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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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Morning Biff - welcome to the thread - you appear to have chosen a very opportune day to join in - some very interesting races today - and more of them than usual!
I would agree that I have been too conservative in my selections but then again if I were just pursuing "classic" filthy, there would have actually been even less selections. Also agree some of the other posters are a bit cavalier (at times) but that has worked out pretty well for them thus far imo. Agree too, that striking the right balance (somewhere in between) is absolutely the best place to be - but I think that's a lot easier said than done - and certainly a lot easier said than it is proofed with selections! I am very much up for multiples/accas (as per my opening post) and that is still my intention - but I was hoping to accumulate a bit of proven profit from the singles first - and that has taken a lot longer than it typically takes me and a lot longer than I thought it would! My MO is more straight EW accas or if doing doubles/trebles etc I would typically include a banker or bankers to reduce the cover/perms and stakes required. I am not a fan of the Lucky 15 (as an EW bet) or any bet that involves "full cover" at equal stakes, especially each-way - For me, 30 (equal) stakes is just too many and I rarely have 4 strong EW fancies on the same day or 4 fancies on the same day that I fancy equally. I can't get the (treble odds for only one winner) concession - but appreciate that might make it much more interesting as a bet - but still not sure it's an EW bet for this thread - If I could get it (Treble odds), I would probably utilise it as a win bet in Handicaps on horses from a very specific price range. I think a lot of people go wrong with equal stakes on too many perms i.e. full cover bets. - To me 5 selections doesn't mean I have to do 10 doubles and/or 10 trebles etc. These bets ALL fall apart (mathematically) if/when ANY ONE selection doesn't win or is unplaced. Bankers can be used to significantly reduce stakes imo. Anyway, it's possibly a rare but very opportune day for some multiple action - so looking forward to everyones selections. GL all. |
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Morning Jon! - we crossed post again!
I think I am with you on all those races and maybe even a few more - it looks like a potentially action packed day ahead! I also have a lot going on with backs & lays in the AW Handicaps (totally separate from this thread). That, combined with a few "dead eights" means I think I will just post thread bet selections (before the races) as I go along today. Mostly interested in the 13:15, 13:50, 15:06, 17:45 and 19:30 but a couple of other races have also taken my eye - it's going to be hectic imo! GL mate. |
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jon,
i can't see an angle on the 3.50 at Clonmel either. Western Victory wasn't convincing the last day in a bad race even if you discount the fall Andalucia's collateral form is better. Ratings give Western Victory a few pounds in hand and prices reflect that. it's a small stakes bet race for me currently don't have an opinion on 1.50 stratford card looks interesting and will at least enjoy watching it |
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I've decided to back when your'e ready to small stakes (i'm a bit wary about the lay off) 3.06 stratford at 16/5 and a bit of 3s. GL all.
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I am now swerving anything EW in this 13:15 Lingfield - the betting hasn't (at time of writing) gone like I thought it would.
Mariance looked the obvious one (EW bet to nothing) and I really liked it for a place when it was drifting - but I thought it had more of a lay profile than a bet profile for win purposes. Now that the MJ horse is completely friendless and Mariance has been steamed-in, I have missed the bigger (ew) prices on Mariance, so I will have to swerve it! I have actually put Mariance up as a win Lay on another thread (Stridings Nap Lay Comp)!  |
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 The Market knew - I have missed yet another winner for the thread P&L in what turned out to be a fairly classically shaped race! Still - no damage done here (no thread bet) and I hope/expect some of you were on it at half decent prices. |
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ffs now the 13:20 Clonmel has gone to the filthy option (Boher Cailin) for you more cavalier filthsters!  |
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No idea how but I completely missed that 1.20 TM
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I had the race on my "maybe" list Jon - but the betting only went really utterly filthy closer to the off time. I just sat and watched it happen!
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On Envious Editor - Half Stakes at 5/2 in the 13:50 Clonmel.
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Went 1.2X in running - which was exciting
- race goes to the clear 3rd Fav at a very nice price - but would never have considered a two-bet on that race tbf. |
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I have now backed Above Suspicion EW (14:36 Stratford) - No liquidity whatsoever in the EW as usual (until off time) - so have 9/4 the win and 2/5 the place as separate bets - but just wanted to post it as a thread bet before the race.
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I'm with you there TM. Half stake for me.
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i"ve been going to and watching races for nearly fifty years ,, not seen many starts like that
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Going nowhere fast here Jon - but not too much downside yet either.
I have joined you with - 15:06 Stratford: When You're Ready - EW - missed your prices but on at approx 5/2 average. |
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well done TM. I've small staked Villerbaunne ew here 3.15
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One for the good guys! - Well done Jon! (nice prices for you too).
Skip - Thought that start was going to sort us EW thieves right out (14:36)!, even thought the fav was gonna unseat while under orders at one point - but it seems nobody else wanted to start without the fav (except me and Jon!). Biffmeister - I hope you did your Lucky 15 (that you posted last night) - going very strong at halfway and the best two races (imo) still to come! |
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GL jON - LEFT THAT ONE ALONE AT LEAFY!
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Happy with the plaice. Didn't look likely at the turn.
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No damage for you there Jon - ran on for 3rd like a good one - once the race was over!
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We are pretty damn good at synchronised posting Jon!
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Sir Michael Stoute ended a run of 20 odds losers on the bounce (many of them at very short prices) when Buick steered Sorrel (3/1) to a pretty easy victory in the 15:45 al Lingfield.
And although it will probably sluice up (it looks bullet-proof on ratings alone) - I want to oppose his (Oisin Murphy ridden) hotpot Mars Landing with something Each Way against it in the 19:30 at Chelmsford - because the maths dictates that it must be done! I have now bet the obvious EW alternative - At Ease (ew) at average odds of about 3/1 (4.00+) although I'm not mad about the Jockey or the Trainer! I also intend to have a half-stake ew on (the drifting like a barge) Born to Sire. GL Filthsters! |
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^ The last line of my 17:49 post got deleted? ......
At risk of backing the whole field EW Against the fav  - I would be a bit wary of money or Plaice money for All Of The Lights, which to put it politely, was given a "very strange" ride LTO by the jockey (Kieran Shoemark) that is tonight aboard my main EW selection. Adam Kirby takes over on All Of The Lights this evening. |
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I'm on at ease on here as it's beer o'clock and I don't fancy the thought of the dreaded non runner. Backed it at 3.75 and it went straight to 4.1. Anyway GL and catch up tomorrow.
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Yeah - market loves the fav (which is fair enough imo) and hates everything else atm. Have a good one Jon, catch you tomorrow.
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I think I'm gonna swerve the 17:45 Southwell (so you guys should be ok with the love of my life - Amor Di Mi Vida).
That looks the obvious one ew against the fav - but I just think (unless it drifts a fair bit or the fav shortens quite a lot) it is short enough itself (Amor Di Mi Vida) atm - because there are a few potential "lurkers" imo - Tatsthewytodoit (looks a possible but is giving them all a lot of weight), Driftwood (wasn't far behind the fav FTO and could easily improve), A pint of Bear (Ditto - only a length further back in same race), etc, etc. |
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Wow - got a swerve right and saved a couple of stakes (that makes a nice change - they usually bolt up when I swerve them on this thread!)
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The layers queueing up to lay At Ease - are making me feel anything but at ease! Plenty Plaice money for some of the "rags" too - I think it's going to ne "one of those" races.
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A beautiful result for the thieves!
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BOOM !!
I obviously won't claim it on the thread P&L but I ended up nearly double staked (trying to unsuccessfully) consolidate my price and stake! It just kept fecking drifting! |
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Well done Biffmeister -
For someone that harps on about prices being the be all and end all - I have screwed up something rotten on pretty much every price today - but had it right off anyway! |
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I know one of them finished out of the frame Biff (17:45 I think?) but did you manage to get the other three of them 2/1, 2/1 and 5/1 in any kind of multiple?
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Sadly no I didn't, I went off the winner in the 3.06 ( it was s Jonjo's after all?!), and did a few "semi filth's instead", but coming into the 7.30 decided I wasn't winning enough if At Ease was to win, so smashed in a nice each way single at 11/2 a couple of minutes before the off! A nice end to the day. Hope you had plenty on - sounds like you did!
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Oh well - a VERY good day nevertheless.
I did have plenty on (but not for lack of trying to reduce my exposure!) - having over exposed myself as the price got bigger and bigger, the market just never went back, so I just couldn't have laid off without giving far too much value away. So I fully expected to have to just sit and suffer! The one thing keeping me sane was that the win price drift (out to 9.00+ ffs) was never really mirrored in the place only market. So although I thought my win stake looked horribly vulnerable (I had mentally kissed it goodbye when it hit 9.00 in the win market!) - at least I knew I had about 1.89 ish average place price about a horse that was still trading 1.40 to plaice (that I thought should be even shorter than 1.40 to plaice). It's a funny old game! Slightly gutted that my real world profit today is very significantly higher than I can legitimately claim on the thread P&L (which was in need of a boost) - the pressure of posting definitive selections (and prices taken) in advance is starting to irritate me a bit - when many of my decisions/plays are often totally price dependant, so bets placed (or not placed) pretty close to the off when liquidity is high but prices can move quickly. It makes it difficult not to look like an after-timer (on price). Not sure what to do about that. Will work out thread P+L in the morning - I have an appointment with a beer! Cheers! |
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Nicely done TM. I often wonder that on the "cast iron" each way theft races like the 7.30, if so many people are backing the second fav each way with the bookies and perhaps laying off the win part on Betfair, the win price gets artificially high?
I know the on course books (not at the mo though of course!) will run scared of such races and the win price will be lower. Wouldn't worry too much about the thread profit compared to your real world efforts, that's what really matters! And I must thank you for starting this thread, even though we think we're good at what we do, its always good to hear others views and learn more stuff. Anyway, enjoy your beverage, but hey tomorrows cards look pretty good again, and they won't study themselves!! ( 3.55 Weth, 12.50 Utt, 1.25 Utt, 12.40 Down, 1.15 Down look likely, but there may be others too. Cheers |
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Thanks biffmeister - totally agree - everyday is a school day (never stop learning) and it's always good to talk.
The thread has a lot of upsides imo - putting your opinion/selections out there (pre-race and with prices) does make you think long and hard before committing to print (which is good) but that same principle (thinking maybe a bit longer and a bit harder) can also be a downside if it prevents you from making decisions or from committing to bets! - It's just a forum at the end of the day though - it's not life or death!  Re - prices on the 19:30 -To be honest I'm not too sure where prices (SP's) are coming from anymore - I figure that most books (when they were on-course) would be betting "win only" (wherever possible) on races like the that 19:30 - maybe that explains the price? Not to sure but it was a 121% book in the end (same % as the 13 runner handicap run minutes later!). Tomorrow does look promising for a few races - having just had a very quick look. Not filthy - or maybe it will be - but I also noticed my favourite maiden filly (Model Guest) is running in the 19:15 race  Catch you tomorrow. |
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Morning All..........had a quiet day yesterday while all you filthsters were filling your nets with cash!!!!......had my fingers burnt to many times by JonJo trained animals ( can never work out if he is a fr***ster or just a really poor trainer..)....The Cob really ought to be getting in the frame in the 12-50 Uttox........always worth taking on a fav who hasnt run for 18 months no matter how good the form appears...and he looks crying out for the step up in trip....
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The 12-40 at Down Royal is more appealing after Elliott has taken out the second fav (a usual trick with him).....can"t see Legacy Thor being out of the frame ...........One of my more speculative ones is Buzz de Turcoing...3-55 Wetherby.......don"jt get me wrong the fav looks a good thing , but it is ridden by H Skelton who is always a man to take on at a short price and the selection does boast some seriously strong novice form last season ,,,,just worried about the hood coming off as he can be very keen in his races...we will see!!
Tight Lines every one.......  |
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Morning all.
12.40 Down Royal - I think i'm going to have a small two bet on Pat's Pick and Legacy Thor. 3.55 Wet - I'll prbably back Heart of a Lion on shape/numbers. 12.55 Utt - I'll keep an eye on this for now. 12.50 Utt - Undecided at the min 3.10 Utt - Gumball but dead 8 1.15 Down Royal - Dead 8 but will keep an eye on. Lets hope for a decent day. |
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I may now add Buzz De Turcoring to Heart of a Lion as skip's speculative ones are worth noting
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