of late being available to trade at less than half his Betfair Starting Price in each of his last seven races. When Jack Doyle has taken the mount his record for trading is 5/5. Jack is one of the reasons that I think we can get a trade from Investment affair this afternoon, he tends to ride the horse a bit more forcefully and has him positioned around third or fourth place from fairly early on. There has been a big drift on this horse this morning and he has been pushed out to 14/1 (15.0) in places. Around the exchanges he has drifted out to 17.5 which leaves us needing in running prices of:

Lay off at 11.5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 10.5 for at least a 1.3 pt all green or
Lay off at 9.2 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.
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Some people have messaged me and asked that I put up the full results so far for the January trades using the Betfair SP as the point to start at, which is fair enough. It eliminates those that trade pre race, (like Oniz Tiptoes today) but at the same time it accommodates the ones that drift. Swings and roundabouts.

Those that traded down to odds on are in bold and some profit/loss stats for those will be added probably tomorrow for those who trade every selection at 2.0 or less.

So far there have been 34 selections of which 6 failed to trade (I'm including one that traded to just 1.3 as a loser for this purpose) The 6 losers cost us 2 points each time - so -12 points.

28 selections traded to a profit of 1.7 giving a total profit of [b]47.6 points[/b]

Leaving a total profit for the month to date of 35.6 points.

Jan 1st TimeOut - Won at 2.19 and traded down to 1.01 so up - + 1.7 pts profit made
2nd Your So Vain - no trade - 2pts
3rd Six of Clubs - traded from 12 to 5.6 - 1.7 pts profit
4th Satwa Laird - traded from 6 down to 1.34 - +1.7 pts
4th Aerodynamic - traded from 5 down to 3 - + 1.3 pts
5th Autumn Spirit - traded from 9.2 to 1.39 - +1.7 pts 
8th Nice One Frankie - won, traded from 5.69 down to 1.01 - +1.7 pts
9th Time for Spring - traded from 7.4 down to 1.5 - +1.7 pts
9th Spirit of Grace - traded from 8.17 down to 4.2 - +1.7pts
10th Extremely So - traded from 15 down to 4.9 - +1.7 pts
10th MJ Woodward - no trade - 2pts
11th NR
12th Greenhead High Won at 6.76 so traded down to 1.01 - +1.7 pts
13th Poppy Go Lightly - traded down to 7.2 from 16 - +1.7 pts
13th Almaada Won at 5.7 so traded down to 1.01 - +1.7 pts
13th Elizabeth Poppy 9.75 and traded down to 4.2 - +1.7 pts
15th Switched Off 27 and traded down to 4 - +1.7 pts
17th Quinder Spring - no trade- -2pts
18th Roc De Guye - traded from 13.5 down to 1.34 - +1.7 pts
18th Kaybeew - traded from 11.5 down to 6.4 in running - + 1.3 pts
18th Spinning Ridge Won at 18.57 thereby traded down to 1.01 +1.7 pts
19th Royal Commission Traded from a BFSP of 9.48 down to 3.05 - +1.7 pts
20th Mark The Book Won at 7.2 so traded all the way down to 1.01 - +1.7 pts
20th Red Current Traded from 11 down to 5.2 in running - +1.7 pts
20th Stanley Bridge Traded from a BFSP of 14.5 down to 6.6 - +1.7 pts
20th Sire De Grugy Traded from 12.19 down to 5.1 in running - +1.7
20th Teenage Idol Traded from 12.39 down to a price of 4 in running - +1.7 pts
20th Pilgrim Dancer Traded from a BFSP of 4.9 down to 1.5 for a +1.7 pts
20th Cathrine de Medici - no trade so - -2pts
21st Johns spirit - Traded from a BFSP of 9.47 down to a low of 1.54 in running - +1.7 pts
21st Masters Club - Traded from a BFSP of 4.31 to 2.34 for a profit of +1.7 pts
22nd Focail Maith - Won at 5.15 so traded down to 1.01 in running for a - +1.7 pt profit
22nd Kykate - traded from a BFSP of 9.8 down to 4.4 for a profit of - +1.7
23rd Oniz Tiptoes TRADED PRE THE RACE but not from its BFSP so its a loss - -2pts
23rd Tooman Lane traded from a BFSP of 12 down to 2.1 for a profit of - +1.7 pts
 
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Down the lane for a trade

23 Jan 12 13:41
In the next at Wetherby I think we may be able to get a trade out of the Patrick Holmes trained Tooman Lane. He was well beaten by Sycho Fred in May last year when useating his rider but his style of running that didn't prevent him from trading down to 4 from a Betfair starting price of 16. He has been very consistent where trading is concerned and has traded in twelve of his last fourteen races and in his last seven when running from a mark of 100 or less (running from 93 today) Back up in trip today should not be a hindrance to him. He is available to back at 9.6 which will leave us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 6.2 for at least 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.7 for at least a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 5.1 for a 1.7 all green profit.
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Nice and quietly

23 Jan 12 10:45
Morning folks, today's racing is not the greatest and is typical Monday winter fayre, still we will attempt to keep our excellent run going by trying for a trade at Wetherby this afternoon. In the 2.15 race we have quite a competitive handicap hurdle with four last time out winners, Mission Complete is a big improver but is up in class and up in the weights but the one horse we know will be staying on in these conditions when others have had enough is the eleven year old Oniz Tiptoes who returned to form over the smaller obstacles with a win at Sedgefield, in nine hurdle races in 2011 he was available to trade in seven of them and has a trading success rate of 86% when taking to the field in Class four races. He gets in here off the minimum weight and has the assistance of Graham Lee to help his cause further. One or two of the younger horses may well finish in front of him but all we need is for Lee to get him into a threatening position in the latter stages of the race and that should be enough for us to see his price drop and get us out with an all green profit. Its early doors at around 10.45 but he is available to back at Ladbrokes and Corals at 8/1 (9.0) and 12.0 mark on the exchanges which seems very fair to me, and leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 7.8 for at least 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 7.0 for at least a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 6.4 for at least a 1.7 all green profit
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Lucky last at MR

22 Jan 12 16:01
In the last at Market Rasen in a few minutes I think we can get a trade out of a lightly raced imprivng horse that in just seven races has a cracking record for trading. Last time out at Sedgefield in a similar race KyKate led from pillar to post when winning a similar race to today's. A penalty will make life tougher this afternoon but similar tactics from Charlie Huxley should see KyKate staying in a prominent position long enough for his price to drop and get us a trade. He is available to back at what I think is a generous price of 12.5 which leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows:

Lay off at 8.2 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 7.4 for at least a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 6.6 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.
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Kempton this afters

22 Jan 12 11:49
In the 2.50 at Kempton this afternoon I'm hoping that we can get a trade from a quite consistent type in the form of the John Ryan trained 4 yr old gelding by the name of Focail Maith. Those who follow the blog on a regular basis will note that this horse has done us proud in the past and he can do so again today. His all weather record of late reads well since he was upped in distance to nine furlongs plus, with him being available to trade in five from six races more than halving in price in running in comparison to his betfair SP each time. Adam Kirby has the ride again today, last time he rode the horse from a prominent position throughout the race and was caught out by Nibani close home. Nibani is again in todays field but his come from way back style of running leads me back to Focail Maith for our trade. Ear.y doors but he is available to back at 7.2 which leaves us needing in running lay off prices of :

Lay off at 4.7 for at least a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.3 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 3.85 for a 1.7 all green profit.
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Some people have messaged me and asked that I put up the full results so far for the January trades using the Betfair SP as the point to start at, which is fair enough. It eliminates those that trade pre race, (like Oniz Tiptoes today) but at the same time it accommodates the ones that drift. Swings and roundabouts.

Those that traded down to odds on are in bold and some profit/loss stats for those will be added probably tomorrow for those who trade every selection at 2.0 or less.

So far there have been 34 selections of which 6 failed to trade (I'm including one that traded to just 1.3 as a loser for this purpose) The 6 losers cost us 2 points each time - so -12 points.

28 selections traded to a profit of 1.7 giving a total profit of [b]47.6 points[/b]

Leaving a total profit for the month to date of 35.6 points.

Jan 1st TimeOut - Won at 2.19 and traded down to 1.01 so up - + 1.7 pts profit made
2nd Your So Vain - no trade - 2pts
3rd Six of Clubs - traded from 12 to 5.6 - 1.7 pts profit
4th Satwa Laird - traded from 6 down to 1.34 - +1.7 pts
4th Aerodynamic - traded from 5 down to 3 - + 1.3 pts
5th Autumn Spirit - traded from 9.2 to 1.39 - +1.7 pts 
8th Nice One Frankie - won, traded from 5.69 down to 1.01 - +1.7 pts
9th Time for Spring - traded from 7.4 down to 1.5 - +1.7 pts
9th Spirit of Grace - traded from 8.17 down to 4.2 - +1.7pts
10th Extremely So - traded from 15 down to 4.9 - +1.7 pts
10th MJ Woodward - no trade - 2pts
11th NR
12th Greenhead High Won at 6.76 so traded down to 1.01 - +1.7 pts
13th Poppy Go Lightly - traded down to 7.2 from 16 - +1.7 pts
13th Almaada Won at 5.7 so traded down to 1.01 - +1.7 pts
13th Elizabeth Poppy 9.75 and traded down to 4.2 - +1.7 pts
15th Switched Off 27 and traded down to 4 - +1.7 pts
17th Quinder Spring - no trade- -2pts
18th Roc De Guye - traded from 13.5 down to 1.34 - +1.7 pts
18th Kaybeew - traded from 11.5 down to 6.4 in running - + 1.3 pts
18th Spinning Ridge Won at 18.57 thereby traded down to 1.01 +1.7 pts
19th Royal Commission Traded from a BFSP of 9.48 down to 3.05 - +1.7 pts
20th Mark The Book Won at 7.2 so traded all the way down to 1.01 - +1.7 pts
20th Red Current Traded from 11 down to 5.2 in running - +1.7 pts
20th Stanley Bridge Traded from a BFSP of 14.5 down to 6.6 - +1.7 pts
20th Sire De Grugy Traded from 12.19 down to 5.1 in running - +1.7
20th Teenage Idol Traded from 12.39 down to a price of 4 in running - +1.7 pts
20th Pilgrim Dancer Traded from a BFSP of 4.9 down to 1.5 for a +1.7 pts
20th Cathrine de Medici - no trade so - -2pts
21st Johns spirit - Traded from a BFSP of 9.47 down to a low of 1.54 in running - +1.7 pts
21st Masters Club - Traded from a BFSP of 4.31 to 2.34 for a profit of +1.7 pts
22nd Focail Maith - Won at 5.15 so traded down to 1.01 in running for a - +1.7 pt profit
22nd Kykate - traded from a BFSP of 9.8 down to 4.4 for a profit of - +1.7
23rd Oniz Tiptoes TRADED PRE THE RACE but not from its BFSP so its a loss - -2pts
23rd Tooman Lane traded from a BFSP of 12 down to 2.1 for a profit of - +1.7 pts
 
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In the last at Lingfield I'm hoping we can find another trade to finish off what has been a cracking weeks trading. I'm going for a trade with a horse who has won twice since being gelded and has been available to trade in three of his four races since the operation and  think that he can do so again in a fairly weak Class 6 race. Back up in trip today will be a great help . John Ryan puts Adam Kirby up again today and similar tactics to last time where he had Masters Club up with the pace should do the trick again this afternoon. Missed the early prices about this one, but still available at 4.5 means that we will need to lay off at in running prices as follows, all to our normal stakes of 2 pts win followed by either 3.05, 3.35 or 3.75 pts lay off:

Lay off at 2.94 for a 1 pt all green
Lay off at 2.68 for a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 2.4 for a 1.7 all green screen. 
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Spirit of Wincanton

21 Jan 12 13:32
Sending from a mobile so fingers crossed it gets there.

In the next at Wincanton the 1.35 I'm hoping that we can get a trade out of a so far consistent type, so far in six career races he has yet to be out of the first three and has been available to trade in all six races and even better is that he has traded down to odds on in all six races. The Jonjo O'neill gelding is normally held up at the rear of the field so we may have to wait until fairly late in the race to get our all green. In his one previous attempt in a handicap (same grade as today) at Bangor he was a little unlucky being beaten just a short head, headed just on the line with the first two pulling 16 lengths clear of the rest. Still on the upgrade, when Richie Mclernon asks for an effort today he should make a good enough effort to enable his price to drop short enough to get us a decent trade. He is available to back at 9.8 which leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows, all to our normal stakes:

Lay off at 6.4 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.8 for at east a 1.3 all green or
Lay off at 5.2 for at least a 1.7 all green profit.
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