I too backed Leave At Dawn. Thought it had a huge chance. Ran abysmally - never in the race with a chance at any stage. Another Barry G loser on my book of Cheltenham bets, following Campeador's last hurdle fall in the Fred Winter.
Great Fields is another APost bet for me in The County Hurdle - another Barry G ride. He has to come good ar some stage surely !?

Result bet 42.

Leave At Dawn         Un Pl  -4pts (-£40)

Running Total              34.5pts (-£345)

Bet(s) 43,44 & 45.

1pt E.W. Tully East        16.50 Cheltenahm   33-1 generally

1pt E.W. The Saint James  17.30 Cheltenham   16-1 generally

1/2pt E.W. Double

I'm personally backing both with B365, 5paces and BOG.


Today the curtain comes down on an absolutely fabulous 4 days racing, a meeting that has been owned by the serious players, if you go by what the rails books have been telling us. I personally can't recall so many bankers/strongly fancied horses winning so many races with the ease they have done so in such a long time, but bookies potentially look to have an opportunity today to claw a little back. Their demise this week mainly down to the Mullins factor, he once again seems to have made the festival the Willie Mullins Show, but with some excellent cameo roles from Thistlecrack and Blacklion to make a fantastic meeting thus far.

Well it's my last chance to chalk up a winner, or even a return of sorts would be nice, with the last couple of events on today's cards catching my attentions for one reason or another. My short list in both races were quite long, so basically have decided to go with my first instincts in each race.

The penultimate race of today is the Martin Pipe conditional's handicap, where Squouateur is a very warm order to prevail, rightly so given his profile, jockey and recent form. At 4-1 I'd rather look elsewhere and thought that Tully East was no forlorn hope despite his big double digit price. Today's race despite it's competitiveness is nowhere near as hard as his last, the Grade 1 future champions race at Leapordstown, and ran a fairly nice race considering the deep opposition that day. I really think this horse will benefit from sitting back off an extremely good gallop, and I'm sure he will also appreciate the better ground.  Alan Flemming has been in the places with his only other runner so far, with Shane Shortall doing the steering that day also gets the nod this afternoon, who is at least one of the more accomplished riders in this line up. He could have a say at 33-1

The getting out stakes for many will be the lucky last, with quite a few very interesting runners within, and made my decision to narrow this down to one extremely difficult. However at the finish I opted for one of  the Jonjo runners, who is ridden by J.P.'s second jockey Mark Walsh. With the wealth of graded horses Willie Mullins has had at his disposal for numerous different races during the week,  I'm fairly sure that it's not just been the smaller trainers that have thought their only chance of a winner would be in the handicap's. I'm of the opinion even bigger stables such as Jonjo O'Neills may have pondered over such a scenario, and has maybe looked down the handicap route for a potentially smart horse to bag a race at this years festival. The Saint James is my idea of a horse that looks both over priced and underestimated, and riding arrangements maybe a rouse to push out the price on what potentially maybe a very smart prospect. Not many 5yorlds run in this race, and without knowing for sure if The Saint James had other engagements it's a factor well worth taking notice of. From only a small pool of 5yrolds to run in this race in the last 15 renewals there has been only one winner, but quite a few have hit the frame.

Having given Vyta Du Roc a decent race on his first start over the bigger obstacles he was pitched in to a very deep Grade 2, making novicey mistakes and in truth looking out of his depth in a race that has worked out fairly well won by Ar Mad. In his last race he fell 2 out when Barry Geraghty poked him in between the leaders to light him up, only to skew and come down just when he looked likely to stamp his authority on that contest. At least it safe guarded his mark in relation to this contest, with The Saint James having the potential to be a very smart chaser in the coming seasons he could have a big say in this despite his inexperience off just 142, and I'd not be surprised in the least if this was heavily punted come post time.

GL if you get involved

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=618454&r_date=2015-03-11
&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

Shortlisted The Saint James as well. Decent effort last year as well Robster with Bouvreuil going close this year ... gl

Nice place Robster gl ....

BOG as well 50-1 gl here ....

Some very, very interesting runners today at the toon....

Mwaleshi 15.25 around a 5-1 shot

Lackamon 16.00 16-1 available with a few....


.....Although I'm not going to include these couple in my thread (simply because I never include my course wagers on the very odd occasion I go racing), I will be backing the Sue Smith pair at Newcastle... I'm going to back them now and in a very small E.W. double... both coming back markedly in trip, both at the foot of the handicap with connections looking to exploit two very interesting handicap marks (one also claimer ridden) ..... Come on Sue, handbrake off

GL if you follow in

You took the words right out of my mouth!

Having  been out with the family today I've just got in to watch the replays, didn't see that much too think I was hard done by regards those particular races, just pleased they were there or there about's.

TNM,  I wish sometimes you would "mind your own Business", but I should be grateful someones reading the thread

Indeed polab, I come on this forum to talk horse racing not for infantile sh1te.  Whether I agree with the OP's or not, I love hearing and considering all angles of a race.

Result bet(s) 48,49,50 & 51.

Goken      Pl    - 0.125pt (- £1.25)
Anglophile Pl    + 0.375pt (+ £3.75)
Race Day   Pl    + 0.125pt (+ £1.25)
Treble Pl bit up + 2.75pts (+ £27.50)


Running total  - 25.9 pts (-£259)

Bet(s) 52 & 53.

1pt E.W. William Money 16.20 Haydock 10-1 generally
1pt E.W. Oscar Blue 14.35 Haydock 14-1 (when B365 reverted at 8.30)

Both bets struck with B365 , BOG.


It's Easter Saturday, which is nowadays associated with Haydock Park's finals day, with this years card as good as I've seen since it's inception in 2012. These type of events usually don't attract the higher ranked trainers, which is nice as it usually gives the trainers from lower echelons to have a decent payday on a Saturday for a change and also have a winner on the telly.

However, I will start with the horse that is not running in any of the finals races, but on today's good ground has underfoot conditions I'm convinced will help him outrun run his now double figured price with ease. William Money has ran in some fair staying races already this season, The Rehearsal and Eider at Newcastle, as well as a Borders National at Kelso, but despite looking to have a lively outsiders chance in all of those races he did not cut much ice in either. His biggest success to date was in the renewal of this contest last year, putting a disappointing run behind him in the Grimthorpe to spring a big surprise as the total rag of the field, but the manner he won was that of a hot pot favourite.

This season as a result of that performance he started off on a mark of 130, but has never at any stage thus far looked like he was capable of winning of any of his contested marks, Imo that very much down to the bottomless conditions that he's ran on in many of those races(bar his seasonal reappearance). Despite the fact he won the race last year on soft ground I really think he is a better animal on decent spring ground, and we are most definitely heading towards the time of year where he appears to come to himself, with his mark dropping to a very attractive 117 another factor that should aid his cause. His trainer Chris "Rambo" Grant looks to be turning a corner regards form, getting plenty placed and some winners already during this month, no surprise really as March over the years has been very kind to the stable regarding winners, lets hope William Money can add another.


Brian Ellison always seems to target this meeting over the years, and has had a fair degree of success. He has one in each race for owner P J Martin, it wouldn't surprise me if they weren't trying to emulate Richard Fahey's achievements on Ayr Gold Cup day, that little coup had been plotted a fair way out, my best guess for this one (if indeed it is one) was probably hatched at the turn of the year. Good luck to anyone throwing a few quid at a lucky 15 on those runners, but I personally am only interested in one of today's runners, Oscar Blue ridden by Will Kennedy.  Connections possibly did have Cheltenham aspirations for this horse, but in truth needed to win the qualifier he ran in pulling a cart to get a mark that would have gotten him in to the final. He qualified for a crack at today's race when finishing 3rd in a qualifier on the last day of February at Ayr, that race was the reason he went into my tracker. That day when ridden by Paddy Brennan Oscar Blue was not unduly persevered with when the front pair had went beyond recall in the 21F race, but still looked to have plenty left in the tank as he was nursed home under a "sympathetic" ride by his jockey, that a trip very much short of his optimum.

He has form lines with plenty, including point to point form with the strongly fancied Fingerontheswitch, and is entitled at today's weights to finish in front of that rival. He now gets his ground that has seen him win his NH flat race, maiden and novice hurdles, to go with that they have slung on the first time blinkers on and put Will Kennedy up who is 2 from 2 when riding him. 14-1 a very reasonable E.W. poke now tackling a trip that plays to his strengths.

GL if you get involved

I feel like I should congratulate you on these mammoth write ups btw, better man than me.

If the weather reports are correct the rain not arriving at Haydock until after 3pm...

Result bet(s) 52 & 53.

Oscar Blue     Un PL  -2pts (-£20)
William Money  Un PL  -2pts (-£20)

Running total       29.9pts (-£299)

Bet 54.

1pt E.W. Bollin Ace 16-1 SJ, 14-1 generally, BOG.

Today's Betfred hurdle series final is the 16.10 on the Sedgefield card, which looks a class 2 contest in name only, with the top rated horse being a fairly lowly 122 rated animal.  There does seem to be rather a few non-runners on the card, plenty because of the ground, I can only assume connections that have withdrawn were hoping for better ground than the currently described soft. I'd be amazed if it was anything like as soft as it has been during the winter months, and I'm hoping also the spring air can spark some improvement into the legs of Tim Easterbys Bollin Ace, who has drifted to a fairly backable price at 16-1 considering the now the non-runners.

His opening handicap mark of 110 looks to me as quite fair, especially given that he has ran in novice events where he has been in and around much higher rated horses, and to my eye has far from disgraced himself in all contests to date. His latest race in a novice event at Wetherby had a look of mission impossible about it, with the two who fought out the finish that day looking very smart prospects in the hurdling ranks, both I'd wager were 15-20lb better animals than the selection, that on heavy ground(GStick5.3). It's his penultimate race over C/D that has given me hope he's a better animal than 110, that was boxing day where the ground was heavy(GStick 5.0) and plugged on to finish a remote 3rd. The winner that day won his next couple of starts, with the runner up only finding the thriving Captain Redbeard too good on his next start, and the 4th home Nuts Well winning his latest race at Newcastle very nicely indeed. Today the GStick reading is 6.5 (that an indication to me it's not real soft winter ground), which can only be positive if you take into consideration He's by Bollin Eric, who appreciated a decent surface. Bollin Ace could well be a project for the future as the stock he's from usually progress and improve with time and racing, but I just can't help think there may be a big run in him today and at 16-1 it's just about worth the risk of finding out.

GL if you get involved.

What was the Rule 4 Deduction?

Result Bet 54.

Bollin Ace    Pl     + 2.2pts (+£22)

Running total      - 27.7pts  (-£277)

Bet 55.

1/2pt E.W. Portrait King 17.00 Fairyhouse 33-1 generally , use 5place forms and BOG.


Nothing much has caught my eye in terms of a bet on theses shores, but having gone over the Irish National for some time I'm willing to have a very small something on Portrait King.

At the age of 11 there won't be any dramatic improvement to be made, but in a race where you will need a horse that won't be inconvenienced by any hustle and bustle, will keep galloping and jumping when plenty others have cried enough, Portrait King will be high up on the short list.

At his age he possibly won't be catching many punters attentions, but double digit aged animals are more than capable of putting it up to there more junior counterparts, including twice in the last 4 renewals. Carrying less than 10-06 is also quite handy in a horses quest to succeed, 15 of the last 20 winners have done so, 10 of those 15 were under 10-03, a sure fire indicator that a featherweight and low BHA rating is a must(50% of last 10 winners were rated 132 or less). It's also a race that more often than not throws up a bigger priced winner, with 7 of the last 10 renewals going to horses that were sent off 20-1+. When you take into consideration some of that reading, Imo it takes quite a few out of the equation in today's event, in doing so it also gives the 33-1 Portrait King a better chance than you would have first assumed.

He now appears to be working himself into form, running a super race in the Eider behind Rocking Blues, who looked a bit of a handicap blot if truth be known. Connections come here today as it appears he won't get a run in the big one at Aintree, having looked likely to play a supporting role in that particular race last season before coming down 3 from home, at least showing that he is versatile as far as the ground goes, and surely won't be found out for the stamina test today's assignment will pose.

GL if you get involved.

good luck rob...you going to smash them books up soon.

knot in wood • April 2, 2016 9:37 AM BST
good luck rob...you going to smash them books up soon.

If only he'd followed, 'The Weasel'wise!

He can't stop banging in winners plus write-ups to die for!

winning * willing

Result bet(s) 55,56 & 57.

Wilde Inspiration     Un Pl -2pts (-£20)
Express Himself       Un PL -2pts (-£20)
Double                 Lost -1pt  (-£10)

Running total           -33.7pts (-£337)


Bet(s) 58,59 & 60.


1pt E.W.Joey's Destiny 15.30 Doncaster 18-1 (10p R4)

2pts E.W. Treasury Notes 17.15 Doncaster   4-1
1pt E.W. Burano                ^^^^        12-1

1/4pt  E.W. doubles

Total staked = 9pts (£90)

All bets struck with B365, BOG.


Well having been caught out by the Doncaster going yesterday I will hopefully learn by that mistake, but I do get the feeling that the going would have been far worse than that described in the updates on plenty of racing sites sooner than punters got to know. Going by the times and those of soft ground a couple of years ago, yesterday Imho, could only have been heavy all over, so like me I'm sure many a punter will feel aggrieved with ground possibly the biggest factor when formulating a selection.


Anyhow, rant over and soapbox away, at least we know where we stand regards the going today(hopefully).


Having gone through the card a few horses appeal to me today, they don't exactly fall into the category of "Mud-lark", but they all look to handle extremely testing ground just fine.


I will start with Joey's Destiny in the 15.30 on the card, who for a 6yrold sprinter has fairly low mileage on the clock,  with his BHA rating of 95 just about summing him up, but Imo is capable of a performance off this type of mark  which  his current odds don't really reflect. Six of his last three appearances have been on ground described as heavy, those contests where a couple of class 2 handicaps and a Group2 on champions day. He ran as well as to be expected in that Group2, with his final run of the season over 7F behind Withernsea a decent effort also, that a race that was better in terms of quality than today's. He has been mainly contesting  class 2 handicaps in his last couple of campaigns, but during the same time has contested 3 races at today's level(class3), which produces a form line of 2-2-3, not beaten by much in either of those races.  The 2 at the start of the sequence was in this contest in 2014, that on a soft surface, and can count himself a little unlucky not to have reached Flyman on the run to the line that day.  The one thing he will appreciate is a blistering pace, It's debatable how fast they are likely to go off in the early exchanges, but with Whozthecat  and Adams Ale both drawn high he is sure to have something like the desired pace to set things up for him, 18-1 on the high side considering.

A little later on the card at 17.15 there is a nice class 4 ten furlong race, where I have been drawn to the David O'meara pair of animals for quite different reasons. The most interesting of the pair is the switcher Burano, who is making his debut for the yard. We all know how good David O'meara is at getting other yards quirky/souring types to improve, Burano most definitely in that category. In his pomp he was a 100+ horse, keeping some fairly decent company in his time, but for a horse of that ability did not really win that many races, with his career total to date a fairly uninspiring 3 from 36. That said O'Meara could have purchased him at the right time(and the right price £20K), especially now he has fallen to a career low mark of just 83 (last 2 wins off 87 & 88), the yard also wasting no time in gelding him ahead of his seasonal bow.

He has been fitted with head gear in the past, but all of his wins and placed form have been achieved without it, and whether he will handle today's heavy ground is an unknown, but he has handled and won on soft and has an additional 3lb of his back through Shirley Birkett's claim. If the gelding procedure has "straightened him out", then he could be an extremely well handicapped horse, and could not be in better hands to exploit such a mark. 12-1 very fair Imo.


The stable companion to Burano, Treasury Notes is the choice of retained jockey Danny Tudhope, and it's not hard to see why. He, like Burano is another to have made the switch David O'Meara, this during the summer of last year, with the O'Meara magic quickly working, racking up a win and a couple of close up placed efforts from as many runs. His latest run was his seasonal reappearance, that on heavy ground over a mile at Redcar, looking to travel kindly on that holding ground for a decent way in the contest. He was beaten that day by a very lightly raced type hailing from the David Barron, just lacking the resoluiton of that horse in the closing stages, with daylight back to the third home. I'm fairly certain he will improve for stepping up in trip, and being by Lope De Vega out of a Saddlers Wells mare he should once again appreciate underfoot conditions. I'm sure that run will have brought him on considerably, and did win his race last season having been turned out quickly off the back of his run from a break(albeit a shorter break on different ground). He's my idea of the winner, with progress surely to be made this season from his current mark of just 77.


My bets where on prior to writing this up, so prices have changed because of N/R's.


GL if you get involved.