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Start Of The Jumps
Start Of The Jumps
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In Excelsis Deo, backed this for the Powers Gold Cup @ Cheltenham,Saturday (Wn & E/W).
Can see him running well if the jumping holds up.Has run well & not so after a break so hope it's the former if he makes the gig. GL ALL |
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I did like the pedigree of What U Wanna Do Is (a shocking name) in the closing bumper at Hereford. It's very much the pedigree of a bumper winner. However, despite it looking a very ordinary race, and the trainer being flavour of the month, it isn't strong in the market. Has that got something to do with two attempts to sell the horse since it was purchased in 2021, including July this year? Not a good sign which makes me feel it's more likely to bomb than win.
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GA Law for me, Penzance. He needs good going to show his best, goes well at Cheltenham, his 2 runs with good in the the description at Chelters (11) nice tee up for this with a decent run at Chepstow LTO and he's available at a double figure price.
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Champagne corks will be popping at Hereford. Benny Poste, the man with the lowest strike rate, actually rides a winner. Quite a quick turnaround, only 82 losers in a row this time.
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It's going to be a bit harder to sell What U Wanna Do Is now. Sparely made, and no engine. Pedigree meant nothing.
If I was Ben Jones I think I might be a little annoyed/worried that Pauling is still putting up Kielan Woods. You are not really the stable jockey if you are not riding all the horses. I think this link has got to work for Jones, and it's probably been more miss than hit so far. Hobbs has just fed him scraps and preferred Nolan, the Lavelle link dried up, and Curtis is now using Bowen more often. If this fails, not sure where he goes. |
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Just 2 declared for the novice handicap chase at Taunton on Thursday. How long before we have one with no horses declared at all?
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Decent card at Bangor tomorrow. Trainers seeing the word soft in the going....
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Yes but still only 3 in the novice hcap chase at Ayr on good and 4 at Market Rasen on Thursday also good. Even some novice hurdles are attracting 5 or less. On the same cards there are double figure fields in handicaps with older horses apparently able to act on good ground. Even Bangor only has 6 in a listed novice chase and two of those are from Ireland. They are just not in training or not ready to run.
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Interesting to see if the Skelton's have got Shan Blue tuned up for his 1st start. this season (1.25 Ban). Could make mincemeat of these if they let him just bowl along...
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Not sure how anyone could back a horse that hasn't won for 4 years.
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Fair point, and I haven't...
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Hurlerontheditch had never won over obstacles before but it was backed and ran like an odds on shot. Stable form.
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No comparison. Hurlerontheditch won by a head, and as flagged at the time, probably should have won his previous race with a better ride from Hughes.
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Shan Blue ran like he always does
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I think you could probably count on one hand the number of horses in the last 10 years who have gone four years between wins. That's if there are any at all.
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I just thought it was an interesting horse to be cropping up on a mundane Wednesday, that was all...
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Just one bet today, Fireball Frenzy each-way in the second at Market Rasen. She was quite well touted before her rules debut, and raced prominently before cutting out. Stable has yet to hit form, but assuming there was no physical issue, I think she is worth chancing on a quicker surface which might be in her favour. I would have her second favourite. The favourite has been well supported, and has reasonable bumper form, but her best runs came on a much softer surface.
What we don't want is one of the eight being taken out. These days there are few enough three place races as it is. Looking ahead to tomorrow, Cheltenham doesn't look a great punting card. I thought Slipway was of some interest at double figures in the Cross Country. He's inconsistent, but if he takes to it he could be competitive. Couldn't make up my mind if Valgrand would be too slick for Potters Charm. One jumps, and one stays, but which wins out? |
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differentdrum shot himself in the foot when he posted..."I think you could probably count on one hand the number of horses in the last 10 years who have gone four years between wins. That's if there are any at all".
Since 13/11/2014 there have been 367 occasions where a horse has gone four years between wins. Illustrated below are a few of 'em going back to early 2019. [ This image is no longer available. ] |
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Nice research top2!
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Thanks for that, but you probably could have made your point without cluttering the thread up with a list that doesn't really help anyone. You could easily argue that getting Shan Blue right was a bit more helpful, but of course that would mean praising someone. When was the last time that happened? Would a hundred lines suffice?
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Well done t2r
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Lots of horses will never win a race and you just have to accept that as part of the game. But I would be very disappointed if I owned a 140+ horse that did not win a race for 4 years.
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DD Jonjo's winners seem to be all fit and up with the pace. What's seldom is wonderful.
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Patrick says no decision has been made yet regarding Ballyburn....
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To me there's no decision to be made with Ballyburn. It should be obvious, but for some reason nothing seems obvious to Willie. I wish he would concentrate on what's best for the individual horse, and not constantly appear to be deciding where it fits in with something else.
Each-way comfortably landed with Fireball Frenzy 12/1-6/1, but a smaller model, and not in the same league as the winner. Winner should be better on slower ground, but needs to improve in the jumping department. As I said on the other thread hard to believe the ride that Bowen gave the favourite in the first race. If that's acceptable then you are creating a licence to cheat. Imagine Townend going out and doing that on one of Willie's. It just doesn't happen. |
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Have they had rain on watered ground at Cheltenham? I see they have got soft into the description, and soft ground lover, Potters Charm, is now very strong. Thinking the ground might be significantly softer than originally expected.
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You wonder with all the negativity surrounding the quicker ground at some tracks if they've purposely over watered the ground.
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Bit of a collectors item on Saturday, Paul Townend riding for Joseph O'Brien at Navan (Banbridge).
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Surely Ballyburn just goes over fences with the aim of winning the Gold Cup in 2026. Can't see any point in running over hurdles, which would be the Stayers if anything
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Wouldn't surprise if he won. Stiff track should suit, and at the moment the ground is in his favour. Any rain due?
Navan probably a more informative card than Cheltenham. Took a chance on Hartur D'Arc in the big handicap. Still can't erase the memory of how impressive he was when he ran away with his point. Didn't build on the early bumper promise, but he's still only 7. Job jockey booked. |
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Wonder why Burke's not on In Exelsis Deo, last 8 runs he has been.
Thought he'd be on that,tbh.Good opportunity for Carver if he can get him into a nice rhythm. |
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Bit of support for Slipway thanks to Pricewise. He's either very competitive, or bombs. He cut out very quickly in the Bet365. Let's hope he doesn't do that today. Trip shouldn't be an issue.
Presumably, the ground had dried a bit, and Potters Charm and Valgrand are now a lot closer. I favour Valgrand because of the jumping, but no bet. |
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I missed the double figure prices and had to settle for 9.6 Slipway. I have a very soft spot for the colours which is not a rational reason to back a horse but he has done me favours at good prices before. As you say he either gets into a rhythm and wins or runs poorly. 3mile 3f round Fontwell is a good test for this and he won there. I am getting over my usual prejudice against Jonjo who is doing well lately so Springwell Bay is the nap. Jonbon should win but I will lay it to lose £1 just to have an interest in the race.
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Will keep an eye on Tumuch at Punchestown. He was a very impressive point winner, but was very disappointing in a bumper, and his price today (over too short a trip) suggests he might be a 335,000 dud.
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Tumuch ran on heavy going in March when Elliott was not in great form so could be excuses. Sporting price bet e/w.
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Will Yhe Wise my main bet of the day. Youse have me worried now with Tumuch!
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MJK - nice spot with Townend riding for JO'B tomorrow, has done once so far this season and that was on Duke Silver winning at Wexford. Banbridge looks to be up against it on these terms though.
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Since I posted Tumuch has gone from a drifting 12/1-6/1 so a different look now. Still think the trip is likely to short, and after last time they will ride him to finish off.
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Love Jane Mangan's excuses for every beaten Irish horse. Granted they do usually win! Buddy One looked totally outclassed to me.
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Not worth 335k but evens a place only was OK.
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