RyanWe

Relcome to Ryanwe's Rorld Of Ritish Rumps Racing.

I have decided to conduct a review of each day's jump racing as an avid gambler of racing 'over the sticks'. Some may know me from 'this is for people who like tips as they like racing and dont study form..' thread which on the horse racing forum, you can't miss it. I also run MANL - A NAP League on the 'your competitions' forum which has a different twist to usual NAP competitions. I won't go in to all the rules, but the main difference is that you are allowed to take a bookmakers price before noon as opposed to settling bets at the SP. We have completed 10 months so far, and it's going well, we've probably had around 50+ different people competing in the league at different times, but 18 are standing their ground at the moment.

I am also currently leading the competition overall, and since graduating from University 2 years ago I have solely made a living punting on horse racing. I don't trade, and I rarely back horses EW. I am bordering on deluded with regards to my abilities in winning in the long run as I've been doing it so consistently for the past 2 years. So if any of this motivates you to read my analysis a little bit more then welcome aboard, and now I can breathe out and retract my chest puffing! [smiley:crazy]

Anyway, as originally stated.. I have decided to conduct a review of each day's jump racing. I'm not doing every race, but I shall do the majority. Some races will include more analysis than others due to their sheer appeal. These opinions are my own, I don't have access to the RP analysis, and I'm going to be a lot more crude with my opinions as I think I can get away with them, so hopefully I can pinpoint any skullduggery or future plots without any consequences. I shall also add horses to my eyecatchers section.

Uttoxeter was today the focus of my attention.

Uttoxeter

2.20 Novice Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £2,209 8 runners 2m6f110y Good
Midnight Fun (11-2) won the race (7/1) beating Aghill (11-5) by 3 lengths, although she was value for further - such was her dominance. I thought she had a lot to do on the bare form regardless of the ease of her two wins in handicap company before (last was off 89), and today she faced such opponents who the handicapper believed to be much higher: Aghill 118, and Oasis Knight 130.

I noticed that Midnight Fun wore earplugs in the paddock and was taken to post early, I’m not sure if this was evident in her other wins, but maybe this is why she has suddenly got her act together, and I guess she must be highly strung.

It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does with this 6 year old mare’s handicap mark. I’m going to guess that he’s going to put her up to the 120 mark, wtf the trainer was thinking putting her in this race, I’ve absolutely no idea, because she could have easily of won a few more handicaps before she got to this mark.

I think there are huge doubts surrounding the handicap marks of both Aghill(118) and Oasis Knight(130).
  Aghill won a handicap off 102 easily by 9 lengths on his 1st start for Lawney Hill. He was subsequently put up 16lb for this win, which is really harsh in my opinion as he beat loads of horses who are stuck in no man lands with regards to their handicap marks. I think the horse would probably prove competitive off 110, but his new mark of 118 would definitely leave me to take him on in the future.
  Don’t get me started on Oasis Knight, there is no way this horse is going to be competitive off 130 regardless of giving away 7lb today. I’m not even sure if he would be competitive off 110 and is clearly flattered by one performance.

With the above findings, I reckon Midnight Fun should be around the 115 mark, but she might prove to be competitive off 120 although I’m not convinced.

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2.50 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-95) Winner £1,689 12 runners 2m Good
Strange race. Golden Dream travelled well then appeared to get outpaced a few furlongs from home before appearing to ‘outstay’ his main rival Goat Castle. I guess it’s no surprise this happened as he is a multiple ptp winner over 3 miles. He’s got an entry in the next few days, again over the same course and distance, and maybe he’ll turn up with a 7lb penalty. I’m not sure how much longer this horse will get away with running at this distance, or if he can really defy a 7lb penalty as I’m not really sure what he beat today.

Goat Castle travelled supremely well, and definitely looked the winning coming in to the home straight and even half way up the straight. To the naked eye it looked as if Sam TD went for home too soon, as he kicked a few lengths clear but was then caught before the final hurdle. Maybe this is as good as the horse is, but in hindsight maybe he should of held on to him for a lot longer.

Mister Fantastic might be worth a step up in trip, but I think he’s poorly handicapped and the handicapper is slow in dropping him and won’t be in a rush to after today.

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3.30 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £2,339 10 runners 2m4f110y Good
Bathwick Man led at a really good pace, and looked to have all bar one, Sansili the winner in trouble coming in to the home straight, but he looked knackered jumping the 2nd last and possibly went off too quick with the visor on. This almost suicidal pace really seemed to suit Sansili though, who stays further, and he’s gone close to winning off around this mark in the past 10 months or so, so I guess it’s no surprise.

I think the rest are on stiff looking marks. O Callaghan Strand looks like he’s done his winning for a while, although Baan for me is a very interesting horse, as I’m convinced he will prove to be a lot more competitive over further, possibly 3 miles. He’s had a 10lb claimer on for his last 2 starts, and as this no sort of professional write up, I can say that I think he’s been pretty useless on his only 2 starts as a rider under rules.. Who has looked absolutely knackered coming to the end of the races (I’m still talking about the jockey, not the horse!), but the horse has run on well. He might be taking away 10lb, but he’s adding about 15lb with his incompetence (haha!). One to keep an eye out for in the future.

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4.40 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-95) Winner £1,689 11 runners 2m Good
Loads of Nonners in this race, no idea why either. Anyway, the JP Mcmanus/McCoy horse was well fancied (A Stones Throw), and subsequently won quite easily in the end. Just another typical summer handicap hurdle race in my opinion: a poor bunch of horses who look poorly handicapped. I’ll definitely look to take this horse on in the future if there is anything remotely well handicapped.

Claude Carter  did look like he might win for a moment or two, but he just didn’t have enough to repel the favourite.

The others look a bit useless.

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5.10 Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £2,975 5 runners 2m Good
Mister Matt won this quite comfortably in the end, but what did he beat? Dean’s Grange looked the likely winner (this isn’t the 1st time, and it won’t be the last!) jumping 2 out, and even coming to the last, so no surprise he went 1.15 in running. He really doesn’t seem to be able to quicken off the bridle, I can’t believe they haven’t tried running the horse in some headgear. Maybe they’ve tried at home, but we haven’t seen it on the racecourse.

Meagre bunch of horses in behind, and I’ll look to take on Mister Matt NTO in all probability. As for Dean’s Grange, he could become one of those “follow over a cliff” horses, and caution is necessary.

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Eyecatchers
Baan