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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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Morning all - been missing in action due to an unexpected errand.
I agree on all the most likely races - I'm behind, so gonna have to bet as I go today - but probably focussing on: 12:40 Down: Maybe a two-bet to half stakes. 12:50 Uttox: The Cob. 15:55 Weth: Maybe a two-bet to half stakes. Also vaguely/possibly interested in the 12:15 & 13:15 races - and (not filthy but interested in the 19:15 at Newc). GL all. |
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I;ve two bet the 12.40 and 3.55. Also backed the cob. I think i'll swerve this 1.15
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Sorry 12.15
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HI Jon -yeah - swerved it too.
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12:40 - I have now done an EW two-bet at 5/1 and 6/1 in the 12:40 Down.
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^^^ Half Stakes only!
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Done The Cobb (full stake EW) in the 12:50 - Market hates it though!
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Nice result TM. Hope the fav turns out to be ok.
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Celebrations tempered by the fate of Get In The Queue.
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You must have had a good news - bad news situation when you got back from the pub last night seeing the 19:30 result?
Result  Massive ISP   |
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Yep the result was great. The 3.75 was a kick in the nuts.
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sad news regarding fav.....
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Gone for Brave way ew 1.15 DR. Backed it on here 3.9. Small bet unsure of the form.
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I was happy with 3/1
 - I know the fav looked REALLY solid on form/ratings - but it had already had quite a few chances. Can't help thinking that the 2/9 ISP was partly because Oisin Murphy had already won three races. The way the market developed left me feeling a combination of scared and amazed. A strange one imo - but ended well. GL mateGone Half-Stake EW on this 13:15; Brave Way (3/1) |
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Winner was 190 BFSP! - still - not much downside for us.
Back for the 15:55 which I'm starting to think I might swerve. GL all. |
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I completely forgot to post Yesterday's Filthy EW thread bets for Thread P&L etc:
I managed to dodge altogether a couple of races that produced winners and pretty much screwed up every race I did play, either by adding unnecessary selections (Born to Sire) or taking prices at their lowest point but it was still a very good day in terms of results, despite my very best efforts to wreck it!13:50 Clon: Envious Editor - EW - Half Steaks - 3rd at 5/2 ISP (Backed EW at average of 5/2) = -0.25 14:36 Strat: Above Suspicion - EW - 3rd at 9/4 ISP (Backed at 9/4 to win and 2/5 to place) = -0.61 15:06 Strat: When You're Ready - EW - 1st at 2/1 ISP (Backed EW at average of 5/2) = +3.00 19:30 Chelm: At Ease - EW - 1st at 5/1 ISP (Backed EW at average of just above 3/1) = + +3.60 19:30 Chelm: Born To Sire - EW - Half Steaks - 6th at 12/ ISP (Backed at average of 10/1) = -1.00 I think the above are the selections and prices that I selected/confirmed pre-race as thread bets. I'm happy to report that as markets moved - most of my average prices were quite a bit better (especially on At Ease!) - but in order to keep the thread honest, I think I have only reported on selections, stakes and prices that I posted on the thread before the races. If anyone thinks different let me know - it was a truly hectic day and I may have lost the plot at a couple of points! Daily Thread Bet Total: + 4.74 Running Thread Bet Total: + 12:90 |
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Well done with Gumball Jon! - couldn't quite bring myself to do it as a thread bet (combination of not quite dirty enough, a few others with a possible shout and I don't really like Beginners Chases). Nice one for you though - fairly straightforward.
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I'm going to play just one-third stakes in the 15:55 at Wetherby!
Market says the fav can't lose (although that is my favourite kind of market  ) and there seems to be rule that everything that has run in the Cheltenham Bumper has to win its subsequent races! I've had a good day and would prefer to stop (bar the 19:15 later) - but it would seem rude not to have a bet on the maths alone - so one-third stakes EW on both Heart Of A Lion (currently 15/2 ish EW market here) and Buzz De Turcoing (9 or 10/1 ish EW market here). GL all - but it has the "feel" to me of a race where the fav and two rags might fill the frame. |
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a bit lucky there
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Yeah - but it goes both ways Skip and it evens (especially National Hunt) - take it gladly when it goes our way.....
............ and moan like hell when it doesn't  |
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Todays Filthy EW thread bets summary:
12:40 Down: Legacy Thor - EW - Half Steaks - 3rd at 9/2 ISP (Backed EW at average of 5/1) = 0.00 12:40 Down: Pats Pick - EW - Half Steaks - 2nd at 13/2 ISP (Backed EW at average of 6/1) = + 0.10 12:50 Uttox:The Cob - EW - Full Steak - 1st at 4/1 ISP and BFSP of 9.20! (Backed EW at average of 4/1) = + 4.80 13:15 Down: Brave Way - EW - Half Steaks - 3rd at 11/4 ISP (Backed EW at average of 3/1) = - 0.20 15:55 Weth: Heart Of A Lion - EW - Third Steaks - 8th at 6/1 ISP (Backed EW at average of 15/2) = - 0.67 15:55 Weth: Buzz De Turcoing - EW - Third Steaks - 3rd at 13/2 ISP (Backed EW at average of 9/1) = + 0.27 Daily Thread Bet Total: + 4.30 Running Thread Bet Total: + 17.20 19:15 Newcastle still looks like an EW play of some kind for me - but it won't be a Filthy Each Way Thread Bet. Well played filthsters and GL! |
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Cheers TM.. I imagine the 7.15 revolves around Model Guest?
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Cheers TM.. I imagine the 7.15 revolves around Model Guest?
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Cheers TM.. I imagine the 7.15 revolves around Model Guest?
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Yes Jon - I do love Model Guest and would love her to win one but she seems like one of those horses that runs just a tiny bit worse than whatever you put her up against - be it fairly decent horses or moderate ones - so if she keeps shortening - opposing her with something EW seems the way to go imo.
Trouble is (although I think the drop to 7f is a very big plus), the most obvious alternative, Turaath, has a disappointing profile herself and might even be a dodge-pot (headgear candidate imo). The Gosden horse is FTO (could be anything and one of only a handful of trainers I will do FTO) and the next three in the betting - Dafinah, Tefnut and even Luckyangel (at a huge price) could all potentially improve drastically. Not really committed to anything yet but the Hills/Buick one looks the most obvious or a small EW. Won't go mad either way because it would actually please me if Model Guest were to win! |
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GL TM. I'm off for a beer while I still can. Tier 3 looms large in this Parish.
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It's not Filth Jon - and for all the reasons above ^^ it's probably best left alone.
My record on this thread when going "off piste" isn't great! - to be honest it's not all that great when I stay on piste! I just have a bit of an obsession with Model Guest and a few other maiden fillies with similar profiles. |
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Enjoy Jon - catch up tomorrow.
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Poor old Model Guest - I felt a bit sorry for her tonight (missed the break and unplaced at 2/1 fav) - Not a filthy race - but the Hills/Buick horse (Turaath) won quite easily at 3/1, so that was nice!
Tomorrows likely looking filthy EW shortlist (imo) - 13:00 Wetherby - possibly - definitely worth a check 13:15 Down Royal - possibly - definitely worth a check 16:10 Down Royal - unlikely - but worth a check 20:00 Wolves: Almost Certainly 20:30 Wolves; Highly likely |
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Looks like i will have to go out on serious collection day today tomorrow ,monday .......All betting shops will be shut from next week.........
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had to have a go at URBAN VIOLET.............most go well........
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Have a good one Skip!
Looking in more depth today - I have now gone off the Down Royal races at 13:15 and 16:10 - both have a nice shape with odds-on favs - but I don't have an angle or a strong view about what to take them on with and would struggle to commit to two ew selections, let alone one ew selection to oppose the favs with - I expect I will swerve both those races. Still interested in: 13:00 Wetherby: Brief Ambition - but would want a bit bigger than current price. 14:32 Ascot: Fearless & Addis Ababa - possible two-bet - but maybe half-stakes as a lot of potential "lurkers" imo 20:00 Wolves: Galahad Threepwood 20:30 Wolves: Marietty GL filthsters! |
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A cracking start to your day Skip - well done!
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Afternoon chaps. Well done on Urban Violet skip.
I've backed both the filthy ones at Wolves so far. That could be all I do today but we shall see. GL |
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Looking similar here too Jon.
Swerved the 13:00 Wetherby - price too short (in context of the race). |
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Happy with that - gave the fav a scare (albeit only very briefly) and went 1.05 in the Plaice market (in-running) - but overall a satisfactory swerve.
Swerved the 13:15 at Down Royal now - but it is a very intriguing (betting) race - will watch only. |
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I have been dripping into the 14:32 Ascot market (EW market on here) and have now done a half-stakes EW two-bet on:
Fearless - average price of 5.15 Addis Ababa - average price 7.00 - drifting horribly & suspiciously (to unusually large money in a usually p1ss poor market for early liquidity )Sorry for after-timing my prices (although at least one of them will likely go off bigger anyway!) - but I am always going to prioritise my own P&L. |
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RIP Addis Ababa
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Swerved doing anything EW against Sir Gerhard in the 16:00 Down Royal - but I have laid Sir Gerhard (at 1.36) in the win market as an alternative. Counting it as a thread bet - equivalent to a win back of the rest of the field at 11/4. GL filthsters.
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Sorry ^^ 16:10 race at Down Royal - not 16:00!
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