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Start Of The Jumps

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Replies: 1,312
By:
differentdrum
When: 06 Dec 24 16:16
So in your opinion Plantaroma reproduced the Chepstow run? Mr Escobar isn't very good, he had lost his last ten. He came over here for a reason. Winner probably improved for the ground, but he doesn't jump well and at the moment is no great shakes. The two horses that Plantaroma finished second to on good ground, Royal Infantry and Anno Power are much better than today's winner. The favourite has run way below, and it was predictable that might happen. As I said it was a get away with it mission. For me you don't do that with your better horses. You simply wait for optimum conditions.

Sober Glory trotted up in the bumper, despite the ride. Had there been anything useful in the race he might have been in trouble.
By:
mfw
When: 06 Dec 24 17:54
Plantaroma went to Sedgefield for a reason as unlikely to win a novice in the South.
The ground today was good to soft so perfect conditions for Plantaroma
Don't think the trainer is an idiot, just bumped in to one that may be improving.
By:
Twoboyz
When: 06 Dec 24 18:46
differentdrum

I don't think that's so obvious this year, certainly not so far.

Denemethy. Anyone got a clue what O'Brien has been doing since he got this horse? He made all, jumping well, to win his point, beating Lowry's Bar. Since then he has run him over the wrong trip, and held him up at the back. It looks clueless stuff.

Talking of clueless trainers. Plataroma and Cadell, two long trips for nothing.

I was impressed with Handstands, enough to back him for the Brown Advisory. He travelled and jumped very well, and stayed on strongly. Only negative at this stage would be his form being mainly right handed.


Did it not win impressivey held up over 2m at Wincanton ?
By:
Twoboyz
When: 06 Dec 24 18:50
I think it will win soon. A strongly run race on heavy ground over 2m or over 2m 4f. Looks like it has to go right handed. Jumped well today but blew up
By:
differentdrum
When: 06 Dec 24 19:44
Denemethy,

Yes, he won an ordinary race at Wincanton, I think despite the ride, not because of it. He was far more impressive in that point beating a better horse, and ridden in a completely different manner. That's the best piece of form he has got so why is he even messing about over two miles? Obviously, given the chance I think he should be doing a good deal better. 

mfw,

I couldn't disagree more, but don't really want to get bogged down on one horse. The Chepstow form would mean she could win an ordinary novice hurdle in the south on good ground, mares, or in open company. Everything about her form suggests she is best on good ground. The Racing Post results gives the ground as soft which is supported by the time.
By:
penzance
When: 06 Dec 24 23:18
Nemean Lion carrying top weight but can see him running well in this.
Do think there's another good race in this horse & did win 1ST time out
last season,@ Fos Las.He is giving quite a bit of weight away to the field
but past Wnrs have shouldered big weights in this.£26K top wack so hopefully
he should be fairly fit.
Jonbon should've come on for the Cheltenham win,Tingle Creek his to lose,to
me & looking for a good performance,that's if the meeting gets the go ahead.
   GL ALL
By:
differentdrum
When: 06 Dec 24 23:20
Little run through of Navan as it seems the most likely card to survive.

It's guesswork with Mullins' french imports, some hit the jackpot, but some don't. You wouldn't have thought this one would have to be that good to take the opener. Magic Boum's point form looks modest enough, and I would prefer Eastern Legend for the forecast. Well beaten last time, but that looked a much better race than this. Of the pointers in the second race, I would prefer Goraibhmaithagat. Unfortunately, too short to back as trainer and jock are hefty negatives. Echoing Silence cost a fortune, but the form looks pretty weak. Autoportrait, another expensive purchase, but again the form doesn't look great. Very questionable why you would send a decent one to Morris. I didn't think the exposed bumper horses were that good last year so I wouldn't be rushing to take short odds on Jasmin De Vaux. I would be more inclined to look at Workahead each-way. Off the track for quite a while, but the form of his easy point win has worked out well. Ballyburn's full sister, Meetmeinstlouis, makes her debut, but again it's Morris so quite unlikely she will be involved. I have backed Will The Wise each-way in the hope that he ran into a good one last time, and the step up in trip will be a big plus. The Yellow Clay has been good, but not sure he is unbeatable. I did look at Gaoth Chuil in the staying handicap, but perhaps the concession to a few less exposed rivals might be too much. The handicap chase looks too difficult. Arctic Bresil has been a consistent disappointment, but one day he might just pop up. The out of form Torrens takes the ride. I will probably back something in the novice chance, but haven't quite made up my mind. Likely it won't be No Flies On Him, but it will interesting to see if jock tries any harder than he did first time over fences. He Can't Dance priced up as a penalty kick in the bumper. Will he run this time?
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 24 06:38
Not a single name that I recognise at Navan so if GB is all off I will have a break even day.
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 24 06:43
Correction. My old friend Lucid Dreams is out again so I will risk a place only.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 09:18
Wetherby on, but it's a poor card. Most interest for me is Big Zouk. Trainer had a 1/1 pointer run well at Haydock, but that was over three miles. That said this is a poor race, and he wouldn't have to be that good to be competitive. Desert Orchid colours make an appearance in the closing bumper.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 09:37
As I suggested earlier in the week, I don't think Sandown affords many betting opportinities, if any. You would think Honky Tonk Highway should be good enough if she reproduces her Warwick run. Drops in trip, but given the conditions that shouldn't be an issue. The french import the unknown, but that one is pretty weak at the moment. Skelton also has the obvious one in the novice chase. In what looks like it will be a strongly run race, L'Eau Du Sud should be capable of picking up the pieces. Short priced double for Skelton, or a couple of bookmaker specials? Not that enticing. Jonbon seems to be at his best at Sandown, and testing ground hasn't been any issue in the past. He should win, but again another short one.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 09:45
Update on Navan. Eastern Legend halved in price, each-way prices on Workahead gone, and Will The Wise very weak. Given I have backed it, not sure why that would be, but you never know with Cromwell.
By:
in hell
When: 07 Dec 24 10:13
Reagrds yesterday I couldn't have go Handstands more wrong, the only thing I did get right about him that he would be better bowling along at the front end. Quite impressed with him and something around Ascot would be a good fit for him.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 07 Dec 24 10:25
I thought the Winter novice hurdle yesterday was dominated by the two horses who would have appreciated the soft going.
However, Proform have the hurdles course as good to soft yesterday.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 10:31
Presumably, you mean the Reynoldstown? Yes, that would seem likely, and then the Brown Advisory. Although he has been winning right handed it appeared to me he was jumping straight.

Added Backtonormal in the Navan novice chase. It was that or Waterford Whispers, and the selection is the bigger price, and has the benefit of a run. Another upped in trip. Ile Atlantique was clumsy enough over hurdles, and the second favourite returns after a long absence with an ordinary amateur on board.
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 24 10:53
Backed JPR One at 20 yesterday which seemed generous and already laid off at 14. A 6/1 free bet just in case Jonbon is not in his usual form. Can't see anything else being competitive in the Tingle. Hartington and Knickerbockerglory my other Sandown bets.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 11:16
Big Zouk the first reverse for punters. Absolutely smashed up, but looked laboured throughout. Also jumped slightly right. Far less promise than the one that ran in a much better race at Haydock. Will have to hope the horse wants better ground, but had won his point on testing ground.
By:
1st time poster
When: 07 Dec 24 11:19
beauty of earlier starts your best bets are in the bin before the 2nd race at hackney dogs hard even been run back in the day Devil
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 11:35
Added Goraibhmaithaghat each-way 4 places now that it has doubled in price. Soon know it's fate when you see where it lines up.
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 24 11:37
Mullins favourite on the floor early and a sad end for one of the also rans with a broken hind legSad Emotional Roller my only play at Wetherby. Sue Smith finally showing a bit of form.
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 24 11:45
Emotional Roller worth a try over further but that was a weak race.
By:
MJK
When: 07 Dec 24 11:48
Doubt Bolger would've been too happy with O'Sullivans ride there. Race was his for the taking after the fav went and he got in behind other horses on a stayer and looked as though he didn't know where to go down the straight.
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 24 12:05
Well done dd. That won fairly easily in the end.
By:
penzance
When: 07 Dec 24 12:06
OP
Nice Wnr there.
   wd
    GL
By:
MJK
When: 07 Dec 24 12:07
Fantastic DD. Great stuff was cheering you on there.
By:
xmoneyx
When: 07 Dec 24 12:10
nice win drum Cool
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 12:13
Thanks, I needed a winner. Travelled very well, and I thought he had the race won turning in. He knew what he was doing in his point, and same again today. Won both with something in hand.

Agree about O'Sullivan in the first. Only asked for maximum when he had no chance of winning. Horse is only small, and didn't jump very well. The winner has far more scope to go on.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 12:27
Very hard work for Honky Tonk Highway. Not fluent, gets in too deep.
By:
cobs101
When: 07 Dec 24 12:40
Great pick dd, well done
By:
in hell
When: 07 Dec 24 12:45
Jasmin De Vaux has got an engine but wouldn't be for me over hurdles watching that.
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 24 13:02
Jasmin looked beaten until going to the last but then it won fairly easily. Needs to be slicker over hurdles but certainly has an engine. Very hard to judge the quality of novice hurdlers until they run again in a smaller field.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 13:03
Too much Hislop. We didn't need both Skelton interviews which meant virtually no preview of the Navan race.

Jasmin De Vaux not impressive, particularly for a long odds on shot. It looked as if Workahead came to win his race, and got tired on the run to the last. Meetmeinstlouis showed up well enough to suggest she will find a race.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 16:40
The Yellow Clay fell over the line, and confirmed he is useful, but certainly no worldbeater. I was quite happy with Will The Wise in running, but he has stopped to nothing once the race really started. The market seemed to know. I cashed out my Backtonormal bet after this race, and it subsequently, bombed as well. Cromwell stable in and out at the best of times, but on this evidence they are not right. La Malmason probably got away with it because she barely had to come off the bridle to win. Gaoth Chuil rewarded each-way backers, but as I suggested found a few too good. It looks as if she needs a bit of help from the handicapper. Arctic Bresil jumped terrible, and was never put in the race. Early days, but Ile Atlantique looked a better chaser than hurdler. He looked as if three miles might suit him even better. The favourite got the job done in the bumper. The second and third both finished their races off, and it will be interesting to see if they frank the form.

The three shorties got the job done at Sandown. Jonbon looks a different horse at Sandown. Quilixios deserved his second, but was outclassed. Don't think Gordon Elliott will be too disappointed with the Henry VIII as I suspect Firefox would be considered to be a good bit better than Touch Ne Not. That horse was beaten less than four lengths after one horrendous mistake. More of a concern for Elliott might be the jockey situation.

It's very irritating listening to Stanley and Nevison at the best of times, but do we really need these jumping figures? If your eyes can't tell you whether a horse is jumping well/badly then it's time to think about giving up. Let's have some stats on trainers who have their horses held up in slowly run races, send out horses half-baked etc. That wouldn't do though would it, as you might be criticising humans instead of horses?
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 24 18:41
Horses don't have lawyers dd. Jonbon seems to still be improving but the opposition outside of Ireland is rather weak.
By:
1st time poster
When: 07 Dec 24 19:35
Mullins just got 6 of the 1st 7 in the betting in the hillyway tomorrow
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Dec 24 19:38
Does anyone know who trains Leaky Cauldron? Won a point for Colin Bowe at the start of last season (five out of the next six home have subsequently run well), but didn't go through the sales ring. Bookmakers have quoted across the board for the Festival Bumper although that would seem unlikely as he is nearly 6, and yet to run under rules.
By:
sageform
When: 08 Dec 24 08:31
Things must be getting bad when I bother to look at the Huntingdon bumper but with the gale still blowing outside here goes. It is a listed mares bumper with no penalties for the winners in the race. The 4 principles would appear to be: Kapability RPR 116 TS90, High Haven RPR 116 TS61, Supreme Malinas RPR 110 and St Irene RPR 113 TS 102. The first 2 are unbeaten in one run while St Irene won her first but was then sixth in a very hot Cheltenham mares bumper just behind a Mullins winner from Ireland. She was in second place a furlong out that day and weakened up the hill. I took 18 about St Irene yesterday as she seems almost as good as the other 2 but a very different price.
By:
differentdrum
When: 08 Dec 24 11:05
No bet today.

I left the bumper on the basis it wasn't easy to rule too many out. I know Cobden won on the favourite, but he is also very capable of messing up on outside rides, including for Honeyball. Supreme Malinas got a terrible ride last time. St Irene was 25/1 last night, and now 10/1. Ground an unknown.

Only really interested in Only By Night at Cork. She beat the boys first start over fences, and should be favourite. Instead she is third favourite which indicates the current lack of confidence in the Cromwell stable. She is a bridle horse so maybe, similarly to La Malmason, she might be able to get away with it.

Will the rarely seen Ferny Hollow turn over Energumene, and will Banbridge turn in another woeful performance?

I did ask Bet365 for a price on Goraibhmaithagat for the Albert Bartlett, but the reply came back saying they couldn't offer one. Not the first time, but bonkers/embarrassing. How difficult would it be just to say 40 or 50/1? They know my bets are relatively small, what are they worried about? In all honesty he might well be better at shorter, even though his attitude of just doing enough, might suit the longer race.
By:
differentdrum
When: 08 Dec 24 11:18
Why has Woods got the ride on Diva Luna tomorrow? Must be laughing, already got the rides on the Megson horses. In contrast, Jones must be fuming. How can you be half a stable jock? Pauling should have made a clean break.
By:
paulo47
When: 08 Dec 24 12:07
Backed Theyseekhimthere last night at 20s , not for homage to the Kinks but because I thought it might be a few pounds better than its first novice win in Nov 23 after another wind op . Of course as a mug punter , didnt notice today was a chase .....But still , at least the world agreed .
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