Forums
4 people are following this blog
Overpriced Horses

Newton Abbot 4.00 East Hill

27 Sep 15 15:57
Another 2nd on Saturday, never knew what to expect from the horse, but he was too lit up, and wasted energy from the front. I doubt he ever would of beat the favourite, fair play to the winner, he recorded a time only 2 seconds slower than the hot handicap hurdle with older, seasoned horses - and he carried a stone more than the winner too.

So on to tomorrow, still carrying on with the over priced theme, one will drop sooner or later, and as long as they are going close to winning or ending up in frame, EW or getting out pre-race or in running are doable.

East Hill in the 4.00 at Newton Abbot. Been cut a little already, still 16/1 top price

Very eye catching jockey booking with Coleman being booked, and also the first time blinkers.

The horse has never showed any real form before, but he was just going through the motions in novice hurdles. 3 quick runs, and he made his handicap debut just a few weeks later, I'm thinking he was less than half fit. Showed up OK on his handicap debut, just looked green, he was hanging around the bends.

Given a nice summer break, down to 78. I remember Tizzard sending Ivor's King to this race two years ago, very similar form e.g. none, and although he lost by a head, he won his next 3 handicap hurdles within the month, so not sure how he lost really. I'm sure there was another horse a year before, but I can't find it.

Anyway, boom or bust, could hose up, could come no where, but he's a big enough price to find out.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 342 views ]
Firstly.. Reyno getting done on the line at Worcester today, painful. That would of been a fine start to the blogging campaign given he was 25/1 last night, but there's always one? Oh the ups and downs of racing.

Tomorrow, I've focused on a juvenile Hurdle at Market Rasen (1.40).

I must admit that juvenile hurdlers aren't something that I pay close attention to, as they are largely uncompetitive at this early stage of the jumps season. However, in tomorrow's race, I really think that the favourite, Leoncavallo, has been priced up far too short by the bookmakers. He's a top price 13/8, and if we was to solely base this race on the horse's flat rating, he would only be 4th (66 vs Sikander 82, Duke Street 83, and Cooper 76). This is not to mention the fact that he's got to give 8lb to the two higher rated flat horses. Fair enough he's won his three juvenile hurdlers so far, and he may have improved a ton for jumping, but he has been winning some really poor looking races.

So deciding what to back against him tomorrow wasn't the easiest. Funnily enough, I've actually settled on the horse who hasn't even raced on the flat - Pinkie Brown.

Pinkie Brown is a half bred Irish/French gelding, and the sole run he had was actually in France at Fontainebleau. I'm not terribly familiar with the course, but the form of the race looks decent with the horses around him having ties in listed hurdle efforts at Auteuil. Typically the French bred juvenile form is a lot stronger than our own at this time of year, mainly due to the fact that the French pedigree sees their horses being more mature at an early age - hence why we see a lot of big stables over here buying the French breds and winning the triumph hurdle with them.

I'm just trying to point out that price difference between him (6/1) and the favourite is insane. The handicapper believes that Leoncavallo is 126 rated, so as PB is receiving 8lb from him, he should only need to produce a performance of 118 to finish ahead of him, something I think he's already achieved in France.

Two of the newcomers from the flat - Sikander 82, Duke Street 83 - are also very interesting.

Sikandar is well thought of by Brian Ellison, and is described as a horse who produced really good homework and could be anything. His form has been achieved between 10-12f, so the 16f around Market Rasen should really be the perfect test for his speed. Not to mention he has also been gelded, so he should settle better.

Duke Street has been running over 16f on the flat, so you've got no stamina worries, and you know he should be settled. Dr Richard Newland is for me, one of the best national hunt trainers, and I would expect him to improve this horse, even from a decent trainer like Mark Johnston. I would be worried that the horse will find some of his rivals too speedy tomorrow, and it is also his 16th run of the campaign, so he's not exactly fresh.

I believe there is a big chance that Pinkie Brown (6/1), Sikandar (13/2), & Duke Street (6/1) will end up shorter than their current prices due to how short Leoncavllo is. So take a look at the race, and pick your poison.

Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 464 views ]

Worcester 5.15 Reyno 25/1

24 Sep 15 22:25
I've noticed that not many us thee blog facility these days, and I've not done one for over 4 years but let see's what I can do with some over priced horses over the sticks. Whether you just like a tickle on bigger prices, or like back to lays, hopefully there is something for everyone.

Worcester 5.15 Reyno 25/1

This is a horse I'm quite familiar with from last season. He had a few good runs, probably his Huntingdon 3rd behind Derrintogher Bliss was the pick over 21f, but he didn't see it out. I've always been questioning his attitude with some of his finishing efforts, or how he runs on after the race has already finished, but apparently he's had a wind op since he's been off so maybe that is explains his frustrating finishing effort. Moreover, now the first time tongue tie and blinkers are on tomorrow, which will hopefully push him that extra mile.

The horse might be a dog, but I'm thinking if there is any time you are going to give this horse a chance, it is going to be tomorrow after all the different changes. Hopefully he will be backed by connections, or just word of mouth.

If he doesn't get backed pre-race, hopefully he will make the running - something he's often done, and something he should do at this shorter trip of 16f, and why else stick the blinkers on him.

Pied Du Roi is my idea of the most likely winner, but I'm in no rush to play him given the book% is only around 125% on the exchange at the moment.

Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 371 views ]
                                                                July 28th

Stratford

3.20 Handicap Chase (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-95) Winner £2,599 13 runners 2m7f Good To Firm

Gem Mill made most of the running, taken over at various points by his rivals as he seemingly hit his customary flat spots. He could only manage 2nd in the end, but it was a game effort nonetheless.

Springaway, aged 12, hasn’t stood much racing under rules these past few years, and hadn’t shown a great deal this season, but he seemed more than motivated today to put his best foot forward, although I’m struggling to explain the sudden improvement in his form.

Pharaon De Touzaine had never proven to stay today’s trip in the past, and the way he travelled again today before not finding much when under pressure would suggest that nothing has changed. He could still prove competitive at 2m 4f like his win last time out.

Tuesday’s Child was a big eyecatcher LTO in a amateur handicap hurdle when in all honesty he should have won, but only managed 2nd after the jockey seemingly went for home too soon. Today he travelled really well again, and jumped his fences really well, but just seemed to fade out as if something was a miss. He’s not getting any younger at 12, but I still think he’s got a race in him.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3.55 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-125) Winner £4,549 11 runners 2m110y Good To Firm

Sansili led and dominated for another win, shrugging off a 7lb penalty in the process. The breathing op has worked the oracle for this 4 year old, although I the authority of his success is getting narrower, and narrower, so I don’t think he’ll have that many more races in him with his rising mark.

The Tiddly Tadpole stayed on well to get 5th after momentarily getting outpaced, and he is definitely worth another go at further. I’m not so sure he’s that well handicapped anymore after he got punished for winning a poor novice hurdle, and his best efforts have been around Cartmel, so he’s naturally disadvantaged at any other track, but it’ll be interesting to see where he turns up next.

There wasn’t much effort by the jockey on Whispering Wind, and this was the 1st time this season that the horse actually managed to keep up with the pack. He ended up tailing off, and I’m sure the handicapper will put him down a good few lbs again. He’s going to be well handicapped before long based on his Irish form, and I can’t help feel that they are just going through the motions with the horse at the moment. He’s one to look out for in the future.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.30 Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110) Winner £3,249 7 runners 2m4f Good To Firm

This race was full of horses on stiff looking marks, and some dodgy jumping to boot too.

Morestead made the running and was in front everywhere bar the line. He was really unlucky to be honest, but given his inconsistent profile, I’m not sure he’ll be able to produce the same performance again.

Majy D’Dauteuil came with a late rattle to deny the front runner. He’s struggled off similar marks before in the past, and this will now push him even further, he’ll be worth taking on at a short price.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eyecatchers so far
Baan (July 21st)
Cloudy Dawn (July 22nd)
Fashionable Gal (July 25th)
House Of Bourbon (July 25th)
Bahr Nothing (July 25th)
Mezarat (July 26th Worcester)
Brompton Brow (July 27th Perth)
Tuesday’s Child (July 28th Stratford)
Whispering Wind (July 28th Stratford)
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 435 views ]
                                  July 27th

Perth

2.20 Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £1,949 6 runners 2m110y Good To Firm

Only 3 out of the 6 originally entered for the race turned out for this novice hurdle, probably due to the fact that the ground had firmed up since they raced yesterday. However, it still saw the original first 3 in the betting race and saw Brave Beauty sent off as the evens favourite.

Brave Beauty, a 7 year old mare who had won her 2 previous novice hurdles (3 miles, and 2miles 5) raced straight off in to the lead and led at a good gallop. Wild Geese a last time out winner himself was struggling from half way and didn’t jump with much fluency.

This left it down to Brave Beauty and That’ll Do Nicely to fight out the finish. However, That’ll Do Nicely never got closer than 5 lengths, and the likeable mare Brave Beauty completed the treble on this step down in trip with some ease. I’m not sure if the handicapper will leave her alone on her current mark of 125. If he judges this easy win over a 113 rated rival whilst giving away 14lb, then it wouldn’t surprise me to see her go up to 130 – which would be ridiculous because I really don’t believe that the 2 horses she beat today are worthy of their respective marks.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.05 Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £3,798 7 runners 2m4f110y Good To Firm

Another small field turnout that saw five horses go to post. Storm Prospect made the rest of the running after Big Burrows departed with his jockey early on.

They went a pretty sedate gallop, and only started to race in the final half mile coming in to the home straight. Quechua Des Obeaux hadn’t really shown anything under rules, although he did win a point to point not so long ago, but he did hit the front and looked dangerous before making a bad mistake at the 2nd last.

Steel Magnate then took the lead and jumped the last with a one length advantage and looked good for all money. However, he couldn’t fend off the challenge of the well waited Adrianeo, although it was reported after the race that the saddle had slipped, which might have prevented him from holding on. Adrianeo was given a good ride from Timmy Murphy, but I’m sure the handicapper will have his say and he’ll struggle against anything remotely well handicapped - such was the strength of the race.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.40 Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £2,532 10 runners 2m4f110y Good To Firm

Another non runner ravaged race. The pace looked moderate, and like most races today a Perth, they only started to race turning in to the home straight.

The finish was fought out between Solway Star, and Swiss Guard. The latter travelled the best, but didn’t find much for pressure over this step up in trip. I’ve learned from the horse’s previous performances that he often does the same over shorter trips, so I wouldn’t necessarily say he didn’t stay today, and he ran a decent enough race to get second.

There wasn’t really much form to recommend the winner Solway Star, but he showed that his 3rd in a seller last time out was no fluke, and he capitalised on his handicap mark that the handicapper chose to leave the same although he did race 4lb out of the handicap. Considering he has room for improvement in the jumping department, he might be able to pick up another poor quality handicap.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5.15 Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) Winner £2,532 6 runners 3m110y Good To Firm

Another disappointing turnout to end the card, with the race seemingly a match between Brompton Brow and Banellie, and it ended up that way with them both duelling for the lead coming in to the home straight.

Brompton Brow travelled the best and asserted his authority after pinging the final hurdle for a comfortable success. This was his 1st step in to handicap company, and the step up to 3 miles was right up his street, especially as a point to point winner. I think he can more than pay his way in the future and if the handicapper doesn’t go crazy, he should have a good chance of following up.

Banellie has been knocking on the door in handicap company, on both sides of the Irish Sea, so he adds some substance to the form, and will probably be able to find an opportunity to win sooner or later.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eyecatchers so far
Baan (July 21st)
Cloudy Dawn (July 22nd)
Fashionable Gal (July 25th)
House Of Bourbon (July 25th)
Bahr Nothing (July 25th)
Mezarat (July 26th Worcester)
Brompton Brow (July 27th Perth)


Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 464 views ]
                                                             July 26th

Worcester

5.55 Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £2,079 8 runners 3m Good

Shake the Barley enforced the pace and nothing significant of note really happened until they came in to the home straight where he soon gave way to the front 2 in the market: Escudero & CºCk Of The Rock.

Escudero looked slightly under pressure coming round in the bend but found plenty for pressure and won with a little bit in hand today. He’s currently rated 120 over hurdles, and that looks more than fair at the moment, but who’s to say the handicapper won’t put him up a few lbs. I’m sure he’ll prove to be even better over fences in the future, especially in staying handicap chases.

CºCk Of The Rock, a two time bumper winner, made a really encouraging hurdling debut under the Champ McCoy but he just wasn’t quite good enough to beat the favourite. You wouldn’t have known this was his 1st start over hurdles, as he jumped perfectly well. He also looked to get the step up in trip by a mile fine, and I’m sure he’ll be picking up a novice hurdle before long.

Akbabend stayed on for 3rd, but he looked to be struggling quite far out. His attitude is of definite concern and it wouldn’t surprise me to see connections stick some sort of headgear on.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.25 Handicap Chase (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-90) Winner £1,916 11 runners 2m Good

Nesnaas and New Rackheath led together at a fair clip, resulting in the field being quite strung out from the off. New Rackheath soon fought off Nesnaas for the lead and put in some really good jumps down the back straight and legd going in to the home straight.

There must have been at least 7 horses that were in with a chance at the final fence, and it looked like New Rackheath might hold on for the win, but Crack At Dawn stayed on dourly towards the outside and was value for further.

However, the race was lacking in quality, and it’s not a race to get too excited about in the future as the horses all look to be poorly handicapped.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.25 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) Winner £3,087 8 runners 3m Good

This race saw a better quality of horse, although the whole field looked like they were all on career high marks or above their last winning mark.

Both of the horses that came in to the race with lifetime best’s last time out fought out the finish. With Fade To Grey just holding the very progressive Scotsbrook Cloud, and they pulled well clear of the others. It wouldn’t surprise to see both remain competitive, although races for 120+ rated horses at this time of the season are few and far between. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8.25 Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) Winner £3,249 8 runners 2m Good

Oceana Gold made the running, although slowed it up coming in to the home straight and the field bunched up again. He looked vulnerable in moments but this is the best I’ve seen the horse jump, and he won quite comfortably in the end. There could be more to come from the horse, particularly if they use their 7lb claimer to offset some of the rise in the ratings that he’s certain to encounter.

Mibleu is one of those horses that has you tearing your hair out. He attracted a lot of support today, 14/1 in to 5/1, and as he’s had a 60 day odd break, I thought it was possible that he might have been given a wind op. Anyway, he travelled supremely well as is usually the case and looked the likely winner, which can also be said many a time before too, but he just seems to travel within himself and he either 1) couldn’t or 2) didn’t, want to quicken. He’ll win a race sooner or later, but he’s not one to trust implicitly.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8.55 Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+) Winner £1,779 15 runners 2m Good

The Winged Assassin looked to hold an obvious chance on his form and was duly sent off a short priced favourite, but he just didn’t seem to fire today.

Tara Rose, a bumper winner, won on her 1st start over hurdles over this minimum trip and battled on gamely to beat Morning Farewell. This was a really good start to her career, and although it probably only puts her around the 105 mark, she should definitely improve when stepping up in trip.

Morning Farewell has yet to win in 14 starts over hurdles, but he has gone close on numerous occasions. I still think he needs some help from the handicapper to reduce his 105 mark, but he could pick up a weak maiden/novice hurdle.

Mezarat caught the eye on only his 3rd start over hurdles. He might of finished half way down the field, but he showed up well for a long way, and jumps and travels well. He’s definitely got the makings of a horse who could win in the future and I get the impression he’s been half fit in his 3 novice runs(18/1, 50/1, and 40/1 today) and was eased when his chance had gone. It will be interesting to see what sort of mark the handicapper gives him, I’m hoping somewhere around the 80 mark.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Perth

6.35 Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+) Winner £1,949 8 runners 2m4f110y Good

This looked an interesting maiden hurdle on paper. As two winning point to pointers turned multiple bumper winners clashed over hurdles: Atlanta Falcon & Jive Master. They went a sedate gallop and quickened it up in the final 4-6 furlongs.

The race ended up going to the favourite Atlanta Falcon who was having his 2nd start over hurdles and had the experience edge. But his and Jive Masters jumping left a lot to be desired. They both clearly have the engines to get success in the game, but their jumping was just poor. We can give Jive Master the benefit of inexperience as this was his 1st start over hurdles, but I’m not a big fan of Tim Vaughan’s horses 1st time out over hurdles, they look ill prepared in my opinion.

I’d quite happily take both of these horses on next time out if faced with any horse of competence in the 110+ area.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.05 Novices´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-100) Winner £3,165 6 runners 2m4f110y Good

A small field for this race. Richard Johnson blasted off – which seems a theme of late, just look at House of Bourbon yesterday – and became a sitting duck after some iffy jumping. It was only his 2nd start over fences, but he needs more experience if he is going to win.

The race pretty much fell in to Some Catch’s lap, but he still really impressed me on his 1st start over fences, and will undoubtedly end up higher rated over fences as opposed to hurdles. It’s hard to know what he beat today but there is a lot to like about the way he jumps his fences, very economical and enough scope to see a stride. Unfortunately for us punters he won a bit too easily and is likely to take a hike up the ratings and be over bet on his next start.   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8.05 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-100) Winner £2,532 9 runners 3m110y Good

Patrixbourne the favourite, bowed out early after falling. This 3 mile race pretty much only started to take shape in the final half mile.

Below The Deck hit the front coming in to the straight but was soon a sitting duck after a bad mistake 2 out and was swiftly overtaken by both A Bit Of Fun and Soprano from behind. I’m not convinced this horse quite stays 3 miles, and a drop in trip by a few furlongs wouldn’t hurt based on previous form.

Soprano drew away with A Bit Of Fun and won quite easily in the end. He was almost brought down by the fall of Patrixbourne earlier on in the race. However, he made the most of his declining mark over hurdles, and ran a decent race was on the flat last time out, so it was no surprise to see him win under his capable claimer Henry Brooke. Whether he can build upon this success your guess is as good as mine.

A Bit Of Fun ran a screamer to run the winner so close after a 850 day lay off. He momentarily looked like he was going to win coming to the last hurdle but he just didn’t quite have enough. You couldn’t say he didn’t stay the trip, and maybe he just lacked for fitness. However, caution is advised if he reappears quickly as it might take a bit of time to for him to readjust to racing again. He should have a race in him though.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8.40 Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-130) Winner £4,431 7 runners 3m Good

Scotch Warrior made the running and showed up well for a long way. He was soon overtaken by Sun Tzu coming in to the home straight, who was looking for his 6th straight win.

However, Solway Bay had his measure from 2 out and after a good jump at the last, he won easily. He was on a career high mark today and he was soundly beaten by Sun Tzu last time. However that was his 1st run after a 13 month lay off and he travelled well that day before fitness clearly told. There might just be more to come from this 9 year old.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9.10 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £3,165 13 runners 2m110y Good

With Grace was sent off the short priced favourite due to running in today’s handicap hurdle as an unpenalised winner of a conditional handicap hurdle. She only narrowly held on as the chasing pack chased her after the final hurdle, but she done well to win back down in trip and having only won 7 days ago. She should go on to pay her way as she’s a very game and likeable mare.

Grand Diamond nearly caught her in the end, and is on a nice looking mark at present (only 1lb higher than last winning mark) but is likely to go up a few lb again after today’s performance. Maybe a step up in trip could eek out some more improvement.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eyecatchers so far
Baan (July 21st)
Cloudy Dawn (July 22nd)
Fashionable Gal (July 25th)
House Of Bourbon (July 25th)
Bahr Nothing (July 25th)
Mezarat (July 26th Worcester)

Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 414 views ]
July 25th

Uttoxeter

6.30 Mares’ Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £2,534 12 runners 2m Good

A mares’ novice hurdle kicked off the proceedings and it went the way of the Irish challenger Pretty Valira.

There didn’t appear to be much pace in the race, and they only seemed to race coming in to the home straight which resulted in a bunch finish. Pretty Valira - a daughter of King’s Theatre whose progeny typically prove to be better on quicker ground, and whilst she looked vulnerable coming over the final hurdle she battled on gamely to hold her rivals. However, I don’t believe she’s suddenly improved but she did put her experience to good use, and as a lowly 99 rated horse over hurdles, she doesn’t set much of a standard. The fact a 38 rated horse on the flat in Behest was 2nd to her today would add substance to this argument.

Fashionable Gal was sent off the favourite, which was no surprise because she made such an encouraging debut when winning at Huntingon, and the form of that race had worked out really well, with both the 2nd and 3rd (Bruston – 115) winning since. Moreover, she even came from the flat in fine form after winning a handicap off 75. Unfortunately, her jumping has become really sloppy, and whilst she definitely has the engine to leave today’s form behind, she really needs to brush up on her jumping and may have lost her confidence after falling last time out. Moreover, they keep running the horse in close proximity to her last run, and I’m not sure why they are in such a rush with her.

If the handicapper rated her purely on this one hurdle performance and gave her something like 100 she could easily hose up in a handicap as she’s definitely got the raw ability – she settles and travels so well - to be a lot better.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8.00 Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) Winner £2,975 10 runners 3m Good

Gaelic Flight and House of Bourbon ensured that this race was led at a good gallop, with the rest of the field strung out with a circuit to go.

Unfortunately for them it looked like it played in to the hands of the favourite Knight Woodsman who went at a much more even pace. He previously beat Gem Mill who went on to win next time out as described in the last review of Southwell, and the 10lb rise was not enough to stop this rejuvenated 7 year old. The handicapper might not of caught up with him just yet, as Gaelic Flight, the veteran chaser, came 2nd and he too looks ahead of the handicapper but unfortunately keeps bumping in to better handicapped horses. A step up in trip again might help, and he ran a sound race for a 13 year old considering his last race was only 8 days ago.

House Of Bourbon for me, was the eyecatcher of the race. He travelled and jumped great from the front, but I don’t think the speed dual with Gaelic Flight done him any favours in the end as although he looked to have the field beat turning in to the straight, he had nothing left to give. He might not have won a handicap over fences, but he has won a handicap hurdle off 11lb higher, and there is no reason to believe that he can’t win a race off his current mark. I definitely feel that leading from the front is detrimental to the horse’s success, and if he gets his own way in front, he will win. I imagine the handicapper might drop him a few lbs as he ended up being beat quite far, and as a horse that has a great record at Ffos Las, this is where I would send him.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8.30 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) Winner £2,534 11 runners 3m Good

Folie A Deux and Choumaker made most of the running, although Choumaker was beat early on after some sloppy mistakes.

Jocheski travelled like the winner coming around the bend and kicked on with 3 hurdles to go. However, he didn’t seem to find as much as one would expect and he was joined at the last hurdle and could only manage 3rd. You couldn’t necessarily say he didn’t stay this distance, but I do believe it stretches his stamina, and 2 mile 6 would appear to be his ideal trip.

Moon Melody went on to win the race, and it wasn’t really much surprise after a fine 2nd to Midnight Fun ( who subsequently won against markedly higher rated horses in a novice hurdle on the 21st of June review of Uttoxeter). However, whether he can win off a higher mark I’m not so sure, but he should still prove to be competitive.

Diddley Dee was 15lb higher for a 4 length success, yet that still didn’t stop punters backing him into 7/2 favourite. However, he got going too late (not sure if that was the horse’s fault, but this is what happens with 7lb claimers!), and although I thought a 15lb hike in the weights looked harsh, I think the handicapped got it right. He appears to stay all day, and if they can find a race over further than 3 miles he could still win.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9.00 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-95) Winner £1,689 13 runners 2m Good

Me Fein was apparently the well gambled horse of the day. Given the connections of Barney Curley, it doesn’t take much spark to light this fire, and it’s hard to truly know who is behind the gamble. Who’s to say that the bookmakers haven’t started it themselves? Anyway he never really looked like winning, and his attitude doesn’t impress me.

Bahr Nothing won the race on his 1st start for the Tim Vaughan yard after proving rather friendless in the market. He didn’t particularly look that well handicapped on his performance with Henry Daly, but I think he won with something up his sleeve. The Vaughan horses tend to improve on their 1st start in handicap company too, so considering how friendless he was in the market. I’m inclined to believe that he’s capable of a lot more and is one to watch out for although he’ll probably be prohibited odds in all honesty, but we’ll see.   

Torran Sound was well supported on this step down to 2 miles again, and ran a sound race in defeat. The blinkers really seemed to work for him and it was definitely an improvement on recent performances over hurdles. He was unlucky to bump in to a Vaughan horse, and although he looked like he needed a bit more help from the handicapper, maybe there is a little race in him over this sort of trip, but it doesn’t make much sense as he’s a 2 mile 2furlongs winner on the flat.. which would normally mean he would more likely to be successful over 3 miles on the flat. However, it doesn’t always work like that, but I’m struggling to work this horse out.   

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Eyecatchers so far
Baan (July 21st)
Cloudy Dawn (July 22nd)
Fashionable Gal (July 25th)
House Of Bourbon (July 25th)
Bahr Nothing (July 25th)
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
2 Comments [ 441 views ]
SOUTHWELL

Pretty dire day of jumps action, and pretty uneventful in the handicaps.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2.20 Handicap Chase (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-90) Winner £1,677 9 runners 2m4f110y Good

This was a really average looking race on paper with only 2 of the 9 runners having won in handicap company before.

Gunner Rose (75) took victory and done it quite easily. He didn’t look particularly well handicapped and probably highlights the direness of this race, but it appears the combination of the drop back down in trip and help from the handicapper proved a successful tonic. He’s entered for Stratford in 6 days time, so it wouldn’t surprise to see him running under a 7lb penalty. He’ll probably stand a good chance of winning if he faces opponents of the same calibre as today.

Ginger’s Lad (88) ran a sound enough race in 2nd, but needs some help from the handicapper or a decent claimer to ease him down the weights as his last win was off 79 and he had a 7lb claimer to further reduce it too.

Cloudy Dawn (77) ended up coming 3rd, but shaped well for a long way after a 119 day lay off before weakening 2 out. This 6 year old winning point to pointer over 3 miles has never raced further than today’s 21f under rules and is surely worth a try over further. Funnily enough his lack of fitness today made it look like he needed shorter, but if the handicapper is willing to relent a bit on his handicap mark then he could win a small race.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2.55 Novices´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110) Winner £2,209 6 runners 3m110y Good

This race looked slightly better on paper than the opener, as most of the field came in to the race with some form. Gem Mill made the race a real slog, and it’s no surprise as he just seems to stay all day.

Gem Mill, such a game horse, was rewarded for his perseverance with a victory even though he was 4lb out of the handicap. All he appears to do is stay all day, and although he always has these moments where he looks vulnerable, today was the day he broke the sequence of 2nds. Interestingly his sole win beforehand was achieved with a light weight of 10st 2lb, but I’m not sure if carrying bigger weights have stopped him in the past. He has 2 options in the next 7 days to run with a penalty, but he’s had some hard races lately and is going to need a break sooner or later. I think we will definitely see some more improvement from the horse once he goes over even further.

Horseshoe Reef looked like he actually hit the front in the home straight, but put some sloppy jumps in which prevented him from winning. He can pick up a small race in due course if cutting out the errors.

Tucumcari ran a strange sort of race. At moments he looked like he was travelling really well, then not, then well again, maybe they were just some ‘flat spots’. He also held every chance before weakening, and then running on again late on. I think he needs some help from the handicapper.

Calypso Bay was effectively 10lb ‘well in’ for his 1st start over fences. Unfortunately for the horse he wasn’t aware of this, and it’s no surprise that he was very novicey over some of his fences. I’m not sure he’s got what it takes to be better over fences, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back over hurdles.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4.40 Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £2,053 7 runners 2m Good

A galvanising ride from McCoy saw Sharadiyn record his 1st success over hurdles  beating the short priced favourite Pippa Greene.

Sharadiyn hasn’t exactly set the hurdling world alight with his handicap performances and is only rated 98, so I think it’s really disappointing that Pippa Green couldn’t win today after a really promising hurdling debut.

I don’t particularly feel like PG was in love with these fixed brush hurdles and his inexperienced showed. Moreover, the horse could definitely settle a lot better. Maybe handicaps are in mind. I’d like to think PG will turn out to be a lot better than 100 rated over hurdles with experience, and I think he will improve with a step up in distance too considering he was a decent middle distance horse on the flat.

Working Class Hero was running a nice enough race back in 3rd on his hurdling debut before falling, but I’m not sure he would of improved on this position.

Sharadiyn set a low standard, so it was quite a disappointing that something else in the field couldn’t win.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5.15 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £2,053 9 runners 2m Good

Another race that many thought would be at the mercy of the ‘well in’ Hi Tide. However, either the 7lb penalty was too much, or it was a race too soon as he never really threatened. To rub salt in to the wound, he’s due to go up another 7lb, so it all looks very harsh.

Crosby Jemma won the race, who was previously stuffed by Hi Tide. Yet she was finally able to capitalise on her declining mark and stick her head in front, although she didn’t win as far as she looked like she might approaching the final hurdle. Whether she can build upon this performance, who knows, but she’s not one I’d want to take a short price about.

Lady Anne Nevill was only narrowly denied but she’s not hiding anything from the handicapper.

Rampant Ronnie was back in 3rd, and has been creeping back up the handicap after some decent efforts. He needs the handicapper to relent, or stick a claimer back on.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Eyecatchers so far
Baan (July 21st)
Cloudy Dawn (July 22nd)

I believe the next UK mainland jumps action is on Monday evening at Uttoxeter.. so hopefully I will be able to post a review sometime soon after that.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 424 views ]
Relcome to Ryanwe's Rorld Of Ritish Rumps Racing.

I have decided to conduct a review of each day's jump racing as an avid gambler of racing 'over the sticks'. Some may know me from 'this is for people who like tips as they like racing and dont study form..' thread which on the horse racing forum, you can't miss it. I also run MANL - A NAP League on the 'your competitions' forum which has a different twist to usual NAP competitions. I won't go in to all the rules, but the main difference is that you are allowed to take a bookmakers price before noon as opposed to settling bets at the SP. We have completed 10 months so far, and it's going well, we've probably had around 50+ different people competing in the league at different times, but 18 are standing their ground at the moment.

I am also currently leading the competition overall, and since graduating from University 2 years ago I have solely made a living punting on horse racing. I don't trade, and I rarely back horses EW. I am bordering on deluded with regards to my abilities in winning in the long run as I've been doing it so consistently for the past 2 years. So if any of this motivates you to read my analysis a little bit more then welcome aboard, and now I can breathe out and retract my chest puffing! [smiley:crazy]

Anyway, as originally stated.. I have decided to conduct a review of each day's jump racing. I'm not doing every race, but I shall do the majority. Some races will include more analysis than others due to their sheer appeal. These opinions are my own, I don't have access to the RP analysis, and I'm going to be a lot more crude with my opinions as I think I can get away with them, so hopefully I can pinpoint any skullduggery or future plots without any consequences. I shall also add horses to my eyecatchers section.

Uttoxeter was today the focus of my attention.

Uttoxeter

2.20 Novice Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £2,209 8 runners 2m6f110y Good
Midnight Fun (11-2) won the race (7/1) beating Aghill (11-5) by 3 lengths, although she was value for further - such was her dominance. I thought she had a lot to do on the bare form regardless of the ease of her two wins in handicap company before (last was off 89), and today she faced such opponents who the handicapper believed to be much higher: Aghill 118, and Oasis Knight 130.

I noticed that Midnight Fun wore earplugs in the paddock and was taken to post early, I’m not sure if this was evident in her other wins, but maybe this is why she has suddenly got her act together, and I guess she must be highly strung.

It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does with this 6 year old mare’s handicap mark. I’m going to guess that he’s going to put her up to the 120 mark, wtf the trainer was thinking putting her in this race, I’ve absolutely no idea, because she could have easily of won a few more handicaps before she got to this mark.

I think there are huge doubts surrounding the handicap marks of both Aghill(118) and Oasis Knight(130).
  Aghill won a handicap off 102 easily by 9 lengths on his 1st start for Lawney Hill. He was subsequently put up 16lb for this win, which is really harsh in my opinion as he beat loads of horses who are stuck in no man lands with regards to their handicap marks. I think the horse would probably prove competitive off 110, but his new mark of 118 would definitely leave me to take him on in the future.
  Don’t get me started on Oasis Knight, there is no way this horse is going to be competitive off 130 regardless of giving away 7lb today. I’m not even sure if he would be competitive off 110 and is clearly flattered by one performance.

With the above findings, I reckon Midnight Fun should be around the 115 mark, but she might prove to be competitive off 120 although I’m not convinced.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2.50 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-95) Winner £1,689 12 runners 2m Good
Strange race. Golden Dream travelled well then appeared to get outpaced a few furlongs from home before appearing to ‘outstay’ his main rival Goat Castle. I guess it’s no surprise this happened as he is a multiple ptp winner over 3 miles. He’s got an entry in the next few days, again over the same course and distance, and maybe he’ll turn up with a 7lb penalty. I’m not sure how much longer this horse will get away with running at this distance, or if he can really defy a 7lb penalty as I’m not really sure what he beat today.

Goat Castle travelled supremely well, and definitely looked the winning coming in to the home straight and even half way up the straight. To the naked eye it looked as if Sam TD went for home too soon, as he kicked a few lengths clear but was then caught before the final hurdle. Maybe this is as good as the horse is, but in hindsight maybe he should of held on to him for a lot longer.

Mister Fantastic might be worth a step up in trip, but I think he’s poorly handicapped and the handicapper is slow in dropping him and won’t be in a rush to after today.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3.30 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £2,339 10 runners 2m4f110y Good
Bathwick Man led at a really good pace, and looked to have all bar one, Sansili the winner in trouble coming in to the home straight, but he looked knackered jumping the 2nd last and possibly went off too quick with the visor on. This almost suicidal pace really seemed to suit Sansili though, who stays further, and he’s gone close to winning off around this mark in the past 10 months or so, so I guess it’s no surprise.

I think the rest are on stiff looking marks. O Callaghan Strand looks like he’s done his winning for a while, although Baan for me is a very interesting horse, as I’m convinced he will prove to be a lot more competitive over further, possibly 3 miles. He’s had a 10lb claimer on for his last 2 starts, and as this no sort of professional write up, I can say that I think he’s been pretty useless on his only 2 starts as a rider under rules.. Who has looked absolutely knackered coming to the end of the races (I’m still talking about the jockey, not the horse!), but the horse has run on well. He might be taking away 10lb, but he’s adding about 15lb with his incompetence (haha!). One to keep an eye out for in the future.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4.40 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-95) Winner £1,689 11 runners 2m Good
Loads of Nonners in this race, no idea why either. Anyway, the JP Mcmanus/McCoy horse was well fancied (A Stones Throw), and subsequently won quite easily in the end. Just another typical summer handicap hurdle race in my opinion: a poor bunch of horses who look poorly handicapped. I’ll definitely look to take this horse on in the future if there is anything remotely well handicapped.

Claude Carter  did look like he might win for a moment or two, but he just didn’t have enough to repel the favourite.

The others look a bit useless.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5.10 Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £2,975 5 runners 2m Good
Mister Matt won this quite comfortably in the end, but what did he beat? Dean’s Grange looked the likely winner (this isn’t the 1st time, and it won’t be the last!) jumping 2 out, and even coming to the last, so no surprise he went 1.15 in running. He really doesn’t seem to be able to quicken off the bridle, I can’t believe they haven’t tried running the horse in some headgear. Maybe they’ve tried at home, but we haven’t seen it on the racecourse.

Meagre bunch of horses in behind, and I’ll look to take on Mister Matt NTO in all probability. As for Dean’s Grange, he could become one of those “follow over a cliff” horses, and caution is necessary.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eyecatchers
Baan


Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 371 views ]

www.betfair.com