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Start Of The Jumps
Start Of The Jumps
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Couldn't agree more about the Carlisle bumper dd. Laid the fav at 2.46 lastnight but not for as much as I wanted. Thought there was a few dangers and the Skelton horse if money came would def go close
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I thought Getbazoutofhere (1.15 Lei) could go well as should get an easy lead here, and should be fine on the ground despite winning his last 2 on good. He's been very weak in the market though (currently 9.8)so that's an obvious concern but will risk ew with 4 places.
Wasdell Dundalk looks too big in the Carlisle 1.55(currently 20). He was going fine when fell here LTO and won at the track the time before. His record on RH tracks after a recent run is 111223141F (stats from the Sporting Life). He looks a sporting ew bet. GL all  |
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Oh dear. Not what you wanted if you listened to all the hype surrounding Willy De Houelle. Chief among those almost suggesting the Triumph was done and dusted before the season started being the time boffin, Simon Rowlands. The horse doesn't look imposing, jumped poorly, and found very little under pressure. The winner was very disappointing on the flat, just as disappointing on hurdling debut, but of course he's trained by bookmaker favourite, Joseph O'Brien. It didn't look much of a race at all with the second and third favourites doing plenty wrong.
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Given the level of opposition no better than adequate from Caldwell Potter. Hard to believe he will be going to Sandown, in fact odds on he won't be going right handed for quite a while.
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Didn't have a bit at Fairyhouse today bar the Elliott horse in the bumper. Got my fingers burnt too often in the past with mad results at this fixture. I see it's still the case.
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Update on my earlier post regarding trainers in form...
James Owen East Street won... 11/8 into Evens Snapius very close second, traded odds on, at 10/1 Venetia Loser in East Street race Morning Air won... 15/8 into 8/11 Big Bert to come in 3.30 Carlisle |
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Another shortie downed at Fairyhouse. Looking at the ground unless Lossiemouth is seriously unfit she'd have to be at a serious advantage over Teahupoo.
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bye bye Mr American pie,decent chanter don McLean but !
hard to make ground as the 4th makes up 10 lengths from just before the last |
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With my betting hat on it's been a hard watch today. La Malmason is a horse I have backed a few times. More often than not she has disappointed, but she bolted up today. Another stable that is difficult to fathom. The two horses that I referred to missing the prices were O'Connell (20/1) and Fortunate Man (14/1). Needless to say they were very well backed. The second not helped by missing a couple of fences in the straight.
I think that was again a very ordinary Royal Bond. Romeo Coolio much the best jumper, but hasn't got the gears at that trip. Another duff Festival favourite. Bookmakers also very happy with the novice chase. I suspect that Firefox is better going forward over the minimum trip. |
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I looked at la Malmaison at tea time on slybet last night was 12,s looked 2 hrs later it was 7 to 2,then gags up at 12,s ,one that got away for me
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Race was set up for Teahupoo, but despite that mistake, she has just laughed at him. Hard to believe that she isn't the best hurdler in training, and she probably was last season as well. It seemed to me at the time that they made a whole lot of excuses which came down to them being frightened that she would beat State Man, and consequently, he would never win a Champion Hurdle.
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not sure how you work out a plod round over 2,4 miles against the current champion hurdle fav sets up perfectly for the chelt stayers hurdle champion
BUT THAR YA GO |
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elliott tactics have been v odd this weekend imo
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The pace was slow early with Lossiemouth keen in behind. That was hardly an advantage for Lossiemouth. Beacon Edge has pushed the pace as best he could from around halfway. Had he tried to do that from the outset he would likely have just fallen in a hole, and left Teahupoo in the lead. What would have been the point of that?
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teahupoo should have made it a proper test @ 2m 4f
steady pace wound up late has resulted in him being beaten for toe jockey switch & ground not soft enough as well 2 negs hence the drift |
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When has Teahupoo made the running? Sit and pounce is his style. I thought he ran very well. I think Elliott gave an honest appraisal of all his runners. As I suggested Firefox likely down in trip, and Romeo Coolio up in trip.
I thought for a moment that the Carlisle bumper was going to be a repeat of Big Bert's point win. Went very slow, but ended up walking home. Not today for the Skelton runner. Koktail Brut won the Fairyhouse bumper nicely, but difficult to know what he beat. Second reverse in two days for the Mullins selected. Indirect boost for Sinnatra's bumper win. |
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Lossiemouth,never came off the bridle.Love to see a fully fit Constitution Hill
against her & if all stay fit this years Champion Hdle should be a cracker. |
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I would be surprised if Sir Gino does not prove to be the best GB challenger for the Champion hurdle. He may not have had much to beat at Newcastle but he did it ridiculously easily. Whether he can beat Lossiemouth or State Man is another question.
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Getbazoutofhere ran a game front running race, bsp 14ish. Although the ew money was never in doubt she was comfortably collared by the winner at the last. Might need a returm to 3M+.
Wasdell Dundalk drifted to a BSP of 30+ and was never put in the race. About a 10=1 shot on form, sometimes you have to just let these things go! A bit galling, as the same as dd, O'Connell was also on my radar. I backed him a couple of times last year but had him down as a bit irresolute in a finish. |
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A really quiet day today with Ffos Las off. The 12.20 maiden hurdle looks the best of a very poor offering. Julius des Pictons looks the obvious choice but there could be a few lurkers in there.
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Day off today as only interested in the first two at Ffos Las.
Not sure these comparisons between Lossiemouth and Sir Gino are very fair. Sir Gino won in good style, but the bare form is only what you might expect, particularly with his only market rival not turning up. Bearing in mind they have said that he is brilliant over a fence my fear for him would be that if he did improve enough to win a Champion Hurdle there would be the usual temptation to try and win another one. One thing is for sure, if he hasn't already done so, Henderson needs to make the decision now as to whether it is hurdles or fences. Personally, I think the best he can hope for is second in a Champion Hurdle as opposed to having a favourite's chance in an Arkle. That's assuming he is as good as they say. I know there isn't much ante-post interest on here, but I think the markets this season are really interesting. Normally, there are a ton of shorties, but at this stage so many races appear up for grabs. In particular, the novice events haven't really taken shape. If you are lucky you could still take a punt on a big price, and find it near enough favourite. |
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Henderson should do what he thinks is best for Sir Gino rather be hanging around to see if CH can come out of his box. Surely he's not going to wait until Boxing Day to make a decision.
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Well with Lossiemouth definitely going for the Christmas Hurdle according to the racing manager Today. So will be taking on Constitution Ill or if he does not make it Sir Gino.
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And conveniently, State Man gets a stroll round against a bunch from the scond division, again. Why not throw him in against a decent horse, just for a change?
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OK, doing a couple of horses today, unfortunately both in the same race...
150 Plumpton Firstly small ew on Neil Mulholland Batwomen, can't see why this isn't fav following his last run, the drift to 8s a bit concerning And a bigger ew on Bertie B, also at 8s...the Clive Boultbee Brooks yard near Hereford are mostly ptp but can get one ready for rules, and I'll be surprised if this doesn't trade shorter in running Gl all |
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Well done, forecast ?
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1-2 great stuff Reg
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Thanks lads
Yes, , small rfc as well |
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Well done Reg, nice collection on a pretty rubbish day.
Sorry to say, but I ended up backing Tiptoptim in the bumper after noticing he was on my pointers list about five minutes before the race. Not the way to bet. Snowden bumper horses held up not a good sign. In fact an idiotic ride from Sheehan rushing it up on the outside, and effectively bursting it. Winner took the inside route throughout. King showing he can get a bumper winner when he needs to. If only punters knew when that was. |
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Well done, Reg
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If punters knew which horses were future stars before they ran, the odds would be 1/10. At least in GB we usually have at least 5 independent trainers trying to win a race. In Ireland it is often 2 or even one. There is a lot of ringing round among trainers to avoid each others pride and joy clashing for £5k in a novice race but by and large they choose the race that suits the horse. I am not impressed by the offer at Southwell but the 1.15 seems to lie between a once raced bumper 4th in Star Artist and a ptp winner for the bang in form Olly Murphy. I am leaning towards Star Artist who is related to previous winners for the yard. At Clonmel We have the usual multiple Mullins runners in the maiden novice events so no bet races for me. Even if one of his 2 shorties was withdrawn, hey presto he has a reserve that might run instead. No thanks.
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The middle three were the races of interest for me at Southwell. I backed two last night, Berkenshtaaap (what a mouthful) and Disguisedlimit at 11/4 and 4/1. I cashed out the former (a good move) and unfortunately, the latter is now subject to a large rule 4 thanks to a drifter coming out. Berkenshtaaap was a very easy winner of a backend point. Visually very good, but likely no substance to the race. At 45,000 he would be small fry for these owners, perhaps that's a plus. The sire has yet to make any impact. I doubt he would want it too soft. Disguisedlimit literally ran away with the jock on rules debut, and was eventually beaten a country mile. Not really surprising a hood is applied. I am hoping that they still allow him to go forward. If they don't, a fair chance he will get done for speed. It should be a lot easier to get home at Southwell than Chepstow. The stable could do with a winner. I was very surprised that the market was all over Jordans Cross last night (odds on in places) and that has now turned around. So many of these point winners seem to start at two miles. He should have won his point, but he very much looked a stayer. It's not a great race, but this test could be too sharp unless conditions are slower than given.
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Looking back on Saturday, I thought Lump Sum ran really well, considering he was a bit keen and his jumping wasn't great over the first few hurdles.
Anyone guess/know what his target will be, |
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Disguisedlimit now very weak 7/4-3/1. Perhaps they are going to try and restrain him? Great for the in-running merchants not so good for anyone on early. Should have mentioned Tramuntana who I thought she have got a ban for schooling in public last time 14/1-7/1. Maybe that's just people backing the stable although that hasn't applied to Berkenshtaaap who continues to drift.
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steady change in the list of trainers with a good win percentage in the last 2 weeks. Skelton down to 10% and Mulholland zero! My short list is still Nicholls, Tizzard, Olly Murphy and Owen but if you are hard headed about stats, you have to include Henderson and V Williams. Sam Thomas is still on my list but he has far less runners than those above. Harry Derham is a puzzle. Only 4 wins from quite a lot of runners and the best of those was Washington in Ireland. Paul O'Brien has not won for him in GB for 2 weeks and 14 rides. Harry has a fancied one in the bumper against Star Artist and Berkenshtaap with Alice Stevens riding. Her recent record for Harry is 16412.
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by deffination a nhot list means unless youve struck lucky youve already missed some of the winners which get you on the hot list, and you back all the losers at the end of a hot run before you decide their on the cold list and the winners in between are generaly all over bet
 , the list on here basically consists of the top 15 trainers or so in the UK who have winners, basically what we,d called 2nd tier trainers making the most of pumpkin,hendo not having winners a month/6 weeks ago |
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Apologies, Dramatic Artist is now heavily backed and ridden by Megan Fox. It is developing into an interesting bumper.
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I would liken it to buying and selling shares Ist Time poster. You rarely get in at the bottom or sell at the top. The trick is to find a trainer who has a batch of horses ready to win and back them for a couple of weeks. They are not all over backed. Equally important to spot the ones going out of form quickly.
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