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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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19:30 Newcastle - I have now backed Habit Rouge EW at about 10/3.
Sorry to post so late - but liquidity is a joke. |
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Got one!
Backed off the boards very late on (into 15/8 fav!) - as the Gosden horse drifted like a barge - but plenty of 3/1 was still available Habit Rouge on here (and with books) when I posted. GL. |
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Well done TM a nice winner there.
Just one for me so far today Hart of Steel 1.25 Hex 3/1. Fav odds against but the market still has a decent shape with a 16/1 4th fav. To be honest the 4th fav is usually the first price I look at and if there's a big gap then I start fishing. Anyway GL everyone today however you play. |
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Good Morning Jon - thanks.
I think I might take a day away from the filthy EW's - the best potential races look to be 12:50, 13:25 & (maybe) 15:22. I don't mind going against the general market view on a big drifter or steamer but (at time of writing) Rochester in the 13:25 needs checking for a pulse! - will watch with interest. I like your selection (Hart of Steel) in the 13:25 but I can't split it from Dubai Days (apart from the market and lack of a recent run) and don't fancy doing a two-bet in the race. Also I have missed the prices! So will give it a swerve and just cheer for HoS. I don't really like Irish Maiden Hurdles - but the betting and betting shape in the 15:22 is quite intriguing. I reserve the right to post a bet later but at this point in time - I think I will have a filth free day and focus on my Handicap lays. GL everybody. |
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Yesterdays Filthy EW thread bet:
19:30 Newcastle: Habit Rouge - EW - 1st at 15/8 ISP (Backed at average of 4.33) = + 4.00 The selection was subject to quite a gig market move just before the off - combined with a pretty huge late drift on the Gosden trained tissue fav. I do appreciate that claiming 10/3 is a bit cheeky but there was still plenty of 4.00 available on here in the EW market at the time I posted, although it did go pretty sharpish just after I posted. Habit Rouge had drifted badly all day and despite getting matched at 5.60 in the Win Market I was struggling all day to drip pennies at a time into the EW market at prices between 4.80 and 4.50 because liquidity in those markets is completely GRIM until just prior to the race. I refuse to work that hard for a price and then not claim it. I'm not sure if anybody reads the thread anyway - but if anyone has a problem with prices I claim - too bad - don't read the thread. I have rounded down prices on other winners/placed selections in the past and my conscience is clear. I also completely trust Jon/Skip when they post a price. Daily Thread Bet Total: + 4.00 Running Thread Bet Total: + 8.42 |
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Patience pays off well done.
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had(dock) a bit of the early 10-3 Hart Of Steel...........1-25 Kelso...will also almost certainly having a dabble on my old friends Run For Oscar and Sword Zorro...........
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Cheers MWTT
Morning Skip - I hope that Run For Oscar and Sword Zorro make you a few squid. I do like RFO if it could drift again or a bit more - as I missed the peak price on the first drift! |
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I've had a kids bet ew on this Nicholls horse in the first at kelso.
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Poor from start to finish. That pulse was barely there.
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Market just hated it Jon (and was correct) - it would have been even more heart breaking (Trooper Turnbull) if doing a two-bet though! GL
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Yep it would have been a double kick in the nuts TM. I may have a small two bet on the 1.20 at Lep just on the shape.
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feel iv missed out there .........maurices are ALWAYS trying and often outrun their odds........
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I know what you mean Skip if you wanted to oppose the very short priced fav (which is the name of the game) and heeded the market on the PN runner - it wasn't too much of a stretch - but a bit too speculative for the thread imo as pretty difficult (imo) to feel it was a cert for a place. GL.
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Unlucky Jon - I just can't get a read on AOB or JOB with their FTO'ers - they do me over either way and the market doesn't always seem to know.
Will have to swerve the 13:25 as I have missed the prices completely - but rather wish I had gone with the two-bet now! - you guys are sitting pretty with 3/1 and 10/3 though. |
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 One for the good guys! - very well done on prices!I would have got away with the two-bet too - as although finishing in a different time zone to the front two - Lucy got 3rd as well!  |
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Cheers TM a good end to what was looking like a poor day. I can't see much else other than the RFO race at Galway which I will probably swerve i think. GL on the rest of he day.
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Probably likewise Jon - it's not the end of the world if you lose or place only on the kiddie stakes and win with the big ones on your main fancy. Have a good one.
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Well done Skip - Sword Zorro (13:55 Leopardstown) - just a tad too short for me (EW) but never in doubt.
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Gonna swerve the 15:22 at Galway - I have completely missed the (earlier drifting) price on Run For Oscar - more tempted now by the GE horse at the current prices but I had it down as a 3 horse race and the market says Mighty Tom may also be a player. Swerved but GL Skip.
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yes glad i avoided that one..........
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That's me finished with the non-handicaps for the day (no thread bets). Catch up tomorrow. |
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hi all...i know its early ,but try to stay on british summer for a bit after the clocks alter.......the first at Hexham looks a perfect race......and the fav is well worth taking on with 2 useful opponents up against him...Sophie Fatale is rock solid has very useful form at the track and can go well fresh.........however i suggest we snaffle any decent early prices about Blazing Port....he showed smart bumper form for Tristan Davison last season and is bred to be more than useful.......whatever Nick Alexander paid for him i can assure you it wont of been small fry..
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Morning all. So far i've two bet Sophie Fatale and Blazing Port following skip in, i've backed Gibberwell in the 1.00 at Wexford and a not so filthy on Mighty Meggsie 4.45 Gal. May be more to come.
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I'm with you on that race Skip (13:25 Hex) - and will be playing it as an EW two bet (Blazing Port & Sophie Fatale).
I have 10/3 Sophie Fatale EW but she is a big drifter and currently showing above 7/2 now on here (in the EW market) and could yet drift higher. I have also taken 10/3 on Blazing Port EW. Can't see how ISP could be much bigger unless they really pile into the fav. Still looking at other races (mostly the 15:35 & 16:02) - having ruled out 13:00, 14:05 and 16:30 races. GL. |
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Sorry Jon - crossed posts - good morning! or good afternoon on forum clock time.
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No real damage done (-0.67 here from 4 stakes), gotta be happy with the 2 placing really - especially given that Blazing Port drifted to BFSP of 9.0! |
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Very well done Jon - Gibberwell (13:00 Wexford) some very nice prices available too!
- some 6.00+ on the EW market here - but liquidity still as grim as ever! |
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The 13:07 at Wincanton goes to the "mildly dust" runner too! - not quite dirty enough for me with just 7 runners.
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fingers crossed the 4-02 @ Wincanton stays 8 runners ........think Getabuck a good bet at 8-1 ....Fav couldn"t win this race last year on seasonal debut , so why any different this year??
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I was still interested in that race Skip (16:02) and possibly the 15:35 too - but I am now so green on the Aberdeen/Celtic match (sorry for after-timing) - that I think I will swerve the rest of today (horse-wise) and wait for some more "classic shaped" EW races in the coming week. GL all you filthy EW thieves!
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Southern Girl is now calling to me in the 14:05! - fav (though obviously the likely winner) looks short enough imo. Definitely time for me to pack up for the day when the 6 horse races are calling to me! Catch you all tomorrow.
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Well done Skip - Getabuck (16:02 Wincanton) ran a very nice race a huge (BF) price.
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indeed got a bit excited there...............still nice each way doubles with the hexham 2.........
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Todays Filthy EW thread bets:
12:25 Hex: Sophie Fatale - EW - 3rd at 2/1 ISP (Backed EW at average of 4.33) = - 0.33 12:25 Hex: Blazing Port - EW - 2nd at 4/1 ISP (Backed EW at average of 4.33) = - 0.33 Daily Thread Bet Total: - 0.66 Running Thread Bet Total: + 7.76 |
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Morning all. A few today but they seem to have question marks hanging over them all.
1.50 Redcar Aroha has had plenty of chances and was out with the washing last time. 3.05 Gal Cannoli/Starting Monday neither have done much so far. 12.55 Wexford Homme Dun Soir. Seven months off, hurdles debut. 3.50 Wexford Everything in this race seems to have a question mark. 4.25 Wexford I'll probably have small stakes on Il Courra. I usually avoid the races paying just two places but there's two today that I can see. 12.50 Leic Dark Illusion looks ok but slight doubt over trip? 3.20 Newc Amtiyaz looks like the only threat to the fav. A lot of head scratching. |
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Morning Jon - I agree with you, it's a good day for betting shapes but not so much on substance. Also agree a couple of the
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I like Soapy Stevens.......................
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Morning Jon - I agree with you, it's a good day for betting shapes but not so much on substance. Also agree a couple of the.........??
..... sub 8 runner races have possibilities. I think I will have to "play as I go" today and will try to post selections prior to the races. Gutted that Model Guest  is a NR in Aroha's race (13:50)! - GL all. |
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I've gone with dark illusion in this 12.50 to small stakes.
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