Start Of The Jumps

Kikijo outpaced in the straight as I thought he would be. I put El Granjero in the last day of the tipping comp but of course it was second! Boultbee Brooks continues to get placed horses and the odd winner. Thanks for the heads up Reg.

The two runs this season for Golden Ace is suggesting a non stayer, in spite of the horse's wins last season. Very confusing. Jockey today looked like he didn't think the horse would get home and rode accordingly.

If differentdrum has thrown the towel in on this thread, then it’s a real shame.

As a headmaster, I would comment differentdrum is a diligent student who is totally committed to his work.
His knowledge of the chosen specialised subject is top class.
Nevertheless, he finds it difficult to accept criticism and his insensitivity to alternative views requires latitude.

DD was probably getting fed up with the aftertiming that was going on. Relentless!

So I have now started a new thread where proper debate including aftertiming is welcome. Those who object to anything apart from free tips please avoid it.

Is there a reason you need a new thread Sageform?

I started it because the original one seemed to have been taken down. If you read the posts on mine you will see that I offered to return to this one but others have asked that it stays. I really do not mind either way. I was quite happy with this one but when we get posts like the one from Whipping, I can see why many are not.

Have you guys looked at Sandown on Saturday yet ? Doddiethegreat should have perfect conditions (even more than at Kempton) and is 3lb lower than Betfair 4th. This is weaker field with veteran hurdlers and although he’s not the youngest he looks just about at bet at 100/30. Staying will be the game.

Jan 2, 2025 -- 7:35PM, sageform wrote:

I started it because the original one seemed to have been taken down. If you read the posts on mine you will see that I offered to return to this one but others have asked that it stays. I really do not mind either way. I was quite happy with this one but when we get posts like the one from Whipping, I can see why many are not.

Cheers

Hibore, I will wait to see which meetings survive the frost before spending much time studying. Nicky could run the stable cat and win on recent evidence.
One horse that puzzled me yesterday. Twig ran blinders in the Cheltenham and Aintree staying handicap chases. Now he has been returned to hurdles and run relatively poorly 3 times. I wonder what they are aiming it at?

Jan 1, 2025 -- 8:19PM, MJK wrote:

The two runs this season for Golden Ace is suggesting a non stayer, in spite of the horse's wins last season. Very confusing. Jockey today looked like he didn't think the horse would get home and rode accordingly.

Golden Ace reverting back to 2M. The horse doesn't stay any further anymore apparently.

sounds like the BETFAIR then speculative  go at champion if she runs well enough

Massive jump from mares only. I know that Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead have managed it but there are no more than 5 mares each year that can cut it against geldings over hurdles or fences. If it was mine, she would be in the mares hurdle but good luck with whatever they do.

I think they might run Betfair and swerve Cheltenham and go to Aintree. Better ground and sharper track with fresh horse. Can’t see her placing in any race at Cheltenham.

Cons Hill seems bit easy in the market today ?

even the moaning OAP,s wont get out of bed now for a 100 grand race,just 9 in the veterans final ,been 20 runners in the past

Seems like 1/5 to be cancelled.

They’ll race at Sandown, I’d have thought.

I’m about mile away and not over cold here. Last night was far worse with cars frozen by now.

Think it will be ok.

Spillane's Tower not entered for the Gold Cup. The assumption then is the Ryanair, or are they waiting for Aintree?

Just 5 GB Gold Cup entries and I doubt whether we will see more than 2 of them run. GDC looks a winner bar injury now.
Meanwhile Taunton might be in doubt from the local BBC weather just now. Could be minus 3 and even snow there tomorrow morning. After that we can only hope for Kelso on Sunday or Exeter on Monday. Cheltenham on New Years Day a fading memory for jump fans.

Lulamba only around 6s for the Triumph and hasn't had a run yet for Henderson. Down to go at Kempton on Saturday. So do they cut it again if it wins?

If it goes ahead of course...

Hacks up,they probably will.

Salvator Mundi back on the track Sunday

Lets hope Ballygunner Castle can avoid the other horses !

Looking like Ballyburn will run in the 2M5F Novice at the DRF. Not entered in the Arkle there. They should have listened to DD at the start!

The Towton was a bit of a non event in that only 2 finished but I suspect that I learned quite a bit. Firstly Handstands is an improving top class novice chaser and secondly that Lord of Thunder paid another compliment to Lowry's Bar.

I learned THE SKELTONS GOT THE LOT, around 5 to 2 /9 to 4 strong 2nd fav 24 hrs ago any price you like and sent to where you rarely see a Skelton WANTED  out in front and went out back of tv like a light in 6 strides

Repeat what I said earlier in the thread after it's last run, Tullyhill needs stepping up in trip.

Asian needs a jockey putting on top,that was embarrassing,made brod Munroe Wilson look like John francome

A Dream To Share given a poor ride last time and should have finished closer. Disappointing if that can't be put right today.

Non runner. Boooo.

Jan 8, 2025 -- 9:19AM, MJK wrote:

Salvator Mundi back on the track Sunday

Gotta be described as workmanlike

Sin on nother site that e as ad wind operation

Townend said he wanted to hold him up for education and that stopped him jumping fluently. He did well to win from where he was 2 out but he did not look like a speed horse to me going forward to the spring and likely quicker ground.

In general I've never seen so many Mullins' novices make so many mistakes in races as they have this season so far.

Yes and they also always used to send the good ones straight to front and front run them. They seem to now put them in behind as tactic alot more

maybe because they gallop and jump at home on heavy ground that hasn't been seen much this season

Hobbs again! 5 out of 10 in 2025. I didn't back that one against a potential Henderson hotpot but it stayed on well. Livin on Luco the only other one today.

Betting seems to suggest they've decided on the Champion Hurdle for Brighterdaysahead

Dylan Johnston can surely expect a ban for failing to ride out for 3rd at Hereford

Jurancon won another competitive novice. He doesn't do much in the early stages which is in his favour as he saves energy for later.

Couple today that I have backed and have shortened a bit. Double Digits 11.55 Newcastle from a good owners and had decent ptp form. Libre de Choueur now joint fav for Ludlow 1.15 for Boultbee Brooks.

One poor and one non runner yesterday so here goes again.
MR 2.35. I have backed both of the Tizzard runners in the Veterans chase as I did before it was abandoned last time. Just prefer Eldorado Allen to have more pace round a tight track.
Windsor 1.15. Myretown has bottom weight in a decent handicap but well backed and looks like an improver.

Lulamba, books cut him alright,6/4.

After a few days of dire quality, today through Sunday looks a bit more interesting.
Lucky Lugger Huntingdon 1.20 is still a maiden but has been placed a few times for the Sheppard family. He fell 2 out in the fog at Chepstow but was apparently still in contention. Small each way I think. Pearl Island is another chase mount for Stan Sheppard, this one trained by Henry Daly. 7/1 for a winner last time with only 3lb more looks worth an e/w again.
At Wetherby. 12.55 Chart Topper won his only hurdle easily and is 10lb clear on RPR. Any odds against would be worth taking. 1.30 No Risk Des Flos is my choice and he has shortened a full point since 6.30 this morning.
Good luck all.

Morning Sage
Gonna take on 2 of yours with a couple of my own picks
1.30 Wetherby Eaton Collina, Richard Patrick for Kerry Lee
(He also rides 2 outsiders for Clive Boultbee Brooks at the course)
3.05 Hunt Express Surprise, being sent chasing, Ned Fox for CBB

Gl all

Boultbee Brooks trains Express Surprise who is now clear favourite to beat Pearl Island in the 3.05 so I will be saving on that.

Sorry Reg, misread yours a bit. The other CBB ones at Wetherby need massive improvement but good luck.

Well done Reg. I followed the market and split my stake with Pearl Island. That will do for today.

Cheers sage
Nice round of jumping for first time over the bigger obstacles

Well done Reg.
Fantastic after timing as always, Sage.

You didn't read my 11.28 post of course but I don't bear grudges. I also put up the Mullins winner at Wetherby and greened out Palladium on the other thread so the only winner I had all day that I did not post was in Ireland and modesty forbids me to mention that one. And we wonder why so few people post on this thread.

Sageform - had another watch of Chart Topper and Patrick (as I was impressed ) but I didnt realise how much he ' wings out ' his left fore leg . It doesnt seem to affect him as jumped very straight and has now won both ways round .I have never seen it to such a degree .

Amazing what different gaits horses have but can still win races. He looked in trouble 3 out at Wetherby but Patrick was biding his time.

A good card at Cheltenham but not one that I find easy to find any value. I am taking a chance that Ginny's Destiny has recovered his form from last year in the 1.50 but 3/1 is still a bit skinny in a very competitive handicap. Grey Dawning has not really advertised the form from last years Turners but Djelo has and I think those 3 are better than handicappers. L'homme Presse deserves to be favourite but not odds on. Same goes for East India Dock and Potters Charm. At Doncaster I will stay loyal to Western Knight in the River Don. The Changing Man keeps getting beaten but keeps starting favourite. He is an e/w price today. GL all.

Attraction amazed me that she was able to win a classic with her gait.

Just watch a group of humans contesting an Olympic 5000 metre final and you will see a wide variety of stride length, body position and gait.

Just looking again at the Cotswold Chase and realised that L'Homme Presse is getting weight from the main opposition which does put him clear on ratings. However Venetia is not in great form recently despite 4 minor wins in the last 2 weeks. Chantry House is the dark one which keeps me from having a bet.

Agreed but for Ht/wt ratio reasons its far more important for equines than humans or canines .

While the 4yo trial at Cheltenham might contain the Triumph winner, the Mares Listed one at Doncaster 12.20 has to be the weakest listed race ever! Why have them on the same day? Highest handicap rating is 109 which would not have got into the Fred Winter never mind a Triumph in the past but there are now so few decent horses contesting 4yo hurdles. My only tiny bet in the 4yo races is Torrent for a place in the Cheltenham 1.15. He usually starts at 33/1 or bigger at this level but as yet has never failed to reach a place.

east India dock is 1 to 2,easy game if bookmakers give you odds against, chamberlain and itv stop the world and give you a chance to get off if a sat fav drifts from 10 to 11 to evens 

I agree that on form East India dock is clear but this is a 4yo hurdle in which none of the next 4 in the betting have run against him before and 2 of them are having their first run in GB. Too many unknowns.

I agree that on form East India dock is clear but this is a 4yo hurdle in which none of the next 4 in the betting have run against him before and 2 of them are having their first run in GB. Too many unknowns.

7 placings from Torrent in a row. He did shorten up a bit before the start for a place but was available at 7.6. Barely believable. None of the ones behind stay 2 miles.

One Irish runner in the 2.5 handicap. Wins of course. Nicholls are still in serious trouble. Two fences out both still in the first 3. A furlong later both tailed off. Classic virus symptoms. Apart from Sean Bowen they all went too fast.

15 to 2 put up by value + last night,think tony Calvin had put it up at 11,s on Thurs

Well done Nigel TD and Jim Old for picking up £13k for third in the International with Spirits Bay. By far the biggest pot that the horse has won.

The Changing Man second yet again. Just seems to lack a gear late on .

changing man doesn't jump well enough to win one of these with a tight handicap mark,a clean round and he could win of this mark IMO,but to many scruffy leaps all add up, THE RITZ next I imagine and will run well again

Could be but I think he is better on a flat track. Agree he is not a good jumper.

Could be but I think he is better on a flat track. Agree he is not a good jumper.

roll on the flat

yup,great one for torrens, took 50/1 tenner ew w
hillbillies...nice boom
n went for a forcast on highst but the fecker come
3rd, hey ho, but nice profit overall

sorry
torrent

Well done with that. Almost as good as place only return and you did have the outside chance of a win. Place only Torrent turned out to be my only winning bet all day With sincere apologies to those opposed to after timing.

onwards
n
upwards
as always

Hoping to see the real A Dream To Share today. Jockey got into all sorts of pockets last time and ran it into a few hurdles.

3 o clock
ireland...
not my cup of
t

Ps if Naas is getting the same rain we're getting in Dublin atm very best of luck to anyone going today

Dreadful weather in Somerset this morning as well. Yellow wind warnings and torrential rain since 9am and there was rain in the night as well judging by the flooded fields. And no sign of stopping yet. Wincanton is likely to be heavy on Thursday and Chepstow on Tuesday could be in doubt.

Jan 25, 2025 -- 3:11PM, sageform wrote:

Well done Nigel TD and Jim Old for picking up £13k for third in the International with Spirits Bay. By far the biggest pot that the horse has won.

Didn't sit well with me when NTD's 'good thing' got stuffed in the last and him saying the horse will be much fitter in March.

He will need to be a stone better to trouble yesterdays winner and I wonder if he gets 2.5 miles on soft. 90% of yesterdays runners will "come on for the race" if you ask their trainer. The other 10% had yesterday as their main target. It is not a tactful thing to say to punters though.

Jan 26, 2025 -- 9:51AM, MJK wrote:

Hoping to see the real A Dream To Share today. Jockey got into all sorts of pockets last time and ran it into a few hurdles.

The single reason there why I only bet on a Mark Walsh ridden horse if I can't see it being beaten. Horse made ground behind the front three turning in, he sits in behind then and let's the horse amble over the hurdles. Horse made mistakes again.

Jan 26, 2025 -- 12:16PM, MJK wrote:

Jan 25, 2025 --  3:11PM, sageform wrote:Well done Nigel TD and Jim Old for picking up £13k for third in the International with Spirits Bay. By far the biggest pot that the horse has won.Didn't sit well with me when NTD's 'good thing' got stuffed in the last and him saying the horse will be much fitter in March.

agree vile stuff mjk...4/5 nap price return 8/15

isn't their usual mo either

No chance that it was beaten by a better horse?

Jan 11, 2025 -- 2:31PM, MJK wrote:

Repeat what I said earlier in the thread after it's last run, Tullyhill needs stepping up in trip.

Maybe Willie will do it next time...

Lulamba taken out of the Supreme. The Triumph it is so.

Jan 27, 2025 -- 6:40AM, sageform wrote:

No chance that it was beaten by a better horse?

surprise surprise big improvement in form & there's a positive test for a banned substance

found a stone from nowhere 4th run following trainer downgrade

Gaelic Warrior for the Ryanair confirmed?

The last decent card before Cheltenham at Sandown. The EBF final is always competitive as is the Imperial Cup. Spirits Bay is well backed.

Nov 26, 2024 -- 6:36PM, MJK wrote:

Interesting hearing that Marine Nationale may have a new jockey nto. Sean Flanagan schooled the horse at the weekend. In spite of the defeat last time this horse still has loads to give imop.

Four months waiting for this race

ditto MJK.

Dec 27, 2024 -- 7:50PM, MJK wrote:

DD re Blackmore I'll be very surprised if Bob Olinger is beaten tomorrow.

Got the money back today

Well done.

Left me puzzled. Had it down as a definite non stayer, and it appeared they went a reasonable gallop. A good ride as well on a horse who often looks awkward under pressure. Perhaps she gained confidence from the earlier rides.

Think it's more to do with the ground imop. The heavier ground at the likes of Navan and Leopardstown definitely blunts the one burst he has. Think the second today would've won on softer going. No doubt Joseph O'Brien might feel he'd have been bang there on form with Bob but for being brought down.

Jan 11, 2025 -- 2:31PM, MJK wrote:

Repeat what I said earlier in the thread after it's last run, Tullyhill needs stepping up in trip.

And they continue with 2M it seems....