Iontic cheval 2.25 Chepstow
Alistair Ralph only runner tomorrow
Stable in fine form,  horse won the race 2 years ago, been off 8 months
Bits and pieces of money for it already, trading about 6s
I've had a dabble and will monitor it tomorrow

Well Chepstow appear to have found some soft in their going description.

I should have said yesterday that I am equally surprised to see Jurancon continuing over two miles. This is surely a three-mile, soft ground chaser. To win tomorrow he will need a combination of jumping better than at Worcester, and some bonkers tactics from O'Brien. Just sitting on the front end unlikely to be good enough.

At the moment as regards the jumps still just about living off the Josh The Boss winnings. Trying to avoid as much as possible. Even if stables are deemed to be in form you could still very easily end up on the wrong one's.

I have backed Disguisedlimit each-way in what looks much the stronger division of the novice hurdle. He made my annual list of pointers to follow. Hobbs got him for 150,000 which is about the limit for the yard. Actual form of his win is not great, but he is from the family of Bobs Worth. Trip is likely on the short side, but ridden prominently there must be a fair chance of finishing in the three. Having said that one of the rags will now step up and he will finish fourth. The stable have made a reasonable start with this type of horse, Sober Glory won a bumper at the track having been a slightly cheaper purchase.

Had it been a two-miler I think Let It Rain at 1/1 would look a decent price. I would be concerned at the market weakness. She was very good in bumpers, winning very well at Ascot (despite a poor ride), but this is very much starting again. Interesting to see how she jumps and where she is positioned. The longer trip may mean going down the dropping her out route again. Skelton doesn't need many excuses to adopt those tactics. The third favourite has been supported, but that is a shocking stable to follow.

Had a look at the bumper which has several 'winners' in it. Jimmy Hurdstrom travelled sweetly before hanging a touch left, and then quickening away. It was probably a poor race. Since purchased privately by Tony Bloom. Kingston Queen won a small field mares' point, but may only have been third, but for two last fence casualties, one of which has won a bumper at a big price since. Jordans Cross won his point nicely, kicking for home some way out, and keeping on strongly. That was on soft ground. Philippa's Choice departed at the last in another mares' point that was a burn up over the last two. She was outpaced before staying on strongly on the run to the last. It's likely she would have been placed. My inclination would be that Jimmy Hurdstrom might be the one, but I think I would rather risk Jordans Cross at 7/1 in the hope he will handle the quicker ground.

The idea that the first winner is a 'good jumper'? Who's he trying to fool? If you backed that you should be filling in the lottery. The ground being softer than thought is good news for the bumper horse who has halved in price. 

Shame this Happy Valley rubbish is cluttering up the schedule again. Does it ever end?

Each-way landed with Disguisedlimit at 17/2. Unfortunately, the horse has run away with the jock, and Chepstow is the last place you want to do that. That pace (and the softish ground) has probably handed the race to Jurancon. The winner was iffy in the jumping department again. Hard to believe they won't up him in trip. Skelton horse had a nice school round. I am assuming the muppet on track will catch up with Skelton after they have all run.

french ship comfortably- market got it right

anyone recognise the Champion Hurdle winning colours on Lucky Lugger?

first prize

A couple of nice novice hurdles at Chepstow today.
Jurancon stepped up from his debut at Worcester behind The Kemble Brewery. The track definitely suited him. He will come again when stepped up in trip.
Connections of the runner up, Tripoli Flyer, will be pleased with that debut.
Let It Rain was given a very confident ride by Skelton. She is held in very high regard but couldn't quite get to the race fit French Ship.
Let It Rain jumped really well and I hope she will fulfill her obvious potential.

Well spotted DD,usual stuff they like him a lot etc,he's got 4 with them and they're all supposed to be fairly useful,re today what you saw was what they said about how she was going to be ridden to the letter but we still thought she'd be good enough so still had a decent bet unfortunately.Still think he's got a very decent horse there and hopefully underbet next time,re next time probably changed a bit as first words were month off before next run.

I would guess so,as always the market will probably be key tomorrow so if he's strong worth a bet,as today they told him the one in the last was ok,drifted like a barge and we know the rest!

El Cairos now the outsider in the bumper after heading towards favouritism last night? It's the sort of market which suggests it's a weak race, and any of them could win.

The other race I was interested in was the mares' novice at Ludlow. It's a very weak race. I was looking to oppose the favourite. She comes from a good family, and did me a favour in bumpers, but she is small, and although I put up Affinisea as a sire to watch a couple of years ago, as yet his progeny don't appear to be the most natural jumpers. She also starts over a longer trip in a poor race. The problem is who to oppose her with. It's a bunch that requires too much guesswork, although I am not surprised that Sain Et Sauf has shortened a little. She showed nothing in points, but there was a modicum of promise in her hurdling debut, and she would have been a few lengths closer had she not bungled the last two.

A no bet day, and looking ahead I can't see too many for the rest of the week.

Hartington for me. It has shortened from 20 this morning, partly due to a non runner. The last 3 in these colours were second, first at 22/1 and 4th of 18 at 50/1.

Went as long as 40 in running but I didn't go back in as it looked well beat. Won easily in the end. Tizzard has them spot on. I have backed the 4 in that same ownership in the last few days and three showed a good profit. They also own War Lord but he seems to have lost his way. JPR One could win at Exeter tomorrow though.

Long way home at Newbury but as you say, the fav should have won from where it was 2 out.

The Pertemps qualifier at Newbury now down to 4 runners so all will qualify for the final. Who wants the win penalty I wonder?

Small fields, but anyone backing shorties today has had an absolute mare. One after another sunk. The one I thought about opposing will no doubt be the one that wins.

'May be having a breather'. Yeah, that's what it was, not that the horse (Mary) was floundering.

Sage , things have changed a bit this year . The winner only of a Pertemps qualifier is the only one guaranteed a place in the final , and it needs to be within the weights at the declaration stage . Yes the first four are eligible .

It has always been the case that you can be ballotted out on rating. Usually 134-140 is the cut off point-hence my point about who wanted the weight rise. So American Sniper on 120 was the obvious one.