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Start Of The Jumps
Start Of The Jumps
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What a front running performance by Al Dancer off top weight. I was on Remastered but I don't think he would have beaten the winner.
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DD
Totally agree about the National Course. The Mildmay course,(do they still call it that?) has stiffer fences. |
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Nicholls' 5 for me much more about the jock than the trainer. Swap the jocks, and he doesn't get near 5 winners. Cobden one of the few who can make a difference.
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Just a quick look at tomorrow's two bumpers.
The mares' race at Ffos Las doesn't look strong. Cobden an eyecatching booking on what looks to be the Honeyball first string. I just missed the 7/2, but not surprised it was taken. She doesn't have a great rating from her point, but she had mastered the favourite who departed at the last, and eventually won a shade comfortably having sat just off the pace. You would think Stylia wants a stiffer test than this. The Sandown race looks a good bit better. The most noticeable thing about the market is the difference in price between Kiwi Rush and Hurricane Pat. Strictly on the point form through High Court Cave there shouldn't be much between the two. Kiwi Rush went forward in his point, and it seems likely he will be on the front end. For the record Hurricane Pat is another who didn't make Mark Howard's book. Maybe that also only arrived five minutes ago. Youdecide won his point very easily, but just four ran, and only two finished. He did travel well under King, but he likely didn't beat much. Henderson fields two, but until he shows he is taking these races more seriously, I couldn't support them. I missed the 14/1, but thought the double figures Youdecide was still worth chancing. The stable will want to bounce back after a couple of setbacks. |
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Tomorrow, I’ve backed Ski Lodge 15/2 each way in the maiden hurdle at Ffos Las and laid Kiwi Rush at 2.98 in the Bumper at Sandown.
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How fortunes change. Two days ago Nicholls was 7th in the trainer list. Now he is second but still a long way behind Skelton who managed a valuable win from 3 runs today. Meanwhile after a successful week Joe Tizzard could only watch Killer Kane finish last and The Changing Man fall. Where is Nicky Henderson in all of this? 22nd. He does have 4 at Sandown tomorrow though.
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Just had a read of Fry's stable tour on Sporting Life. He says he should have run Gidleigh Park in the Supreme rather than the Albert Bartlett. I find that incredible. I don't think he would have had a prayer in the Supreme. I suspect he turned up at the Festival nowhere near 100% - the Cheltenham win likely finished him for the season - and in that state he wouldn't have featured in any novice hurdle. In the end I think it was the right race, but poor preparation. Fry strikes me as a consistent under achiever. In a way he reminds me of Roger Charlton in that he got off to a flying start, and since then hasn't been able to maintain anything like that level. He will produce a couple of promising sorts who don't really deliver on that early promise, and the cycle just repeats. Of course he isn't the only one who comes into that category.
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dd
That’s laughable Fry saying I wish I’d run it in the Supreme! Gidleigh Park was one of my biggest bets at the festival in March…heyho I accept he ran badly. The AB is littered with unexpected results. I’m hoping to see Gidleigh Park in the best UK staying hurdle races this season, assuming he is not going novice chasing. I will shortly read the Sporting Life HF tour. |
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Just read the aforementioned stable tour about Gidleigh Park.
Chasing it is then. Hope he does well. |
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I am one of those who had high hopes of Harry Fry as a trainer but he did get off to a good start with horses sent by Nicholls owners who knew him from Ditcheat. I have since come to the same conclusion as differentdrum that he is not going in a positive direction so I avoid his horses these days.
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Plans change of course as we might see with Rubaud. Paul is still saying that it is chasing next, Harry Cobden says he is a brilliant jumper but then Megan Nicholls says why not keep him over hurdles? Chasing was the plan back in September but he has since won 2 hurdles that are worth far more than any 2 mile novice chase so far run. Megan is not the decision maker but I can't think she said that unless there is a possibility. If Constitution Hill has another delay, apart from State Man, who would you back to beat Rubaud on good ground? Loads of horses are destined for novice chases at this time of year but only a fraction actually run in them as we see daily.
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Given the choice between blaming the race choice, and a poor preparation which one is a trainer going to plump for? The horse looks the part, and clearly showed plenty of promise, but until he shows otherwise, I have parked him in the fragile box. Also, it's about time they got the horse to settle, as surely you can't keep strangling him. Personally, I would like the horse to be allowed to go forward, but that's not how Fry operates. He has certainly bigged up Anno Power so it's surprising that one is so weak, and the Derham runner has been smashed up. Is it a case of point and fire with the favourite, and as per usual, Anno Power farting about at the back? Only so many times you can get away with those tactics.
saxon, I think you should be alright with your each-way, and given the favourite is not straightforward, may cop the lot. Unknown sire. |
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And so many horses that are plotted up decline to cooperate on the day the money is down.
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Fitzy talking garbage again. It wasn't a gamble to go forward on Tutti Quanti, it was just the right thing to do. Had he held the horse up, and made the same mistakes, he would have struggled to win. I think it's called a sensible ride.
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Same on The Kemble Brewery. Why mess about on a class horse in a big field? You could encounter fallers or interference. Some of the lesser horses have been left a very long way behind the first 2 in the first division and The KB in the second. Just shows that owners are willing to take these horses to run for £4k at Ffos Las when they could have won twice as much at Exeter or Wincanton.
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So Amo Power got there but why be that far back?
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The Kemble Brewery, nice engine, but far from a natural jumper. Will need to improve in that department when upped in class - Tolworth?
Village Master looked a nice improver, travelling sweetly, and jumping well. Today he looked the exact opposite. That wasn't the weight. Something amiss since the last run. Pressure on Greatrex this season, and that wasn't a good look. Given the way she jumped, Anno Power did very well to win. Bridle horses don't normally find that much off it. Form not that strong, but a good start. Another hold-up loser for Derham. Be surprised if the one in the last doesn't go forward. Henderson needs to buck his ideas up. Does he realise the season has started? This is supposed to be his ground. Ski Lodge travelled and jumped well, but no engine at the death. You would think fences sooner rather than later. Favourite never going to win. |
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His horse has not yet appeared at the start! Has he remembered to send it? Disgraceful disregard for punters.
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Start the race without him for goodness sake! No other sport would stand for this nonsense.
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It would have done favourite backers a favour if they had gone without him
 Yet again a novice chase is a farce. |
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More worries for Marine Nationale. Quilixios jumped very well and thumped him, despite conceding 4lbs. I doubt either will be winning a Champion Chase, but not sure why Marine Nationale is 16/1 and Quilixios 50/1.
As for the bumpers I got the markets pretty much right for both, but the results are a bit more important. Another bumper winner for Moore. No history of winning these races, but as long as you get them fit, these days that's no guide. Youdecide 14/1-11/4 never looked likely to pick up, and was very laboured up the straight. The Derham runner was a big drifter, and a big disappointment. The two Henderson horses were awful. He's just playing with these races, and it seems the sport in general at the moment. I think you knew your fate with Easy Love from an early stage. Honeyball bumper winners are not usually ridden out the back. Cobden got into a mess in the straight before very quickly waving a white flag. She looked better than she ran. The support for other one was a surprise. |
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Got the impression from the home turn from the jockey's action that Marine Nationale wasn't gonna be given a hard ride to win if it was needed.
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Ben Pauling with three shorties at Carlisle today. Suspect a few will do the treble. I would be surprised if it's landed. Currently, 1/15 with four beaten favourites.
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I've been flagging up his horses finding nothing off the bridle. These could still win without the jockey having to get serious. Very short though.
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The first fav ends up on the deck
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Wait for the conspiracy thread
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Didn't take long. Bookmakers in clover already. One beat is good for them, two would be a bonus.
Winner's jumping improved, and should be up to winning again. |
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The fav here is being asked a challenge to win from the back
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No Questions Asked won but again you'd have to say the horse got slower when put under pressure and found little.
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Not a very clever ride, but thankfully, for Jones, the opposition weren't very good. You shouldn't be giving horses more than 20 lengths start - for no obvious reason - in a slowly run race. Interesting to see what the tactics are in bumper. For those who have punted it, I fear he might try something similar. Having touched odds on it's not so strong now.
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Jones confirms it 'all Ben's are taking a run this season'. Same as Nicholls and several others. They should start next season at the end of November.
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Can we count the legs on Unexpected Party, drifting like a barge on here
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The rag comes and does the lot of them, hope KDB is ok nasty looking fall
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And another fav falls. Going odds on put me off having a bet!
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With the novices chasers, you wonder how much schooling has been done on the grass. Pumpkin did say a couple of weeks ago they've only just got on it, must be the same for a lot of them
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Cobden let's the vast majority bunny hop their obstacles. Horses can take off too early like this one when allowed to.
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Was a great run off top weight by NS
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Califet En Vol looks the part. At this stage you can't really say much more. I was rather hoping he would have had Minella Premier out for a race like that.
Won't say this too often, but I felt a bit sorry for Harry Skelton. He put Cobden under pressure, and the other one has taken advantage of his efforts. |
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A shocker by Ben Jones again there. Far too far back and allowed other jockeys to delay his challenge. Jonjo no better so Skelton cleans up yet again.
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Yes, I had a feeling that was coming earlier in the day. Three shorties, one winner, and that despite the ride. Pauling should take some of the blame, that's four runs failing to get the horse to settle. A stiff track not ideal in those circumstances.
Ended up feeling sorry for Skelton twice today. Surely never to be repeated. I miss that Sacre Coeur type ride. It hardly happens at all these days. As I have said before the vast majority of races don't start until two out. |