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RyanWe
11 Feb 16 23:12
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Date Joined: 13 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 32,739 | Blogger: RyanWe's blog
Friday

Always On The Run - 2.05 at Kempton - 6/1 with a few books, 7.2 on betfair

Missed the party a bit here, too busy crying over more odds on in running losers, but the show must goes on. Someone else pointed this horse out to me (TheSecret), absolutely loved this horse's first run for Tom George on New Year's Eve. It was his first run over fences, crazy fresh, too keen, but jumped like a bunny. I really think this horse is going to be a lot better over fences, and although he's bred to stay 3 miles, I do think dropping to 16f is the right thing to do if you're not going to put him in a hood. He ran such a nice race at Warwick, and it doesn't look like much was expected, because he was sent off at 12/1 - whether that was because of fitness, or doubts about the ground, I'm not sure, but he'll be getting some better ground tomorrow, and these other trainers have all been doing so well with these ex McCain horses, that I wouldn't expect this to be any different.

Hopefully.. Just blast him from the front, catch me if you can, a bit like when they had Stellar Notion, Nacarat etc etc they love their front runners at Kempton.

Saturday

Modus in the Betfair hurdle - Currently 11.0 on betfair

He's only top price 7/1 with the books at the moment, sure to drift out with them if he stays at this price, but this whole reaction of Bazza picking that Mullins horse is way over the top.

Where do I start with Modus?

2nd in the Champion bumper last season, had Yanworth behind him in 4th, and the rest. A fine 3rd in the Punchestown bumper too.

Both of these runs were achieved with a pretty average trainer in Robert Stephens, sorry Stevo.

JP buys him, whacks him with Nicholls. Wins easily on his first two starts, but throws a bad one in when last seen on heavy ground. Not that it was terrible, but it was still disappointing. It wouldn't come as a surprise to hear that the stable strike rate was 10% in December, something rarely seen for the champion trainer.

The stable are flying again now though, 33%. Even the horses losing are running crackers.

He's got a mark of 139, which looks lenient to me. He beat Charmix off levels pretty cosily, and I know that horse has improved for stepping up in trip but the handicapper thinks he's 145 rated. Charmix beat Emerging Force by 38 lengths, and we saw him win a handicap off 129 today. I know Emerging Force might of ran below par that day, and he probably improved for the step up in trip too today, but there is just so many horses that Modus has beat that make him look a horse who could turn out to be top class.

I suppose there is question marks over the horse on heavy ground, we don't know if that's what we are going to get yet. A dry day tomorrow, and it might chuck it down on Saturday, but at least it will be sloppy ground, not tacky.

I think the horse is miles better than his mark of 139. I know other horses are probably chucked in too, but I feel like there is a lot more to come.

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Replies: 18,912
By:
RyanWe
When: 11 Feb 16 23:12
Feel free to guess away.

ATB.
By:
vidou
When: 12 Feb 16 08:22
Nice write-ups Ryan - good luck with them ...
By:
intheknow
When: 12 Feb 16 08:31
I would describe Robert Stephens as an underrated trainer not a pretty average one
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 08:41
It was just a throwaway comment, I saw his strike rate on the flat averaged 5%. Only 8% with his hurdlers this year.

I didn't think it was above average, but no offence intended.
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 08:42
But if you think him and Nicholls are closer matched, then I respect that.
By:
intheknow
When: 12 Feb 16 09:43
I'm not saying he is anywhere near Nicholls standard but if you give him the right ammunition then he can fire the bullets
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 09:54
The only point I was trying to make, was that I thought Nicholls could achieve more with the horse.

I don't follow Stephens' yard that closely, I have nothing against him, and I think it was a shame that he lost the horse, as JP normally keeps them with the same trainer.

So I hope he receives some better luck in the future.
By:
intheknow
When: 12 Feb 16 10:08
Most top trainers achieve more with the majority of horses they are sent, that's why they are the top trainers

I always read your write-ups but no need to be too flippant with off the cuff comments to spoil things

Fingers crossed for your two
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 11:48
All I said was he was pretty average, now you are going over the top.
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 11:49
That is my opinion, I'm not apologising for that.
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 11:52
Although if you were the trainer himself, then I'm sorry, it's not personal, just looking at the bare bone facts.

Enjoy.
By:
Mavis "Hacksaw" Handbag
When: 12 Feb 16 14:10
Great write up - went exactly as you suggested.  You got a good price as well. Kudos!
By:
vidou
When: 12 Feb 16 14:11
Lived up to both its name and your write-up Ryan- nice one ...
By:
pumphol.
When: 12 Feb 16 14:18
Always a pleasure to see a decent write up, VWD Happy
By:
ashleigh
When: 12 Feb 16 14:24
well done ryan.
By:
madhatters
When: 12 Feb 16 14:55
Nice write up Ryan
Nice price Grin
By:
jon b
When: 12 Feb 16 17:13
R Stephens might have a winner tomorrow , got one in the last at Lingers , 4 horse race lol , only 3 to get past Whoops
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 18:13
Cheers me homies, the race sort of collapsed, but he did jump well, and that's the name of the game.

Got another one for tomorrow, in the 4.35 at Warwick - Rude And Crude, top price 14/1

So.. I originally had my eye on FATCATINTHEHAT, he's had a breathing op, looks well weighted if it gets him back to his best, but his price is just really disappointing, the bookies haven't missed a beat, and he's definitely vulnerable going left handed given his inclination to jump to his right. I'll have a saver or something.

I played Rude And Crude last time out, and I'm playing again tomorrow. He ran a nice race for a long way, a reproduction probably wouldn't be good enough tomorrow, but the big angle is the stable form. Between October and January, the Chris Gordon stable only managed 5 winners from 83 efforts. Yet in February alone they've had 3 winners from 13 efforts, with the 2nd and 3rd in a handicap at Kempton today too.

He's a top price 14/1 tomorrow, expect him to be single figures to be honest, he had some really nice novice hurdle form last year.
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 18:13
^^4.25
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 18:14
Price just went as typing damnit, 14/1 sportsbook still, which is a bit of a laugh, 11/1 general, 12/1 BB.
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Feb 16 18:43
Had a pretty large bet for me on ONE OF US in that Newbury bumper at 16.45 tomorrow

Green as grass at Cheltenham but still would have won that race with another furlong to go.  Will be more streetwise today.  Trainer thinks the world of it and it gets all the allowances and carries just 10st 7lb.   Pity there are not 8 runners but happy to go win only at 6/1 early prices tonight.

I see the NTD horse as the danger.
By:
pumphol.
When: 12 Feb 16 18:55
Saturday

Let Me In -  8.45 Wolverhampton 33/1

Three wins & no places from 14 career runs which is a bit off putting for ew bets  possibly, so even though a big price a back to lay bet may be the way to go, horse had a near two year break  so was always going to be rusty on its comeback & not too shabby beaten nine lengths here, last of eight next time but that was over a mile & a half & only weakened close home beaten five lengths, only dropped a couple of pounds for those two efforts but with the claim runs off 55 & its last win over the C & D  was of a mark of 58, withdrawn from a race last week , downside  is its never troubled the judges for this trainer but I’ve  just seen enough in its two comeback runs to offer some hope & worth a punt at this price.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 12 Feb 16 19:03
Well done again, Ryan. Cool

I'll have a dabble on yours at that price, Pumps.
By:
pumphol.
When: 12 Feb 16 19:24
Good luck Kenbo Silly
By:
puntersmate.net
When: 12 Feb 16 19:34
Good luck pumphol Happy
Got some of the 33's before it disappeared.
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Feb 16 19:36
Like pimphol, out of the ball park
By:
pumphol.
When: 12 Feb 16 19:54
Cheers Puntersmate

Not sure if that's good or bad Swardean Confused
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Feb 16 19:56
Sorry, terrible grammar, wine kicking in...

meant to say, like your style, hit one out of the ball park
By:
pumphol.
When: 12 Feb 16 19:58
I was hoping it was that, cheers Wink
By:
RyanWe
When: 12 Feb 16 21:15
Loving the extra selections, good luck everybody.
By:
Cork Langer
When: 12 Feb 16 23:37
Be very interested to see how Cheltenian goes tomorrow under topweight in the Betfair, RJ appeared to look after him last time and then got caught hopping when the pace quickened, TOB should have an easier time of hiding him tomorrow and the flatter course with the long straight finish should give him ample time to deliver him with his run, plenty of 40's available, will do for my play
By:
pedro39
When: 13 Feb 16 05:55
Saint John Henry 3.15 Warwick 

Drop in class and eased a couple pounds this one should be able to last the distance,has 1st time blinkers and jockey takes off an additional 3lb, I would like to think that would aid  the cause.
Goes well in the mud as he showed on previous wins and after a blunder at Ffos Las last run,stayed on near the end.

I am going all in on this beast,£1 on the nose
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Feb 16 09:12
Good stuff Ryanwe, can you tell me where you get the info for a horse having a breathing op as I didn't know that about Fatcatinthehat. cheers
By:
RyanWe
When: 13 Feb 16 09:31
FATCATINTHEHAT is being aimed at a 2 mile Handicap Hurdle on Monday. He went well on debut for a long way at Haydock, but got very tired on the run in. Gavin felt it was his breathing that stopped him, so he has had a wind op and is now ready to go again. He has been dropped to a mark of 119 and now switched to Kempton which should really suit him on the testing ground. If he can take a step in the right direction Fatcat should be right in the mix here.

It's on his blog. I think it's the 3rd from the latest entry.

That was taken from before he was due to run at Kempton, but if I remember correctly, the reason he was pulled was because he had heat in his leg.

Put it up on one of these threads, just annoying how it was 10/1 last time, just marked the books card, and they took no chances this time.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 13 Feb 16 20:49
Great place, Plumps. I thought for one moment.......
By:
s.kenbo
When: 13 Feb 16 20:49
Pumps. Blush
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Feb 16 20:51
wd pumphol, thought it was going to hold on turning in.
By:
REDROB
When: 13 Feb 16 20:53
Cheers pump, backed at 40, laid at 2 for nice green and kept the place at 7.6
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 13 Feb 16 21:08
Ive got one Guess for the Finale if interested

FILAMENT OF GOLD - Dropped another 3lbs from last handicap mark in which he was asked to run over 12F a trip to far for him, Add to that the change to the claimer riding well at the moment (Forget the black Minstrel ride where it was like he was instructed to get racing far too early), then you've another 5lbs off his back to run well tonight. C & D Winner and that 6L in which they finished in a heap behind Supersta isn't looking too  bad form, 33/1 is looking big given how well handicapped he is and better is expected tonight as this is the poorest race he has contested in quite a while. 33/1 e/w in the lucky last 9.15 Wiolverhampton
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