Today's thought(s) thread for 2016.....

Good luck therobster.

I like Arthurs Oak, impressive at Haydock last time, ground and the stiff finish at Sandown will suit. Stable in form as well.

Can see why you both like Aurthurs Oak, just think it's a big ask for him today after his 15 lb hike in the weights(at the weights if you know what I mean), but at least looks to be improving with his racing. GL

Good luck with your selection today and also with the thread therobster - good to see a proper thread on the forum.

Bet 2 & 3.  1 1/4 pt E.W. Dawson City 7-1 SJ  & 3/4pt E.W Krackatoa King 16-1 B365 (4-1+feature race) 14.40 Plumpton (Sussex National) both BOG.

Total staked 4pts , write up to follow....

gl robster fancy dawson city myself

that Krackatoa King is a giant!

......Tomorrow Plumpton plays host to the Sussex National, a race that usually ends up  a war of attrition for it's participants in the concluding stages. 14 stand their ground for tomorrow's showpiece, with last years winner Itoldyou back for more, and although he's not in the same form ahead of this years assignment he does look like he's been brought on with the defence of his crown in mind. Gary Moore's a trainer well associated with this contest has Leo Luna entered, who is now able to contest the race with some recent help from the assessor, another who will be a popular choice among punters.

Despite a good few holding reasonable claims to the prize, my idea of the winner is the Polly Gundry trained Dawson City, who is ridden by the evergreen Andrew Thornton. I know that older horses seem to do well in this race, which doesn't bode that well for the chances of a 7yrold first season novice, but I just think he could well turn out to be quite a smart staying chaser, certainly better than his current mark of 125. Tomorrow is only his 3rd chase start, with his first being back in November at Exeter in a really warm contest in which he finished a respectable 3rd given the circumstances. Fletchers Flyer chased home Onenightinvienna in that particular race, those two horse extremely high class recruits to the chasing scene and could possibly both turn up at Cheltenham. His next start was a class 3 novice handicap over a testing 3 miles on Heavy ground at Chepstow, taking on a couple of Lto winners in both Kingswell Theatre & Buckhorn Timothy, both winning those previous races with varying degrees of authority.  Dawson City  disputed the lead from flag fall that day, and despite his lead being a disputed one it did not worry him regards his jumping, fencing superbly for the majority of the contest. Andrew Thornton gave him a kick in the belly a good 6-7 furlongs from home, a sure indicator that stamina was not an issue, and Imo having been slightly tapped for toe as they turned in he was galloping on strongly and in command of the situation when put off by the loose horse which ultimately unseated Mr Thorton from the plate just after the third last.

If he had of stayed up Imo he would have won, if that was the case he would not have been eligible for tomorrows contest as that would have lumbered him with a 7lb penalty as per race conditions. Tomorrow's stamina sapping test could be right up his street and he won't mind the ground, and with so few miles on the clock at his age you would assume there could be any amount of progress to be made, tomorrow could be a stepping stone to much bigger and better things for this lad.


Dawson City was going to be my sole selection in tomorrow's race, but just couldn't help having a little something on Krackatoa King, who is a real colossus, looking every inch a chasing type. He made his seasonal reappearance mid November over 3 miles at Exeter, where he put in a reasonable display of fencing on his debut in this sphere. The race was run at a crawl, which would not have played to his strengths, but looked in need of it regardless of where he would have finished should it have been a decent gallop. Noel Williams looks to have his limited string in good order presently, with his jockey James Banks also enjoying some moral boosting winning form ahead of tomorrows race. James still claims a 3lb allowance, with such a claimer being responsible for winning 3 out of the last 6 renewals. Krackatoa King may not have the form in the book that entitles him to be in the thick of things as his current odds would suggest, however I think he has the raw potential to end up quite a nice chaser, and has at least been given a fair bit of slack by the assessor having had that pipe opener, and with the slippage on his mark the first time blinkers being enlisted to also aid his cause.

GL if you get involved.

You may have a point poorpup, think skinto was having the same problem... I may just abbreviate in my future posts, ta

Great write up robster...cant fault your effort & time

Results bet 2&3

Dawson City N/R       0pts
Krackatoa King N/R    0pts

Running total       -2pts (-£20)

2pts E.W. Le Reve 15.10 Kempton, 13-2 generally ( I'm on with B365 at 6-1 4-1+offer), use a BOG firm.

Today's 15.10 at Kempton at first glance looks quite a competitive little race for this nature, however it took me no time at all in terms of going through the race to opine that it's probably between only a few that are scheduled to run.

I'll be perfectly honest, I was immediately drawn to Le Reve, and made him my starting point in working through form, trying to ascertain if anything in the line up capable at today's weights pre-race of beating him.

I eliminated both Chase The Spud & Master Hill from my reconings quite quickly, the mere fact both were targeted at a much more stamina laden tests than this(balloted out of Welsh National) quite pivotal in my thoughts, that along with a resonating comment Colin Tizzard made regards the latter of those pair in relation to Newcastle's 3 miles in soft not playing to his strengths is all I needed to know. Despite the mud flying today and the fact Shangani looked to be staying on Lto prior to slipping up at a crucial stage Lto over C/D he too was scratched, I for one not entirely convinced he will get this 3 mile on much deeper ground than that of his previous race. Those sentiments echoed regarding the chances of both Poole Master and stable switcher Seafood, it will also be interesting to see if the other stable switcher Kruzalin is capable of seeing things out in such deep ground, at 7-2 I'm not prepared to take the chance. Harry Farewell was a more interesting contender, given he looks like he will appreciate a testing enough 3 miles, but with getting no further than the first Lto in the race Shangani slipped up in I will watch his progress in the ranks with interest.

Have made these pre-empted assumptions about the challengers nothing really could shake me from having a bet on Le Reve, who, in this line up is most definitely the class act in the race. The poundage was applied to his mark as a second season in this sphere, with his last 3 runs of his latest campaign producing a nice win in a decent class 2 handicap at the end of January at Sandown, a very decent 2nd to Rocky Creek over today's C/D mid February, his season culminating with an extremely credible 3rd in A Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown, that off today's mark of 147.  He was actually made a fairly short price for his seasonal reappearance in The Sodexo Gold Cupo at Ascot, but having been held up that day off a very good gallop never looked like he would get competitive. Lto at Cheltenham showed a lot more, hunting up just off the pace he traveled much kinder and looked like he had come on plenty for that run, especially on a track that probably wouldn't have suited him.
All of his lifetime wins and best form have come running right handed, quite a few of which have been on flat tracks. Today he drops back into a grade where we know he can win, having spent the majority of last season and his early runs in his current one  mixing it in listed and graded company, he should find today's assignment much easier, 6-1 ish very fair considering.

GL if you get involved

Fair play to you Rob, not many would want to keep everything to one thread and put themselves up to be judges.

I am already involved in this one, so wish you even better today !!

IKDW  I eliminated both Chase The Spud & Master Hill from my reconings quite quickly, the mere fact both were targeted at a much more stamina laden tests than this(balloted out of Welsh National)

The 2nd preference is now their only option I'm afraid, they will run at Kempton or knowhere.

Perhaps surprising (to some) the Wadham's rarely let a well fancied horse go unbacked, so would a be very wary if there was any drift.

Personally I am all over Mountainous today, I thought he ran an amazing trial at Sandowwn lat time out hopefully with luck in running he will be bang there.

After your last post I ended up having a quick look at the 1.45 Chepstow and taken a small e/w on FOUROVAKIND 22-1 (5 places @365)

He steps up in class and trip which is a big ask but you can't fault the trainers recent form and I'm hopeful of a place if they all turn up .... gl all

Ta Swardean

Ta's

Swardean Robster gl

Yes Polab an extremely small return, can't win em all I suppose. Though I am smarting a bit regarding both Firebird Flyer(placed 25-1) & Yala Enki (won 11-4), didn't have a dime on the pair, a day I will put firmly down to experience.

20p