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GL Skip (and Jon) - I wasn't overly convinced about anything at all this morning but there were potentially a handful of races with nice looking betting shapes. I have passed so far and I am also going to pass up the 16:25 - so you fellas should be ok!
![]() Nothing quite filthy enough for me today. GL. |
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Very good effort def looked the winner at several points and 1.43 In Running - not too much damage done.
Jon - you have sneaked in yet another winner - 16:20 Orgetorix - well done mate! |
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Had a good bet on Scene Not Herd at 2-48 Hexham at 11-4 must go well.......all favourites form at speed tracks which will make Hexham a bit of a culture shock..........My old friend Pass Rusher is in the race as well.....but i think this is a much better race than last week..
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Cheers TM. Late start today it was a heavy night.
1.40 Chep the obvious one looks to be Bourbali. Dead 8 though. 5.25 Chelms Lovely Breeze. Dead 8 again. Not so filthy: 2.28 Hex Forever Des Long but not 100 percent on trip. 1.35 Fair Heaven help us to small stakes in the hope that it will jump better. All in all more questions than answers. I'll back them but won't be going mad. |
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Hi Jon (and Skip) - agree more questions than answers - nothing "classically filthy" - the only long odds-on fav is 15:15 Fairyhouse but there is only really the market to go on (imo) in terms of splitting about six runners for the places! Nothing much else looks very filthy at all.
Looked at the very mildly dirty: 13:20, 13:35, plus the 14:28 (which one of you should win!)- but I think I have ruled them all out. For a thread bet, I am still keeping a close eye on the 13:40 Chep, 15:45 York and 17:25 Chelmsford but not in a hurry yet - with any further NR's still potentially impacting the Plaice terms. GL. |
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Just added Elvrika to my not so filthy list. 3.45 York
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Not really filthy enough - but Have now gone half-steaks EW on Bourbali (13:40 Chepstow) GL
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Market told the story - and pulled harder than a Jack Russel at a rabbit farm!
Very well done Jon! - with Heaven Help Us (13:35 Fairy)- won very nicely! |
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WD Skip - Scene Not Herd (14:28) - not filthy enough for me! - maybe I need to get up earlier.
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Nothing filthy about it but just got away with one at York (15:10) - Plaice laying the horses drawn 1,2,3 and 4. I still think I had it totally right (the draw) - but stall 6 wins and I toyed with plaice laying stalls 5 & 6 as well before deciding against it! - Got the full house! Sorry for the aftertime!
I've now EW backed both Elvrika (4/1 on here) and Invincibly (9/2) in the 15:45 York - but ONLY for buttons and I'm going to give that race a swerve for thread bets as it just doesn't feel filthy enough for a bet let alone a two-bet. |
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Lost some of my buttons there
but pleased to have swerved it as a thread race. ![]() Just the 17:25 to go and it will need some major movements in the market between now and race time to make that a bet for me. |
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Swerving this 17:25 Chelmsford for EW filth
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gone in on Glydebourne in 5.25...will be gutted if can not make frame.
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Fair play Kenny - no damage done there.
Only EW thread bet (for me) was 13:40 Chep: Bourbali - 4th at 5/1 (for half stakes) Daily Thread Total: - 1.00 Running Thread Total: + 1.30 |
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I am looking at the first at Newton today..........in the assumed non participation of Flic Au Voyue i think Stormy Flight ticks all the boxes.........Honest Exchange is a big embyonic chaser and will find the track sharp enough and The Mick Peston won a joke race at Hereford in december ........with hood added i"m sure he"ll go well.......
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I like the shape of the 4.10 Curragh. A few alarm bells are ringing about the race though. I'll back Run For Oscar to small stakes.
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Busy morning here - mowing lawns while it's finally possible!
I think I'm going to swerve the 13:45 altogether Skip but agree it looks very interesting if Fic au Voyue doesn't run. I'm still quite interested in the 15:55 Goodwood (providing no more NR's), the 16:10 Curragh (possible 2-bet?) and to a lesser extent the 16:50 N.A. - no point in rushing for any of those though - as NR's will have a bet changing impact and the current odds with books look skinny enough! GL |
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Third fav has come out of the 4.10 Curragh and the market looks even better.
4/7, 10/3 14s bar. It's still a **** race though but looks good on market shape and numbers. |
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Hi Jon - agree the NR makes the 16:10 Curragh of more interest on shape/maths but i also agree it's a **** (Mickey Mouse) race
![]() The jockey on Run for Oscar is 3 from 8 in actual flat races and most of his "jumps" rides were actually in INHF races. I think it probably has to be done! |
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I've been bitten too many times in those Irish mickey mouse races (50 rated horse finishing a few places ahead of a Melbourne Cup winner for example) so paranoid about them now.
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But Brian - how very dare you! - It's the Derby!
![]() ![]() lol - I totally agree with you - but I think I will probably get sucked in just on the shape/maths ![]() |
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actually really fancy Run For Oscar...........have to admit i like these races......
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The current price win/place and ew on here is a bit worrying - but Shirley too big imo
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i"m having him in a e/w double with Eldorado Allen.......
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I know it's not "classically filthy" - but I have now bet Stanley Baldwin (at 5/1+) EW in the 15:55 Goodwood and also had three-quarter stakes EW on Juan de Montalban (at 9/4 ish) in the same race.
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yes not sure how strong that Goodwood form last time was , Stanley looks all about stamina......
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Thought the same Skip (Stanley Baldwin) but thought extra distance and going might assist today. No damage done.
On Run For Oscar at an average of 9/2 - done a full steak even though the race has a Mickey Mouse feel to it! - 9/10 for the Plaice seems ok. |
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Grim!
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hung like a gate........thought he was going to win 2 furlongs out......didnt go through with his effort....as you say GRIM....
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Well done Skip! - I assume you "re-loaded" on Eldorado Allen.
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indeed ....
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Well done! - and the drift (on here) was (frightening) but nice!
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I have managed to screw up my thread bets (once again) today - betting EW in just two races - breaking about even in one (not very filthy race) despite having the winner and losing/unplaced (4th) in the other (very filthy but Mickey Mouse) race. I also managed to dodge the nice priced (4/1+) winner in the 16:40 at Newton Abbot as a thread bet (despite the betting shape going in the direction I was waiting for)! - As ever though - one of you two or both (Skip/Jon) has put up the winner(s)!
Daily Thread Bet Total: -1.98 Running Thread Bet Total: -0.68 - in terms of fish puns - feeling a bit battered on my thread bets ![]() See what tomorrow brings with 4 UK flat meetings. GL. |
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Well after yesterday's kick in the nuts i'll put these up with some trepidation.
5.10 Windsor Segla. I think it was the first bet on the thread. 2.45 Kilbeggan Champagne Diva 5.50 Kilbeggan Dark Spark. FTO though so if I do play it won't be for much. And a not so filthy on in the 5.00 at Wolves Amazing Anna if all 8 go . |
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I'm struggling a bit here today Jon - those are the best looking races and are also the ones I have looked at, I'm just finding it a bit hard to fancy any of them at all except on the shape of the betting.
14:45 Champagne Diva - the trainer is in cracking form but the horse looks moderate and has more of a lay profile than a bet profile. The betting indicates an EW bet for sure - but asides from the market/prices it looks like 5 or 6 of them could have a shout for a place on form/ratings. 17:00 As you say - not really a filthy race - I won't be having an EW bet in that race - so you are probably onto a winner there! ![]() 17:10 Segla - looks the obvious choice - but nothing (that has run since) from his previous two races has done anything much at all for the form - the going is Heavy and there are quite a few potential improvers/lurkers (imo)". 17:50 Still smarting from my "Irish venture" yesterday - and as you say Dark Spark is FTO. It's from a yard that I consider a bit "all or nothing" with FTO - so it could well win but could equally easily finish unplaced. I think I will take a day away from the Filth (it might do me some good) and focus on my Handicap Plaice Lays in all this soft & heavy ground. So it's probably a good day to do a win yankee on those four! . GL. |
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Agree TM it looks like a day for kids bets
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i am considering an each way punt on Rome Imperial at windsor ...........will love the ground and could easily plod into a place.....
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Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Very well done Skip! - huge price on here.
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Very well done skip !! And a very wise move to swerve today TM.
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