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13 Sep 20
11:54
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Date Joined:
27 Dec 00
The sole thread for fish based puns, filthy Each Way bets, Plaice only bets, and Each Way Multiples.
Today I will mostly be backing Segla (13:35 Bath) each way at 11/4 (current price) as all the 10/3 and 3/1 has gone. Not at all convinced he will win but the Fav has a few question marks (imo) and very happy with 1.55+ for the Plaice element of the bet. Would maybe have liked to have made it the banker selection in some Each Way doubles with a few shorter priced ones in earlier races to get some (win) money "running-on" and maybe recoup the win steaks - but there are no (relevant) earlier races and the dead eight runners in Segla's race is also a worry. So just the one Each Way Single for me at 11/4. Hopefully the thread will win a few squid. May Cod be with you.
Today I will mostly be backing Segla (13:35 Bath) each way at 11/4 (current price) as all the 10/3 and 3/1 has gone. Not at all convinced he will win but the Fav has a few question marks (imo) and very happy with 1.55+ for the Plaice element of the bet. Would maybe have liked to have made it the banker selection in some Each Way doubles with a few shorter priced ones in earlier races to get some (win) money "running-on" and maybe recoup the win steaks - but there are no (relevant) earlier races and the dead eight runners in Segla's race is also a worry. So just the one Each Way Single for me at 11/4. Hopefully the thread will win a few squid. May Cod be with you.
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Happy enough with that - he was beaten easily enough (1.5 lengths) in the end by the 2/7 fav - but ran well enough to go odds-on in running and forced the 2/7 fav out to 2.30 in running! The Plaice was never ever in doubt (which is the aim of the game) as it finished 12 lengths clear of the 3rd placed horse (and all 8 actually ran!). Shame about the lack of opportunities for filthy EW's to double up with it!
Thread Running total: -0.45 |
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What's your next selection TM as I might follow you in after a heavy night. I like the EW steals I may add.
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That was my sole filthy Plaice bet for today Stewarty - I will be back with more when the betting is right. GL
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No probs TM. I'm done for the day anyways.
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To clarify - I'll be active in the Plaice markets all day (I average about 80 Plaice backs/lays per day) - but I'm only gonna put the Filthy Each Wayers on this Thread.
For example the 15:05 is interesting and the very short priced fav gives the betting the kind of "shape" that appeals to me - but pretty much every runner is a potential "lurker" and I wouldn't have my life on any one of them definitely finishing in the frame! They won't all Plaice - but the thread will focus on Plaice certs (imo) |
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GL TM.
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Not feeling the best so I haven't really spent much time on this today.
Obviously the 15:45 at Thirsk potentially presents a number of "over-broke" EW/place opportunities with the betting being: 1/25, 8/1, 66/1, 66/1 & 66/1. If all 5 run - It's basically free money or free bets or a bit of both - but if there is a Non-runner or a late refusal to enter the stalls, it would be a disaster (all steaks reverting to win only) and a small miracle would be required! I liked the 8/1 (especially when it was 10/1 last night!) about Ooh La Lah as a foundation/banker for some small steaked speculative each way doubles. But the lack of any blatantly obvious double material and the fear of being "all on to win" is enough to persuade me to leave it alone today on the Filthy Front. GL if you do dabble on any Plaices. |
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Dont really have a lot to add on this race but decent thread.
Fair point...mulled the maths over and if you are happy to take 1/2 that the 2nd in is 2nd then you've got a bet for nothing in the win market. Good work. |
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issiris used to charge £1750 for this kind of info. cheers.
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 Issiris1) You can have it for free from me. 2) If I go on a bad run (it's rare but it can happen) - I won't suddenly start advising martingale steaks or bets on random tennis matches  3) I'm in no hurry - but the thread WILL show a profit. |
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4) They would have advised Lady G (Each way)
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fav is there for a piece of work..not sure i'd take 1.6 ooh la lah in 1st 2 market though..ran terrible lto and other 3 all up 4f.
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Aye and add to it the fact if you were the trainer would you want it getting too close to the likely winner?
That being said...hard to hide something 12f in a 5 runner race Thirsk |
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I agree with all of that (hence no bet) - but purely on the filthy Plaice front (which is the title of the thread):
£100 ew at 8/1 consists of one terrible value win bet (and very likely a losing bet) at 8/1 (when you can get more than treble that price on here). But by betting each way and accepting that terrible value win element of the bet, you have also got yourself £100 at 2/1 on something that should be 4/9 or 1/2. If you got the 10/1 last night, you have (probably) got a £100 losing win bet at 10/1 but you also have £100 at 5/2 on a selection that should be 1/2. Stick it in a ew double with a shortie (that you feel could win but will certainly plaice) and you have a nice bet. Alternatively - lay £200 plaice on here at 1.50 - you can't lose! - Providing all 5 make it out the gates! I wasn't intending to highlight filthy arbs - but I didn't have the time/energy to sort out any ew doubles/multis today. I kind of hope it doesn't Plaice now - but if you are getting get 1.75 (equivalent price taken at 8/1 ew imo) about 1/2 or 4/9 shots on a regular basis - you will do ok! |
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^ typo - last paragraph should read:
* getting 1.75 (equivalent price taken at 10/1 ew imo) |
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Post race analysis not really required (as it was a no-bet) - but Ooh La Lah did run a very good race imo.
There was only a split millisecond if that (imo) where the 1/28 fav backers might have needed new trousers - but realistically and more importantly Ooh La Lah landed the other/separate race for the Plaice odds just as comfortably (if not more so) as the fav landed the win odds - Ooh La Lah's place odds of 1.67 (surprisingly big plaice SP imo) were about 11 times bigger than Lady G's win odds! - and while she was beaten by over 4 lengths there were then 18 lengths back to the 3rd placed horse. Long term - the danger of a non-runner or refusal to enter stalls etc - will always make these a no bet imo (nobody wants to be all in to win at 8/1 on a 30/1 chance) - but hopefully I might do some small stake speculative doubles/multis in similar circumstances next time. May cod be with you Plaice bettors. GL. |
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and the 17:15 at Wolves goes to the filthy each-way!! |
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how did ooh la lah run so bad lto..and fav backers sweated for 100yds imo..
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I couldn't say (why so bad lto) greenteeth - but RPR of 13 suggests (to me) that something wasn't right and you can ignore/forgive it.
It's performance FTO was like gold-dust (imo) in the context of the 3 rags in today's race. Just my opinion obviously and now the race has been run, it will seem like I am after-timing - but if the fav was a non-runner, 4/6 about Ooh La Lah versus those 3 would have seemed like a gift (imo). |
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The best book I have ever read was the Royal Commission on Gambling (Rothschild Commission) in 1970something. I got it by skiving off uni and going to HMSO in Holborn on the day it was first available to the public, I can't remember the cost but it was very very expensive to a skint student. I spent the next couple of weeks reading both volumes (apart from all the rubbish on slot machines and bingo). The thing that hit me was the statistics, an analysis of which revealed that the best price to bet each way chances was around 5/2 - 3/1, just selecting at random gave a small positive return expectation. Nothing in horse racing has changed over the years to make me change my mind on that. Good luck with your thread.
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Thanks Nebs. That's interesting and I would total agree with your thoughts/view on the ew price range.
Obviously i'm only interested in "filthy" selections (usually 2nd or 3rd Fav in a non-handicap race with an odds on fav and 8+ runners) - and for each way doubles and multiples etc I will go as low as Evens and (in very speculative bets) as high as 25/1 and sometimes even as high as 66/1. Once you have established that the place part of a bet is wrongly priced (over-priced) it just makes sense to multiply that by as much as you possibly can! But with filthy each way singles I would conclude (like you) that 9/4 through to 7/2 is the most profitable range. In brief, I think below that range whilst the winners will obviously be more frequent, the very regular loses (for placed selections) are significant and add up more quickly than the short priced winners can recoup it. Also whilst unplaced selections will be much rarer, in the shorter priced range, they are a bit disastrous! In contrast once you get above 7/2, obviously the winners are great and the placed-only returns are much less of a drain - inevitably unplaced selections will be more frequent. Obviously price taken is everything - but if you break it down at industry SP, 9/4 through to 7/2 (in the right races) is the plaice to be! |
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I will skip the long winded analysis of races that I'm not going to bet on because I am not Kevin Pullein (
 ) and I'm not getting paid by the word! - In summary: No bets today.If you are desperate for a filthy each way bet, you could do worse than look at the 15:50 Redcar, 16:20 Redcar & 18:10 Kempton - but then again if you're desperate for a bet, this thread and probably this game ain't for you imo. Good luck Plaice bettors and filthy thieves. May cod be with you. Rico & Green - may all your shorties Skate in! |
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Not feeling 100% (again!) but have taken/will take the 3/1 about each of these in Each Way singles:
13:15 Bev: Cobweb Corner (taken 3/1) 16:05 Bev: Jacattack (3/1 seems fair - but will wait as long as possible for non-runners as price seem pretty static) GL to all the Plaice bettors and filthy thieves. |
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13:15 race a bit frustrating - the odds on favourite runs like a drain - but the selection chosen to oppose it with runs like a sewer!
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16:05 Bev: Jacattack was a Non-runner! - so not a great day!
Daily total: -2.00 Thread Running total: -2.45 The slow drip fills the bucket! - but the bucket currently appears to have sprung a leak!  So total Carp and a load of Pollacks so far. I know it's Shellfish of me but I think I just want to be left Abalone now. I am hopeful of some Turbot charged Plaice selections to Skate home tomorrow. GL. |
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if fav had broke well it wins on the snaff...ran well under the circumstances imo.
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That's one way of looking at it Greenteeth - the way I saw it - you owe Dougie Costello a pint - for not being too bothered about 3rd place!
Bottom line is the one that I selected - ran like a crab! |
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Get back on your perch TM.
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Good advice leif.
My thread is beginning to flounder already. |
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Finding one regularly must be a right headhake to be fair.
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Yeah, it's one elver job.
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try to pike one that runs tomorrow.
Tope you do well,anyway. GL |
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bring back Mr Lucky15!
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1.15 Pont?
4.10 Yarm? |
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Sounds like your in the tenches already
 you eely need to start a winning run imo |
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Hi jonmh - very good to see you again!
I totally agree that those are the likely races today - but I'm struggling pretty badly to commit to any selections! 1:15 Pont: Too many lurkers! Plus Roydmoor has had quite a few go's already, has a best RPR of only 69 after 4 runs. Plus it's drifting like a hippie on a gap-year. Only 7/2 (best with books) but already 13/2 on here, approaching Evens in the plaice market and 11/2 in the EW bf market! 16:10 Yarm: I won't often do FTO, although the Haggas horse does look a strong candidate. The Gosden horse (The Circus) is difficult to like imo - has had four tries all in class 5 and has a top RPR of just 72. Even the great Johnny G is resorting to headgear! Dead 8 runners. Think I will just keep my powder dry today. GL |
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The Haggas FTO'er is by Kodiac (a king daddy sire). Very interesting I think it could be ready today because Marquand is on it.
Punters will back the Stoute odds on horse thereby creating the value. This should be on your list Management if you can take the risk. I will prob back it for a few quid . Thanks for the heads up! |
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Still looking at it punts - but it doesn't really fit my criteria. The Stoute horse makes the (Each Way) market interesting which is my start point. Plus I don't like the Gosden horse (unless blinkers transform it - but that isn't totally out of the question) - but I don't like FTO (I'm looking for selections that I feel can't fail to make the frame) - Any non-runner or late refusal to enter the stalls would be a bit of a disaster for EW bets and the other 5 runners could be anything (all you have to go on is the market). So too many ifs and buts for me. There will be better races for my approach - but GL.
It's a day where I might have done some speculative EW multis (write off or try to green back the win element) and make a few squid from the places but the odds on offer in the Plaice markets are actually quite a lot better than the EW options, so would probably be better doing double steaks (place only) on here than single steaks ew with the books! |
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> I don't like FTO
Fully understand Management but Haggas is one of the few trainers you can back FTO (imo). Its a risk ... I'm usually prepared to take it with this yard and jockey booking is interesting. The question is will it be ready to win or will it get a nice "introduction". Without inside info we're simply non the wiser. I have taken 9/2 on here |