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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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Replies: 1,823
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Well done TM. Nothing for me today.
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Cheers Jon
I was tempted by a few races (14:25, 15:38, 16:16 and to a lesser extent 15:00) but will also pass today. |
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Pleased to have swerved the 15:00 (impossible to feel certain about a plaicer) and the 15:38 was reduced to just 4 runners anyway.
The 14:25 would have yielded a (3rd) place only - and then rather annoyingly the 16:16 did produce a 3/1 winner which traded at 6/1+ on here for plenty in the win market. But I'm going to continue avoiding the ones that look too speculative (imo) - I feel I have missed out on a lot of winners recently in doing so - but sooner or later the expensive unplaced selections will cancel those winners out if betting ew against every short-priced favourite. Tomorrow currently looks potentially more interesting - 14:30 Ponte, 16:35 Killarney and 20:30 at Wolves amongst the possibilities. GL. |
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Interesting day.
2.30 P 8.30 w 2.05 K (maybe doesn't quite fit but i'm on Crassus) 2.35K 4.35 K |
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Morning Jon - I'm in agreement with you that those are the races to focus on - thoughts so far:
14:05 Kill: I like Crassus and the 1st and 3rd from his first outing (Duffle Coat and Scholastic) have both franked the form. As you say it might not be each-wayable (could even go off favourite imo) so maybe not a (filthy) ew bet for the thread but worth watching for sure. 14:30 Pont: Sky Power looks like a play in most respects but at time of writing I have missed the boat on the price (was 3/1+) - worth monitoring the market imo. 14:35 Kill: Class Bishop Lady looks solid (on the betting structure), slightly uneasy at backing anything (ew) that is first time over obstacles but I think I probably will! - going to watch the market for a bit though. 16:35 Kill: The NR's have spoiled this race from an ew perspective unless betting ew on here (still 3 places). Raya Time looks the only possible ew bet if price on here allows (which is doubtful imo). Might be more tempted by Espion Du Chenet or Walkabout as speculative rags in the plaice only market (3 plaices). Will monitor market. 20:30 Wolves: Rayyan - Not keen on FTO or horses that have been gelded before ever racing but (as per the betting) apart from the Fav, it's a very grim looking field! Will monitor market but kind of hope Rayyan goes/stays too short for an ew bet! GL. |
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The NR (Crassus) in the 14:05 Killarney has actually given the race/betting shape more of the appearance of a Filthy Each Way race
- but if I only had one EW bet left in the world, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't commit it to either At War (will the hood help?) or Varna Gold (maybe flattered when just like At War, he also finished 11 lengths behind Longclaw?) - infact if there was any more depth to the race whatsoever they would both look more like Plaice lays to me  - but the rest of the field are all FTO and/or a mystery - so no thread bet here. |
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I have now backed Sky Power EW in the Each Way market on here at an average of 3/1 (4.00) - sorry for after-timing the price (now gone) but I made it fairly clear in my 11:07 post that I would be happy with 3/1. GL.
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lol - the 14:05 market certainly told a story about the GE trained fav!
- so I've managed to dodge yet another winner but in fairness would have to have backed both of them EW (as couldn't really split them) and I would NEVER back 2 each way in an Irish Race let alone a poor race like that. Nothing won - but no loss either. |
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I'm going to swerve the 14:35 Killarney too.
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14:30 Pont: Sky Power - felt fortunate to get 3rd the way it ran - but that is the nature of the Filthy Each Way bet.
14:35 Kill: Obviously pleased to have swerved the unplaced Class Bishop Lady and disappointed to have missed the winner @ 7/2 but again I would NEVER back 2 x EW in a race like that either. Looks like the 16:35 Killarney is no good and the 20:30 Wolves is looking doubtful. - 0.40 for the day at the moment! |
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I have to go out now - so I'm going to swerve the 20:30 at Wolves as I can't bring myself to back a FTO selection each way at 7/4.
Daily total: -0.40 Thread running total: -0.32 |
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deffo no bet today.........racing a load of codswallop......
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Hi Skip - late on parade due to some Forum access problems -
I was looking forward to today (from glancing at my calendar) - Four Uk meetings and all on the flat (yippee!), no jumpers and no Irish - but what a disappointment. The only thing Filthy about today is the weather! GL |
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A couple of "tempters" at a stretch - but nothing that I would call definitively filthy, so no ew selections for me today. GL
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Agree TM.. I've backed Alarm Call 2.05 Nav early but it's not filth. I like the shape of the 4.35 at sedgefield but it's a handicap so again doesn't qualify. I'll probably play to small stakes.
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Well done with Alarm Call Jon!
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Who What When seems fulfil all the criteria in the 3-00 Exeter ........should be clear favourite imo......
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i"m also tempted to take the bait with Northern Poet 2-00 Exeter and Do Your Job 1-15 ffos Las.........
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Agree with Who What When but i've missed the price at the moment and i'd need to see a bit of a drift.
Nothern Poet also fits the bill for me and I like the shape of the 6.30 at Chelmsford but i'm not overly keen on either the second or third in. I'll probably back Shaykhoon 4.40 South and Sacred Rhyne 2.15 Thurles but neither fit the bill as classic filth. |
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Hi guys - late on parade due to some unexpected chores!
I too have missed the boat/price on the 15:00 Exeter. I would like to play in the 18:30 Chelmsford because the competition for the plaices looks really thin/weak/limited but I agree it's quite difficult to make a strong (win) case for the 2nd or 3rd favs as they look pretty exposed/moderate. Plus it's difficult to split them and would be a bit reluctant to do both ew based on their win chances (imo). Will wait for now. I'm just left (at the moment) with the 14:00 Exeter (Northern Poet) which I will play EW. At time of writing I think 11/4 (books) is a bit skinny (I can't get BOG) and already at time of writing it's above 3/1+ on the BF each way market. Will probably play EW at an (anticipated) slightly bigger price. |
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I'm starting to get slightly interested in Misstree Song now in the 3.00.
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Well done Skip! (13:15 Do Your Job)
Northern Poet (14:00) is drifting like a Hippie on his Gap Year - 7/2 (4.5) available for pennies. |
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Nothing to do with the thread - but had a speculative win & place on Chinese Spirit (13:40) and plaice layed Flying Moon. GL
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^^ proper grim! - will keep my handicap thoughts (outside of the filth) to myself in future. Hopefully posted far to late anyway!
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On Northern Poet EW at average of 4.39
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Northern Poet ran a strange race with even a place looking most unlikely at one stage - would have been gutted if the EL horse Runswick Bay -
(Matched at 1.01 had held on!) - got to be happy with a place for Northern Poet under the circumstances. Very Well Done with Sacred Rhyme (14:15) Jon - lovely price/SP imo |
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Cheers TM. Agree on N Poet. I'd have happily settled for a place four out.
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I have now bet Mistree Song (15:00) ew at average of about 3.15
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Sorry Jon - by posting it as a thread bet I think I handed the initiative to Skips selection! - but would have taken 2/1+ EW on either in a race that looked a coin-flip!
 WD Skip! |
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Yep I had exactly the same thoughts TM. I tried to go for my minimum price (7/4) on the winner this morning but it had gone. Once I saw the 2/1 for Mistree Song I jumped in on that but not much harm done.
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Despite everything I wrote earlier - I have now done them both EW in this 18:30
 Baba Reza at 10/3 and Rommel at 11/4 |
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Well done TM. I had peanuts on them but a good day nevertheless.
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Cheers Jon - finally a winner - I was feeling a bit cursed in that everything I put up as a bet (on the thread) runs place only, so I go into (probably overly) cautious mode (on the thread) and miss a hatful of winners that I have actually bet or would normally bet but have rejected for the thread! I need to strike a better balance with the slightly more speculative ones (imo) which I have (since getting off to such a grim start) been persistently rejecting as thread bets.
Will update thread bets P&L later - apparently I should have cooked dinner! |
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Still looking at today - there are quite a few races but mostly on betting shape alone, so I don't have a really strong fancy for many of them.
Yesterdays Filthy Each Way Thread bets: 14:00 Northern Poet 3rd 3/1 (4.39 average price taken) = -0.33 15:00 Mistree Song 2nd 2/1 (3.10 average price taken) = -0.60 18:30 Baba Reza 1st 3/1 (4.33 average price taken) = +4.00 18:30 Rommel 2nd 11/4 (3.75 average price taken) = - 0.45 Daily Total: + 2.62 Thread Running Total: + 2.30 |
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3.50 Chep. I've backed At Large early on but the price is going. Small stakes as FTO.
4.25 Chep I think i'll just keep an eye on his for now. 1.45 DP same as above Aso backed Orgetorix 4.20 York early on but not filth. |
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Also going to keep an eye on the 5.40 at Kempton
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GL Jon - I will be in and out today (unpaid chauffeur!) - I will probably just keep an eye on a few markets and only bet based on the prices available when the markets get "busier". Out for now. Cheers.
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The only bet for me is BEBRAVEFORGLORY 4-25 Chepstow, always worth having a bet Jonjo has the odds on fav.....
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That should Bravemansgame...... Sorry for any confusion....
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I'm on it Skip for small stakes. Still licking my wounds from At Large.
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