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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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Replies: 1,823
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Thanks Kenny - hope you are well, it's nice to know I have at least two readers, having suspected it might be just the one!
The thread is a bit of a slow burner (after a grim start) I'm afraid - but confident it will come - so long as I don't try to force it. GL |
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I'll have a bash at Jesse Evans. Like you TM I can't see anything else
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GL Jon. At least you know (by my omission of it as a thread bet) that it probably has a live chance!
 Embarked just gave the very bravest and most speculative of EW thieves a vg run for their money there in the 13:30. It still looks unlikely there will be a Filthy EW bet in the 17:00 but not quite sure what Shine For You has done for the form (in relation to Eastern Delight in that 17:00 race)  |
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13:42 Marseille: The Manager (absolutely bolted up!)
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luvly jubly!!!
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Well done Jonmh (again!) on Jesse Evans - I think you owe me a pint for not selecting it as a thread bet though!
 Not sure if that was one of the best or one of the worse rides I have ever seen - giving him the benefit of the doubt - it was super cool! |
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Chances tomorrow..as long as the brown envelope withdrawn don't appear!
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could be a few today. Only just fits but i quite like the shape of the 6.10 newcastle. 10/11, 9/4, 12s bar
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could be a few today. Only just fits but i quite like the shape of the 6.10 newcastle. 10/11, 9/4, 12s bar
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Good morning Jon & Kenny - it did look (last night) like today could be action packed with filthy EW races - but already the 13:30 Beverley and the 18:10 Newcastle have been spoilt by non-runners (imo).
The 13:15 Warwick (King Eric) is now a NR and the 13:45 Warwick (Hawridge Storm) were both interesting and EW "tempters" on the shape of the betting - but I have slight reservations about the 13:45 - so no filthy EW twig-hopping thread bets for me today. I'm left with just the 15:20 Listowel (where I will almost certainly bet Bluebeards Castle as an EW single if it still looks like 8 runners nearer the off-time). It's the usual dilemma even there though - with an 8 horse race - I wanted to take the 4/1 (now long gone) or 7/2 (going fast) but don't want to be stuck with two places if there's a further NR. The flip side - it will probably shorten more if/when 8 runners look certain! Also still looking at the 17:20 Lingfield but there isn't any value in EW single bets (with books) at the prices available - as two separate bets on the Win market and Plaice markets are much better prices on here (albeit for about a fiver!). I might well play plaice only. Back with more as/when things develop. GL. |
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Bluebeards Castle into 3/1 at best (lots of 11/4) in the time it took me to type the above ^^^!
I now see that Andy Holding has tipped it!  |
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15:20 Listowel (Update) - I have now backed Bluebeards Castle EW (at an average of just above 3/1).
Solely on the ratings Agitaire (rated 97) is close to Listed class and will probably bolt up - given that this is a mere 7k maiden. He's relatively consistent but has had 11 goes without any success (including at some pretty short prices), not convinced he will win a handicap off his current rating and 1/2 seems short enough for a horse that has had good chances already. The EW selection (Bluebeards Castle) is a short enough price itself (at time of writing) but I want to oppose the fav with something EW (in a pretty filthy 8 runner non-handicap race) and by a process of elimination BC is the last man standing! Price on BF EW market (4.1/4.2) seems fair given that it includes insurance against a NR or a last minute stalls refuser. 15:20 Listowel: Bluebeards Castle EW (on BF EW market at 3/1+) |
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slightly tempted to have a small ew on Kornflake 6.10 newcastle
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Hi Jon - I am gonna stick for the day on thread bets -
I considered Kornflake in that 18:10 race and also Taameen in the 17:20 at Newcastle (I fancy it for a place) but if I bet those two, I'm not sure where I draw the line in future - as they both feel like they are slightly too risky (imo) At least that gives you a chance if you play! GL. |
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Not a very exciting day with just one EW selection (finishing placed) - but happy to have swerved a few of the races that I declined to play in.
Daily Total: -0.40 Thread Running Total: -2.47 Just chips for tea! |
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Had a small bet on aim for the stars 6.00 k
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Morning Jon - I have been looking at that race (18:00) and obviously the 17:00 too, on an otherwise rather dull day for EW stealing.
I have written the 17:00 race off as just a non-handicap with a very short priced odds-on favourite - i.e. I have no clue or strong view whatsoever as to the Plaices! It's a race full of "lurkers". 18:00 Kempton: Would really like to take the fav (Perfect Inch) on with an EW - but really struggling to split Aim for the Stars & Aroha! Your selection went off very short (5/2) FTO from a yard that can ready them - and would probably have finished 3rd (a few lengths behind Model Guest  ) if she hadn't been stopped in her run. I see she also lost a shoe and she was a tad slowly away imo. She is much more likely to improve/progress than the other two at the head of the market but she will need to. Aroha has the kind of profile I would normally (win) lay all day long (rated highly from placed form in high class races but unable to follow up when presented with much easier opportunities in lower class). However she is pretty consistent and Perfect Inch could be well on her way to a similar profile! I'm not usually sentimental but Aroha did me a big favour (placing at 5/1) two runs back and I'm struggling to dessert her! It's difficult to articulate but - If Perfect Inch is to be beaten, I prefer Aim for Stars (for the win) but from a "certainty to plaice" perspective (at the relative prices) I prefer Aroha. Will watch and wait for now. |
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I wouldn't be against your one EW Jon (given the profile of both Perfect Inch and Aroha) but the combination of my indecision and my day so far (it's been as close to perfect as it could be - excuse the after-timing!), I am gonna give you a better chance and swerve the 18:00 Kempton for thread purposes!
It's been a weird but wonderful day - apart from all the NR's the markets just don't (imo) seem to have taken the significant going changes into account and I already feel like I have got away with murder on the Plaice laying front. GL |
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Management: Just looked at the 6pm Novice race. Perfect Inch is waaaay to short. Trainer is cold as a wet turkey (no winners for a while)
Watson first time outer with Hollie on board would be my idea of a good E/W (related to a few winners). I will prob back it to win (small stakes). Meehan's looks good as well by Kodiac whom I like. Backing both of those. Your Aim for the Stars has been backed today so maybe that is the one! I do think the fav will get beat its just where your pin lands... G/L |
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Hi punts (well done on Act of Wisdom!) - it's the "pin" aspect that has put me off!
The thread is specifically for "filthy each-way" races - they vary in composition (imo) but generally my definition would be - dodgy/under priced fav - that I feel my selection has a chance of winning but that I feel certain it will finish plaiced. I just don't have that feeling here - there are 2 with "good" (albeit plaiced) form, One very likely improver and several other "lurkers". GL but no bet here. |
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I'm pond- ering whether to join in on this stuff
(seeing as everything else I'm doing at the moment is all at sea). I'll try not to carp on about it though.... In all seriousness, an excellent thread and good luck with it, TM and others. (I'll join in sneakily....  ) |
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Welcome RB - after a diabolical start, it's a bit of a slow burner rather than a get rich quick scheme - but we will get there!
Fish puns are optional but it's reely good to sea somebody finally making the effort! |
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Happy to have dodged the 17:00 Kempton. I can't remember the last time I didn't have a bet in an 8+ runner stakes race with a 1/4 fav
- but pleased to have passed it up. |
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WD on the Plaice Jon.
What looked like a beatable odds-on Fav just got beat at 4/9 - but not by either of my potential candidates, so I'm glad to have left it alone! Aim for the Stars ran a nice race and Aroha got absolutely murdered in-running by the Fanshawe horse - but in all fairness Aroha seemed to be giving up the outside birth to nobody at the time anyway! No thread bets, so no progress on the thread P&L - but a few bullets dodged imo. |
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* ^ outside berth
(as opposed to birth - to be clear - no alfresco midwives were required in this race!).  |
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Cheers TM, BOG helped again I took 7/2 early on. Not a lot again today but keeping an eye on the 5.05 at Listowel. Druid's Alter has taken my eye but i'd like to see the fav a touch shorter.
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Nothing for me today Jon.
I looked at the 17:05 Listowel because I have the Fav (Yankee Stadium) "notebooked" from last time out (it got stopped in it's run a few times and had nowhere to go - but it also got a very tender/gentle ride imo!) - but I expect the rest of the world saw what I saw and also has it notebooked! I was rather hoping it might come up against something when running next and be a backable/EW price but that is not the case. GL |
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I hope you took a (BOG) price on Druids Altar Jon - some strange (imo) changes to the shape of the betting now! - that combined with the Heavy going means it's still a race to just watch for me - but the market likes your one.
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Well done Jon! - you are slaying it
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cheers TM I was on a 3s
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Nothing for me on Friday. GL all.
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Not a dirty EW, but I have had an EW single in billys shops on Cloak Of Spirits 1.50 Newmarket. The 5 places makes it a good bet in my opinion,I just hope there are 14 runners.
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I'm going to keep my eye on the 2.50 at Haydock. Slightly interested in Worldly Wise.
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12:30 Uttoxeter - New Moon E/W
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vwd..second again.
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Cheers sofiakenny,I did not know if she would win but was pretty certain that she would be in one of the 5 places.
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thin on the ground today
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Agreed Jon - I agonised over the 12:55 Haydock for a while but there will be more clear cut opportunities imo - no filthy EW bets for me today. GL
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I've weakened and had a very small interest on Annie Pender in the next at Listowel.
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Which was nice
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