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Some Guesses For.. The Next Few Days
Some Guesses For.. The Next Few Days
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Captainofindustry for me 4-10 Ascot.
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Nothing at fancy prices so far.
Woodford Island in the 3.15 at Haydock - 5/1 generally Played him earlier in the season, at Ascot in a hot looking conditional only race. He finished 3rd, and I wasn't too happy with the ride if I was being honest - I felt like he gave him way too much to do, Masterplan completely stole it by making all. The 2nd, Duke Des Champs is now rated 18lb higher in the handicap, and the form of those in behind have done nothing to harm the form either. If WI hadn't of made a bad mistake at the last, he might of won, who knows. He's running off an OR 7lb higher than that effort, but it's only 3lb higher than his Irish OR, and he ran a cracking 3rd of 21 at the big xmas meeting at Leopardstown over 24f. The biggest positive is Deckie taking over from the claimers, many crab him, but I much prefer his style to most - rarely gives a horse too much to do. Will need to win tomorrow to have any chance of getting in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham, and I feel like he has been brought along slowly, hopefully with that in mind. |
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I don't think I've mentioned my views on the Irish OR mark translated to over here, but to only be 3lb higher is extremely good.
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notice he as already qualified for the pertemps final but as you stated needs a higher rating.
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Billy Dutton in the 4.10 at Ascot - 11/1 generally
I wanted to wait till this morning to see how much rain Ascot had got, I don't think this horse can go on heavy ground. They only had 0.5mm overnight, still soft in places, I think it's looking OK for him, and it doesn't look like I can wait around any more, because he's the most backed horse on the OC pie chart, and the current price on betfair will probably lead the bookies to keep cutting. He's a 10 year old gelding, who returned from a year and a half off from injury to put in two really good performances at Chepstow and Cheltenham. It all depends on how much you rate today's race, I think he can go close on those two runs, he's effectively 3-5lb lower as the 5lb claimer takes over, and I would always prefer my horse to be against lower rated animals than higher. I looked at the 5 year stats for the Chris Down stable and they just seem to come alive at this time of the year, already 1 from 1 this month. |
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Morning early bird
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Alright mate.
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Not much between yours and mine through Sykes Ryan, except the fact it was Billys' first run for 18 mths.
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Yours looks to have a sound EW chance, that 2nd behind Pobbles Bay doesn't look too bad, especially since it would of been on the sharp side for Captain.
It's a really open looking race to me. I think the Pipe favourite is really short, I'm not convinced about that opening mark that he's got, despite him stepping up in trip today. |
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I liked Muhtaris from a handicapping perspective, but I think he's too keen to stay this far, and his jumping really does need to be better, which will be a problem given how many more hurdles he will have to jump today.
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Good luck with Billy Dutton,I have gone for Aigle De La See 9/1,back over hurdles after a not very inspiring few efforts chasing,DJ back on board,he is 2 from 3 when doing the steering,ground is ideal,yet to get the trip,but has the scope to take this imo
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I agree, if Muhtaris was proven at trip, would be half his present price.
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Thank you for Winny Ryan, saved the day
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even though it lost
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It's just occurred to me that by saying "probably Winny" you meant probably at Wincanton, I thought you meant Winston Churchill and backed it at 24, laid all rates down to 1.3 in running, actually went 1.15. A funny old game
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ryans famous for his cryptic messages ....he will enjoy that one
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Never heard wincanton referred to as Winny before, but last year at Uttox, everyone was shouting come on winny when churchill was hosing up. Donny for doncaster, yes, but never Winny.
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sad day yesterday with deputy dan collapsing from a heart attack.
 thought he was travelling strongly turning in but then emptied quickly which surprised me as i anticipated him staying on strongly up the home straight. puts my meager bet into perspective and shows what these brave horses go through to provide us with entertainment,so sad for connections and the stable lad/lass. was not going to bother today but having a small ew on HOW ABOUT IT 3.45 ffos las. more hope than confidence but the 3rd at ludlow would give him a squeak(2nd fourth act won yesterday) and you can forget the last run at kempton came too quick. ground and stable form(couple ran ok yesterday) would be a worry but at around 11-1 might be worth a small ew wager. good luck whatever you dabble with today. |
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Didn't know that about Dan, sad, his aptitude was being besmirched on one thread on here post race.
Yeah, looks dire today KIW. GL with yours. |
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very surprised ffos las is going ahead rob,rained most of yesterday and very damp today.
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It's one of the few tracks I have never been and probably never will. The last weeks been a very good one, maybe time for a break, always poor fare pre Chelters.
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im about a hour away, lovely area but never stops raining.
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Where abouts KIW ? I'm about 1 hour and half
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between brecon and merthyr ellis.
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Not far then,I'm Blackwood
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"tidy" ellis! do you follow any of the local trainers?
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Burchell and Llewellyn but they ain't got much really ,Bradley hit form end of last year but
I like the jumps more than flat |
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Just, Never Equalled in the 1st at fos las for me today. will look to lay it short in running, and prob' lay the jolly ir too as been done really short in 3 of 6 races so far.
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Jolly's stablemate shortening 14 to 8
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1.44 before the 2nd last the fav. but 2nd fav never went below 2.2. very small profit. over and out.
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Just catching up, the Winny thing made me laugh - I wish I could take credit for it
Very sad news about Deputy Dan, thought he was the best horse in the potato race, but either went for home too soon, or just didn't quite stay 3 miles. Well done with Ffos Las. Just waiting for something to present itself. |
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Tuesday The 23rd Guesses
Giving Drive On Lucky a go in the 2.30 - 8/1 with a few firms |
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Drive On Locky*
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One of my favourite angles is low grade switchers from Ireland, and this 9 year old gelding fits the bill.
He won off 91 in Ireland two years ago, but runs off 90 tomorrow at Taunton - 8lb higher than his last Irish run, but that's fair. He's moved yards from Gannon to Johnny Farrelly. I can't say I know much about the previous trainer, she done an OK job with her few horses, but I'm hoping Farrelly can do better. He had a quiet December/January, but he would of been 3 from 11 this month if Kazlian wouldn't of fallen late on at Fakenham, so his horses are definitely starting to fire again. As for the horse's form from this season, they've been running him over 2 miles, and without any head gear. Not sure if they were just trying to get his mark down or not, but the tongie tie and pieces are back on tomorrow, and he steps up to 19f which will help. |
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Am interested to see how Pink Gin performs in the 4.25 Wetherby, Mark Grant on board probably enough to put most off of it and its first run for nearly 2 years offered very little at first look, however, after a couple of viewings I feel there was reason for a little optimism and that it may perform better than the odds of 10/1 imply, just a shame there are only 7 runners.
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I looked closely at Pink Gin LTO, the stable switch looked positive, I remember he done a good job with Valid Point who was an ex Jim Old horse too - Mark Grant also rode.
Could easily seeing it go close today if getting the jumping back on track. ATB Cork. |
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Oscars Prospect. 5-00 Wetherby.
Because of the stables 100% record in bumpers over the last 5 years. one runner one winner |
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seemed a strange ride on drive on locky, jockey never seemed to want too try and get into contention.
good luck cork and rob. |
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The betting was pretty crazy, out to 10/1 about 20 mins or so before the race, no idea what was going on.
Was disappointing, can't take much from that run either. The winner had a wind op, guess that explains all the money. |
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Tomorrow is looking good, hopefully some more price crashing.
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