very poor today upsilon

No chewy, still plodding on with the venture.... Have been sitting in the back ground waiting for an investment to present itself... Nearly got involved with Krakatoa King at the prices yesterday in the Somerset National but didn't, but will have something tomorrow.

fancy sugar baron might be p wise,ive bet the horse ew @ 16s...good luck rob

.......Ascot looks to have a very intriguing grade 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 14.25, with plenty of the big stables having representatives.  Nicky Henderson is doubly represented, with Theinval and Sugar Baron, with the latter of those pair very much catching my attentions at his double figured price.


Sugar Baron looked a horse of huge potential when beating his stable companion in a bumper on course back in November 2014, the horse he beat himself also a nice prospect, acquiring a rating of 136 from the assessor in 3 subsequent runs from that contest. He then thrashed another very high class prospect on his hurdling debut, that horse none other than Ar Mad who has obviously went on to much bigger and better things over fences. He then went off 2-1 2nd fav to win a really well assembled field of novices over 21F at Kempton on good ground last March, with the way the race developed in the second half not really suiting, with Sugar Baron looking flat out with everything happening far too quick for him.


His seasonal reappearance was in a fairly warm 0-140 handicap hurdle over the same C/D on G/soft ground, again the way the race developed would not necessarily have suited, with the time showing pro-rata not great reading, no doubt those steady early fractions and a sprint with half a mile to go not playing to the strengths of Sugar Baron, and having made his way through the field could never get involved with the leading principles. He meets both Baron Alco & Simply A Legend (1st & 2nd) on much better terms, and will have come on plenty for that run. Despite being by Presenting he looks really at home when the mud's flying, and Baron Alco looks sure to be kept honest by plenty in tomorrows line up, with such an assured gallop being positive in relation to the chance of Sugar Baron. I'd be amazed if this horse isn't capable of an extremely bold show tomorrow off his 131, in fact he may well prove to be a blot on the handicap given his previous exploits and potential he still possesses, kick starting that climb in the handicap with a win tomorrow would be very welcome from a personal perspective.




It's Peter Marsh day at Haydock tomorrow, which has in days gone by  been won by some decent stayers, with the likes of  Little Owl, The Thinker and Jodami being previous winners that went on to taste Gold Cup success in the very same season.


I'm not convinced Algernon Pazham is up to the task of winning the Gold Cup
at Cheltenham this season, but I do think he's a horse yet to fulfill his potential he showed as a hurdler and a first season novice over fences. Connections obviously feel he has a decent level of stamina, finishing off last season by running in the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown, travelling into it nicely having been given a patient ride, but having got to within a few lengths of the leaders junping 2 out the stamina reserves ran dry, never the less finishing a very credible 7th.


His seasonal debut was over 3 miles at Bangor mid November, that a fair race and was trying to concede eventual winner What A Good Night 12lb and race fitness, that horse should also have won on his  reappearance but fell when going clear on the approach to the last, with Algernon Pazham going down on his sword very late on in that contest when getting nutted in the shadows of the post. His next run was over the fences at Aintree, and was made 7-1 favourite to prevail in quite a deep contest, but in truth he never really warmed to them, eventually softly unseating Ryan Hatch at Foinavon when still in with some sort of chance. Lto he ran in the Classic Chase at Warwick, and it was far too early in the race (approximately half way) to say if he'd have a say at the finish, but was at least going well within himself just off the leaders prior to jumping the fence well only to stumble to the ground after landing.


I'm of the opinion that coming back to a more conventional trip, along with the type of test the Peter Marsh provides will really suit this horse, as will the underfoot conditions he will encounter tomorrow. His form when running over tomorrows trip reads 1-1-R-3-2, with his form in soft ground or worse reading 2-2-1-2-R-3-2-F. Tomorrow through his availability Nigel enlists the help of his son to try and get the best out of this Milan gelding, and can boast a form line of   3-3-2-2-1-1-2 when in the plate.

The stats for 7yrolds aren't really that good, but having said that  Nigel Twiston-Davies is one of only a few handlers in the last 30 odd years to win with a horse in such an age bracket, and  I'm hoping Algernon Pazhar can emulate Earth Summits achievements of 1995. 

GL if you get involved

Freudian slip therobster.

Good luck tomorrow.

Bet(s)15 & 16.

1pt E.W. Bernadelli 15.35 Ascot 12-1 generally (I'm on with B365 1/4 odds 1-2-3)

1/2 pt E.W. Treble  Algernon Pazhar 12-1, Sugar Baron 14-1 & Bernadelli 12-1 (all B365 struck at 8.30am)

I had originally thought all of my investments for today had been placed last night, however having been perusing quite a lot of today's runners and riders to see if there was anything unusual regards riding arrangements and placement of horse I spent a fair bit of time viewing some video form, and just can't resist a little something E.W. on the Nick Richards trained Bernadelli.

For all the world he looks to have given this horse plenty of time to come into his own, and looks like very likely he could be just the type to develope into a reasonable class of chaser during the remainder of this and next season over this type of trip. It's really his last couple of starts that has precipitated a wager today, leading me to believe that this horse could be still fairly well in off today's mark of 132. His penultimate start at Bangor when ridden for the first time by today's jockey Craig Nichol was much more like it, and apart from a couple of very novicey mistakes when getting into the root of the fence his jumping Imo was solid enough. That race was over 3 mile in bottomless ground, with the race possibly been stole away from him as Callum Whillans poached plenty of ground as he lit up eventual winner and thourough stayer Union Jack D'ycy a good 5 furlongs from home, Bernadelli coming through late on but in no real position to challenge.

In his last race in the mud over  20F at Newcastle Craig Nichol looked a lad that had learned plenty from that first ride, keeping Bernadelli very handy for the duration of the race, this prior to Brenadelli tanking his way to the front just before turning in, looking as though he'd just joined the race at that point. Jumping the last he did have a couple of challengers coming both up his inside and down the outer, but once Craig Nichol shook the reins and gave him a persuader he lengthened away on the run to the line, and won in the manner that was probably better than it looked despite the below average clock. Today's race is obviously his hardest to date, but Nicky Richards must think enough of him to send him down, favouring this race as opposed to the Peter Marsh where he was also entered up.

GL if you get involved.

Total staked today: 8pts = £80

Keep the faith ! It's all about the long term

All part of the game mate. Tackling the big Saturday handicaps is often gonna end in a wipeout, but over a year you can finish miles in front.

Polab I much prefer your outlook to this thread than TNM, despite his truthful observations.

I blame chewy11 for encouraging you Robster

bet ?,?,? and ?

1pt E.W. San Benedeto 14.05 Ffos Las 9-1 generally BOG
1pt E.W. Ibis Du Rheu 15.00 Sandown 5-1 generally BOG
1ptE.W. Black Thunder 15.30 Sandown 6-1 generally BOG

1/4pt E.W. Trixie bet on above at said prices.

I'm personally on with B365, all at 1/4 odds.


Having been able to have quite a lengthy look at today's runners and riders both yesterday evening,  and again this morning, I'm fairly happy to take a chance with the horses I've backed. That said it's probably very much a case of putting all of my eggs in one basket, as I will be relying only on  Paul Nicholls trained horses to get my thread back into the black. We are usually accustomed to this trainer mopping up the big races on a Saturday week in week out, but this season for whatever reason it's not been the case, but Imo it may be a simple case of being a victim of his own success. He is among the winners of late, but is only getting winners at a rate of 10% in the last 14 days or so, way down on his 16% so far this season, and a proverbial mile off the 25%+ ratio of winners to runners he has been capable of over his career so far during many a season. The personnel may have change over the seasons, but I'd wager the yards ethos hasn't, and Imo it could be just a matter of time before a decent winning run is put together.


I'd like to think that winning run could start in the Welsh Champion hurdle, as I do quite like the chances of what appears to be his second string San Benedeto, ridden by Harry Cobden. He does need to step forward to figure today but given his very lightly raced improving profile that's  most definitely not out of the question. During his career to date he has been running against some fair novice types, in some quite nice races, having some decent success in a fair few of those events. The lad on board has been a major influence in backing this horse today, with Harry Cobden's talents alerting a fair few other trainers, having already been entrusted to ride such horses as Old Guard and Virak among others by Paul Nicholls in his fledgling career to date. The yard are no stranger to success in this race since it has been switched to Ffos Las and become a handicap, and are responsible for the last two winners, ironically both ridden by claiming jockeys. The only time he's encountered ground anywhere near to this afternoons forecast conditions was back in November at Wincanton over 20F, that day he looked to relish underfoot conditions, beating what were inferior but fair opponents in a facile manner. Lto at Newbury  he looked all over the winner deep up the home straight, but he quite possibly may have bumped into a potentially smart prospect in One Track Mind when outstayed close home, they in turn a mile clear of the remainder. 9-1 a very reasonable E.W. poke 

Over to Sandown for my other 2 selections, the first of which being Ibis Du Rheu, who judging by his half brother (Saphire Du Rheu) should appreciate the additional yardage this afternoon.  He ran in behind Yala Enki in his latest race, that being the Lanzarote at Kempton, where he was much too far out of his ground given the way the race panned out. At the weights against the first two home that day, Imo the performance was much better than his finishing position suggested, especially as the winner pinched 5 lengths at the start and the runner up sat handy off the un-pestered gallop Yala Enki dictated, so to get within 3 legths come the line after being ridden to sleep at the rear was Imo a humongous performance from such a young horse. Yala Enki again could set the fractions, but I think he may get competition for the lead which should at least help the gallop along, which will suit Ibis Du Rheu well. At the revised weights I have him in front of his Lto victor, and despite Baywing looking a horse improving at a rate of knots I also think he's capable of taking care of that particular horse. The danger may prove to be Medinas, who has been dropped 7lbs for time off and King put's a claimer on to aid his cause of a further 7lbs. However I'd be fairly hopeful that Ibis Du Rheu could be a very good horse in time, much better than his current mark of 139, maybe a potential star of the future who knows? 5-1 seems fair enough today Imo.

Half an hour later on the same card Black Thunder goes for the same combination, who Imo has been luckless during his campaign so far. He was creeping into proceedings when making an error subsequently rendered his chance impossible on his seasonal reappearance,  but Imo could easily have sneaked a place in that well contested Grade 3 contest at Cheltenham won by Sausalito Sunrise, when trying to concede weight all round. Again he was lumbered with top weight in the Welsh National, even despite Harry Cobden's 7lb claim, and was still within hailing distance of the leaders running down the back for the final time prior disposing of the  young lad, looking at the time to still be in with some sort of shout. He has subsequently been cut some slack by the assessor, so with trip, track and ground all looking fine, he's my idea of a horse that has a big run to come this season, hopefully today... 6-1 just about sums him up.

GL if you get involved.

Result(s) bets 17,18,19 & 20.

San Benedeto    N/R      0pts
Ibis Du Rheu    Lost  - 2pts(-£20)
Black Thunder   Lost  - 2pts(-£20)
Trixie bet      Lost  - 2pts(-£20)

running total - 13.5pts (-£135)

Disappointing yesterday regarding the way they ran, but we live to fight another day.

Bet 21.  2pts E.W. Apache Storm 14.40 Chelmsford 11-1 C & BV , BOG

Plenty of decent action over the sticks today, however I'm really sweet on a one racing at Chelmsford, that horse being Apache Storm trained by Mick Appleby.


It looks a fairly tightly knit handicap, but from a personal perspective I actually think she is the best handicapped in the line up at today's weights. Her form on an A.W. surface looks better than that of her turf runs, but it 's questionable whether 6F suits her better than today minimum. I'm personally not a subscriber to the latter in that statement, and think she has got more than enough toe to deal with 5F, especially on this track.

She started her current campaign back in Autumn, and having 4 in and out runs on turf she was switched to the A.W. for her latest 4 starts, and varying degrees of positives could be gleaned from some of those outings. It's both her course form past and present that has given me hope of a decent show today, with this time last year out running her odds to finish a close 2nd in a hotly contested fast track qualifier, with her very latest start in a much lowly handicap also a very good run all things considered, with Bosham and Saved My Bacon looking vastly improving specialists on the Chelmsford circuit, boosting the run of her 3rd home in that contest when finishing 1st & 2nd Nto over C/D.

The assessor has slowly eased his grip on her mark to the tune of 6lbs for her latest runs, and Mick Appleby has enlisted Josephine Gordon to aid the cause of an additional 5 very valuable pounds. It's a race that is littered with hold up performers, and can see Brother Tiger banging out in front and if Apache Storm can break on terms from the stall just to that horses outside should get a really nice toe into the contest just sitting off the pace(which could prove the place to be). Despite her relative inexperience against her senior weighing room colleagues, Josephine Gordon has not looked like such a claimer when riding some recent finishes, and also seems to have a decent awareness of how races are developing around her..... 11-1 looks very much on the generous side given the bigger picture.

GL if you get involved.

Rich Again ???    Apart from bets struck with on-course bookies when racing at Doncaster last Saturday, all my wagers will get posted on here this year.... Rich again popped up on my tracker but did not back it (whispering Ted put me off)

WD Rob
The fightback goes on

Tomorrow Wolverhampton put on quite a nice card for a mundane Monday, and a couple of horses within the card have swayed me into a bet, and given both of those horses respective profiles I'm very happy to be taking the 3-1 & 7-2 that are currently on offer.

Paddy's Motorbike looks like one of those horses that could probably progress from a handicapper to a pattern performer, and Imo stepping back up to this type of trip can only suit given his latest win on course 12F mid January.  I suspected he may have turned up in tomorrow's race, this very much with a view to tackling the 2mile conditions event at Lingfield on Good Friday, with tomorrows race also being won by John Reel for the same connections prior to taking up his Championship engagement.

Paddys Motorbike has a profile very different to that stable mate, but does look a horse well suited to an A.W. surface, and could have a fair way to go before he hits the ceiling of his ability. Often trainers don't get the credit they deserve for finding the right race for their horses, but it looks like David Evans has got his improving 4yrold in a race where he's getting a tidy 6lb allowance to exploit, that along with Miss Gordon's 5lb allowance, albeit she rode it to victory Lto. All 3 of his latest run's have been very solid performances, and plenty of the subsequent form to those races has worked out fairly well. Imo  Paddys Motorbike looks very much the one to beat, but tomorrow could well be the sighter for as already stated a crack at a very big purse on Good Friday, if the stable do have those type of aspirations then he should be a tough nut to crack tomorrow.

Later on the card Seychelloise goes for the Sir Mark and Luke Morris combination, with this filly looking one of the most improved in the yard. Imo returning to 7F along with the venue of Wolverhampton look key to her resuming her climb in the handicap, with her lifetime form in handicaps over 7F reading 1-2-2-1-2, the first 4 in the sequence being at Wolverhampton. Lto when finishing second to Mythmaker at Lingfield over 6 she was clawing back the advantage all the way to the line,  that viewing suggesting she looked desperately in need of a step back up in trip. Tomorrow looks like there could be a fair pace on, which will very much suit her style of racing, and the faster they go the better it will be for her at the business end. Sir Mark has his string in very healthy order presently, with his last 14 runners producing a not so shabby form line of 2-2-4-1-1-2-1-3-6-2-1-1-1-1. During her rise in the handicap Seychelloise has been no bigger than 3-1 for her last 6 contests, including a couple of well contested ones of tomorrow's class, I'm hopeful that all thing considered she can resume winning ways tomorrow.

GL if you get involved

Thought Ubla was the danger weight if leads ...

5th 22-1

Running total - 16.1pts -(£161)

Oh dear, oh dear!