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Friday
Always On The Run - 2.05 at Kempton - 6/1 with a few books, 7.2 on betfair
Missed the party a bit here, too busy crying over more odds on in running losers, but the show must goes on. Someone else pointed this horse out to me (TheSecret), absolutely loved this horse's first run for Tom George on New Year's Eve. It was his first run over fences, crazy fresh, too keen, but jumped like a bunny. I really think this horse is going to be a lot better over fences, and although he's bred to stay 3 miles, I do think dropping to 16f is the right thing to do if you're not going to put him in a hood. He ran such a nice race at Warwick, and it doesn't look like much was expected, because he was sent off at 12/1 - whether that was because of fitness, or doubts about the ground, I'm not sure, but he'll be getting some better ground tomorrow, and these other trainers have all been doing so well with these ex McCain horses, that I wouldn't expect this to be any different.
Hopefully.. Just blast him from the front, catch me if you can, a bit like when they had Stellar Notion, Nacarat etc etc they love their front runners at Kempton.
Saturday
Modus in the Betfair hurdle - Currently 11.0 on betfair
He's only top price 7/1 with the books at the moment, sure to drift out with them if he stays at this price, but this whole reaction of Bazza picking that Mullins horse is way over the top.
Where do I start with Modus?
2nd in the Champion bumper last season, had Yanworth behind him in 4th, and the rest. A fine 3rd in the Punchestown bumper too.
Both of these runs were achieved with a pretty average trainer in Robert Stephens, sorry Stevo.
JP buys him, whacks him with Nicholls. Wins easily on his first two starts, but throws a bad one in when last seen on heavy ground. Not that it was terrible, but it was still disappointing. It wouldn't come as a surprise to hear that the stable strike rate was 10% in December, something rarely seen for the champion trainer.
The stable are flying again now though, 33%. Even the horses losing are running crackers.
He's got a mark of 139, which looks lenient to me. He beat Charmix off levels pretty cosily, and I know that horse has improved for stepping up in trip but the handicapper thinks he's 145 rated. Charmix beat Emerging Force by 38 lengths, and we saw him win a handicap off 129 today. I know Emerging Force might of ran below par that day, and he probably improved for the step up in trip too today, but there is just so many horses that Modus has beat that make him look a horse who could turn out to be top class.
I suppose there is question marks over the horse on heavy ground, we don't know if that's what we are going to get yet. A dry day tomorrow, and it might chuck it down on Saturday, but at least it will be sloppy ground, not tacky.
I think the horse is miles better than his mark of 139. I know other horses are probably chucked in too, but I feel like there is a lot more to come.
Always On The Run - 2.05 at Kempton - 6/1 with a few books, 7.2 on betfair
Missed the party a bit here, too busy crying over more odds on in running losers, but the show must goes on. Someone else pointed this horse out to me (TheSecret), absolutely loved this horse's first run for Tom George on New Year's Eve. It was his first run over fences, crazy fresh, too keen, but jumped like a bunny. I really think this horse is going to be a lot better over fences, and although he's bred to stay 3 miles, I do think dropping to 16f is the right thing to do if you're not going to put him in a hood. He ran such a nice race at Warwick, and it doesn't look like much was expected, because he was sent off at 12/1 - whether that was because of fitness, or doubts about the ground, I'm not sure, but he'll be getting some better ground tomorrow, and these other trainers have all been doing so well with these ex McCain horses, that I wouldn't expect this to be any different.
Hopefully.. Just blast him from the front, catch me if you can, a bit like when they had Stellar Notion, Nacarat etc etc they love their front runners at Kempton.
Saturday
Modus in the Betfair hurdle - Currently 11.0 on betfair
He's only top price 7/1 with the books at the moment, sure to drift out with them if he stays at this price, but this whole reaction of Bazza picking that Mullins horse is way over the top.
Where do I start with Modus?
2nd in the Champion bumper last season, had Yanworth behind him in 4th, and the rest. A fine 3rd in the Punchestown bumper too.
Both of these runs were achieved with a pretty average trainer in Robert Stephens, sorry Stevo.
JP buys him, whacks him with Nicholls. Wins easily on his first two starts, but throws a bad one in when last seen on heavy ground. Not that it was terrible, but it was still disappointing. It wouldn't come as a surprise to hear that the stable strike rate was 10% in December, something rarely seen for the champion trainer.
The stable are flying again now though, 33%. Even the horses losing are running crackers.
He's got a mark of 139, which looks lenient to me. He beat Charmix off levels pretty cosily, and I know that horse has improved for stepping up in trip but the handicapper thinks he's 145 rated. Charmix beat Emerging Force by 38 lengths, and we saw him win a handicap off 129 today. I know Emerging Force might of ran below par that day, and he probably improved for the step up in trip too today, but there is just so many horses that Modus has beat that make him look a horse who could turn out to be top class.
I suppose there is question marks over the horse on heavy ground, we don't know if that's what we are going to get yet. A dry day tomorrow, and it might chuck it down on Saturday, but at least it will be sloppy ground, not tacky.
I think the horse is miles better than his mark of 139. I know other horses are probably chucked in too, but I feel like there is a lot more to come.
Show More
I have dutched two in the Toxxy 2.53 as I am slightly obsessed with getting the favourite beat in here, as these are two potentially very well in horses.
Shanty Alley 6/1
This horse has been pretty luckless, looked unlucky not to win at Wetherby back in December when a horse fell in front of him at the last, and then fell 3 out when leading by a good 8 lengths at Southwell when last seen too.
But because of how far out it was, the handicapper hasn’t put him up, but I think he was certain to win by at least 10 lengths.
Carver even takes off a handy 5lb here too. He ran well over hurdles here before, and the stable are in great form too.
It will take a good one to beat him.
Gars Bar Dine 15/2+
This looked a great switcher from Russell to Skeletor, but they ran him over a very sharp 19f on the stable debut on good ground and he disappointed somewhat, but he was lame, and he looked a 24f horse on his previous runs.
He's dropped down another 4lb, and now we see him at what looks the right distance of 24f on ground with cut too. If he had never had that first disappointing run, he woud be close to favourite here, so he's well worth another shot.
Shanty Alley 6/1
This horse has been pretty luckless, looked unlucky not to win at Wetherby back in December when a horse fell in front of him at the last, and then fell 3 out when leading by a good 8 lengths at Southwell when last seen too.
But because of how far out it was, the handicapper hasn’t put him up, but I think he was certain to win by at least 10 lengths.
Carver even takes off a handy 5lb here too. He ran well over hurdles here before, and the stable are in great form too.
It will take a good one to beat him.
Gars Bar Dine 15/2+
This looked a great switcher from Russell to Skeletor, but they ran him over a very sharp 19f on the stable debut on good ground and he disappointed somewhat, but he was lame, and he looked a 24f horse on his previous runs.
He's dropped down another 4lb, and now we see him at what looks the right distance of 24f on ground with cut too. If he had never had that first disappointing run, he woud be close to favourite here, so he's well worth another shot.
I have one, we just need to remove the people that remind me after they win 
Oct 15, 2020 -- 5:22PM, RyanWe wrote:
I have one, we just need to remove the people that remind me after they win
Well done again Ryan 
small ew Hahadi at a nice price. Bigger EW Leostar wasnt sure he'd stay up the hill, seemed to be going well and dropped back before coming up the hill with a wet sail
. Looked at Dollar and couldn't fancy it today 
small ew Hahadi at a nice price. Bigger EW Leostar wasnt sure he'd stay up the hill, seemed to be going well and dropped back before coming up the hill with a wet sail
. Looked at Dollar and couldn't fancy it today
Oct 14, 2020 -- 10:22PM, PHS wrote:
Assimilation (19:30 Chelm) seems a big price at 12/1 (already backed in from 16/1) for a prolific AW horse (203 day absence LTO when last). Walker had a winner in the last at Kem tonight.Love Dreams was only beaten a hd by subsequent winner Variyann on last run here and the drop to 7f looks positive.Both just happen to have the assistance of James Doyle.Small ew Double pays 168/1
Dreams a nr, leaving me with a very useful 12/1 ew at 1/5th odds .
Oct 15, 2020 -- 5:22PM, RyanWe wrote:
I have one, we just need to remove the people that remind me after they win
Thu Results
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike | Pos | Odds |
| Wolflet | 19:00 | Chelmsford City | Gosden, J H M | Williams, S C | ||||
| Saharan Shimmer | 19:00 | Chelmsford City | Menuisier, David | Keightley, S L | ||||
| Fame N Fortune | 17:25 | Lingfield | Tuite, Joseph | Baker, George | 1 | 10/1 | ||
| Dark Side Prince | 18:15 | Southwell | Wallis, Charlie | Macey, Jessica | ||||
| Stoneford | 12:20 | Carlisle | Coyle, Tony | Ender, Miss S J | 5% | 4% | ||
| Gortroe Joe | 12:20 | Carlisle | Skelton, Daniel | OBrien, Fergal | 17% | 17% | ||
| Ringo Kid | 15:01 | Carlisle | Byrne, Mrs Olivia | Ewart, J P L | #N/A | 16% | ||
| Antidote | 14:10 | Wincanton | Hughes, Richard | Frost, J D | 0% | 7% | ||
| Dave And Bernie | 15:20 | Wincanton | Barry, Michael | Signy, Oliver | #N/A | 33% | nr | |
| River Of Intrigue | 17:35 | Wincanton | Oshea, J G M | Potter, R D | 8% | #N/A |
Firstly a well done to ryan on yet another winning selection and thanks to kiw and phs for their kind words in respect of my mere place.
Still looking for that next winner and I have had an interest on Saturday in the Balmoral H'cap 16.15 at Ascot on Hortzadar 28/1, O'Meara likes a tilt at such races and has engaged Jamie Spencer to partner this runner as I presume Tudhope opted for Orbaan the other O'Meara representative.
My reason for playing is that the horse has been in decent form, even its 9th last time out wasn't a bad run, it was only beaten 6 lengths, now drawn in eleven I am pinning my hopes on Spencer settling it last which should be a given knowing his modus operandi on the straight track at Ascot, he should then have the option to go wherever the better pace is and bring his mount through fast and late to collect!
In theory it all seems straightforward, fingers crossed Mr Spencer reads the forum and rides the race as above...!gl
Still looking for that next winner and I have had an interest on Saturday in the Balmoral H'cap 16.15 at Ascot on Hortzadar 28/1, O'Meara likes a tilt at such races and has engaged Jamie Spencer to partner this runner as I presume Tudhope opted for Orbaan the other O'Meara representative.
My reason for playing is that the horse has been in decent form, even its 9th last time out wasn't a bad run, it was only beaten 6 lengths, now drawn in eleven I am pinning my hopes on Spencer settling it last which should be a given knowing his modus operandi on the straight track at Ascot, he should then have the option to go wherever the better pace is and bring his mount through fast and late to collect!
In theory it all seems straightforward, fingers crossed Mr Spencer reads the forum and rides the race as above...!gl
I couldn't log in, and I had three absolute dead certain winners all at 33/1+, unbelievable betfair, what are they playing at.
I also couldn't login earlier, to tell you...
O'Meara is 18% 2TO and 5 winners from 14 runners in 2020 (Turf), that's 36%.
I've had a micro on Sagauteur 14:48 Hay at 15.5 on here.
O'Meara is 18% 2TO and 5 winners from 14 runners in 2020 (Turf), that's 36%.
I've had a micro on Sagauteur 14:48 Hay at 15.5 on here.
^ Since 2013 these 2TO winners came from France;
Two For Two 5/1
Steel Train 20/1
Lord Glitters 3/1
Hortzadar 4/7F
Two For Two 5/1
Steel Train 20/1
Lord Glitters 3/1
Hortzadar 4/7F
^Sagauteur was 2nd (beaten 2L) to Shaman in France last year (Heavy ground). Shaman won a Grp3 NTO, then was 2nd (Btn 1L) to Persian King in the French Guineas NTO.
Also, in the same race, Stuart Williams switchers;
First Run 0% (from 32 runners)
Second Run 3% (from 31 runners)
Third Run 15%
Give It Some Teddy ran very well (2TO) when 4th in a good race at Nby. The booking of Haydock king Kingscote makes it more interesting still.
First Run 0% (from 32 runners)
Second Run 3% (from 31 runners)
Third Run 15%
Give It Some Teddy ran very well (2TO) when 4th in a good race at Nby. The booking of Haydock king Kingscote makes it more interesting still.
Oct 16, 2020 -- 9:58AM, PHS wrote:
I also couldn't login earlier, to tell you...O'Meara is 18% 2TO and 5 winners from 14 runners in 2020 (Turf), that's 36%.I've had a micro on Sagauteur 14:48 Hay at 15.5 on here.
Drifted out to 20's on here, so it looks like today is not the day!
Don't suppose you backed Here Comes Johnny PHS, I know you were dissappointed with it's last run. I didn't hear anything about it today but did keep the faith.
Oct 16, 2020 -- 2:45PM, rekab wrote:
Don't suppose you backed Here Comes Johnny PHS, I know you were dissappointed with it's last run. I didn't hear anything about it today but did keep the faith.
Just looked back to see what you meant. Crossed wires I think.
You said "Yours had no chance from the draw PHS".
and my reply, "no it didn't"! was me agreeing with you about Walhaan, not me disagreeing about HCJ.
Ah I see, I thought you were being a bit harsh on it's last run. Definate crossed wires!
Think I put Sasson up when a 2TO switcher. Last of 8 that day. Now won twice since
.
.
Does make you think about sticking with them. Iv'e noticed a lot of Ryans coming in after he has given them!
Sat Switchers
Oliver has a 16% strike rate FTO in Hcps
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike |
| Tomily | 15:10 | Catterick | Newcombe, A G | Carr, Mrs R A | ||
| Bolder Bob | 16:20 | Catterick | Tuer, Grant | Ellison, B | ||
| Autumn War | 16:20 | Catterick | Hills, Charles | Williams, Ian | ||
| Dark Side Dream | 19:00 | Wolverhampton | Wallis, Charlie | Macey, Jessica | ||
| Pummel | 20:30 | Wolverhampton | Hannon , Richard | Evans, P D | ||
| Dame De Ruban | 14:11 | Market Rasen | Queally, Declan | Kirby, P A | #N/A | 13% |
| On Call | 12:43 | Stratford | OBrien, Joseph Patrick | Harris, Miss G | 11% | 9% |
| Justgivemeareason | 12:43 | Stratford | Dyson, Miss C | Wintle, A | 3% | 7% |
| Felicissimus | 13:13 | Stratford | Skelton, Daniel | Twiston-Davies, N A | 17% | 13% |
| Templehills | 14:53 | Stratford | ONeill, Jonjo | Twiston-Davies, N A | 14% | 13% |
| Cherokee Bill | 14:53 | Stratford | Meade, Noel | Oliver, Henry | 4% | 15% |
Oliver has a 16% strike rate FTO in Hcps
16:20 Cat
Not much value in this bet (just over 2/1), but I've dutched Glenties 9/2 and Gift Of Kings 13/2, two 3yo's that get 6lb from their elders.
Glenties ran quite well last time, with Ryan Moore taking an unorthodox route under the trees, he kept on quite well against two unexposed sorts that might be well ahead of their marks. On paper this is easier. He might be well suited by this track. Fanning on board is a +.
Gift Of Kings only just got up late over 1m2f at Ncl a few runs back and was noted making up ground last time at Ham on a day when doing that looked difficult. He gets a useful 13lb from Glenties and is the one with most potential.
Not much value in this bet (just over 2/1), but I've dutched Glenties 9/2 and Gift Of Kings 13/2, two 3yo's that get 6lb from their elders.
Glenties ran quite well last time, with Ryan Moore taking an unorthodox route under the trees, he kept on quite well against two unexposed sorts that might be well ahead of their marks. On paper this is easier. He might be well suited by this track. Fanning on board is a +.
Gift Of Kings only just got up late over 1m2f at Ncl a few runs back and was noted making up ground last time at Ham on a day when doing that looked difficult. He gets a useful 13lb from Glenties and is the one with most potential.
^ Glenties 7/2 everywhere else now
. Bit short for a MJ horse i.e. unpredictable.
. Bit short for a MJ horse i.e. unpredictable.
Just looked up the stats for Cat 1m 4f;
1) Sep-Oct, 3yo's have a very strong record compared to older horses
2) Three of the older horses with chances need their 7lb claimers to offset the 3yo WFA allowance, but the stats say 7lb claimer's have an exceptionally poor record round here, probably because of their inexperience at this tight track; 3% from 65 rides (exc specific jockey races like Apprentice, Amateur).
I've had a bit more on Glenties for a 2:1 profit ratio (makes the bet more worthwhile if he wins).
1) Sep-Oct, 3yo's have a very strong record compared to older horses
2) Three of the older horses with chances need their 7lb claimers to offset the 3yo WFA allowance, but the stats say 7lb claimer's have an exceptionally poor record round here, probably because of their inexperience at this tight track; 3% from 65 rides (exc specific jockey races like Apprentice, Amateur).
I've had a bit more on Glenties for a 2:1 profit ratio (makes the bet more worthwhile if he wins).
365 didn't cut the 9/2 to 4/1, or even 7/2! Straight to 100/30. I wouldn't be a backer at that price.
. I wouldn't be a backer at that price.
Just taken a quick look at the QEII. Several either don't look good enough or go on the ground;
1. Not good enough (egg on face 15:10 ?)
Century
Dark
Esco
Lancaster
Lord
Sir Busker
Molatham
Royal
2. Going
Veracious
Leaving a short-list of;
Circus
Roseman
The Revenant
Nazeef
Palace Pier
As I have short-list of only 5 and B365 are 1234 for EW (only 1/5th), I've backed Roseman at 33/1. He beat Century Dream by 4.5L last year on Heavy. Only question mark is how Soft is it really. If it's only GS by race time, that won't be soft enough for Roseman. In Ascot's description of Soft (heavy in places) we trust. Only a fun bet anyway.
1. Not good enough (egg on face 15:10 ?)
Century
Dark
Esco
Lancaster
Lord
Sir Busker
Molatham
Royal
2. Going
Veracious
Leaving a short-list of;
Circus
Roseman
The Revenant
Nazeef
Palace Pier
As I have short-list of only 5 and B365 are 1234 for EW (only 1/5th), I've backed Roseman at 33/1. He beat Century Dream by 4.5L last year on Heavy. Only question mark is how Soft is it really. If it's only GS by race time, that won't be soft enough for Roseman. In Ascot's description of Soft (heavy in places) we trust. Only a fun bet anyway.
Oct 16, 2020 -- 8:51PM, PHS wrote:
365 didn't cut the 9/2 to 4/1, or even 7/2! Straight to 100/30. I wouldn't be a backer at that price.
Hills opened 5/1, now go 5/2.
Fri Results
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike | Pos | Odds |
| Lincoln Park | 13:45 | Haydock | Appleby, M | Dascombe, Tom | ||||
| Joyful Mission | 14:48 | Haydock | Stoute, Sir Michael | Loughnane, David | 2 | 11/2 | ||
| Dajraan | 15:35 | Redcar | Gosden, J H M | Ryan, K A | ||||
| Niamhs Starlight | 16:05 | Redcar | Smart, B | Griffiths, D C | ||||
| Line Judge | 16:55 | Newcastle | OBrien, Joseph Patrick | Dods, M | ||||
| Rio De Cerisy | 20:30 | Newcastle | Elliott, Gordon | Scott, Miss Katie | ||||
| Red Skye Delight | 20:30 | Newcastle | Dunnett, Mrs C A | Hammond, Micky | ||||
| Doux Pretender | 13:00 | Fakenham | Henderson, N J | Pogson, Charles and Adam | 14% | #N/A | nr | |
| Dragon Sun | 16:10 | Fakenham | Hannon , Richard | ONeill, Jonjo | #N/A | 14% | ||
| Debbonair | 16:10 | Fakenham | Palmer, Hugo | Brennan, F J | #N/A | 9% | ||
| Espinator | 12:50 | Uttoxeter | Lacey, T | Wintle, A | 23% | 7% | ||
| Cabot Cliffs | 13:20 | Uttoxeter | Hills, Charles | Skelton, Daniel | #N/A | 17% | 1 | 6/1 |
| Bentley Wood | 13:20 | Uttoxeter | Channon, M R | Burchell, D | 12% | 11% | ||
| Small Farm | 13:50 | Uttoxeter | Mullins, W P | Mann, C J | 6% | 14% | ||
| Checkitout | 13:50 | Uttoxeter | Longsdon, C E | Twiston-Davies, N A | 12% | 13% | ||
| The Eaglehaslanded | 14:23 | Uttoxeter | Nicholls, P F | Scott, J | 16% | 16% | ||
| Wizards Bridge | 14:53 | Uttoxeter | Bickers-price, Callum | Scudamore, M J | #N/A | 14% |
Dutched More Bucks with Between The Waters in the 3.45 at Ffos tomorrow - both 16s
Both nice rating droppers, with their respective stables seeming in much better form than when they last run.
God tier analysis on my OLBG if you want to bore yourself
Both nice rating droppers, with their respective stables seeming in much better form than when they last run.
God tier analysis on my OLBG if you want to bore yourself
Oct 17, 2020 -- 3:11PM, REDROB wrote:
Good call PHS, hope you laid it short .
Thanks Rob
. No, didn't lay off as just a Microbet.
Oct 15, 2020 -- 10:29PM, Cork Langer wrote:
Firstly a well done to ryan on yet another winning selection and thanks to kiw and phs for their kind words in respect of my mere place.Still looking for that next winner and I have had an interest on Saturday in the Balmoral H'cap 16.15 at Ascot on Hortzadar 28/1, O'Meara likes a tilt at such races and has engaged Jamie Spencer to partner this runner as I presume Tudhope opted for Orbaan the other O'Meara representative.My reason for playing is that the horse has been in decent form, even its 9th last time out wasn't a bad run, it was only beaten 6 lengths, now drawn in eleven I am pinning my hopes on Spencer settling it last which should be a given knowing his modus operandi on the straight track at Ascot, he should then have the option to go wherever the better pace is and bring his mount through fast and late to collect!In theory it all seems straightforward, fingers crossed Mr Spencer reads the forum and rides the race as above...!gl
Bring this down. GL Cork.
Sun Switchers
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike |
| Nothing Man | 13:00 | Ffos Las | Dennis, David | Allwood, S | 10% | 47% |
| Estelle Ma Belle | 13:30 | Ffos Las | Mullins, W P | Nicholls, P F | 6% | 16% |
| Crazy Love | 13:15 | Kempton | Channon, M R | West, Miss Sheena | 12% | 10% |
| Cant Stop Now | 13:15 | Kempton | Cox, C G | Gordon, C | 0% | 14% |
| Gold Desert | 14:15 | Sedgefield | Hannon , Richard | Greenall, Oliver | #N/A | 10% |
| Jack **** | 16:00 | Sedgefield | Halley, John | Coltherd, W S | #N/A | 13% |
| Highland Sky | 16:00 | Sedgefield | Simcock, D M | Ellison, B | 0% | 13% |
| Farsideofthemoon | 16:00 | Sedgefield | Elliott, Gordon | Hammond, Micky | 18% | 11% |
| Democratic Oath | 17:40 | Sedgefield | Elliott, Gordon | Dalgleish, Keith | 18% | 21% |
^Non Handicap switchers
Nicholls 23%
Ellison 30%
Dalgleish 20%
Nicholls 23%
Ellison 30%
Dalgleish 20%
Oct 16, 2020 -- 6:01PM, PHS wrote:
16:20 CatNot much value in this bet (just over 2/1), but I've dutched Glenties 9/2 and Gift Of Kings 13/2, two 3yo's that get 6lb from their elders.Glenties ran quite well last time, with Ryan Moore taking an unorthodox route under the trees, he kept on quite well against two unexposed sorts that might be well ahead of their marks. On paper this is easier. He might be well suited by this track. Fanning on board is a +.Gift Of Kings only just got up late over 1m2f at Ncl a few runs back and was noted making up ground last time at Ham on a day when doing that looked difficult. He gets a useful 13lb from Glenties and is the one with most potential.
I'm not sure they wanted to hold up Glenties today; he appeared to be slowly away (Blinkers neg maybe?) and ridden along after the start. The winner was always travelling much better. So much for those 7lb claimer stats! Neither the winner nor her siblings and dam had shown a specific liking for Soft or Heavy ground in 16 runs, but she handled it very well.
.
Sat Results
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike | Pos | Odds |
| Tomily | 15:10 | Catterick | Newcombe, A G | Carr, Mrs R A | ||||
| Bolder Bob | 16:20 | Catterick | Tuer, Grant | Ellison, B | ||||
| Autumn War | 16:20 | Catterick | Hills, Charles | Williams, Ian | ||||
| Dark Side Dream | 19:00 | Wolverhampton | Wallis, Charlie | Macey, Jessica | ||||
| Pummel | 20:30 | Wolverhampton | Hannon , Richard | Evans, P D | ||||
| Dame De Ruban | 14:11 | Market Rasen | Queally, Declan | Kirby, P A | #N/A | 13% | ||
| On Call | 12:43 | Stratford | OBrien, Joseph Patrick | Harris, Miss G | 11% | 9% | ||
| Justgivemeareason | 12:43 | Stratford | Dyson, Miss C | Wintle, A | 3% | 7% | ||
| Felicissimus | 13:13 | Stratford | Skelton, Daniel | Twiston-Davies, N A | 17% | 13% | nr | |
| Templehills | 14:53 | Stratford | ONeill, Jonjo | Twiston-Davies, N A | 14% | 13% | 1 | 6/1 |
| Cherokee Bill | 14:53 | Stratford | Meade, Noel | Oliver, Henry | 4% | 15% | nr |
Mon Switchers
Back to Flat strike rates
Harris, M F since 2019
9/10
2/13 9/1
1/7 33/1
3/12 28/1
12/12 50/1
all at Bath though
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike |
| Happy Hollow | 14:20 | Pontefract | Swinbank, G A | Candlish, Jennie | 11% | 13% |
| Coolongolook | 14:30 | Windsor | Elliott, Gordon | Harris, M F | 22% | 0% |
| Settle Petal | 15:30 | Windsor | Phelan, P M | Brisland, Robyn | 7% | 6% |
| Paradise On Earth | 15:30 | Windsor | Gosden, J H M | Watson, Archie | 19% | 13% |
| Itsallaboutluck | 15:30 | Windsor | Hughes, Richard | Flint, J L | 11% | 10% |
| Zubaidah | 16:30 | Windsor | Chapple-Hyam, Jane | Butler, P | 13% | 4% |
| Glorious Dane | 19:30 | Wolverhampton | Walford, Mark | Camacho, Miss J A | ||
| Drakey Boy | 20:30 | Wolverhampton | Turner, W G M | West, Adam | ||
| Amelias Dance | 15:10 | Plumpton | McCain Jnr, D | Walford, Robert |
Back to Flat strike rates
Harris, M F since 2019
9/10
2/13 9/1
1/7 33/1
3/12 28/1
12/12 50/1
all at Bath though
bit short odds for this thread but gone/going in again on SFUMATO in the 5.30 at wolverhampton.
didn't think the surface would suit LTO at southwell and then nearly getting knocked over leaving the stalls finished what chance he had,william buick let him coast home thereafter.
now down to a 0-60 and racing over 7f which i feel is his optimum trip around wolves with a nice middle draw, famous last words but if he cannot go close in this we struggling.
around 6-1 at the mo.
good luck with any bets today.
didn't think the surface would suit LTO at southwell and then nearly getting knocked over leaving the stalls finished what chance he had,william buick let him coast home thereafter.
now down to a 0-60 and racing over 7f which i feel is his optimum trip around wolves with a nice middle draw, famous last words but if he cannot go close in this we struggling.
around 6-1 at the mo.
good luck with any bets today.
I thought that Troed Y Melin looked over priced in the 4.00 at Exeter tomorrow at 8/1
Two really solid seconds last season, and he’s only a pound higher. Maybe 19f will be sharp for him, but there are question marks surrounding those ahead of him in the market.
Two really solid seconds last season, and he’s only a pound higher. Maybe 19f will be sharp for him, but there are question marks surrounding those ahead of him in the market.
well done on the winner at wincanton last thursday ryan.
you should have a double awful ride on that leostar, he must have thought there was another circuit to go
you should have a double awful ride on that leostar, he must have thought there was another circuit to go
Tue Switchers
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike |
| Thoughtfully | 16:50 | Yarmouth | Jarvis, W | Sly, Mrs P | ||
| Sure Im Your Man | 13:50 | Newcastle | Charlton, R | Candlish, Jennie | ||
| Spartan Fighter | 15:00 | Newcastle | Carroll, D | Brittain, Antony | ||
| Calonne | 16:10 | Newcastle | Levins, J F | Harker, G A | ||
| Sarayaat | 16:40 | Newcastle | Fanshawe, J R | Scott, George | ||
| Raabeh | 17:10 | Newcastle | Meehan, B J | Brittain, Antony | ||
| Windy Writer | 13:10 | Exeter | England, Sam | Young, Maxwell | 14% | #N/A |
| Tango du Roy | 13:10 | Exeter | Williams, Evan | Hawke, N J | 12% | 12% |
| Kiruna Peak | 13:10 | Exeter | OBrien, Fergal | Brennan, F J | 17% | 9% |
| Simple Words | 13:40 | Exeter | OBrien, Joseph Patrick | Frost, J D | 11% | 7% |
| Out By Six | 13:40 | Exeter | Crawford, S R B | Oshea, J G M | 8% | 8% |
| Troed Y Melin | 16:00 | Exeter | Frost, J D | Honour, Chris | 7% | #N/A |
Oct 19, 2020 -- 3:05PM, knot in wood wrote:
well done on the winner at wincanton last thursday ryan.you should have a double awful ride on that leostar, he must have thought there was another circuit to go
I’m still seething over that one, it really wasn’t good
Casper Court at 11s in the 1.10
I think the stable have turned the corner, and got some well handicapped beasts. Jock has to be a massive positive in this race as I don’t know the others, most haven’t ridden before under rules
I think the stable have turned the corner, and got some well handicapped beasts. Jock has to be a massive positive in this race as I don’t know the others, most haven’t ridden before under rules
Purple Knight - 4.10 New 20/1
Just the one hcp run when well beaten 3 weeks back in class 4 over 10 furlongs, only decent run was time before when beaten 2 lengths on tapeta at Wolver by a now 100 rated horse, the second won next time out & is rated 85, drops dropped 5lb & two grades to a class 6 & back to a mile, first time tongue tie & hopeful of something better back on tapeta.
Just the one hcp run when well beaten 3 weeks back in class 4 over 10 furlongs, only decent run was time before when beaten 2 lengths on tapeta at Wolver by a now 100 rated horse, the second won next time out & is rated 85, drops dropped 5lb & two grades to a class 6 & back to a mile, first time tongue tie & hopeful of something better back on tapeta.
PHS31 Jul 20 09:54Joined: 16 May 03 | Topic/replies: 10,747 | Blogger: PHS's blog
Fri Switchers
No solid pointers but Stephens is 1-2-3. All three runners came from hard acts to follow in Sir Mark and Tregoning. Changing the country to IRE reveals that Murphy is very poor with a 3.7% strike rate. Drawn 11 over 7f though, I won't be having a go.
For my sins, I've been tempted in. Well it is more than double the opening price and stall 6 is out - Our Shakila 30/1 ew 1234 if 12 run. Not much pace stopping her getting across from 10 wide gives her a chance. £3.5k is decent prize money for 0-67 beasts, so maybe they'll be going for it.
Not been keeping up with the AW, but just noticed this won NTO at 28/1 (43.48 BFSP).
Fri Switchers
No solid pointers but Stephens is 1-2-3. All three runners came from hard acts to follow in Sir Mark and Tregoning. Changing the country to IRE reveals that Murphy is very poor with a 3.7% strike rate. Drawn 11 over 7f though, I won't be having a go.
For my sins, I've been tempted in. Well it is more than double the opening price and stall 6 is out - Our Shakila 30/1 ew 1234 if 12 run. Not much pace stopping her getting across from 10 wide gives her a chance. £3.5k is decent prize money for 0-67 beasts, so maybe they'll be going for it.
Not been keeping up with the AW, but just noticed this won NTO at 28/1 (43.48 BFSP)
.
They'd been holding up Araka Li (15:10 Yar) in his first 3 races this year but he's too keen, so they changed tactics 2 runs back at Hamilton, where he led at what looked a strong pace. He was beaten 1.25L by Viceregent but still stayed on strongly. Viceregent was 2nd only beaten a Nse in a much better race yesterday.
As a result of those early races where he was held up, he's now dropped from 70 to 59, and is looking very well handicapped, particularly if new tactics suit (probably didn't stay up 3f in trip LTO). The absence of nr Lottie Marie, a potential rival for the lead looks a positive.
Backed in from 22/1 to 14/1 this morning.
As a result of those early races where he was held up, he's now dropped from 70 to 59, and is looking very well handicapped, particularly if new tactics suit (probably didn't stay up 3f in trip LTO). The absence of nr Lottie Marie, a potential rival for the lead looks a positive.
Backed in from 22/1 to 14/1 this morning.
But the secret to my success is to never enjoy a win, plus it didn’t win by the 20 lengths as expected, so it was very disappointing.
The winner BORODIN (IRE) appeared to show improved form, compared with its previous run at Pontefract on 17 September 2020 where the gelding finished fifth of seven, beaten by 10 ¼ lengths. Sam England’s explanation that BORODIN (IRE) benefitted from the re-application of cheekpieces on this occasion, was noted. The gelding was routine tested.
Wed Switchers
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike |
| Found Dout | 16:10 | Kempton | Chamings, P R | Attwater, M J | ||
| Pride Of Pemberley | 13:25 | Fontwell | Snowden, Jamie | Dunger, N A | 14% | #N/A |
| Willies Dream | 14:00 | Fontwell | Westwood, Miss Jesicca | Hawker, Richard | #N/A | 5% |
| Van Meegeren | 14:00 | Fontwell | Slevin, Nigel | Bridgwater, D G | 0% | 15% |
| Red Devil Star | 14:35 | Fontwell | Richards, Emma | Wintle, A | #N/A | 7% |
| Churchtown Glen | 15:45 | Fontwell | Winters, Michael | Bryant, Miss M P | #N/A | #N/A |
| Lemon Shoulder | 16:23 | Fontwell | Skelton, Daniel | Woods, Mrs Cynthia | 17% | #N/A |
| Ucanaver | 17:30 | Fontwell | West, Adam | Honeyball, A J | 18% | 19% |
| Coachella Green | 13:15 | Hereford | Bandey, R J | Drinkwater, S W | 6% | 11% |
| Stay Out Of Court | 13:50 | Hereford | Pipe, D E | Wintle, A | 12% | 7% |
| Call Simon | 14:25 | Hereford | Hobbs, P J | Martin, Miss Nicky | 15% | 9% |
| Lucky One | 15:35 | Hereford | Mullins, W P | Nicholls, P F | 6% | 16% |
| Tb Broke Her | 16:15 | Hereford | Jukes, Sam | Potter, R D | #N/A | #N/A |
| Miss Mahmite | 16:45 | Hereford | Snowden, Jamie | Kirby, P A | 14% | 13% |
| Cup Of Coffee | 16:45 | Hereford | Bandey, R J | Drinkwater, S W | 6% | 11% |
Sorry about that one, I thought it was going to be a bit harder to win.
Its his tip PHS , he couldnt post on the forum for some reason .
Oct 20, 2020 -- 7:10PM, jodean wrote:
forgive me for i have sinned
Tue Results
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike | Pos | Odds |
| Thoughtfully | 16:50 | Yarmouth | Jarvis, W | Sly, Mrs P | ||||
| Sure Im Your Man | 13:50 | Newcastle | Charlton, R | Candlish, Jennie | ||||
| Spartan Fighter | 15:00 | Newcastle | Carroll, D | Brittain, Antony | ||||
| Calonne | 16:10 | Newcastle | Levins, J F | Harker, G A | ||||
| Sarayaat | 16:40 | Newcastle | Fanshawe, J R | Scott, George | ||||
| Raabeh | 17:10 | Newcastle | Meehan, B J | Brittain, Antony | ||||
| Windy Writer | 13:10 | Exeter | England, Sam | Young, Maxwell | 14% | #N/A | ||
| Tango du Roy | 13:10 | Exeter | Williams, Evan | Hawke, N J | 12% | 12% | 2 | 40/1 |
| Kiruna Peak | 13:10 | Exeter | OBrien, Fergal | Brennan, F J | 17% | 9% | ||
| Simple Words | 13:40 | Exeter | OBrien, Joseph Patrick | Frost, J D | 11% | 7% | ||
| Out By Six | 13:40 | Exeter | Crawford, S R B | Oshea, J G M | 8% | 8% | ||
| Troed Y Melin | 16:00 | Exeter | Frost, J D | Honour, Chris | 7% | #N/A | 1 | 9/2 |
2.45 newmarket ...zacharia 4th behind a decent one in lone eagle and omaan at goodwood ,10 pound better off with oman for just over 5l and the extra 2f and ground should be fine . 20/1 tops each way could be a bit of value .
Finally, Betfair have lifted my ban.
It’s my birthday today, please could everyone wish me a happy birthday as I live a solitary life and need to know my very hard work is worth the social sacrifices I make, thank you.
It’s my birthday today, please could everyone wish me a happy birthday as I live a solitary life and need to know my very hard work is worth the social sacrifices I make, thank you.
happy birthday ryan ! the hard work is much appreciated !
Happy Birthday Ryan, thank you for the tips, another good winner yesterday.
Always try to acknowledge them but for some reason "Post Reply" just doesn't work - and that's when I can actually log on
Always try to acknowledge them but for some reason "Post Reply" just doesn't work - and that's when I can actually log on
Happy Birthday Ryan. 
Where would all us mediocre gamblers be without all that hard work.
Where would all us mediocre gamblers be without all that hard work.
Happy Birthday Ryan keep finding the winners mate, only recently come back on the forum didnt realise some of the old uns post ...
Thank you, this positivity has energised me to make another selection in the race.
Good News at 12/1+
Had to do this horse too as it really does look testing at Fontwell today. He won this race last year by 7 lengths off 5lb lower, and was running a good race on seasonal debut but for making a really bad mistake in the back straight.
There could be something better handicapped in here (hopefully Premier Celtic), but this one is a dour stayer over the trip so he should be involved.
Good News at 12/1+
Had to do this horse too as it really does look testing at Fontwell today. He won this race last year by 7 lengths off 5lb lower, and was running a good race on seasonal debut but for making a really bad mistake in the back straight.
There could be something better handicapped in here (hopefully Premier Celtic), but this one is a dour stayer over the trip so he should be involved.
Happy birthday Ryan
Older but I doubt you could be any wiser!
Older but I doubt you could be any wiser!
Thu Switchers
OBrien is 21% with switchers running in a Hcp
Henderson is 27% in Non-Hcps
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike |
| Irish Master | 20:30 | Chelmsford City | Harrington, Mrs John | McEntee, P S | ||
| Embour | 16:05 | Wolverhampton | Hannon , Richard | Carr, Mrs R A | ||
| El Guanche | 16:05 | Wolverhampton | Sanchez, M Delcher | Ferguson, James | ||
| Doctor Nuno | 17:10 | Wolverhampton | Loughnane, Daniel Mark | Carroll, A W | ||
| Mid Day Rush | 19:15 | Wolverhampton | Jardine, I | Carroll, A W | ||
| Infinite Sun | 12:35 | Carlisle | OBrien, Fergal | Waugh, S G | 17% | 9% |
| Sayar | 13:40 | Carlisle | Mullins, W P | Kent, Nick | 6% | 6% |
| Mick Maestro | 14:50 | Carlisle | King, A | Kent, Nick | 11% | 6% |
| Pyramid Place | 13:47 | Lingfield | Gosden, J H M | Harris, M F | #N/A | 11% |
| Nevendon | 13:47 | Lingfield | Bell, M L W | Skelton, Daniel | 38% | 17% |
| Huntsmans Jog | 14:22 | Lingfield | Cantillon, D E | OBrien, Fergal | 17% | 17% |
| Dinos Benefit | 16:45 | Lingfield | Tizzard, C L | Scott, J | 13% | 16% |
| Whitlock | 13:25 | Ludlow | Gosden, J H M | Henderson, N J | #N/A | 14% |
| Mayne | 13:25 | Ludlow | Balding, A M | ONeill, Jonjo | 0% | 14% |
| Dave And Bernie | 15:45 | Ludlow | Barry, Michael | Signy, Oliver | #N/A | 33% |
| Billys Angel | 16:20 | Ludlow | Murray, Adrian | Murphy, Amy | 0% | 19% |
| Hello Fellas | 16:53 | Ludlow | OBrien, Fergal | Brennan, F J | 17% | 9% |
OBrien is 21% with switchers running in a Hcp
Henderson is 27% in Non-Hcps
In the space of 30secs, I went from feeling clever backing it EW 4 places to hating myself for going EW (usually bet win only).
Belated happy returns and vwd on all of your recent successful advices
Oct 21, 2020 -- 4:30PM, FOYLESWAR wrote:
brilliant ryan ..........never ever in doubt!
Wed Results
| Name | Time | Cse | From | To | From Strike | To Strike | Pos | Odds |
| Found Dout | 16:10 | Kempton | Chamings, P R | Attwater, M J | ||||
| Pride Of Pemberley | 13:25 | Fontwell | Snowden, Jamie | Dunger, N A | 14% | #N/A | ||
| Willies Dream | 14:00 | Fontwell | Westwood, Miss Jesicca | Hawker, Richard | #N/A | 5% | nr | |
| Van Meegeren | 14:00 | Fontwell | Slevin, Nigel | Bridgwater, D G | 0% | 15% | ||
| Red Devil Star | 14:35 | Fontwell | Richards, Emma | Wintle, A | #N/A | 7% | ||
| Churchtown Glen | 15:45 | Fontwell | Winters, Michael | Bryant, Miss M P | #N/A | #N/A | nr | |
| Lemon Shoulder | 16:23 | Fontwell | Skelton, Daniel | Woods, Mrs Cynthia | 17% | #N/A | ||
| Ucanaver | 17:30 | Fontwell | West, Adam | Honeyball, A J | 18% | 19% | 1 | 11/8 |
| Coachella Green | 13:15 | Hereford | Bandey, R J | Drinkwater, S W | 6% | 11% | nr | |
| Stay Out Of Court | 13:50 | Hereford | Pipe, D E | Wintle, A | 12% | 7% | ||
| Call Simon | 14:25 | Hereford | Hobbs, P J | Martin, Miss Nicky | 15% | 9% | ||
| Lucky One | 15:35 | Hereford | Mullins, W P | Nicholls, P F | 6% | 16% | ||
| Tb Broke Her | 16:15 | Hereford | Jukes, Sam | Potter, R D | #N/A | #N/A | ||
| Miss Mahmite | 16:45 | Hereford | Snowden, Jamie | Kirby, P A | 14% | 13% | 3 | 100/1 |
| Cup Of Coffee | 16:45 | Hereford | Bandey, R J | Drinkwater, S W | 6% | 11% |
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