RyanWe

Firstly.. Reyno getting done on the line at Worcester today, painful. That would of been a fine start to the blogging campaign given he was 25/1 last night, but there's always one? Oh the ups and downs of racing.

Tomorrow, I've focused on a juvenile Hurdle at Market Rasen (1.40).

I must admit that juvenile hurdlers aren't something that I pay close attention to, as they are largely uncompetitive at this early stage of the jumps season. However, in tomorrow's race, I really think that the favourite, Leoncavallo, has been priced up far too short by the bookmakers. He's a top price 13/8, and if we was to solely base this race on the horse's flat rating, he would only be 4th (66 vs Sikander 82, Duke Street 83, and Cooper 76). This is not to mention the fact that he's got to give 8lb to the two higher rated flat horses. Fair enough he's won his three juvenile hurdlers so far, and he may have improved a ton for jumping, but he has been winning some really poor looking races.

So deciding what to back against him tomorrow wasn't the easiest. Funnily enough, I've actually settled on the horse who hasn't even raced on the flat - Pinkie Brown.

Pinkie Brown is a half bred Irish/French gelding, and the sole run he had was actually in France at Fontainebleau. I'm not terribly familiar with the course, but the form of the race looks decent with the horses around him having ties in listed hurdle efforts at Auteuil. Typically the French bred juvenile form is a lot stronger than our own at this time of year, mainly due to the fact that the French pedigree sees their horses being more mature at an early age - hence why we see a lot of big stables over here buying the French breds and winning the triumph hurdle with them.

I'm just trying to point out that price difference between him (6/1) and the favourite is insane. The handicapper believes that Leoncavallo is 126 rated, so as PB is receiving 8lb from him, he should only need to produce a performance of 118 to finish ahead of him, something I think he's already achieved in France.

Two of the newcomers from the flat - Sikander 82, Duke Street 83 - are also very interesting.

Sikandar is well thought of by Brian Ellison, and is described as a horse who produced really good homework and could be anything. His form has been achieved between 10-12f, so the 16f around Market Rasen should really be the perfect test for his speed. Not to mention he has also been gelded, so he should settle better.

Duke Street has been running over 16f on the flat, so you've got no stamina worries, and you know he should be settled. Dr Richard Newland is for me, one of the best national hunt trainers, and I would expect him to improve this horse, even from a decent trainer like Mark Johnston. I would be worried that the horse will find some of his rivals too speedy tomorrow, and it is also his 16th run of the campaign, so he's not exactly fresh.

I believe there is a big chance that Pinkie Brown (6/1), Sikandar (13/2), & Duke Street (6/1) will end up shorter than their current prices due to how short Leoncavllo is. So take a look at the race, and pick your poison.