Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There are currently 4 people viewing this thread.
RyanWe
11 Feb 16 23:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 32,572 | Blogger: RyanWe's blog
Friday

Always On The Run - 2.05 at Kempton - 6/1 with a few books, 7.2 on betfair

Missed the party a bit here, too busy crying over more odds on in running losers, but the show must goes on. Someone else pointed this horse out to me (TheSecret), absolutely loved this horse's first run for Tom George on New Year's Eve. It was his first run over fences, crazy fresh, too keen, but jumped like a bunny. I really think this horse is going to be a lot better over fences, and although he's bred to stay 3 miles, I do think dropping to 16f is the right thing to do if you're not going to put him in a hood. He ran such a nice race at Warwick, and it doesn't look like much was expected, because he was sent off at 12/1 - whether that was because of fitness, or doubts about the ground, I'm not sure, but he'll be getting some better ground tomorrow, and these other trainers have all been doing so well with these ex McCain horses, that I wouldn't expect this to be any different.

Hopefully.. Just blast him from the front, catch me if you can, a bit like when they had Stellar Notion, Nacarat etc etc they love their front runners at Kempton.

Saturday

Modus in the Betfair hurdle - Currently 11.0 on betfair

He's only top price 7/1 with the books at the moment, sure to drift out with them if he stays at this price, but this whole reaction of Bazza picking that Mullins horse is way over the top.

Where do I start with Modus?

2nd in the Champion bumper last season, had Yanworth behind him in 4th, and the rest. A fine 3rd in the Punchestown bumper too.

Both of these runs were achieved with a pretty average trainer in Robert Stephens, sorry Stevo.

JP buys him, whacks him with Nicholls. Wins easily on his first two starts, but throws a bad one in when last seen on heavy ground. Not that it was terrible, but it was still disappointing. It wouldn't come as a surprise to hear that the stable strike rate was 10% in December, something rarely seen for the champion trainer.

The stable are flying again now though, 33%. Even the horses losing are running crackers.

He's got a mark of 139, which looks lenient to me. He beat Charmix off levels pretty cosily, and I know that horse has improved for stepping up in trip but the handicapper thinks he's 145 rated. Charmix beat Emerging Force by 38 lengths, and we saw him win a handicap off 129 today. I know Emerging Force might of ran below par that day, and he probably improved for the step up in trip too today, but there is just so many horses that Modus has beat that make him look a horse who could turn out to be top class.

I suppose there is question marks over the horse on heavy ground, we don't know if that's what we are going to get yet. A dry day tomorrow, and it might chuck it down on Saturday, but at least it will be sloppy ground, not tacky.

I think the horse is miles better than his mark of 139. I know other horses are probably chucked in too, but I feel like there is a lot more to come.
Pause Switch to Standard View Some Guesses For.. The Next Few Days
Show More
Loading...
Report RyanWe October 15, 2020 5:20 PM BST
I have dutched two in the Toxxy 2.53 as I am slightly obsessed with getting the favourite beat in here, as these are two potentially very well in horses.

Shanty Alley 6/1

This horse has been pretty luckless, looked unlucky not to win at Wetherby back in December when a horse fell in front of him at the last, and then fell 3 out when leading by a good 8 lengths at Southwell when last seen too.

But because of how far out it was, the handicapper hasn’t put him up, but I think he was certain to win by at least 10 lengths.

Carver even takes off a handy 5lb here too. He ran well over hurdles here before, and the stable are in great form too.

It will take a good one to beat him.

Gars Bar Dine 15/2+

This looked a great switcher from Russell to Skeletor, but they ran him over a very sharp 19f on the stable debut on good ground and he disappointed somewhat, but he was lame, and he looked a 24f horse on his previous runs.

He's dropped down another 4lb, and now we see him at what looks the right distance of 24f on ground with cut too. If he had never had that first disappointing run, he woud be close to favourite here, so he's well worth another shot.
Report jodean October 15, 2020 5:21 PM BST
Great winner Cool

We need to keep a tracker
Report RyanWe October 15, 2020 5:22 PM BST
I have one, we just need to remove the people that remind me after they win Laugh
Report PHS October 15, 2020 5:47 PM BST

Oct 15, 2020 -- 5:22PM, RyanWe wrote:


I have one, we just need to remove the people that remind me after they win


Laugh

Report foxcovert October 15, 2020 6:24 PM BST
Well done again Ryan Grin

small ew Hahadi at a nice price. Bigger EW Leostar wasnt sure he'd stay up the hill, seemed to be going well and dropped back before coming up the hill with a wet sail Sad. Looked at Dollar and couldn't fancy it today Angry
Report PHS October 15, 2020 6:31 PM BST

Oct 14, 2020 -- 10:22PM, PHS wrote:


Assimilation (19:30 Chelm) seems a big price at 12/1 (already backed in from 16/1) for a prolific AW horse (203 day absence LTO when last). Walker had a winner in the last at Kem tonight.Love Dreams was only beaten a hd by subsequent winner Variyann on last run here and the drop to 7f looks positive.Both just happen to have the assistance of James Doyle.Small ew Double pays 168/1


Dreams a nr, leaving me with a very useful 12/1 ew at 1/5th odds Angry.

Report jodean October 15, 2020 6:37 PM BST

Oct 15, 2020 -- 5:22PM, RyanWe wrote:


I have one, we just need to remove the people that remind me after they win


Whoops

Report madhatters October 15, 2020 8:18 PM BST
WD Ryan
Report PHS October 15, 2020 8:43 PM BST
Thu Results

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike        Pos        Odds   
    Wolflet        19:00        Chelmsford City        Gosden, J H M        Williams, S C                                   
    Saharan Shimmer        19:00        Chelmsford City        Menuisier, David        Keightley, S L                                   
    Fame N Fortune        17:25        Lingfield        Tuite, Joseph        Baker, George                        1        10/1   
    Dark Side Prince        18:15        Southwell        Wallis, Charlie        Macey, Jessica                                   
    Stoneford         12:20        Carlisle        Coyle, Tony        Ender, Miss S J        5%        4%                   
    Gortroe Joe         12:20        Carlisle        Skelton, Daniel        OBrien, Fergal        17%        17%                   
    Ringo Kid        15:01        Carlisle        Byrne, Mrs Olivia        Ewart, J P L        #N/A        16%                   
    Antidote         14:10        Wincanton        Hughes, Richard        Frost, J D        0%        7%                   
    Dave And Bernie         15:20        Wincanton        Barry, Michael        Signy, Oliver        #N/A        33%        nr           
    River Of Intrigue         17:35        Wincanton        Oshea, J G M        Potter, R D        8%        #N/A                   
Report Cork Langer October 15, 2020 10:29 PM BST
Firstly a well done to ryan on yet another winning selection and thanks to kiw and phs for their kind words in respect of my mere place.

Still looking for that next winner and I have had an interest on Saturday in the Balmoral H'cap 16.15 at Ascot on Hortzadar 28/1, O'Meara likes a tilt at such races and has engaged Jamie Spencer to partner this runner as I presume Tudhope opted for Orbaan the other O'Meara representative.

My reason for playing is that the horse has been in decent form, even its 9th last time out wasn't a bad run, it was only beaten 6 lengths, now drawn in eleven I am pinning my hopes on Spencer settling it last which should be a given knowing his modus operandi on the straight track at Ascot, he should then have the option to go wherever the better pace is and bring his mount through fast and late to collect!

In theory it all seems straightforward, fingers crossed Mr Spencer reads the forum and rides the race as above...!gl
Report RyanWe October 16, 2020 9:27 AM BST
I couldn't log in, and I had three absolute dead certain winners all at 33/1+, unbelievable betfair, what are they playing at.
Report rekab October 16, 2020 9:38 AM BST
ShockedGrinShocked
Report PHS October 16, 2020 9:58 AM BST
I also couldn't login earlier, to tell you...

O'Meara is 18% 2TO and 5 winners from 14 runners in 2020 (Turf), that's 36%.

I've had a micro on Sagauteur 14:48 Hay at 15.5 on here.
Report PHS October 16, 2020 10:03 AM BST
^ Since 2013 these 2TO winners came from France;

Two For Two 5/1
Steel Train 20/1
Lord Glitters 3/1
Hortzadar 4/7F
Report PHS October 16, 2020 10:20 AM BST
^Sagauteur was 2nd (beaten 2L) to Shaman in France last year (Heavy ground). Shaman won a Grp3 NTO, then was 2nd (Btn 1L) to Persian King in the French Guineas NTO.
Report PHS October 16, 2020 10:53 AM BST
Also, in the same race, Stuart Williams switchers;

First Run 0% (from 32 runners)
Second Run 3% (from 31 runners)
Third Run 15%

Give It Some Teddy ran very well (2TO) when 4th in a good race at Nby. The booking of Haydock king Kingscote makes it more interesting still.
Report PHS October 16, 2020 2:31 PM BST

Oct 16, 2020 -- 9:58AM, PHS wrote:


I also couldn't login earlier, to tell you...O'Meara is 18% 2TO and 5 winners from 14 runners in 2020 (Turf), that's 36%.I've had a micro on Sagauteur 14:48 Hay at 15.5 on here.


Drifted out to 20's on here, so it looks like today is not the day!

Report rekab October 16, 2020 2:45 PM BST
Don't suppose you backed Here Comes Johnny PHS, I know you were dissappointed with it's last run. I didn't hear anything about it today but did keep the faith.
Report PHS October 16, 2020 2:55 PM BST

Oct 16, 2020 -- 2:45PM, rekab wrote:


Don't suppose you backed Here Comes Johnny PHS, I know you were dissappointed with it's last run. I didn't hear anything about it today but did keep the faith.


Just looked back to see what you meant. Crossed wires I think.

You said "Yours had no chance from the draw PHS".

and my reply, "no it didn't"! was me agreeing with you about Walhaan, not me disagreeing about HCJ.

Report PHS October 16, 2020 2:57 PM BST
...but WD with HCJ todayWink
Report rekab October 16, 2020 3:05 PM BST
Ah I see, I thought you were being a bit harsh on it's last run. Definate crossed wires!
Report PHS October 16, 2020 3:50 PM BST
Think I put Sasson up when a 2TO switcher. Last of 8 that day. Now won twice sinceCry.
Report rekab October 16, 2020 4:08 PM BST
Does make you think about sticking with them. Iv'e noticed a lot of Ryans coming in after he has given them!
Report PHS October 16, 2020 4:11 PM BST
Sat Switchers

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike   
    Tomily         15:10        Catterick        Newcombe, A G        Carr, Mrs R A                   
    Bolder Bob         16:20        Catterick        Tuer, Grant        Ellison, B                   
    Autumn War         16:20        Catterick        Hills, Charles        Williams, Ian                   
    Dark Side Dream        19:00        Wolverhampton        Wallis, Charlie        Macey, Jessica                   
    Pummel         20:30        Wolverhampton        Hannon , Richard        Evans, P D                   
    Dame De Ruban         14:11        Market Rasen        Queally, Declan        Kirby, P A        #N/A        13%   
    On Call         12:43        Stratford        OBrien, Joseph Patrick        Harris, Miss G        11%        9%   
    Justgivemeareason         12:43        Stratford        Dyson, Miss C        Wintle, A        3%        7%   
    Felicissimus         13:13        Stratford        Skelton, Daniel        Twiston-Davies, N A        17%        13%   
    Templehills         14:53        Stratford        ONeill, Jonjo        Twiston-Davies, N A        14%        13%   
    Cherokee Bill        14:53        Stratford        Meade, Noel        Oliver, Henry        4%        15%   


Oliver has a 16% strike rate FTO in Hcps
Report PHS October 16, 2020 6:01 PM BST
16:20 Cat

Not much value in this bet (just over 2/1), but I've dutched Glenties 9/2 and Gift Of Kings 13/2, two 3yo's that get 6lb from their elders.

Glenties ran quite well last time, with Ryan Moore taking an unorthodox route under the trees, he kept on quite well against two unexposed sorts that might be well ahead of their marks. On paper this is easier. He might be well suited by this track. Fanning on board is a +.

Gift Of Kings only just got up late over 1m2f at Ncl a few runs back and was noted making up ground last time at Ham on a day when doing that looked difficult. He gets a useful 13lb from Glenties and is the one with most potential.
Report PHS October 16, 2020 6:33 PM BST
^ Glenties 7/2 everywhere else nowShocked. Bit short for a MJ horse i.e. unpredictable.
Report PHS October 16, 2020 8:23 PM BST
Just looked up the stats for Cat 1m 4f;

1) Sep-Oct, 3yo's have a very strong record compared to older horses

2) Three of the older horses with chances need their 7lb claimers to offset the 3yo WFA allowance, but the stats say 7lb claimer's have an exceptionally poor record round here, probably because of their inexperience at this tight track; 3% from 65 rides (exc specific jockey races like Apprentice, Amateur).

I've had a bit more on Glenties for a 2:1 profit ratio (makes the bet more worthwhile if he wins).
Report PHS October 16, 2020 8:51 PM BST
365 didn't cut the 9/2 to 4/1, or even 7/2! Straight to 100/30Shocked. I wouldn't be a backer at that price.
Report PHS October 16, 2020 9:29 PM BST
Just taken a quick look at the QEII. Several either don't look good enough or go on the ground;

1. Not good enough (egg on face 15:10 ?)
Century
Dark
Esco
Lancaster
Lord
Sir Busker
Molatham
Royal

2. Going
Veracious

Leaving a short-list of;

Circus
Roseman
The Revenant
Nazeef
Palace Pier

As I have short-list of only 5 and B365 are 1234 for EW (only 1/5th), I've backed Roseman at 33/1. He beat Century Dream by 4.5L last year on Heavy. Only question mark is how Soft is it really. If it's only GS by race time, that won't be soft enough for Roseman. In Ascot's description of Soft (heavy in places) we trust. Only a fun bet anyway.
Report PHS October 16, 2020 9:31 PM BST

Oct 16, 2020 -- 8:51PM, PHS wrote:


365 didn't cut the 9/2 to 4/1, or even 7/2! Straight to 100/30. I wouldn't be a backer at that price.


Hills opened 5/1, now go 5/2Grin.

Report PHS October 16, 2020 10:03 PM BST
Fri Results
    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike        Pos        Odds   
    Lincoln Park        13:45        Haydock        Appleby, M        Dascombe, Tom                                   
    Joyful Mission         14:48        Haydock        Stoute, Sir Michael        Loughnane, David                        2        11/2   
    Dajraan        15:35        Redcar        Gosden, J H M        Ryan, K A                                   
    Niamhs Starlight         16:05        Redcar        Smart, B        Griffiths, D C                                   
    Line Judge        16:55        Newcastle        OBrien, Joseph Patrick        Dods, M                                   
    Rio De Cerisy         20:30        Newcastle        Elliott, Gordon        Scott, Miss Katie                                   
    Red Skye Delight         20:30        Newcastle        Dunnett, Mrs C A        Hammond, Micky                                   
    Doux Pretender         13:00        Fakenham        Henderson, N J        Pogson, Charles and Adam        14%        #N/A        nr           
    Dragon Sun        16:10        Fakenham        Hannon , Richard        ONeill, Jonjo        #N/A        14%                   
    Debbonair         16:10        Fakenham        Palmer, Hugo        Brennan, F J        #N/A        9%                   
    Espinator         12:50        Uttoxeter        Lacey, T        Wintle, A        23%        7%                   
    Cabot Cliffs         13:20        Uttoxeter        Hills, Charles        Skelton, Daniel        #N/A        17%        1        6/1   
    Bentley Wood        13:20        Uttoxeter        Channon, M R        Burchell, D        12%        11%                   
    Small Farm         13:50        Uttoxeter        Mullins, W P        Mann, C J        6%        14%                   
    Checkitout         13:50        Uttoxeter        Longsdon, C E        Twiston-Davies, N A        12%        13%                   
    The Eaglehaslanded         14:23        Uttoxeter        Nicholls, P F        Scott, J        16%        16%                   
    Wizards Bridge        14:53        Uttoxeter        Bickers-price, Callum        Scudamore, M J        #N/A        14%                   
Report RyanWe October 17, 2020 2:26 PM BST
Dutched More Bucks with Between The Waters in the 3.45 at Ffos tomorrow - both 16s

Both nice rating droppers, with their respective stables seeming in much better form than when they last run.

God tier analysis on my OLBG if you want to bore yourself
Report REDROB October 17, 2020 3:11 PM BST
Good call PHS, hope you laid it short .
Report PHS October 17, 2020 4:06 PM BST

Oct 17, 2020 -- 3:11PM, REDROB wrote:


Good call PHS, hope you laid it short .


Thanks RobWink. No, didn't lay off as just a Microbet.

Report PHS October 17, 2020 4:07 PM BST

Oct 15, 2020 -- 10:29PM, Cork Langer wrote:


Firstly a well done to ryan on yet another winning selection and thanks to kiw and phs for their kind words in respect of my mere place.Still looking for that next winner and I have had an interest on Saturday in the Balmoral H'cap 16.15 at Ascot on Hortzadar 28/1, O'Meara likes a tilt at such races and has engaged Jamie Spencer to partner this runner as I presume Tudhope opted for Orbaan the other O'Meara representative.My reason for playing is that the horse has been in decent form, even its 9th last time out wasn't a bad run, it was only beaten 6 lengths, now drawn in eleven I am pinning my hopes on Spencer settling it last which should be a given knowing his modus operandi on the straight track at Ascot, he should then have the option to go wherever the better pace is and bring his mount through fast and late to collect!In theory it all seems straightforward, fingers crossed Mr Spencer reads the forum and rides the race as above...!gl


Bring this down. GL Cork.

Report PHS October 17, 2020 4:07 PM BST
Sun Switchers

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike   
    Nothing Man         13:00        Ffos Las        Dennis, David        Allwood, S        10%        47%   
    Estelle Ma Belle         13:30        Ffos Las        Mullins, W P        Nicholls, P F        6%        16%   
    Crazy Love        13:15        Kempton        Channon, M R        West, Miss Sheena        12%        10%   
    Cant Stop Now         13:15        Kempton        Cox, C G        Gordon, C        0%        14%   
    Gold Desert        14:15        Sedgefield        Hannon , Richard        Greenall, Oliver        #N/A        10%   
    Jack ****         16:00        Sedgefield        Halley, John        Coltherd, W S        #N/A        13%   
    Highland Sky         16:00        Sedgefield        Simcock, D M        Ellison, B        0%        13%   
    Farsideofthemoon         16:00        Sedgefield        Elliott, Gordon        Hammond, Micky        18%        11%   
    Democratic Oath         17:40        Sedgefield        Elliott, Gordon        Dalgleish, Keith        18%        21%   
Report PHS October 17, 2020 4:12 PM BST
^Non Handicap switchers
Nicholls 23%
Ellison 30%
Dalgleish 20%
Report PHS October 17, 2020 5:44 PM BST

Oct 16, 2020 -- 6:01PM, PHS wrote:


16:20 CatNot much value in this bet (just over 2/1), but I've dutched Glenties 9/2 and Gift Of Kings 13/2, two 3yo's that get 6lb from their elders.Glenties ran quite well last time, with Ryan Moore taking an unorthodox route under the trees, he kept on quite well against two unexposed sorts that might be well ahead of their marks. On paper this is easier. He might be well suited by this track. Fanning on board is a +.Gift Of Kings only just got up late over 1m2f at Ncl a few runs back and was noted making up ground last time at Ham on a day when doing that looked difficult. He gets a useful 13lb from Glenties and is the one with most potential.


I'm not sure they wanted to hold up Glenties today; he appeared to be slowly away (Blinkers neg maybe?) and ridden along after the start. The winner was always travelling much better. So much for those 7lb claimer stats! Neither the winner nor her siblings and dam had shown a specific liking for Soft or Heavy ground in 16 runs, but she handled it very well.

Report PHS October 17, 2020 6:00 PM BST
I see The Revenant is ex-Hugo PalmerPlain.
Report PHS October 17, 2020 8:34 PM BST
Sat Results

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike        Pos        Odds   
    Tomily         15:10        Catterick        Newcombe, A G        Carr, Mrs R A                                   
    Bolder Bob         16:20        Catterick        Tuer, Grant        Ellison, B                                   
    Autumn War         16:20        Catterick        Hills, Charles        Williams, Ian                                   
    Dark Side Dream        19:00        Wolverhampton        Wallis, Charlie        Macey, Jessica                                   
    Pummel         20:30        Wolverhampton        Hannon , Richard        Evans, P D                                   
    Dame De Ruban         14:11        Market Rasen        Queally, Declan        Kirby, P A        #N/A        13%                   
    On Call         12:43        Stratford        OBrien, Joseph Patrick        Harris, Miss G        11%        9%                   
    Justgivemeareason         12:43        Stratford        Dyson, Miss C        Wintle, A        3%        7%                   
    Felicissimus         13:13        Stratford        Skelton, Daniel        Twiston-Davies, N A        17%        13%        nr           
    Templehills         14:53        Stratford        ONeill, Jonjo        Twiston-Davies, N A        14%        13%        1        6/1   
    Cherokee Bill        14:53        Stratford        Meade, Noel        Oliver, Henry        4%        15%        nr           
Report PHS October 18, 2020 3:56 PM BST
Mon Switchers

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike   
    Happy Hollow        14:20        Pontefract        Swinbank, G A        Candlish, Jennie        11%        13%   
    Coolongolook        14:30        Windsor        Elliott, Gordon        Harris, M F        22%        0%   
    Settle Petal        15:30        Windsor        Phelan, P M        Brisland, Robyn        7%        6%   
    Paradise On Earth        15:30        Windsor        Gosden, J H M        Watson, Archie        19%        13%   
    Itsallaboutluck         15:30        Windsor        Hughes, Richard        Flint, J L        11%        10%   
    Zubaidah        16:30        Windsor        Chapple-Hyam, Jane        Butler, P        13%        4%   
    Glorious Dane        19:30        Wolverhampton        Walford, Mark        Camacho, Miss J A                   
    Drakey Boy        20:30        Wolverhampton        Turner, W G M        West, Adam                   
    Amelias Dance         15:10        Plumpton        McCain Jnr, D        Walford, Robert                   


Back to Flat strike rates

Harris, M F since 2019
9/10
2/13 9/1
1/7 33/1
3/12 28/1
12/12 50/1

all at Bath though
Report knot in wood October 19, 2020 8:50 AM BST
bit short odds for this thread but gone/going in again on SFUMATO in the 5.30 at wolverhampton.

didn't think the surface would suit LTO at southwell and then nearly getting knocked over leaving the stalls finished what chance he had,william buick let him coast home thereafter.

now down to a 0-60 and racing over 7f which i feel is his optimum trip around wolves with a nice middle draw, famous last words but if he cannot go close in this we struggling.

around 6-1 at the mo.

good luck with any bets today.
Report RyanWe October 19, 2020 2:31 PM BST
I thought that Troed Y Melin looked over priced in the 4.00 at Exeter tomorrow at 8/1

Two really solid seconds last season, and he’s only a pound higher. Maybe 19f will be sharp for him, but there are question marks surrounding those ahead of him in the market.
Report knot in wood October 19, 2020 3:05 PM BST
well done on the winner at wincanton last thursday ryan.

you should have a double awful ride on that leostar, he must have thought there was another circuit to go Laugh
Report PHS October 19, 2020 4:39 PM BST
Tue Switchers

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike   
    Thoughtfully         16:50        Yarmouth        Jarvis, W        Sly, Mrs P                   
    Sure Im Your Man         13:50        Newcastle        Charlton, R        Candlish, Jennie                   
    Spartan Fighter        15:00        Newcastle        Carroll, D        Brittain, Antony                   
    Calonne         16:10        Newcastle        Levins, J F        Harker, G A                   
    Sarayaat         16:40        Newcastle        Fanshawe, J R        Scott, George                   
    Raabeh        17:10        Newcastle        Meehan, B J        Brittain, Antony                   
    Windy Writer         13:10        Exeter        England, Sam        Young, Maxwell        14%        #N/A   
    Tango du Roy         13:10        Exeter        Williams, Evan        Hawke, N J        12%        12%   
    Kiruna Peak         13:10        Exeter        OBrien, Fergal        Brennan, F J        17%        9%   
    Simple Words         13:40        Exeter        OBrien, Joseph Patrick        Frost, J D        11%        7%   
    Out By Six         13:40        Exeter        Crawford, S R B        Oshea, J G M        8%        8%   
    Troed Y Melin         16:00        Exeter        Frost, J D        Honour, Chris        7%        #N/A   
Report RyanWe October 19, 2020 6:03 PM BST

Oct 19, 2020 -- 3:05PM, knot in wood wrote:


well done on the winner at wincanton last thursday ryan.you should have a double awful ride on that leostar, he must have thought there was another circuit to go


I’m still seething over that one, it really wasn’t good

Report RyanWe October 19, 2020 6:05 PM BST
Casper Court at 11s in the 1.10

I think the stable have turned the corner, and got some well handicapped beasts. Jock has to be a massive positive in this race as I don’t know the others, most haven’t ridden before under rules
Report pumphol. October 19, 2020 7:10 PM BST
Purple Knight - 4.10 New 20/1

Just the one hcp run when well beaten 3 weeks back in class 4 over 10 furlongs, only decent run was time before when beaten 2 lengths on tapeta at Wolver by a now  100 rated horse, the second won next time out & is rated 85, drops dropped 5lb & two grades to a class 6 & back to a mile, first time tongue tie & hopeful of something better back on tapeta.
Report PHS October 19, 2020 11:03 PM BST
PHS31 Jul 20 09:54Joined: 16 May 03 | Topic/replies: 10,747 | Blogger: PHS's blog
Fri Switchers

No solid pointers but Stephens is 1-2-3. All three runners came from hard acts to follow in Sir Mark and Tregoning. Changing the country to IRE reveals that Murphy is very poor with a 3.7% strike rate. Drawn 11 over 7f though, I won't be having a go.


For my sins, I've been tempted in. Well it is more than double the opening price and stall 6 is out - Our Shakila 30/1 ew 1234 if 12 run. Not much pace stopping her getting across from 10 wide gives her a chance. £3.5k is decent prize money for 0-67 beasts, so maybe they'll be going for it.


Not been keeping up with the AW, but just noticed this won NTO at 28/1 (43.48 BFSP) Angry.
Report RyanWe October 20, 2020 9:06 AM BST
Jodean was certain to be on that one PHS Laugh
Report rekab October 20, 2020 10:34 AM BST
GrinLaugh
Report PHS October 20, 2020 10:50 AM BST
They'd been holding up Araka Li (15:10 Yar) in his first 3 races this year but he's too keen, so they changed tactics 2 runs back at Hamilton, where he led at what looked a strong pace. He was beaten 1.25L by Viceregent but still stayed on strongly. Viceregent was 2nd only beaten a Nse in a much better race yesterday.

As a result of those early races where he was held up, he's now dropped from 70 to 59, and is looking very well handicapped, particularly if new tactics suit (probably didn't stay up 3f in trip LTO). The absence of nr Lottie Marie, a potential rival for the lead looks a positive.

Backed in from 22/1 to 14/1 this morning.
Report jodean October 20, 2020 10:51 AM BST
Only a micro bet Laugh
Report RyanWe October 20, 2020 12:01 PM BST
CryLaugh
Report jodean October 20, 2020 1:16 PM BST
Nice winner Cool
Report FOYLESWAR October 20, 2020 1:16 PM BST
superb, ryan thanks .
Report rekab October 20, 2020 1:16 PM BST
The Maestro strikes again. Well done Ryan. Happy
Report PHS October 20, 2020 1:46 PM BST
WD RyanCool Blimey 3/1 SP!
Report RyanWe October 20, 2020 1:48 PM BST
Easy guyschs
Report RyanWe October 20, 2020 1:49 PM BST
But the secret to my success is to never enjoy a win, plus it didn’t win by the 20 lengths as expected, so it was very disappointing.
Report PHS October 20, 2020 3:15 PM BST
Blimey, Borodin 33/1 into 4/1Shocked
Report PHS October 20, 2020 4:03 PM BST
The winner BORODIN (IRE) appeared to show improved form, compared with its previous run at Pontefract on 17 September 2020 where the gelding finished fifth of seven, beaten by 10 ¼ lengths. Sam England’s explanation that BORODIN (IRE) benefitted from the re-application of cheekpieces on this occasion, was noted. The gelding was routine tested.
Report rekab October 20, 2020 4:06 PM BST
...and the magic continues. Well done Ryan. Happy
Report PHS October 20, 2020 4:06 PM BST
Awesome tipping RyanCool
Report FOYLESWAR October 20, 2020 4:16 PM BST
at the double ! top tippin ryan thanks !
Report PHS October 20, 2020 4:22 PM BST
Wed Switchers

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike   
    Found Dout        16:10        Kempton        Chamings, P R        Attwater, M J                   
    Pride Of Pemberley         13:25        Fontwell        Snowden, Jamie        Dunger, N A        14%        #N/A   
    Willies Dream        14:00        Fontwell        Westwood, Miss Jesicca        Hawker, Richard        #N/A        5%   
    Van Meegeren         14:00        Fontwell        Slevin, Nigel        Bridgwater, D G        0%        15%   
    Red Devil Star         14:35        Fontwell        Richards, Emma        Wintle, A        #N/A        7%   
    Churchtown Glen         15:45        Fontwell        Winters, Michael        Bryant, Miss M P        #N/A        #N/A   
    Lemon Shoulder         16:23        Fontwell        Skelton, Daniel        Woods, Mrs Cynthia        17%        #N/A   
    Ucanaver        17:30        Fontwell        West, Adam        Honeyball, A J        18%        19%   
    Coachella Green         13:15        Hereford        Bandey, R J        Drinkwater, S W        6%        11%   
    Stay Out Of Court         13:50        Hereford        Pipe, D E        Wintle, A        12%        7%   
    Call Simon         14:25        Hereford        Hobbs, P J        Martin, Miss Nicky        15%        9%   
    Lucky One         15:35        Hereford        Mullins, W P        Nicholls, P F        6%        16%   
    Tb Broke Her         16:15        Hereford        Jukes, Sam        Potter, R D        #N/A        #N/A   
    Miss Mahmite         16:45        Hereford        Snowden, Jamie        Kirby, P A        14%        13%   
    Cup Of Coffee         16:45        Hereford        Bandey, R J        Drinkwater, S W        6%        11%   
Report RyanWe October 20, 2020 4:40 PM BST
Sorry about that one, I thought it was going to be a bit harder to win.
Report jodean October 20, 2020 6:06 PM BST
the premier celtis from Ryan
Report jodean October 20, 2020 6:06 PM BST
font 4.23 16/1
Report jodean October 20, 2020 6:06 PM BST
font 4.23 16/1
Report PHS October 20, 2020 6:28 PM BST
^The Premier Celtic (as prev sel 24/10/18)
Report jodean October 20, 2020 7:05 PM BST
Its his tip PHS , he couldnt post on the forum  for some reason .
Report PHS October 20, 2020 7:08 PM BST
Yeah, I know, but it's Celtic not Celtis.
Report jodean October 20, 2020 7:10 PM BST
forgive me for i have sinned Devil
Report PHS October 20, 2020 7:47 PM BST

Oct 20, 2020 -- 7:10PM, jodean wrote:


forgive me for i have sinned


Grin

Report PHS October 20, 2020 7:53 PM BST
Tue Results

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike        Pos        Odds   
    Thoughtfully         16:50        Yarmouth        Jarvis, W        Sly, Mrs P                                   
    Sure Im Your Man         13:50        Newcastle        Charlton, R        Candlish, Jennie                                   
    Spartan Fighter        15:00        Newcastle        Carroll, D        Brittain, Antony                                   
    Calonne         16:10        Newcastle        Levins, J F        Harker, G A                                   
    Sarayaat         16:40        Newcastle        Fanshawe, J R        Scott, George                                   
    Raabeh        17:10        Newcastle        Meehan, B J        Brittain, Antony                                   
    Windy Writer         13:10        Exeter        England, Sam        Young, Maxwell        14%        #N/A                   
    Tango du Roy         13:10        Exeter        Williams, Evan        Hawke, N J        12%        12%        2        40/1   
    Kiruna Peak         13:10        Exeter        OBrien, Fergal        Brennan, F J        17%        9%                   
    Simple Words         13:40        Exeter        OBrien, Joseph Patrick        Frost, J D        11%        7%                   
    Out By Six         13:40        Exeter        Crawford, S R B        Oshea, J G M        8%        8%                   
    Troed Y Melin         16:00        Exeter        Frost, J D        Honour, Chris        7%        #N/A        1        9/2   
Report FOYLESWAR October 20, 2020 10:39 PM BST
2.45 newmarket ...zacharia 4th behind a decent one in lone eagle  and omaan at goodwood  ,10 pound better off with oman  for just over 5l and the extra 2f and ground  should be fine . 20/1 tops each way could be a bit of value .
Report RyanWe October 21, 2020 9:02 AM BST
Ghutuuurfbj
Report RyanWe October 21, 2020 9:06 AM BST
Finally, Betfair have lifted my ban.

It’s my birthday today, please could everyone wish me a happy birthday as I live a solitary life and need to know my very hard work is worth the social sacrifices I make, thank you.
Report PHS October 21, 2020 9:24 AM BST
Happy Birthday RyanHappy
Report FOYLESWAR October 21, 2020 9:41 AM BST
happy birthday ryan ! the hard work is much  appreciated !
Report foxcovert October 21, 2020 10:46 AM BST
Happy Birthday Ryan, thank you for the tips, another good winner yesterday.
Always try to acknowledge them but for some reason "Post Reply" just doesn't work - and that's when I can actually log on Sad
Report rekab October 21, 2020 10:48 AM BST
Happy Birthday Ryan. Happy Where would all us mediocre gamblers be without all that hard work.Blush
Report sofiakenny October 21, 2020 10:56 AM BST
Happy birthday bro.Happy
Report jodean October 21, 2020 12:12 PM BST
Happy Birthday guesser Wink
Report djx1969. October 21, 2020 12:38 PM BST
Happy Birthday Ryan keep finding the winners mate, only recently come back on the forum didnt realise  some of the old uns post ...
Report RyanWe October 21, 2020 2:15 PM BST
Thank you, this positivity has energised me to make another selection in the race.

Good News at 12/1+

Had to do this horse too as it really does look testing at Fontwell today. He won this race last year by 7 lengths off 5lb lower, and was running a good race on seasonal debut but for making a really bad mistake in the back straight.

There could be something better handicapped in here (hopefully Premier Celtic), but this one is a dour stayer over the trip so he should be involved.
Report Macintoshmatty October 21, 2020 3:06 PM BST
Happy birthday Ryan
Older but I doubt you could be any wiser!
Report PHS October 21, 2020 3:57 PM BST
Thu Switchers

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike   
    Irish Master         20:30        Chelmsford City        Harrington, Mrs John        McEntee, P S                   
    Embour         16:05        Wolverhampton        Hannon , Richard        Carr, Mrs R A                   
    El Guanche         16:05        Wolverhampton        Sanchez, M Delcher        Ferguson, James                   
    Doctor Nuno        17:10        Wolverhampton        Loughnane, Daniel Mark        Carroll, A W                   
    Mid Day Rush         19:15        Wolverhampton        Jardine, I        Carroll, A W                   
    Infinite Sun        12:35        Carlisle        OBrien, Fergal        Waugh, S G        17%        9%   
    Sayar         13:40        Carlisle        Mullins, W P        Kent, Nick        6%        6%   
    Mick Maestro         14:50        Carlisle        King, A        Kent, Nick        11%        6%   
    Pyramid Place         13:47        Lingfield        Gosden, J H M        Harris, M F        #N/A        11%   
    Nevendon        13:47        Lingfield        Bell, M L W        Skelton, Daniel        38%        17%   
    Huntsmans Jog         14:22        Lingfield        Cantillon, D E        OBrien, Fergal        17%        17%   
    Dinos Benefit         16:45        Lingfield        Tizzard, C L        Scott, J        13%        16%   
    Whitlock        13:25        Ludlow        Gosden, J H M        Henderson, N J        #N/A        14%   
    Mayne         13:25        Ludlow        Balding, A M        ONeill, Jonjo        0%        14%   
    Dave And Bernie         15:45        Ludlow        Barry, Michael        Signy, Oliver        #N/A        33%   
    Billys Angel         16:20        Ludlow        Murray, Adrian        Murphy, Amy        0%        19%   
    Hello Fellas         16:53        Ludlow        OBrien, Fergal        Brennan, F J        17%        9%   


OBrien is 21% with switchers running in a Hcp

Henderson is 27% in Non-Hcps
Report PHS October 21, 2020 4:30 PM BST
GeniusCool
Report FOYLESWAR October 21, 2020 4:30 PM BST
brilliant ryan ..........never ever in doubt!
Report madhatters October 21, 2020 4:31 PM BST
Good news day
Report flukes October 21, 2020 4:31 PM BST
Superb stuff Ryan, £4 matched on that winner at 980 Laugh
Report PHS October 21, 2020 4:35 PM BST
In the space of 30secs, I went from feeling clever backing it EW 4 places to hating myself for going EW (usually bet win only).
Report Cork Langer October 21, 2020 4:53 PM BST
Belated happy returns and vwd on all of your recent successful advices
Report djx1969. October 21, 2020 4:53 PM BST
fantastic again Ryan
Report sofiakenny October 21, 2020 5:13 PM BST
you da man bruv.Cool
Report PHS October 21, 2020 7:08 PM BST

Oct 21, 2020 -- 4:30PM, FOYLESWAR wrote:


brilliant ryan ..........never ever in doubt!


Grin

Report PHS October 21, 2020 7:54 PM BST
Wed Results

    Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike        Pos        Odds   
    Found Dout        16:10        Kempton        Chamings, P R        Attwater, M J                                   
    Pride Of Pemberley         13:25        Fontwell        Snowden, Jamie        Dunger, N A        14%        #N/A                   
    Willies Dream        14:00        Fontwell        Westwood, Miss Jesicca        Hawker, Richard        #N/A        5%        nr           
    Van Meegeren         14:00        Fontwell        Slevin, Nigel        Bridgwater, D G        0%        15%                   
    Red Devil Star         14:35        Fontwell        Richards, Emma        Wintle, A        #N/A        7%                   
    Churchtown Glen         15:45        Fontwell        Winters, Michael        Bryant, Miss M P        #N/A        #N/A        nr           
    Lemon Shoulder         16:23        Fontwell        Skelton, Daniel        Woods, Mrs Cynthia        17%        #N/A                   
    Ucanaver        17:30        Fontwell        West, Adam        Honeyball, A J        18%        19%        1        11/8   
    Coachella Green         13:15        Hereford        Bandey, R J        Drinkwater, S W        6%        11%        nr           
    Stay Out Of Court         13:50        Hereford        Pipe, D E        Wintle, A        12%        7%                   
    Call Simon         14:25        Hereford        Hobbs, P J        Martin, Miss Nicky        15%        9%                   
    Lucky One         15:35        Hereford        Mullins, W P        Nicholls, P F        6%        16%                   
    Tb Broke Her         16:15        Hereford        Jukes, Sam        Potter, R D        #N/A        #N/A                   
    Miss Mahmite         16:45        Hereford        Snowden, Jamie        Kirby, P A        14%        13%        3        100/1   
    Cup Of Coffee         16:45        Hereford        Bandey, R J        Drinkwater, S W        6%        11%                   
Report foxcovert October 21, 2020 8:50 PM BST
Happy Birthday top man, no squashed tomatoes and stew but the full beans, sausage on Toast beckons. Great shout.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com