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Some Guesses For.. The Next Few Days
Some Guesses For.. The Next Few Days
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Tuesday the 16th Guesses
Don't really fancy much today. I've given Suzy's Music a token bash in the 2.20 at Ayr - top price 12/1 A very odd decision to run this 3 mile winning PTPer over 2 miles on her handicap debut last month, or was it? They even held her out the back, with a pretty tender ride from Lynch. She's been dropped 6lb, and the 5lb claimer is on too, so effectively she is 11lb lower today, and she will be stepping up to 20.5f. She could need further help from the handicapper, but given she was only beat 22 lengths on her last run, and we know she has some ability on the November PTP win (Even if she was lucky), then today she should be more competitive. Seems to travel quite well, hopefully nick 5 or 6 points in running on a quiet day. |
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This is a winners thread. Well done to you all, some nice winners.
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good luck ryan...awful days racing.
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Anton Chigurh - 3.05 Southwell 11/2
Very promising run at Chelmsford after nearly 18 months out which was over a mile, drops down tomorrow to Seven now that could be construed as on the tight side but two of its three career wins have been over the distance, best run in 2014 on the flat was over the seven, been jumping & not too shabby with two placed efforts from three races on testing ground, always possible its being geared towards a hcp over the sticks but why put up a 7lb claimer tomorrow giving it a mark of 61 to run off, you have to go back a long way to its second here over C & D off a mark of 80 but a testing seven furlongs here should suit & no reason this cannot go close. |
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Crauchan Ayr 2-20
Wasn't having a bet today, but Ryan's selection's made me look at this race, this seems to be the only one that doesn't get beat a million miles each time, and does get involved in races at some point, his last and worst race was on heavy, soft today which he has won on, albeit 3 years ago off a higher mark than todays. 8/1 seems about right, hopefully take my stake out at about 3. A very very tentative selection. |
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Ha, just noticed it's been much bigger earlier, Oh well.
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I'm starting to wish I never looked at the race, what a monumental drift.
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I'm starting to wish I'd never read your fooking post!
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since I started reading it, been exceptional.
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The layers loved it.
Just trying to keep everyone happy  |
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The late going change didn,t help, soft - heavy, but got my stake back so not a disaster
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Yours was really well supported Rob.
I actually thought it was going to drift out after the rain and blustery conditions. |
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Because I thought the best thing about him today was the fact he was going to get some better ground again.
One to think about next time. |
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Yeah me too, would've been gutted if the second had won, jockey from yesterdays winner was on it, but when I looked it was 75 so didnt bother with it. went 6/4 ir.
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Wednesday The 17th Guesses
Gone for Distant Sound in the 2.25 race at Towcester, 7/1 general This 9 year old gelding always seems to be well fancied, and I always wondered why tbh. The last time we saw him, however, was easily the best performance since joining Grace Harris. He only found the well handicapped Navanman too good, who has subsequently won his next two races in some style, and is now 15lb higher rated. Distance Sound has only gone up 5lb for the defeat, which I think looks really fair considering how far he beat the rest of the field. Why did he improve? I'm not sure, was it the track, was it the blinkers, was it softer ground? He's dropped in trip by 1.5f tomorrow, which also looks ideal given how well he travelled through the race last time. There are loads of other horses in the race that people can make a case for, and I think Kelsey looks interesting too with Deckie on board for the first time. Apparently jumps really well at home, 'straight as a dye', but hasn't looked the prettiest so far. Trainer said he didn't like the ground last time out, first time tongue tie is interesting - so I will have some on him too, 14/1 top price. |
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Up North 5-05 Muss'
1st time up tomorrow. Its 3rd entry this week, taken out other 2 cos of heavy ground, good at moment at Muss, but rain, sleet and snow forecast tonight. Fingers crossed it's wrong. Again selected on stable, breeding and jockey + limited ability of opposition. Form of Selkirks nothing special, Dubai had his debut race in the bag when swerving and unseating, but the horse that benefitted has been well beat half a dozen times since.That leaves Boyhood, another well bred, but because of up norths entries this week, they either want a run in him or think the iron is hot enough to strike. only 5 runners, so price wont be great, maybe 4/1. Not home tomorrow so wont see it win |
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And the final 8 words cant be disputed whatever the outcome
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The exchange is back up again.
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Good morning anybody.
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Hi De Hi
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How did you get so involved with Bumpers, Rob?
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I love the fact that if you find good bumper horses, they are around to follow for years. Unlike the flat, where if they have a good first 2 years, off to stud they go.
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site may be back on, but not working properly, unable to place bets, but stake goes from acccount, then find bets waiting but unable to cancel them.
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I've just been trying, all over the place isn't it.
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Thank you for answering btw.
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Don't bet on the flat myself, so share the same sentiments.
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I do bet on the flat, but it's nowhere near the spectacle that the jumps are. But, I do have favourite flat horses. Jim Goldies Dualar Dhar for example, ran more than a hundred times, and shows a profit to level stakes, still winning at 14 years of age.
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also Ryan, there's not too much homework to do with bumpers, as had very few if any runs, more guesswork really.
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I see your 2 have both shortened up after yesterdays blip.
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Good morning.
REDROB, I noticed Up North was due to run Monday but was withdrawn with a Vets certificate - Coughing (according to the BHA site) Out 2 days after a coughing bout. I'll watch with interest if the horse runs. Good luck to all |
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Hmmm... interesting.
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I've had a quick look through and can't find any other races the horse was entered in to see if the "coughing" caused previous withdrawals. I thought maybe it could have been nearing the end of the problem and the trainer was using that certificate for being a N/R.
I'm not sure how the system works, or even if the trainer is allowed to do that. I'm a little confused tbh. |
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My understanding of the Vet's Cert is that you can run within the next 5 days, where as with A Celf Certificate, you have to wait until after 5 days.
Might be 7 days, but you get the gist. |
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I dont think they would risk running an unraced horse and risk ruining its confidence if not A1.
And which of us have never gone to the docs for a sick note when we didnt feel like going to work  |
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Going changed to soft
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I reckon they thought the other race might of been too hot.
I would look at it as a positive that he pulled it out. |
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That "other race" was the one won by Sam Spinner on heavy, Up North will not go on it. Even soft could be a no no.
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This is quite interesting.
To run today the trainer couldn't have self certified because of the 6 day after the the day it was declared a N/R rule. The Vet has to sign a N/R certificate with details of: Name of horse Trainer name Date of examination Time of examination Place of examination Intended race A declaration of clinical examination Signed and dated If I were cynical, I suppose it's who you know Hope the horse wins for you - Good luck |