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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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I spent a day in one of their shops that was doing a similar (but not quite that generous an) offer once Skip
 . There was a stake limit but surprisingly the chosen meeting that day had three semi-filthy races on it.  Makes it tough to lose.I have now done Aim For The Stars EW in the 20:30 at Wolverhampton (it drifted nicely!) and am in the process of also doing Satono Japan in the same race. GL. |
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£20 is the limit,,,,,
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 - enjoyed that! |
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Well done fellas well worth the wait...TARTAR for now
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Cheers 37+73 - and fish puns are always most appreciated.
Just the 13:25 at Naas and the 14:15 at Sedgefield with any potential today (imo). 13:25 Naas: I would like to oppose the fav (Coulthard) at its tissue price with something EW but it looks like I'm not the only one! - He is (at time of writing) trading at 2.80 versus a RP tissue price (last night of 2/5)! Yulong De Legend looks the most obvious EW choice but there is very little (evidence) to go on and only the market to guide on some interesting lurkers & FTO's. I think I will probably swerve the race but happy meanwhile to see how the market develops (at current trend Coulthard might soon become Each-Wayable!). 14:15 Sedg: Lovely betting shape, 8 runners (hopefully!) and very short priced fav. But nothing evidential to go from a NH perspective (imo). I have swerved other races due to unknowns about FTO's, so think it makes sense to swerve this one. GL. |
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I have a bit of a dilemma about settling the 20:30 at Wolver last night for the purposes of the daily/running thread bet P&L.
I'm happy to admit that I didn't anticipate the massive late support for the Crisfords horse (Approach The City) and consequently the pretty huge drift on both of my filthy EW selections. So in all honesty the initial prices that I secured (mostly on here) were significantly below their (massive!) SP's of 13/2 (Aim for the Stars) and 5/1 (Satono Japan). So I feel a bit guilty about claiming ISP - but on the flip side, the more they drifted the more I upped my stakes - to the extent that I ended up pretty much double staked on both of them (actually slightly more on the winner). As such (and given that anyone not taking a price at all or getting BOG would have secured the unexpectedly generous SP's) - I am going to settle at ISP for the purposes of the thread P&L as I believe that to be fair. Yesterdays thread bets were: 20:30 Wolves: Aim For The Stars 1st at 13/2 = + 7.80 20:30 Wolves: Satono Japan 3rd at 5/1 = 0.00 Daily Thread Bet Total: +7.80 Running Thread Bet Total: + 8.18 |
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I'm going to swerve the 13:25 Naas - Coulthard has become each-wayable
but appears to require a leg count! - To be fair I like to lay horses with Coulthards profile (highly rated from ok runs in much higher class races but thus far unable to reproduce it in lesser races). Plenty money for the Bolger and Lyons FTO'ers but I don't really have an angle (apart from the market) for splitting any of the next three in the betting. Swerved. |
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The Filthy Each Way option wins the 14:15 at Sedgefield at 9/2 with the 4/9f finishing just out of the frame!
 - But I can't be getting involved (EW) in races where the market or betting shape are the SOLE indicator (imo). I hope some of you braver or more cavalier Filthy Thieves had a go. That's me till tomorrow. GL |
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not much today the first race at Plumpton looks attractive ,but is a fair bit more competitive than it appears at first glance ,so i will leave that alone .....the 4-35 at Gowran is of interest because the fav is unraced ........Lady Dahlia looks bound to go well as does La Joya..........However the most interesting race of the day for me is the 8-30 at Wolves , which looks a match between 2 VERY well regarded horses........tempted to back both of them and let the magic of B-O-G do its thing......be interesting to see how the market develops....
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Good Morning Skip (and Jon) - plus any other "Filthy Lurkers"!
Looks ok to me for a few possibilities today: 12:45 Pont: Only 7 runners but the 3 place market might be worth a look if/when BF put it up! The Fav looks plenty solid enough but always interested in races where a 2yo odds-on fav is conceding weight on soft ground. Probably not a Filthy EW thread bet but worth monitoring imo. 14:10 Plum: Agree with you this could be more competitive than the betting/tissue implies - but may still be interested in the Nicholls runner (Hugos Other Horse) all the same - getting weight from the fav, on "good" ground and dropping back in trip - will monitor. 16:35 Gowran: Looked at it again (since you mentioned it) but still just looks a bit too Irish and a bit too competitive (imo). 19:00 Wolv: Country Charm looks like she could be an EW bet to nothing - gets weight from Charlie Fellowes who hardly looks progressive (maybe transformed by cheek pieces LTO? but not sure that he beat anything much? - as something maybe amiss with Pivoting?). Will monitor prices and obviously any NR's as dead-eight. But Country Charm looks a likely EW imo 20:30: Wolv: Agree - something Filthy needs to be done with this race!! Torn between your approach (backing both EW) especially if able to time a flip-flop - but also considering the Stoute horse (ew at a price or Plaice only) getting weight - if able to forgive LTO? - undecided atm. A potentially interesting day. GL all. |
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Morning all. Strange weekend for me, over indulgence in the pub on Saturday afternoon saw me miss Aim for the stars but I did manage to back the one at sedgy yesterday.
Agree with all of the above. Good luck today. |
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I've just taken what was available ew on here (£28) on Country Charm at 3.45. Will keep an eye on the market.
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Fair enough Jon - eliminates the worry about a NR.
I have now swerved this 12:45 Ponty for thread bet purposes - can't quite accept the prices available for only 7 runners. |
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- that's very annoying - would have got away with a "two-bet" even with just the 7 runners! |
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14:10 Plumpton: Hugo's Other Horse - I missed the 6.60 available on the EW market here when I first posted today (at 10:08am)! -
it was a decent chunk available but went completely unmatched (it was then cancelled prior to the support arriving after the initial massive drift) but the whole £2.50 matched at 6.20 in the EW market is mine!   In total I am now on EW at an average price of just above 4/1 (5.10) for half steaks.Wouldn't be surprised if it drifts again to a bigger price or if it shortens again - but either way - I'm gonna stick to half-steaks. |
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I can live with that (a total loss - but only to half steaks) - still smarting at the +7.88 pts missed out on by not thread betting the two-bet in the 12:45 at Pontefract. On to the proper racing on the Tapeta
this evening. GL. |
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I will TUNA in to the 8.30 Wolves to CATCH the fanSHORE (sea)horse rainbird HOOK 3rd PLAICE (if not BATTER than that)...It got squashed like a SARDINE last time, costing it several lengths,finishing behind Sat Wolves 8.30 (Tait trained) winner !!!!!!! Gets weight from the top 3 (hope 1 of them has a CARP day), and I think it has improvment in it (big GREYLING oss), with 1st time Visor fitted.....Just think it`s the value of the race and maybe able to R..EEL them in? sTROUTe`s maybe forgiven it`s last run because it was CAST wide, used up too much energy early on, and was TACKLE LING a longer distance on a slow ChelmsFORD,so the 1st 4 market maybe my PORT of call later. Good Luck all.
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Good Evening 37+73! - top fish-punstering imo!
 I am still contemplating how best to tackle the 20:30 Wolves race. Meanwhile I have gone and had a two-bet on the 19:00 at Wolves though - full skate EW (at 11/4) on Country Charm and half-skate EW (at 5/1) on Tamigi. |
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Don`t like the 7pm at all TM, but having studied the replays for the 8.30 I think the top 2 ran in arguably worse races than Saturdays 8.30 Wolves (formLINE), giving rainbird a R...EEL chance of getting a PLAICE.Hope it doesn`t FLOUNDER and SKATE`s in. It has TRIGGER(fish)ed win/PLAICE (3+4) bets
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Thinking I might skip the 20:30 altogether due to indecision - not a lot of mileage or upside in backing both the front two EW, Fancy Dollar bid as a potential ew bet to nothing but can't really see it winning
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yes thought one might drift to a backable price .......but no sign of that happening yet.......
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Screwed up the 19:00 - not just with the additional selection (Tamigi) but also the prices on both of the selections!
Apparently my unpaid chauffeuring skills are now required - so I'm gonna swerve the 20:30. GL to all my Filthy friends if you play. |
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Got a run for my money....small profit on it....3rd would have been nice, but it`s better than losing !!!! Tomorrow is another DACE !!
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Sovereign Duke 1-40 Exeter ..........no brainer for me today
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Morning all. Agree on Sov Duke skip and i'm on at 6/1. There's not much else that I can see other than the shape of the 5.05 at Kemp (11/10, 2/1 11s bar). I'd be interested in Night Narcissus if there's a drift. Good luck.
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Morning guys - I have done Sovereign Duke ew at 11/2 (13:40 Exeter).
Looked at the 17:05 AT Kempton as the betting is a nice shape but I agree with you Jon (Night Narcissus) - and wouldn't really want to do the Hills horse which will probably be the filthy ew option on the maths. Looked at a couple of races in Ireland (13:20 Fairy & 15:50 Tipp) but they aren't for me. GL all. P&L from yesterday to follow (emphasis on the L) |
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Yesterdays Filthy Thread bets were:
14:10 Plum: Hugo's Other Horse - EW to Half-Stakes - unplaced at 3/1 ISP (backed at 4/1) = -1.00 19:00 Wolv: Country Charm - EW - 2nd at 7/2 ISP (backed at 11/4) = -0.45 19:00 Wolv: Tamigi - EW to Half-Stakes - unplaced at 11/2 ISP (backed at 5/1) - -1.00 Daily Thread Bet Total: -2.45 Running Thread Bet Total: + 5.72 |
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I know it cuts both ways and levels out (good and bad fortune) - but we got away with one there - which was nice.
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115 her
2.00 font 5.45 kemp 6.45 kemp I don't fancy much in any of them but to be honest my opinion seems to be more of a hindrance lately. Horses that I would traditionally fancy on recent form etc are running like drains whilst others I wouldn't usually touch with a ten foot barge poll are going in (FTO at sedgy the other day, 3.50 at tipp yesterday to name but two of many) . I might just play the numbers pre race to small stakes today and let the dice roll. |
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Hi Jon - i am always interested in your opinion.
If feel the same as you atm - the races with just a nice shape are producing the winners and I have been swerving most of those or at least swerving them as thread bets. The problem (imo) is that true "classic" filth is pretty damn rare these days (imo) - I always think if you have to look at a race for more than about 30 seconds, then it's not classic filth. That just leaves us playing in dirty races most of the time (imo). I believe I still have a decent edge playing in just slightly dirty races - i.e. just choosing which odds-on favs to bet ew against - but it can be a bit of a rollercoaster. On a high, we can dodge all the non-placer races and bet all the winners but when in a dip we sometimes play in all the non-placer races and swerve all the winners. I feel like I've been in a dip pretty much since starting this thread but I take heart that it shows a small profit even knowing that it has been an absolutely rotten 6 weeks. Still looking at today - but wanted to get that of my chest |
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Totally agree TM. They should leap off the page and no too many are at the min.
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dangled my maggot at a couple at Hereford today Mick Mona in the first Young Buck in the 2-25
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Currently thinking of swerving the 13:15 Hereford, 14:00 Fontwell, 14:25 Hereford and 17:45 at Kempton - and maintaining an interest in the markets of just the 18:15 and 18:45 at Kempton this evening.
Yesterdays Thread bet: 13:40 Exeter: Sovereign Duke - EW - 3rd at 11/2 ISP (Backed at 11/2) = +0.10 Daily Thread Bet Total: +0.10 Running Thread Bet Total: + 5.82 |
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I was with you on Mick Mona skip. Backed the third as well so no harm done.
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I've had a small stake ew on Rookie Trainer 2.00 font
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I got very lucky there. Reminded me of Jimmy Jimmy a few weeks ago.
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Very Well done Jon
Just to underline my rant from earlier - when looking at the 14:00 (at the time assuming the fav would be odds-on) I had it down as an EW two-bet (Van Meegren & Rookie Trainer). That pretty much sums up my last 6 weeks on the filthy front! - still no damage done here and a nice winner for you.  |
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It cuts both ways Jon - take it when it is going your way - it will even out - and it sucks when it goes the other way!
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Certainly does TM. Had another daft little ew on Ones are Wild 2.20 Gow.
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was considering Van Meegeran......really hope was ok .......
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