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Only just noticed you sneaked one in Jon! - Very well done.
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Cheers TM. Had a couple of small ones today for an interest.
Colour Sergeant 1.25 Curragh. It's a bit above my usual odds range and the field size is a bit off putting so only a small stake. Winter Thorn 2.40 Nott. Not keen on it's last run so small again. I might keep an eye on the 1.50 at Chester. |
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Hi John - I'm Late on parade having been ordered to attend an enjoyable walk in the sunshine! I am with you totally on the races and the doubts and also therefore on the stakes:
13:25 Curr: It's pretty much impossible to make a case for Colour Sergeant winning (imo). Van Gough is rated 108 and has been 2nd in both a G2 and a G3. Colour Sergeant is the very definition of consistent - always running to a RPR in the low 80's but not ever really progressing. They say never to be scared of one horse but I don't see CS winning and there are also other potential "lurkers" (imo) for the places. Balancing the low likelihood of winning (imo) versus the chances of placing (just money back) or not placing at all (losing 2 steaks) I will pass and would probably rather bet Colour Sergeant Plaice only at 2.0+ (now gone!) - so no thread bet. 13:50 Chest: I like to lay at Chester but only bet there if everything looks right. For various reasons I am struggling to find a selection that I would be very confident about. Pass - no thread bet. 14:40 Nott: I have some reservations so I have bet Winter Thorne EW at 7/2 - but only for half-stakes. |
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No filthy EW's leaping off the page for me today:
I would have considered The Bravest (17:05 Newc) had there been 8 runners but only 7 runners makes it an easy EW pass. The bumper at Roscommon (16:15) caught my eye last night (Velvet Elvis) but the race is packed with potential "lurkers". I thought the 15:20 Bath might have some potential but it looks a bit too competitive. That just leaves the 17:40 Newc with very short priced fav but there are about half a dozen unexposed possibilities for the places (imo). Yesterday was predictably dull - only one selection at half steaks (2nd at 7/2) but dodged a bullet at Chester (13:50) imo. Daily total yesterday: -0.15 Thread Running Total: -2.62 |
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Morning TM. Small stakes again for me today.
Greystoke 3.20 bath but will leave it late due to the dead 8. Velvet Elvis 4.15 Rsc |
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I did like the 4.05 at Wolves (Hemmsa) and the 4.40 (Ibn Arabi) but both are non runners now so that's the end of that.
Knight of Malta looks to be the only other standout one 2.55 Cork. I've also backed Scholastic 3.05 Punch EW early doors at 9/4 but the price has long gone and it doesn't really fit for this thread. |
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Just spotted Jimmy Jimmy 5.20 Punch
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GL with Scholastic Jon (nice price) - she broke my heart last time out running in a classicly perfect filthy race (7/2 versus a 4/7 fav with 8 runners and nailed on to plaice), she traded at 1.02 in-running - but finished second!
I looked at the other two today - especially Knight of Malta (14:55 Cork) because Fiscal Rules (fav) looks like it's could be over-rated and maybe vulnerable, plus the shape of the betting is nice. The problem is, all of the opposition with form look a bit exposed and moderate imo including KoM. I'm gonna pass. The shape of the betting in the Jimmy Jimmy race (17:20 Punch) is appealing but apart from the market indicating it, I can't really select it over Legacy Thor. I'm gonna pass that one up too. I have been thinking I would like to put up some Plaice Only bets (as per my OP on the thread) - but liquidity is so thin that the prices aren't there to any volume and the prices I take would just look like after-timing. I know it's getting a bit boring (no thread bets for me) but I think the P&L will benefit from just waiting for races that I consider to be Classic Filth. Feel vindicated slightly in that yesterday, where I think quite a few bullets were dodged! GL. |
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Doing just fine .......... so long as I don't post them up on here
![]() Horse Racing / 14:55 Cork / To Be Placed Mudawy Back 212554685295 29-Sep-20 14:52 3.6 Horse Racing / 14:55 Cork / To Be Placed Mudawy Back 212554501666 29-Sep-20 14:50 3.4 Horse Racing / 14:55 Cork / To Be Placed Mudawy Back 212554439199 29-Sep-20 14:49 3.25 |
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Well done Jon - Scholastic worked out nicely both in terms of the betting shape (after the drift!) and the result too!
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Jon - I'm not giving you another well done for Jimmy Jimmy!
![]() But a winner all the same. ![]() |
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Very lucky there TM. I'm glad she walked way from that it looked nasty.
Well done on the Cork race. I always thought you gave the Irish racing a swerve? |
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Yeah - not at all keen on it Jon - but the more I looked at that race, the more I disliked Knight Of Malta (who was taking up a huge % of the Plaice Market). Figured if you excused Mudawy it's last run (on soft) it was the only one open to progress with the extra furlong kind of clinching it. It wasn't a big bet but thought the (Plaice only) price around 3.50 was well worth a punt in a very poor field. Speak tomorrow.
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A proper grim day for filthy ew bets (imo) - Considered the 16:10 Punch, 16:55 Kemp and the 18:00 Kempton races - but nothing looks very "classical" and all a bit too speculative for me. Another day plaice laying in the handicaps for me. Let's hope all the jockeys remember to weigh-in!
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Agree TM. Only two small interests for me.
Adace 4.55 k Carboard Gangster 4.10 Punch Both have drifted since I backed them so not overly confident. It doesn't fit but I've also backed first Smile 4.25 Kemp @ 2/1 early doors. Good luck with the lays. |
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Happy enough with (no thread selections) yesterday as the 3 "considered races" were all won by the very short priced favs and it was entirely
"lurkers" that filled the places in two of the three races, so very pleased to have passed them over. There are seven meetings (UK and Ire) today and 46 races! - I have looked at lots of the "tempter" races across the water plus the 14:55 Sals & 16:25 Chelms but I don't see anything solid enough for a filthy each way bet (imo). GL. |
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Had a small bet on Champagne Piaff 1.55 sals.
I'm also on Hardly a Bloke in the 4.20 at Clonmel but it's not classic filth. |
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Jon - I came close with Champagne Piaff at Salisbury (13:55 race rather than 14:55 typo!) as the market doesn't seem to like ANY of the FTO "lurkers" at all - but just felt there were too many of them! GL
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Well done Jon - my cautious approach and inability to commit to thread bets is ruining the thread P&L!
But I did get a teeny little bit of the 6.0 on here (EW market) and moreover I got pretty lucky (imo) with a plaice lay of The Attorney - saved by a "lurker"! Well done. |
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Two from two for you Jon - very well done! - and it drifted to each-wayable before shortening again!
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Cheers TM. I backed the Irish one at 7/4 early doors which is he lowest I will go.
BOG came to the rescue yet again. |
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It's a quiet one for me today. I've had a small bet on Paycheck 7.00 Newcastle.
I looked at the 1.45 Hex and 6.25 Newc but drew a blank. |
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Nothing quite filthy enough for me Jon
![]() The 18:25 & 19:00 Newcastle are both tempters but will pass. |
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Is it me or is PASS RUSHER a cracking bet @ 50/1 in the 2nd @hexham won a strong maiden point @ larkhill and has course expiriance finishing a staying on 5th last time..... Will surely run well and could easily place...
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Hi Skip - it's the kind of race (in terms of shape of the betting) where I sometimes like to dutch a couple of speculative big prices in the Plaice only market or perm a few at huge prices in small stake ew doubles - but after looking at it last night and again today - I just wrote the race off as too speculative/difficult imo! GL
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had some nice touches at hexham over the years.............the fav could "bounce" 2nd fav won a terrible 2 finisher mares only maiden....and the selection finished with plenty of running left here last time out .........just hope its "off"...deffo a horse to keep an eye on...
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Nice one Skip! - was about 80 for the win and 10 for the place on here when you posted - ran a cracker.
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well done skiptoomaloumacari ran very well.
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yes, still feel a bit gutted !!!!!!!!!!!
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Friend of the thread Model Guest (under yet another different jockey!) touches 1.14 in-running before getting collared on the line. It was a Handicap but god bless her!
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I think that's 15 different Jockeys she's had now in her 20 races.
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Has Nicola Sturgeon given any tips yet? I don't think she's as keen as Alex Salmon. ;)
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Two for me so far.
Duffle Coat 7/4 365 2.00 Gow. My minimum price. Messalina 6.30 Wolves. |
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Sitting pretty with duffle coat now!!!!knew Elliott would of take one of them out...... Should of popped to betbalds last night and backed both of them....
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Morning Jon - I was hoping for some Group One ew filth at Ascot
The NR spoils the 14:00. Both the 18:30 and 19:00 at Wolverhampton look potentially pretty good to me - but Messalina is completely friendless (at time of writing) with all the support for Fauvette and in the 19:00 Sunset Kiss is also a drifter (at time of writing) for the pittance matched so far - pretty sure I will have a bet but with 6 or 7 hours till race time - happy to wait for any NR's and let the markets do their thing for a bit longer! |
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I've just got out of Duffle Coat with 25 quid profit on 365. I know some disaster would inevitably occur if I stayed with it (small field boggy ground).
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3.10 Gowran definetly fits maths wise. Not too keen on last run
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I'm going to swerve the 18:30 at Wolverhampton - I don't like betting FTO's each way (fauvette) and the market (although sometimes completely wrong!) is just too negative about Mesallina to believe that she is a "cert" for a place.
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I have backed Sunset Kiss ew (on here) at an average of about 9/4 (3.25).
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Not sure it was worth the wait - but finally a filthy ew thread bet for me - and it's a winner - Sunset Kiss at 9/4 (2/1 ISP).
Daily total: +2.70 ![]() ![]() Thread running total: +0.08 ![]() ![]() It would have been more profitable to just look down the back of the sofa - but pleased to have resisted a lot of temptations and recovered from a shockingly bad start (-7.47 at one point). |