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Start Of The Jumps
Start Of The Jumps
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yeh but if you don't back,pumpkins,hendo horse any way ,you,d land on some ofr these winners anyway, no coincidence some are now on cold list as pumpkin/hendo etc have more winners ,their on cold list but horses probably running just as well maybe even better
but fair play to Reggie he,s on a good run |
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On the flat but C Mason, red hot, 5 winners from last 10 runners
14/1, 9/1, 33/1, 7/4, 6/1 |
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I too liked the Murphy horse and morrison horse in that bumper. Have backed morrisons atv7-2. The Derham horse is making the market now
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Best of the three fancied ones but well beaten. I thought that One Knight was retired years ago
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surprised Lavelle hasn't made the hot list,or does she make the list now a 9,s at weekend and 25,s shot go in
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Hit every fence in the Sun Alliance and still won
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Dam extremely good for the bookmakers this season. Pat Murphy had an impressive big priced winner as well. If I remember correctly I backed another of the offspring in a Southwell bumper a few years ago, and although well backed it never looked likely at any stage. Berkenshtaaap either ground, or just not much good.
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Jordans Cross just about got away with it in a weak race. Inishnabro ran well enough on ground too soft, and has the scope to jump a fence. Skelton horse useless. All those old formlines were dubious beforehand, and don't look worth repeating now. Bit like Anyharminasking and Constitution Hill.
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Very disappointing from Disguisedlimit. No excuses on the pulling front, and he had an easy lead. Had he finished off the favourite might well have been in trouble, but he's just fallen into a hole again. The ground shouldn't have been a problem so presumably, there is something that is stopping him finishing his races which they haven't dealt with. If they can't do that, it's going to look like an expensive 150,000.
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It made Daytime Dreaming look pretty useful, Hobbs horse did thrash the rest though I don't think they are much cop.
I'd be interested in Moor End going forward, thought it ran a good race and gave up the outside to no one and travelled well. |
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From the home turn the winner only had to stand up to win. Tramuntano 14/1-4/1 - bonkers stuff.
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Can't read the article, but if the horse Holder is referring to is Willy De Houelle, I would rather be a bookmaker kicking it out than a punter who has waded in for the Triumph. Does the latter include himself, and he's now trying convince everyone that he hasn't done his money?
Also Muscat has seemingly made a few quid by writing a piece telling everyone the Coral Gold Cup was rubbish. A few people could have worked that out at no cost to anyone. Why wait until after the race? |
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Can't read much of Muscat's article,
There was broad agreement about two aspects in the preamble to the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury on Saturday. The first was the race no longer boasts the prestige of its forerunner the Hennessy, and the second was this year’s renewal had the makings of a deeply competitive contest. That synopsis was right on both counts. In terms of quality, it was disappointing that top weight of 12st was carried by Sam Brown, a 154-rated 12-year-old would who have been running from out of the handicap when the Hennessy was in its pomp 40 years ago. Basically says the race was rubbish, we all knew that beforehand. |
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Bookmakers might have blundered by going 16-1 about Willie Mullins' exciting French import for Cheltenham
Mark Holder with the takeouts from an intriguing last seven days of action Lossiemouth’s victory at Fairyhouse on Sunday proved her wellbeing – but little else. Given the very slow pace set by Beacon Edge, this was little more than a sprint from the third-last – the winner ran nearly 70 lengths quicker from that point to the line on the second circuit than she had on the first. Still, Lossiemouth has already proved herself a top-class hurdler and, unlike many of her potential Champion Hurdle rivals, she doesn’t have anything to prove, which justifies her position at a best-priced 2-1 for Cheltenham. After Sir Gino’s win in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on Saturday, Mick Fitzgerald said on Sky Sports the question everyone wanted to ask his jockey was: “How does he compare to Constitution Hill?” We never got to hear the answer, but, for what it’s worth, I thought it was an impressive performance and a step up on what he had achieved as an unbeaten juvenile last season. Making all types of calculations with times and lengths, I’ve concluded that this form is right up there with that shown by State Man (in the same ownership) and if the big race were run tomorrow, I’d marginally prefer Sir Gino of the pair. Two big unknowns remain – when will Constitution Hill return and will he retain his awesome ability? Until we can answer those questions, the Champion Hurdle is probably a race to get excited about rather than bet on. East India Dock now heads the Triumph Hurdle betting after the previous occupant of that position, Willy De Houelle, was turned over at odds of 1-4 at Fairyhouse on Sunday, leading to his being pushed out to a best price of 16-1. While there is no doubt he was disappointing, I would tend to be a bit more forgiving than the market. If Willy De Houelle had been held up on Sunday, in a similar place to that of the winner Naturally Nimble, I think the result would have been very different. He still would have jumped a little left-handed (as he did at Auteuil in April) but he may have cruised up to the leaders at the second-last, led approaching the final flight and run on to win by a couple of lengths. And instead of regarding his run as disappointing no doubt we would have been hearing how he had justified the high regard in which he is held. Naturally Nimble (right) challenges Willy De Houelle over the last in the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle Willy De Houelle is challenged by Naturally Nimble (right) over the last at Fairyhouse Credit: Patrick McCann I’m not saying he merited his price of 5-1 for Cheltenham before Fairyhouse, but he’s now about the same price for the race as Naturally Nimble and, if they raced in a match tomorrow, Willy De Houelle should be long odds-on to gain his revenge. Dan Skelton won both novice events at Newbury on Saturday with Listentoyourheart and The New Lion but, while neither diminished their reputations, I didn’t think they particularly enhanced them either. In fairness, neither race was run at a decent pace so it was difficult for them to look impressive, and both are likely to win more races. But I suspect it won’t be in the highest grade and, for the moment, I’ve added The New Lion to my growing list of horses who look too short for the Turners at Cheltenham – he’s 16-1. Speaking of which, while Regent’s Stroll made a pleasing jumps debut to win the maiden hurdle at Newbury on Friday, the cutting of his odds for the Turners was an overreaction. He started at 4-11 for this race so how was he meant to win? His jumping was generally good and he picked up well after making a mistake at the second-last, but this form is about three grades below what would be required to be competitive at the festival. He may end up being good enough, but 20-1 for Cheltenham doesn’t make any appeal at this stage. There was a lot to like about Kalif Du Berlais’s performance later the same afternoon. His jumping was pinpoint accurate throughout, and he quickened smartly when strongly challenged at the last. He probably won with a bit more to spare than the winning margin of three-quarters of a length suggests and there is a reasonable chance he will be a value price next time as the first three were covered by just over two lengths. Given he is only four and is bred to stay further than this two-mile trip, I continue to believe he could have a very bright future. Karniquet made a winning Irish debut for Willie Mullins at Tramore last Monday after finishing runner-up in his two runs in France. Only four hurdles were jumped due to the low sun and he made short work of winning a slowly run race by 11 lengths. I learned nothing, but presumably somebody did as he’s now as short as 14-1 for the Supreme. Meggit still a head-scratcher Three weeks ago, I wrote about Mister Meggit after he had made an eyecatching debut over hurdles at Aintree. The collateral form didn’t look great, but the time comparisons were very favourable, so I was a little confused. For me, form study is an ever-changing puzzle and after watching Friday's disappointing run at Doncaster by Malicash, who had finished fifth behind Mister Meggit at Aintree, I was even more dubious about the quality of the race. On Saturday, however, Kepler’s Law, who had placed third at Aintree, didn’t run too badly behind Skyjack Hijack at Newcastle. The upshot of it all is that I’m still confused about the race. Handicap debate shows you need to know the horses closely Many interesting words have been written about handicaps and handicapping recently. In my bygone days on Twitter, I had a debate (if you can call it that) with a successful racehorse owner who was complaining that the official handicapper was too harsh on “all” horses. My overriding thought was how can someone be so evidently bright and successful in their own line of business yet so stupid when it came to racing. It is worth remembering that handicap races are a zero-sum game. In other words, whatever advantage is gained by one horse must, by definition, be a disadvantage to another. So, if the handicapper appears to have been overly hard in the case of one particular animal, this is to the benefit of every horse they race against. And the reverse is true if the handicapper is too lenient. Therefore, the official handicapper has to perform a balancing act, and it is by no means an easy task. Nassalam: jumps the last in isolation Nassalam: has not had his ideal conditions since his convincing victory in the Welsh National Credit: Edward Whitaker In a thought-provoking column last week, Lewis Porteous cited Nassalam, trained by Gary and Josh Moore, as a horse who was harshly treated having been raised 16lb for winning the Welsh Grand National by 34 lengths. He has struggled in his races since, but in the handicapper's defence I would say he is seemingly at his best when racing on heavy ground over staying trips and the handicapper had given him a rating based on those conditions. The fact he has raced under less than ideal circumstances since is hardly the fault of the assessor. And that is the point. Horses don’t turn up and run the same race every single time – they are suited by different situations, whether that be ground, trip, going right-handed or left-handed, tight courses, galloping courses, small fields, large fields, etc. We will never have an official handicap system that can compute all the multitude of preferences that go into how a horse performs and allot a rating for a single day based on the prevailing conditions. Which is why studying form and understanding a horse’s biases can be a fulfilling and, occasionally, rewarding exercise. |
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How many higher rated staying chasers are there in UK? The Irish chose not to come over en masse so that is the best we have. Broadway Boy is 15lb behind Protektorat on some old form but does Protektorat stay 3.2 miles? Chianti Classico is about 12lb below Gold Cup Class at the moment. Until Saturday, Paul Nicholls was relying on Bravemansgame who seems to have regressed but perhaps he has found a replacement in Kandoo Kid. Royal Pagaille appears to be the best 3 miler in GB at the moment but his best form is on soft. Thats all folks.
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Regarding the Muscat article, the handicapper does have a tricky job but like RP Ratings, they seldom seem to go back and look at earlier form when assessing a horse. Nor do they take much account of track bias or going or even distance. If a horse has consistently shown 10lb better form over 2 miles than over 3 miles, surely that should be taken into account depending what trip it is entered in?
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That daytime dreaming point is looking like a nice race now
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That daytime dreaming point is looking like a nice race now
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That daytime dreaming point is looking like a nice race now
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Thanks for posting saxon. I guessed right. He hasn't owned up to backing the horse, but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he had. If you are going to produce a regular column like that the first thing you should do is come clean with any bets you have had. To try and justify that 16/1 is too big by comparing it with Naturally Nimble is for me a pretty feeble argument. Obviously, Naturally Nimble is too short at that price.
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Mister Meggit is one of the most promising Novice Hurdlers in training IMVHO. Finished down the field in the form race I mentioned the other day. Take a good look at that Aintree NH Flat race.
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Pos. (Draw)
Horse / SP Trainer / Jockey Age WGT OR TS RPR MR 1 Runner Jacket 5. Horaces Pearl (FR) 14/1 Connor Brace Fergal O'Brien 6 114 – 106 124 – In rear, still plenty to do when switched right over 3f out, good headway up the centre 2f out, ridden and edged left 1f out, led inside final 110yds, stayed on (tchd 16/1) 2 1 Runner Jacket 14. Tripoli Flyer (IRE) 13/2 Paddy Brennan Fergal O'Brien 5 114 – 104 123 – Midfield on inner, headway over 4f out, led narrowly or disputed lead over 3f out, led clearly over 1f out, headed inside final 110yds, kept on (tchd 6/1 and tchd 7/1) 3 1¼ [2¼] Runner Jacket 3. Good And Clever (IRE) 14/1 James Bowen Warren Greatrex 5 114 – 103 122 – Pressed leader, disputed lead over 3f out, lost ground and switched right over 1f out, edged left and lost second inside final furlong, soon no extra (op 12/1) 4 1½ [3¾] Runner Jacket 15. Valgrand (FR) 15/2 Harry Skelton Dan Skelton 5 114 – 101 120 – Towards rear, headway and in touch with leaders over 2f out, edged right over 1f out, no extra final 110yds (op 9/1) 5 nk [4] Runner Jacket 18. Sorceleur (FR) 14/1 Harry Cobden Paul Nicholls 4 1010 – 93 112 – In touch with leaders, lost position over 4f out, headway over 2f out, edged left over 1f out, no extra final 110yds (tchd 18/1) 6 2 [6] Runner Jacket 11. No Questions Asked (IRE) 20/1 Ben Jones Ben Pauling 6 114 – 99 118 – Took keen hold, towards rear on outer, headway and in touch with leaders over 2f out, weakened final 110yds (op 14/1) 7 2¼ [8¼] Runner Jacket 4. Got A Dream (IRE) 40/1 Sean Houlihan Nicky Martin 5 114 – 96 116 – Raced wide, towards rear on outer, headway and in touch with leaders halfway, edged left over 2f out, weakened over 1f out (op 33/1) 8 4¼ [12½] Runner Jacket 8. Malicash (IRE) 125/1 Craig Nichol Ewan Whillans 5 114 – 91 111 – Midfield on outer, edged left and weakened 2f out (op 100/1) 9 nk [12¾] Runner Jacket 6. I'm A Lumberjack 22/1 Tom Cannon Alan King 5 114 – 91 112 – Held up in rear, steady headway when bit short of room over 4f out, weakened over 2f out (tchd 20/1) 10 3 [15¾] Runner Jacket 2. Electric Mason (IRE) 14/1 Rex Dingle Chris Gordon 5 114 – 87 108 – In touch with leaders, weakened 2f out (op 18/1) 11 8½ [24¼] Runner Jacket 16. Wellington Arch 100/1 Richie McLernon Jonjo O'Neill 5 114 – 77 100 – Led but pestered, headed over 3f out, weakened over 2f out (op 80/1 tchd 125/1) 12 10 [34¼] Runner Jacket 17. Small Town Hero (IRE) 100/1 Jack Tudor Christian Williams 4 1010 – 57 82 – Always behind (op 80/1) 13 8 [42¼] Runner Jacket 12. Step Out (IRE) 66/1 J J Slevin S R B Crawford 5 114 t – 55 85 – Towards rear, hampered over 4f out, soon weakened (op 33/1) 14 ½ [42¾] Runner Jacket 10. Mister Meggit (IRE) 15/8F Jonjo O'Neill Jr Jonjo O'Neill 6 114 – 55 104 – Midfield, stumbled and bumped over 4f out, soon lost position, headway and switched right over 2f out, weakened over 1f out (vet said gelding bled from nose) 15 2 [44¾] Runner Jacket 13. Tom Doniphon (FR) 40/1 Micheal Nolan Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 5 114 – 52 79 – Took keen hold, never better than midfield (tchd 50/1) 16 16 [60¾] Runner Jacket 1. Castle Ivers (IRE) 8/1 Sean Bowen Olly Murphy 5 114 – 32 63 – Took keen hold, in touch with leaders, bit short of room over 4f out, weakened over 2f out, eased when no chance over 1f out (jockey said gelding stopped quickly) (tchd 9/1) 17 37 [97¾] Runner Jacket 7. Leech (FR) 100/1 Conor Ring Evan Williams 5 114 – – 26 – Raced wide, midfield, dropped to rear halfway, tailed off (op 66/1) 18 8 [105¾] Runner Jacket 9. Ma Shantou (IRE) 7/1 Tom Bellamy Emma Lavelle 5 114 – – 18 – In touch with leaders on inner, weakened over 3f out, eased when no chance over 2f out (jockey said gelding stopped quickly) |
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Just alerting forumites to in-form, imo, trainers with runners today...
Venetia... 3 at Ludlow, 1 at Haydock-Park including Cloudy Glen, fav in the 245, the veterans chase, can he bounce back to his old form? Kim Bailey... 3 at Ludlow, 1 at Haydock-Park James Owen... 2 at Ludlow, 2 at Lingfield, 1 at Haydock-Park Apologies for not putting all the horses names up, but easy enough to look up Gl all |
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Few each-way bets today. Maybe too many?
I like White Rhino, but not sure that Haydock and testing ground is close to his optimum. The lame Uttoxeter run is still fresh in the mind. I thought President Scottie each-way with three places was a safer proposition although he probably wants an even stiffer test. Both Star Of Diamonds and Jo Coko have point wins on testing ground, and the form has been franked by the seconds. I preferred Star Of Diamonds. Hopefully, he doesn't find the track too sharp. Big Zouk might be a better prospect for the Ewart yard in these type of races. Not sure what to make of Ski Lodge. He is immediately upped in trip on second start, and has been supported 6/1-5/2. A big chasing sort, he jumped very well on hurdling debut, but faded very tamely. Was he another that King sent out half baked, or is he just disappointing? Had two in the Ludlow bumper. Jackie Hobbs has been well talked up by the trainer. She beat Holloway Queen on her point debut, but the second, who looked a stayer when winning the other day, would have gone close, but for a mistake at the last. I initially wanted to couple Service Minimum and Pollyanna's Dream. Both are drifting. Easier to understand the latter as Mulholland is struggling for a winner. Service Minimum ran well on debut despite one of Skelton's out the back jobs. Sharp Glance has been supported, but the dam's record with King is dismal. The previous four mares produced to Passing Glance are 1/34. For the second bet I added the home bred, Another Pearl, at a big price. Her two runs haven't been without promise, particularly her debut behind some reasonable horses. Her dam was very useful, and it took her three races to win. Her pedigree Blue Bresil/Black Sam Bellamy/Rakaposhi King would suggest softer ground should be a plus, and Sheehan can sometimes get a little bit extra out of the not so obvious. |
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Money back job with President Scottie, but I thought he disappointing. Bar one in the straight jumped well enough, but just looked very slow. Market agreed with me about White Rhino, but no problems. Too many seconds over the last few days.
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wd Reg. They keep winning.
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Star Of Diamonds very well supported, and for much of the race looked likely to win. Unfortunately, several jumping errors (Cobden lazy in the saddle on each occasion) ended his chance, and to add insult to injury Cobden then lost third on the line. What looked an interesting jockey booking turned out to be anything but. Not great that the other three horses I mentioned have produced two winners and a second. Wouldn't be the surprise on that basis if the Mulholland horse landed the bumper.
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'Typically aggressive ride from Harry Skelton'. You've got to laugh. Presumably, Peter Naughton taking a little nap each time the said jock drops one out the back of the screen. Just carry on just praising the one's that win. Should keep you in the job for life. Another blowout for Cobden (not the first this season for Honeyball), again seemingly intent on taking several of the flights with him. Watching today you would have absolutely no idea that this rider is supposed to be one of the best at presenting a horse at an obstacle.
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Unfortunately, several jumping errors (Cobden lazy in the saddle on each occasion) ended his chance
DD I've noticed lately Cobden offers no assistance sometimes and just sits on the horse and does nothing coming to the obstacles, he ended up on the floor Monday on one of Emma Lavelle's doing the same. |
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approaches fences/hurdles like a dressage rider bolt upright in the saddle and its 99% all in the horses control of what happens next,can look good on a horse out in front with pounds in hand but never going to gain distance riding one from behind by attacking the jumps, imo
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No surprise, a frustrating end to a frustrating day. They couldn't give away Service Minimum, and she never really looked like winning. The favourite has just about got the job done without looking anything special. Another Pearl ran much better than an 80/1 shot, but again weakened tamely off the bridle. She was very well punted in the last few minutes 33/1-14/1.
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Venetia-watch update
2 winners, a 2nd and a 3rd from 4 runners Cloudy Glen a joy to watch in the veterans race at Haydock-Park Rolling back the years |
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Did you actually bet these horses?
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DD, yes I'm backing Venetia horses blindly at the moment in multiples, plus singles on ones I particularly fancy
So, yesterday, did a Yankee and with 2 winners at 2/1 roughly just lost a little bit on that bet... But, as I highlighted in the pre racing post, I really fancied Cloudy Glen in the veterans race at Haydock-Park, so a single on that put me in front. Also, been backing to lay in running, and all traded lower yesterday With Kim Bailey and James Owen, I'm just highlighting their runners, but usually will back Kim's horses as well |
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The Bailey horses flattered to deceive yesterday apart from Land Afar who won easily. Brenda's Asking tried to make all and just got run out of it while Heros de Romay ran an erratic race which could be explained by losing a shoe in running. Phantom Getaway was awful. Every stable has some moderate ones so you have to put a line through them on another day. Bailey has one short priced runner today.
Back at Wincanton I will be concentrating on Joe Tizzard's runners. Sparkling Duke was a running on fourth last time at 50/1 but he is rather shorter today. Sherborne is a very consistent horse who will probably be second again but with the yard in form at their favourite track, he might just win today. Striking a Pose in the same race makes it tricky. I can't really fancy the 2 Tizzard runners in the staying chase. |
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This isn't my thread, but I would like to think it would be more about individual opinion rather than just transferring data from one place to another. It doesn't mean you have to put up a bet. You can have an opinion on a race without including a bet. So if there are in-form stables etc. it would be helpful if there was some steer as to which one's were the best options should anyone want to back them. You can't back them all, and if you miss the odd big priced winner you can easily end up losing. It's not my way of betting as I always look at the horse first, but the game's about finding winners, the method in getting there doesn't matter.
Yesterday, I put up three pretty good previews. At school I was always advised to include the working as you could get some reward even if the final answer was wrong. Unfortunately, racing doesn't work in the same way. There isn't a reward for a near miss which can be frustrating, but that's the nature of the game, and you have to take those days and just bounce back. Probably a leave alone day today. I did look at the Market Rasen bumper, but with eight runners and the possibility of losing one, I filed it in the too difficult box. Orderoftheday looked the part, like so many from the Doyle yard, but would have been beaten had the second (now with Nicky Richards) not jumped so badly. Kykorock got quite a high GB rating, but it was a small field, and he very is difficult to assess. Espresso Milan has a decent pedigree, but Milan doesn't get that many bumper winners, and the stable hasn't hit form in this sphere. At least they can't hold him up too far out the back in such a small field. Away For The Night doesn't have an obvious pedigree, but has been nibbled, and represents a smaller stable who might just have him more ready than the others. Seemingly unfancied, I will keep an eye on Bel Ombre. He is a full brother to the useful bumper winner, Avakate. Negatives would be the stable (although bumper horse ran okay yesterday) and the tongue tie. If he is still 20/1 at post time I might be persuaded to have a small each-way interest. |
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I don't usually bother with handicaps but I laid the fav in the 1:45 at odds on. Hope to back back and green up later.
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Don't you just love in running punters. Homme dun Soir and Alice Stevens made all but was never favourite in running until the run in. Went into double figures 2 out despite the rider sitting still. With the delay, I never had the courage to pile in as I assumed that it was going to get run over but I never for a moment thought it would be caught barring a serious mistake watching the TV feed. Aprahamian a new name but now 5 out of 7 of his recent runners were in the first two.
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dd you can often get a reward for a near miss if you trade out in running which I do in 80% of races.
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The reverse of following in form trainers is to avoid out of form ones. Star Walking is odds on in the 1.05 but Harry Fry has had 12 losers in a row and no wins for more than 2 weeks. It is the logical choice but I would not risk a penny on it.
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