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Poor ride from Jones in the opener at Huntingdon. Given his mount was consistently losing ground jumping needed to show much more urgency to try and get upsides two out. Had he done so it would have been close. He was never going to make up 4-5 lengths in such a short space of time.
Sky Lord, nicely bred, and looked above average. Well ridden, but probably just better than the favourite. |
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Only By Night did win on the bridle. Just to repeat what I said after the first win, let's hope she can see out her season this time. On that evidence she wouldn't be out of place in an Arkle. Better that than stepping up in trip. As per usual, bookmakers no imagination, and only quoting her for the Mares'. She is so obviously speed over stamina.
Djelo made a couple of supposed Grade 1 horses look like plodders. He isn't a Grade 1 so the others very disappointing. I don't like to see jocks falling off, but given his pathetic performance last time, it would have been a disgrace had Banbridge prevailed for bookmakers favourite, Joseph O'Brien. |
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Where do you think that puts Energumene compared to Jonbon? It is hard to come back to where he was and Dinoblue had to concede weight but I would make it Evens each of 2 between them.
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If it was at Sandown, you would be all over Jonbon, but he seems to have more problems with the fences at Cheltenham. At the prices I wouldn't be rushing to back either. Gaelic Warrior not exactly what you would call a safe bet. I was hoping Ferny Hollow might have shown a little more - he would have been fourth or fifth - but it's probably odds on he won't make it. I would imagine that Banbridge will turn up, but which version?
Supreme Malinas, surprise surprise, ridden completely differently, won a shade comfortably, despite Skelton coming close to departing. St Irene, picked up the pieces, aided by a wayward Kapability and Cobden. Another outside ride, another duffer. |
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I don't think that St Irene was helped by the heavy rain which increased the stamina required. She was also ridden from the rear which didn't help. The winner ran on really well. I did lay off so no harm done and she will win a normal bumper if given the chance.
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Any reason for not backing it each-way? It was available at 25/1 last night, and even at 18/1 you could have made a tidy profit?
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Very little to get excited about today ahead of a very good midweek card at Punchestown tomorrow. Smokeringinthedark was the horse who, had he not jumped so badly, would have beaten Orderoftheday (creditable effort in a bumper a few days ago) in his point. Diva Luna the main interest at Lingfield. Mumbles has probably got the most pronounced soft ground action you could see, but hasn't always delivered on that surface - 2/6 on heavy.
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so how do you get excited about bumpers at gaff tracks which are now basically legalized schooling sessions ?
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After Venetia's only runner yesterday, Djelo, cruised in the Peterborough Chase, she's got one runner again today... 2.30 Lingfield... Haute Folin... Won first time out a year ago, then pulled up 3 times in the spring... First time maybe the time to catch him... Got 5s on here earlier, trading about a point shorter now
In the same race, Kim has Imperial Hurricane which has been off 20 months... Was some 12s plus on here earlier, been backed into 8s now Should leave the race alone but can't help getting involved GL all |
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I agree that aspect has got worse with supposed top trainers taking them less seriously, than they once did. Henderson the very obvious example. That said plenty of the sport is guesswork with lots of horses being sent out for a run round. The sport just isn't policed properly, but that's what punters have to put up with on a daily basis. The sport doesn't want punters to win, at least not on a consistent basis. Personally, I much prefer races where bookmakers have less to go on. You have to put the work in, but it's still just about possible to win. Some people get excited about veterans' races. I have never understood that. Why would you want to bet on races where you could easily get a different result if the race was run the following day? Some pundits get very excited about difficult handicaps. Great when you solve one, but let's forget about all the times you don't. It boils down to personal choice, and doing what you are best at.
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FYI
In a stable interview the trainer says that Diva Luna is the best novice mare in the country! A bold statement, if true it should win this in 2nd gear. |
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Trainer doesn't talk his horses down so I would take with a large amount of salt.
Just caught the backend of Hayley Moore talking to Patrick Mullins. I am assuming she didn't even bother to ask about Ferny Hollow? |
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Bumper winner quite impressive in what was probably a pretty weak race. I rarely back flat breds in any jump race, but he had by far the best pedigree in that race. Lots of black type winners.
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Ben Pauling, dear oh dear. It didn't look as if Woods didn't make anywhere near enough use of a relatively easy lead. Don't suppose the useless Moore asked why the stable jock wasn't riding?
Mumbles managed to fool punters again with a woeful effort. Quite a promising debut from Smokeringinthedark who attracted a little bit of support. Fortunately, jumped a little better as the race progressed. That said looked as if the jock on the favourite arrived about a furlong too soon. |
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Pauling was over the moon with the run, happy as Larry.
It's not clear who is the stable jockey as Woods seems to ride as many as Jones. |
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Sad news about Ferny Hollow. If he 'passed away from his injuries shortly afterwards' why has it taken 24 hours to announce? Unfortunately, I will have to remember him as my worst ever cash out. I backed him for the Bumper on the strength of his impressive point win, but cashed out a 25/1 ticket after he looked very wayward in his initial bumpers.
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Two early each-way bets for Punchestown. Dancing City has three Grade 1 wins, but at no stage did I think I can't wait to see him over a fence. At 7, I am a little surprised, given how uncompetitive the Stayers division is, that they didn't at least try him down that route. If it goes pear-shaped perhaps they will. I backed Shannon Royale at double figures yesterday on the basis that if he reproduces his chasing debut, he should at least be in the mix for a place. That looked a step up on his hurdles form. Probably worth keeping an eye on Buachaillbocht to see if the step up in trip, and slower ground makes a significant difference. The Great Nudie ran away with a late season point. Although she probably didn't beat much, it was perhaps surprising that she wasn't sold on. It's a family that has had more misses than hits, but it does trace back to The Dikler. I had her down as a good ground horse, but she was disappointing in two bumpers on a quicker surface. Upped in trip for her hurdling debut, and on much softer ground, I thought she did well to see off the Mullins favourite, the pair clear. Her jumping was sharp, and it was to her disadvantage that flights were omitted. Double figures looks reasonable.
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dd going back to St Irene, I only bet on the exchange so it is always a separate bet for a place and the odds from memory were not that good for a place. Liquidity place only is not as good as the win so it is much harder to trade out. With hindsight place was the bet but I still think the win bet looked value the day before. Yesterday was as dire as it gets and I am getting rather worried about the kind of racing being served up. I very rarely look at Ireland these days but I do watch French flat racing.
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Both of mine quite weak. Perhaps the market thinks they want softer ground? Not so sure with The Great Nudie. That improvement could easily have come from the step up in trip, and a professional jock.
Only race I was interested in other here was whether Hollygrove Cha Cha would remain unbeaten. Katira Du Mestivel has been strong, weak, and now strong again in the market. Not sure the point form is much good. She was headed and beaten when coming down at the last in her point. The winner, Easy Love, was a disappointing favourite in her bumper, looking pretty slow. The leader also ran out at the second last in that point. I would be disappointed if the favourite didn't win again. |
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I was quite impressed with Dancing City, enough to take the double figure price for the Brown Advisory. His jumping was the best of the four. That said, had it have been softer, Shannon Royale might have got even closer. Not sure what Gary O'Brien was watching, but he closed all the way to the line. Another solid effort, and one each-way landed. Olympic Man travelled very strongly.
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Agree with Dancing City, looked pretty good and Townsed was confident enough to go on with him. Will take some beating no idea what Mullins will run against him at this point. Good starting point
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The Great Nudie doubled in price. For a fair amount of that race she appeared to travel as well as anything, but was eventually outpaced from two out. So perhaps up in trip, or softer ground. She's only small, but she can win again.
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Decent performance from Jingko Blue beating those on debut and giving weight away. Surely have a look at a graded race after that. Scilly Isles maybe
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Dancing City is entered in the Long Distance Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, 8/1 available.
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Hollygrove Cha Cha made life much more difficult for herself by jumping so badly. That would be exposed upped in class. 4/4 But remains very much a work in progress.
Another bridle job for Cromwell in the last at Punchestown. Glenashling had earlier looked a big, slow boat. A long way removed from Special Tiara. |
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Dancing City now no better than 8/1 for the Brown Advisory. Mullins will have any number he can run in a particular novice chase prior to then.
Very little to excite tomorrow. Can the not so big I've Madeupmymind make up for her latest bumper debacle? Not so sure, although she gets a stone from the second favourite. Doctor On Call probably the most reliable option in the bumper as you never know what Skelton will be up to. Looks as if it's the Courage colours on Cuillin Ridge. |
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Now the Turner's is no more, isn't the 5/1 about Ballyburn for the Brown Advisory a little too tempting, isn't it a case of deciding what price is big enough to take in the hope that further races over the minimum trip begin to highlight/suggest that it is now time to step him up in trip ?
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Ballyburn was never a Champion Hurdler. That was always a lot of wasted breath, generated by a combination of media and the trainer making his usual wishy washy statements. Anyone but Mullins and he wouldn't be an Arkle horse either. He doesn't need to be running over two miles again. The Turners would probably have been his race so it then comes down to how much they actually need to run at Cheltenham. If he were mine I would miss it, and go for the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse instead. The trainer has others for the Brown Advisory including today's winner. You could come out and say that now, but chances are Mullins will not declare his thinking until a few weeks before the Festival so the same ridiculous scenario will play out as it does every year.
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What makes you think that Ballyburn wont turn up in the Arkle?
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I am not saying he won't, with Mullins anything is possible. He has usually gone down the shuffling the pack route, rather than choosing the best race for the individual horse. He chose the right race for Ballyburn last season, but was still whinging about not winning the Supreme. He should have been more than satisfied that his best novice had produced one the best displays of the meeting. I think you train Ballyburn as future Gold Cup horse, and trying to get away with it over two miles would be a mistake. As others have now pointed out last year's novices don't look that good. That's probably why he got away with it over hurdles. It doesn't mean the same will happen over fences.
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Obviously if Mullins decides to run Ballyburn over two miles then it wont be a mistake, he is the maestro.
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Time will tell. I tend to believe anyone can make a mistake, and that includes Mullins. I assume you have backed him for the Arkle? Unlike last year, I haven't backed him for either race. Too dangerous, might not be good enough, might not turn up.
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No, I wouldnt dream of backing any Mullins horse anti post, best to wait until they are actually declared close to the race day, although I do think that the Arkle is the way they will go.
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I've Madeupmymind duly fails to land the odds again, looking a horrible ride in the process. Frailties exploited by a keep it simple ride on the straightforward winner.
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another day of fav fav fav
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relentless
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The bumper at Hereford, Imo that's the only time the Nicholls horse beats Skelton's horse. Harry ran up the arse of about 5 other horses and give it the same ride as the winner and wins easy enough for me
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Doctor On Call wins the bumper so both calls pretty much spot on. Plenty of green horses (including the winner) in that bumper so on the day probably not much of a race.
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Just the one bet tomorrow, Telepathique, each-way at double figures in the mares' listed. She jumps well, goes well at Warwick, and the step back up in trip shouldn't be an issue. Hopefully, there isn't a non runner. I think the market is overrating You Wear It Well whose best form appears to be over two miles on soft. Sutherland, the interesting one in the bumper, but hard to back given the way Henderson is seemingly playing with these races, and that's before the hood is considered.
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