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This Plaice is Filthy!

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By:
The Management
When: 26 Oct 20 13:48
I'm on too Jon - full stake EW at 3/1
By:
jonmh.
When: 26 Oct 20 13:52
oh well
By:
The Management
When: 26 Oct 20 13:53
Yeah - thought the ground would be a leveller - but it worked the other way!
By:
jonmh.
When: 26 Oct 20 13:58
Well two more for me I'm on Amtiyaz 4.20 at 7/4 and Il Courra 4.25 at 9/2.  Small stakes there's an inner voice telling me today has disaster written all over it.
By:
skiptoomaloumacari
When: 26 Oct 20 14:04
bookies coining it in today........
By:
jonmh.
When: 26 Oct 20 14:11
Typo on Amtiyaz it's 3.20
By:
skiptoomaloumacari
When: 26 Oct 20 14:51
aroha getting well backed .........must be a lot of very forgiving punters out there........
By:
The Management
When: 26 Oct 20 15:08
After that last run, it was just one of those I couldn't play (Aroha) - if it had drifted you couldn't back it and if it shortened (as it did) it would seem too short anyway imo Shocked
It ran it's race today - but pleased to have just watched.
By:
The Management
When: 26 Oct 20 16:00
I'm done with EW's for the day - just the one thread bet for me - which ran like a drain - everything still to come looks either a bit too short or a bit too speculative for me. GL.

Todays Filthy EW thread bet:

12:50 Leicester: Dark Illusion - EW - 3rd (unplaced) at 11/4 ISP (Backed EW at average of 4.00) = - 2.00

Daily Thread Bet Total: - 2.00
Running Thread Bet Total: + 5.76
and going nowhere fast!
By:
The Management
When: 26 Oct 20 16:29
Well done Jon (15:05 & 15:20) CoolCool
By:
jonmh.
When: 26 Oct 20 17:35
Cheers TM.  Of those two I only ended up doing the 3.20.  Il Courra turned out to be a nice result at Wexford especially with the BOG.
By:
The Management
When: 26 Oct 20 17:36
It's getting annoying now Jon! Laugh

- yet another winner for you - 16:25 Wexford: Il Coura  - well done!
By:
The Management
When: 26 Oct 20 17:39
Crossed posts again Jon - yes 6/1 is very nice. Grin
By:
The Management
When: 26 Oct 20 22:01
Looking through tomorrows cards Cry - I have some jobs to do, that I have been putting off for a while, tomorrow (Tuesday) looks like the day to do them as the racing is absolutely dire from a Filthy EW perspective.

Back Wednesday. Good luck all!
By:
skiptoomaloumacari
When: 27 Oct 20 05:57
couldn"t agree more................been up early for study ,all way to competitive.......
By:
Brian
When: 27 Oct 20 11:20
I've mentioned this before on one of The Management's thread (which I always read with interest), sadly the glory days of each way "thieving" betting has long gone though as people have demonstrated here there are still some opportunities.

I had been an each way bettor since the 1960s and had done well by them. When I came to look at giving up work at the beginning of the century and earning extra income(on top of reasonable pension) each way betting was going to be my main weapon. My records show decent each way profits for 2000-2007 then vey much declining profits until 2013 (not helped by heavy bookmaker restrictions) when I just about give up on the strategy and found other methods to keep my hobby going. I can't recall what year the bookies got control of the betting market but that was another massive nail. I can remember race odds of 1/6, 7/1 and 25/1 bar and no trouble getting each way bets on (at least to reasonable stakes). Things were not always better (like betting tax) but each way betting certainly was.
By:
jonmh.
When: 27 Oct 20 11:35
Well as grim as it maybe today the 2.35 at Bangor has tempted me in. 10/11, 100/30, 10/1 bar.  I'm on Percy's Word ew at 100/30.
GL if anyone does decide to play today.
By:
Cupwinkcook
When: 27 Oct 20 11:39
would agree with Brian

i spotted a 7 to 2 shot one morning, up against a 4 to 6 fav, thought both similar chances
9 runners became 8 when an outsider dropped out
2nd fav drifted all day on the exchange but was reasonably strong at the end, sp 9 to 2

at no point, was i convinced he would be trying, so left it
fav was stuffed, 2nd fav just about won

but at no point did a punt with the books match a win and place effort on the exchange

even when the price eased on the machine, the bookies price stayed the same
and a drop to 7 runners would have made the place part a millstone

i was stung badly in a group 1 many years ago
2 late nrs - both rags ruined the place terms
so wary since

5 runner races at least are more managable if they drop to win only

it's a minefield

i don't have a problem getting bets on, coz plenty of shops near me, but the price control is the issue
By:
skiptoomaloumacari
When: 27 Oct 20 12:41
2-35 @ Bangor the only interesting race today...........Percys Word look obvious just sure how strong that race at Perth was and a better bet in opinion is LLandinabo Lad , who boasts some seriously strong bumper form.......his debut 4th beaten just 5 1/2 lengths by Chantry House , with Edwardstone 2nd and Shan Blue 3rd is without doubt the strongest form in this line up......His Ascot 2nd is not too shabby either ( Third Time Lucki 3rd ,Highway One O Two 4th )...he got stuck in the mud on truly terrible ground on his last run ,but still put up a respectable performance ........he has to be backed at a double figure price ...imo
By:
skiptoomaloumacari
When: 27 Oct 20 15:44
NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
By:
jonmh.
When: 27 Oct 20 15:44
Well done skip that was a great shout !!
By:
sofiakenny
When: 27 Oct 20 16:36
vwd skip..top bombing!
By:
37+73
When: 27 Oct 20 16:37
aye aye Skip(jack tuna)....great call
By:
The Management
When: 27 Oct 20 16:55
What has happened here please?

I finally take a (well earned) day off and - you lot bang in a huge priced (at time posted) winner? - Very well done Skip! LaughLaugh
By:
The Management
When: 27 Oct 20 17:18
Nice to hear from you again Brian - and to hear from you too Cupwinkcook. I do broadly agree with what you have both posted - EW filth has certainly become increasingly challenging, it's not as good as it used to be - prices are indeed much tighter and getting on is more difficult than ever.

But I actually started this thread as a response to some amicable p1ss taking (from somebody that I won't name here) to prove that it could STILL be done profitably and that is more profitable than backing short priced certs (i.e. the odds on favs that we are opposing with our EW bets). It is more difficult than it used to be. I haven't exactly set the world alight (yet!) myself on this thread (+ 6 points in about 6 weeksBlush on thread bets) - but it's been about as bad as it ever gets for me in those six weeks - and I have rejected (as thread bets) quite a few winners that I have actually backed and an absolute hatful of good priced winners that Skip and Jon have each put up.

It's still do-able (imo), It's still fun (I still enjoy it anyway) and it's good to hear from people that do or have done similar. All the best, don't be shy. GL.
By:
HendoLufc
When: 27 Oct 20 17:26
Thanks Skip great shout!
By:
skiptoomaloumacari
When: 28 Oct 20 06:42
A few more obvious races today......12-45 Nottingham Glide Down takes no picking ,debut form already boosted by winner running well in listed company, dam relished heavy ground , Bet366"S 100/30 looks tempting if you can get it ( i can"t!!!}....4-02 Fake is a match on paper , Martello Sky must go well , favs rider VERY inexperienced (never a good at this tricky track)....prices will guide me ....6-45 Kemp....today could be the day for Dyami.....Kirby booked so they mean business .....we will what happens as the day unfolds....
By:
Cupwinkcook
When: 28 Oct 20 09:30
2 possibles at Punchestown
2.25 Walking on glass 4/1
3.25 Longhouse Poet 11/4

Therealdeal probably still ahead of the handicapper in the 2.25, but 2nd fav could be a shot to nothing. Know nothing about the riders, lady amateurs, so info from anyone in the know a help

Latest Exhibition a worthy fav but aint too big apparently and anyone backing favs in beginners chases in Ireland won't make money in the long run
By:
jonmh.
When: 28 Oct 20 09:54
Morning .  I've taken 2/1 early doors Dyami. 13/8 now on BFSB.
By:
jonmh.
When: 28 Oct 20 09:59
2/1 with sky and hills.  About a short as I want to go.
By:
jonmh.
When: 28 Oct 20 12:05
I'm with you on Glide Down skip.  I've taken 11/4.
By:
The Management
When: 28 Oct 20 13:28
Morning all - I have also gone EW with Dyami in the 18:45 at Kempton at 2/1. I think that's my only Filthy EW bet for today.

I do like some of the other selections you guys have highlighted (12:45 Glide Down & 16:02 Martello Sky) but I don't think they are Filthy EW's in the true sense of the thread origin - and I'm not sure where I would draw the line in future if having Filthy EW Thread Bets in races like that. i.e. They are bets that I like too - but I don't think they are Filth!

Similar for your selections CupWin - I don't have any 100% definitive rules (never say never - because a winner is a winner - and a wrong price is a wrong price) but I very rarely play Filthy EW in Sellers, Claimers, Handicaps or Chases unless they really stand out to me for some reason. Those races at Punchestown do have a nice betting shape but if I was down to my last tenner, I wouldn't have it on a Handicap or a Chase Race.  GL all - a Yankee on the four I have declined as Filth is probably the order of the day!
By:
jonmh.
When: 28 Oct 20 14:11
Well Glide Down was a bit disappointing but as you say TM it wasn't traditional filth.

I'm no great fan of beginners chases but i'm going in very small on Run Wild Fred at 6/1 3.25 Punch.
By:
skiptoomaloumacari
When: 28 Oct 20 14:18
Yes it's very easy to get carried away with yourself when a few results go your way!!!!!
That certainly brought me back down to earth with a bump
By:
The Management
When: 28 Oct 20 14:35
To be fair Skip - you and Jon have both come up with some cracking selections and some very nice priced winners - and most of them fall under the "filthy" banner imo - I'm happy to talk about any kind of ew betting in any kind of race - I often do a few speculative EW selections in races that aren't dirty - if I just don't like the front end of the market or want to oppose something short for a specific reason.

So please (everybody and anybody) keep on posting selections whenever you want - in whatever races you like - it's always good to talk - but for Filthy EW Thread Bets (which is what I started the thread for) I'm gonna stick along the lines of proper filth - No hard and fast rules - but typically what looks like 2 or 3 horse races with a short priced fav (preferably with some doubts about it) and 8+ runners. There are, as we all know, other variations but the broad acid teat is - if only had a tenner left in the world - would I have a pound each way of it on this selection or maybe two quid on it place only. GL all - keep them coming.
By:
The Management
When: 28 Oct 20 14:38
^ I meant acid test - not acid teat Blush

Nearly made a right t1t of myself there!
By:
The Management
When: 28 Oct 20 20:02
Well, that went off plenty short enough in the end - Dyami (18:45 Kempton - returned at just 11/8 ISP) but 2/1 available pretty much everywhere until about lunchtime and plenty of 7/4+ EW on here for most of the day - so worth the wait.

Well done Jon. And well done Skip on the same - plus also on Martello Sky in the bumper - it did indeed turn out to be a match and you picked he right one.
By:
The Management
When: 28 Oct 20 20:53
Todays Filthy EW thread bet:

18:45 Kempton: Dyami - EW - 1st at 11/8 ISP (Backed EW at average of 3.00) = +2.40

Daily Thread Bet Total:  +2.40
Running Thread Bet Total: + 8.16


Skated home - so Oyster flag and Rays a glass fish punsters and filthy thieves!
By:
biffmeister
When: 28 Oct 20 22:35
Good  Evening fellow thieves!

I vaguely remember joining in on a previous thread here regarding the delights of each way thievery, but it seemed to peter away after a while.

I too enjoy this particular form of taking cash from those awful bookie chaps, and will be joining this fun thread again.
Reading all the previous pages I have come to the conclusion (rightly or wrongly?), that perhaps "The Management" is a tad too conservative or risk averse,  and perhaps some others a little cavalier in their bets.
Perhaps the best is to lie somewhere in between.

A couple of things I would like to input.

1. Multiple ew bets are the way to go for me. All that value just gets better with multiplied odds, particularly the ew Lucky 15 if you can get the concessions etc, the seemingly poor value of the win odds are negated by the double/treble odds if one winner, leaving plenty of value in the place element of the bet.

2. If you can get on with bet365, that's the place to go especially if you are worried about an 8 runner race  becoming 7 etc, as their cashout is often the same as your stake, or a bit less if your selection has drifted, so you can just cashout and forget about the bet. I appreciate this will not be available for all though.


So I look forward to communicating more with you all on this, as I believe it is the best oppor TUNA ties we have in defeating the old enemy. (got one in TM)

Tomorrow   3.06 Str,  1.15 Lin, 5.45 Sou and 7.30 Che look the likely races

Happy thieving!
By:
jonmh.
When: 29 Oct 20 11:53
Morning all.  I've had one small bet so far today.  Envious Editor 1.50 Clonmel.  I'm a bit wary as I can never catch the yard right but ill have a small pop at it.

7.30 Chelms is obvious but dead 8.
1.15 Ling i'll keep an eye on

3.15 Ling -  I was interested in Villeurbanne but it's no quite filth
5.45 sth  - i'll keep an eye on
2.36 strt - I was interested in Above Suspicion but again not quite filth
3.06 strt- - looks obvious on shape and numbers
3.50 Clonmel - I was interested in Andalusa but it would need to drift and it's another dead 8.

Lets see how things pan out.
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